The changing game? Passing yards at 193/game so far....

[Alphadawg7]

19 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

The passing numbers will rise dramatically once I stop betting parlays with the QB at 200+ yards and 2+ TDs. 

 

This is the first year I did NOT place a Josh Allen MVP bet or a McD COY bet.  I did that intentionally because I actually felt like both could be really in play this year if the Bills offense plays at a high level and Bills exceeded the lowered expectations with such a tough schedule.

 

So I figured I would help those odds by NOT betting on them...and yes, that was a real consideration and conscious decision I intentionally made 😂

[Drew21PA]

Here come the phantom PI’s so that WR can do whatever they want to get open 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

Here come the phantom PI’s so that WR can do whatever they want to get open 

 

Actually one of the reasons for the defensive rebound has been that it's not easy to get a PI or illegal contact call against you if you are a DB.  The league has gotten very lax with contact in the secondary.   Contact that Gene Steratore now says didn't impact the play would have earned a flag back when the Bills were going to SB's.   I'm not saying I dislike the way they call it now but DB's are just hanging all over receivers.    Back when QB's were getting murdered in the pocket and WR's could be killed at the catch point WR's were relatively free to roam without the ball.  

 

 

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The percentage of 2 high shell has sky rocketed this year, I don't have a link but was listening to a podcast talking about it.  That has been effective against Josh and Mahomes for a few years.  The solution is run the ball and shorter passes which both teams are doing more of.  You just have to papercut them to death.

Most defensive coaches are tough guys.  They dont stomach being run at.  Run effectively for them to adjust.  With Dorsey and Daboll they didnt have the ability to move people upfront.  You start gashing them they will adjust.  Brady finds a run vs you he will spam it until you stop it.  When you do thats when more things open up.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The percentage of 2 high shell has sky rocketed this year, I don't have a link but was listening to a podcast talking about it.  That has been effective against Josh and Mahomes for a few years.  The solution is run the ball and shorter passes which both teams are doing more of.  You just have to papercut them to death.

 

The allen and mahomes effect is... even when you call the right defense, match up well, put pressure on them.  They still convert because they're freaks.  

[Matt_In_NH]

4 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Most defensive coaches are tough guys.  They dont stomach being run at.  Run effectively for them to adjust.  With Dorsey and Daboll they didnt have the ability to move people upfront.  You start gashing them they will adjust.  Brady finds a run vs you he will spam it until you stop it.  When you do thats when more things open up.  

That is the theory anyway.........unless it is effective.  For the Bills it worked vs the Dolphins, they ran really well but did not score. I agree if you are super effective they will change and other things will open up.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

3 hours ago, WotAGuy said:

The passing numbers will rise dramatically once I stop betting parlays with the QB at 200+ yards and 2+ TDs. 

Man I feel this. I don’t think I’ve won a single parlay this year. Aiming too high

[NewEra]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

This is the first year I did NOT place a Josh Allen MVP bet or a McD COY bet.  I did that intentionally because I actually felt like both could be really in play this year if the Bills offense plays at a high level and Bills exceeded the lowered expectations with such a tough schedule.

 

So I figured I would help those odds by NOT betting on them...and yes, that was a real consideration and conscious decision I intentionally made 😂

Same here bro.  We CAN control our own destinies!!

[LABILLBACKER]

On 9/16/2024 at 12:07 PM, Don Otreply said:

McDermott and Brady like to run the ball…, 

 

maybe just maybe we are on the correct side of the curve…, 

....anything that minimizes Josh's int's and we keep winning with a run control offense is fine with me.  There will be chances to go deep if mvs & Josh can get on the same page.

[Don Otreply]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

....anything that minimizes Josh's int's and we keep winning with a run control offense is fine with me.  There will be chances to go deep if mvs & Josh can get on the same page.

This ^^^, 

 

on that long pass to Scantling it looked to me as if he lost track of the ball, hopefully they get in sinc soon, 

[Rockinon]

I really like what the Bills are doing. If the trend is going to a higher percentage run vs pass, the Bills are on the right track. It's not as simple as defenses using 2 high safeties or guys being bigger or smaller though, if you can dominate on the ground, you absolutely should.

