The changing game? Passing yards at 193/game so far....

[djp14150]

17 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

 

covid 2020 season was an outlier due to no crowd noise in stadiums affected play and things like defense motivation with the noise and the ease to audible plays right before snapping the ball.

 

2 deep shell generally eliminates the deep ball but no teams plays it 100% of the time.

 

I don’t read as much into passing yards being down early in the season could be attributed to more inexperienced WBs of 3 yrs or less and teams being rusty if they changed receivers or offenses.  
 

I don’t know how many drops were there or just misses there were on 20+yd passing plays 

 

also what happens is the QB is changing to more mobile players who can run more and do designed runs which adds to the ground game

[boyst]

 i've been on this since 2020 and 2021. that we need to look at getting a team built to road grade with a big young running back for 2022 and beyond. i was a little premature but by 2026 i fully expect a team to bring out a big body running back to break these cover 2 safeties in half, to deploy a full back like Mike Alstott to body count while a James Cook type can move aross the field in passing routes but also follow the lead blocks to big gains.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

It's incredibly boring to watch. Sorry not sorry.

I appreciate good defense as much as the next guy, but this era is akin to watching "dry humpers" in the UFC who fight not to lose, versus fighting to win. 

[JP51]

I think the league will always be about evolution even it if it is evolving back to old ways... kinda like wallpaper and mustaches coming back and Mullet....er not them... anyways... I do think we are seeing a greater emphasis being placed on the run and getting bigger as teams have been built to stop the constant on slaught of air drills ... I think we are seeing this in what the Bills are doing with a great focus on the run, 12 personnel 2 TE sets, bigger recievers etc... and then of course it will all change back when the advantage shifts and teams incorporate their response to these changes. I feel like we may be a bit out front of this concept and that is good. 

[SoTier]

8 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I know you're being sarcastic but I've literally read dozens of posters here state that any offense that isn't built on Josh's arm is a misguided waste of his talents.

 

Personally I believe in an offense that doesn't overburden him... one that uses his superpowers only in good measure.

 

IMO, over-reliance on Josh is not a good thing.

 

 

What many fans don't understand is that JA's arm isn't his most important talent.  It's his drive to succeed that's enabled him to become one of the two best QBs in the NFL.  Anybody who doesn't think that Allen will do whatever he has to do to win football games --including handing the ball off more than he threw it -- hasn't watched him since his rookie season when he didn't know what he was doing but still rallied to his team.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, djp14150 said:

Covid season with no crowds and noise made it easier to do audibles at the snap

 

Coaches could probably yell them out from the sideline.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

29 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

It's incredibly boring to watch. Sorry not sorry.

I appreciate good defense as much as the next guy, but this era is akin to watching "dry humpers" in the UFC who fight not to lose, versus fighting to win. 

 

I remember when this first started to become popular 2 seasons ago, and allen wasn't having his best year.  Then they just doubled down and threw the ball even deeper and it started to work.  

 

I don't blame coaches for saying - I'm sick of these big chunk plays on deep overs below my single high safety.  More than half of QBs in the NFL now are mobile so man coverage can sometimes mean covering for like 2 routes per play, not to mention man coverage exposes you to QB runs.  2 deep safeties lets me keep eyes on the QB, but forces you to tackle and exposes you on the boundaries.  

 

I don't hate it because Allen has shown he can be patient, and is taking the free alerts based off the opposition alignment.  So far anyway, the free alert plays are generating like 8 yards a play and no one (diggs) has been dropping them consistently.  He also has the arm strength to drive into tight windows, and the eyes to manipulate them.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

It does seem like expecting teams to be able to go down the field slowly for 12 plays without making a mistake is a pretty good tactic right now. Some teams can do it a 2-3x times a games, others have trouble doing it once. There is also the added touch by defenses of really tightening up n the red zone and forcing FGAs. The athletes on the defenses are really able to cover a lot of the field and force penalties on the offensive line.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

It does seem like expecting teams to be able to go down the field slowly for 12 plays without making a mistake is a pretty good tactic right now. Some teams can do it a 2-3x times a games, others have trouble doing it once. There is also the added touch by defenses of really tightening up n the red zone and forcing FGAs. The athletes on the defenses are really able to cover a lot of the field and force penalties on the offensive line.

 

Bend but don't break has been around forever - the tightness of the red zone, a penalty or sack can derail the entire drive, and it forces an offense out of their game scripts.  

[Royale with Cheese]

We have only ran 107 offensive plays this year so far.

Game 1 was because our defense couldn't get off the field.

Game 2 was domination from the start to the end.  A defensive TD and a huge run for Cook.  

 

Once we start getting into a regular game as far as balance, all production numbers will increase and by a lot.

 

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/offense/downs/2024/reg/all

 

[Fleezoid]

This will continue until teams start moving safeties up and perhaps even utilizing what used to be the strong safety position more. After a while of that, the deep ball will open up again. To me it's the natural cycle of the game. As this current trend continues, I'm sure the league will implement some ridiculous rule to give receivers a bigger advantage instead of the letting this evolve organically. Nothing wrong with a RB busting a 12-15 yard run. 

[JohnNord]

20 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

The preseason narrative is overrated IMO.  I the drop in passing had yardage has to do with how teams are electing to play defense.  

A good example is weeks 

 

And yes, I do think the Bills were ahead of the curve and a reason could be how much 2 high safety coverage they’ve been seeing over the past seasons.  

[buffaloboyinATL]

20 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

Yeah, I believe that defenses have adjusted to limit the explosive passing attacks, so teams have adjusted to run centric offenses to compensate.  
 

it is definitely cyclical. I don’t know if that means we will see the increase in RB contracts as a result, but no way teams will be able to keep giving WR’s $30 million plus.  
 

My guess is that linemen will be the beneficiaries of this new focus. 

[colin]

i think we are short on data to know how much this is trending, but i agree that it is for sure trending.

 

bill parcels was asked years ago why the O's were beating the D's, and he said what is coming out of college at QB at WR is better than what is coming out at DE and corner.

 

what we are seeing is coaching and preparation technology along w the talent on D stepping up a lot.  the two deep shells, disguising coverage, and lots of schematic smarts in the front 7/6 just make things harder today than they were 4 years ago.

 

we have a vet we traded for, and a late round pick at cb right now, and between coverage scheme, being well prepared, and just hard nosed tough smart play they are doing things.  the old idea of a super man CB just being an island and erasing people is less relevant.  D seems to be a much headier thing now than 10 or ever 5 years back.

 

also, there was a lot of talk for years about how tackling was getting poorer.  I think we are seeing guys coming out and tackling much better than say 6 or 7 years ago.  the current meta of the d being agile hostile and mobile and keeping the play in front of them gives them such better chances for true angles and being square on square and wrapping up.

[Mat68]

Yes.  Smaller faster defenses.  Notice the best teams in the NFL.  49ers, Chiefs, Bills and Ravens.  Have fullbacks, multiple TEs and can hammer you on the ground.  
 

Buffalo, KC and Baltimore have probably the 3 best Qbs.  If you play any of them consistently with single high safety look you will get obliterated.  Teams started going to 2 high vs them and limited the explosives.  So it works vs those guys it will really work vs everyone else.  KC, Baltimore, and Buff have pivoted away from 3 wrs all the time to more “pro” sets.  Many teams are still lining up 3 wide and having very inefficient outputs.   
 

Buffalo is going to run the ball.  Force defenses to stop it.  They do Allen kills blitzes and single high safety.  I give Mcdermott immense credit.  When cover 3 and single was the norm they threw at an historic rate. Now teams are playing off with 2 deep they morphed into a running offense that can make defenses pay for it.  They also have safeties with ability to play in the box and more single high looks.

[Matt_In_NH]

The percentage of 2 high shell has sky rocketed this year, I don't have a link but was listening to a podcast talking about it.  That has been effective against Josh and Mahomes for a few years.  The solution is run the ball and shorter passes which both teams are doing more of.  You just have to papercut them to death.

[Bookie Man]

Also noticing the return of the natural fullback. Power football is back!! 

[Alphadawg7]

20 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

 

Its been proven over and over again that you win in the postseason in the trenches and by being able to run the ball effectively to compliment your passing game.  Teams who can't win in the trenches, who aren't physical, and don't have a reliable run game (does not mean being a run first or run dominant team) will struggle come postseason time.  

 

This is why I said all offseason that Grier and McDaniels will either be on the hot seat or flat out fired by seasons end.  They are a prime example of how just assembling a track team wont get you very far outside some flashy games against weak opponents.  And I am pretty confident even now in week 2 Grier is already on the hot seat.  

 

For all the dazzle of Mahomes, the majority of their offense and his game is based on damage with short throws near, at, or behind the LOS.  Even when they had Tyreek Hill his stats were more normal where his best season with Mahomes was more than 500 yards less than his averages in Miami.  Because the deep ball was not a big part of their game even with prime Hill and Kelce.  Hill did a lot of his damage on YAC.  They also always run the ball effectively and can turn that on when they need to.

 

Brady same thing.  His game was not deep shots, in fact, literally zero of his Super Bowl wins did he have a deep ball game with top end WR1's to throw too.  All of his Super Bowl wins came from top end TE play and smart, sure handed, and effective WR's that got to the open spots.  Brady was capable of hitting shots down field, but its not what they built their offenses around.  And the run game was also always a strong component of the Pats teams as well.

 

The more things change...the more they stay the same.  Build a bully in the trenches and you have the baseline for a championship football team.  

Edited September 17 by Alphadawg7

[WotAGuy]

The passing numbers will rise dramatically once I stop betting parlays with the QB at 200+ yards and 2+ TDs. 

[fergie's ire]

10 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I know you're being sarcastic but I've literally read dozens of posters here state that any offense that isn't built on Josh's arm is a misguided waste of his talents.

 

Personally I believe in an offense that doesn't overburden him... one that uses his superpowers only in good measure.

 

IMO, over-reliance on Josh is not a good thing.

 

I agree.  As several have pointed out the idea is to lure defenses close to the line of scrimmage and THEN go over the top once they do.  The problem for many teams is that they may be able to lure the defenses but once they do they don't have Josh Allen at QB to go over the top.  The question people have is whether the Bills have the receivers to do it.  I think they do it and we will see this offense go off through the air one of these weeks.