 

Things I like about the Bills offense:

 

• a QB that can run and pass
• a really good RB room, all can rush, all can catch
• screens are working after years of watching them repeatedly getting blown up(I consider these to be an extension of the run game)
• the runs are setting up some nice play action passes
• run game is unpredictable, could be a strait hand off up the middle, bounced outside, an RPO, a jet sweep or simply a sneak to get short yardage
• the OL is bigger and stronger plus not afraid of bringing in a 6 OLman
• Even when it's a pass play and nothing is open Josh can do damage on the ground
• the use of motion to determine what the defense is in
• Josh's ability to change the call at the line
• the run has been pretty efficient so far
• 2 TEs on the field that make the threat of run greater, but all of our TEs can catch too

These are just focused on the run game. But there is a lot to like about the pass game too. Bottom line is that the Bills can simply spread the ball around and never let a defense pin their ears back and attack. They can never figure out where the ball is going. I look at a teams like Houston/Arizona and the talent there, but in my humble opinion, they are still playing checkers and the Bills are playing chess. The Bills may be running the ball more, but I believe it has more to do with countering what the defense is doing and offensive efficiency. The everyone eats playbook is making the offense better and I think they are just scratching the surface of what this offense can be. Let's hope so and Go Bills!

Edited September 17 by Rockinon

[TheFunPolice]

I thought it was just me. Every game I watch it seems like the QBs barely crack 200 yards

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I really like what the Bills are doing. If the trend is going to a higher percentage run vs pass, the Bills are on the right track. It's not as simple as defenses using 2 high safeties or guys being bigger or smaller though, if you can dominate on the ground, you absolutely should.

 

Things I like about the Bills offense:

 

• a QB that can run and pass
• a really good RB room, all can rush, all can catch
• screens are working after years of watching them repeatedly getting blown up(I consider these to be an extension of the run game)
• the runs are setting up some nice play action passes
• run game is unpredictable, could be a strait hand off up the middle, bounced outside, an RPO, or simply sneak to get short yardage
• the OL is bigger and stronger plus not afraid of bringing in a 6 OLman
• Even when it's a pass play and nothing is open Josh can do damage on the ground
• the use of motion to determine what the defense is in
• Josh's ability to change the call at the line
• the run has been pretty efficient so far
• 2 TEs on the field that make the threat of run greater, but all of our TEs can catch too

These are just focused on the run game. But there is a lot to like about the pass game too. Bottom line is that the Bills can simply spread the ball around and never let a defense pin their ears back and attack. They can never figure out where the ball is going. I look at a teams like Houston/Arizona and the talent there, but in my humble opinion, they are still playing checkers and the Bills are playing chess. The Bills may be running the ball more, but I believe it has more to do with countering what the defense is doing and offensive efficiency. The everyone eats playbook is making the offense better and I think they are just scratching the surface of what this offense can be. Let's hope so and Go Bills!

Good post-  I would add beastly run blocking WRs to that list of likes.  McB certainly had that in mind this offseason and I think it has been paying off so far.  Hollins, Coleman, MVS and Samuel are all plus run blockers for the position. Even short armed Shakir is effective 

[Mat68]

3 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

That is the theory anyway.........unless it is effective.  For the Bills it worked vs the Dolphins, they ran really well but did not score. I agree if you are super effective they will change and other things will open up.

Mcdermott plays pass 100% especially vs Mcdaniel and Reid.  Historically, when they need a play or a jolt they pass.  I think that is what makes Mcdermott different than many defensive minded head coaches. 

[Mat68]

56 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

I really like what the Bills are doing. If the trend is going to a higher percentage run vs pass, the Bills are on the right track. It's not as simple as defenses using 2 high safeties or guys being bigger or smaller though, if you can dominate on the ground, you absolutely should.

 

Things I like about the Bills offense:

 

• a QB that can run and pass
• a really good RB room, all can rush, all can catch
• screens are working after years of watching them repeatedly getting blown up(I consider these to be an extension of the run game)
• the runs are setting up some nice play action passes
• run game is unpredictable, could be a strait hand off up the middle, bounced outside, an RPO, a jet sweep or simply a sneak to get short yardage
• the OL is bigger and stronger plus not afraid of bringing in a 6 OLman
• Even when it's a pass play and nothing is open Josh can do damage on the ground
• the use of motion to determine what the defense is in
• Josh's ability to change the call at the line
• the run has been pretty efficient so far
• 2 TEs on the field that make the threat of run greater, but all of our TEs can catch too

These are just focused on the run game. But there is a lot to like about the pass game too. Bottom line is that the Bills can simply spread the ball around and never let a defense pin their ears back and attack. They can never figure out where the ball is going. I look at a teams like Houston/Arizona and the talent there, but in my humble opinion, they are still playing checkers and the Bills are playing chess. The Bills may be running the ball more, but I believe it has more to do with countering what the defense is doing and offensive efficiency. The everyone eats playbook is making the offense better and I think they are just scratching the surface of what this offense can be. Let's hope so and Go Bills!

I think at the core it is as simple as looking at how defenses are defending Allen.  Let’s get more stout in the interior.  Torrence, Mcgovern at center and Edwards.  Are people movers.  Morse was not.  Helps with the interior rush.  The type that effective Allen the most.  Helps the run and passing.  
 

How far can we take stretch nickel.  Bigger body wrs. Coleman, Hollins and MVS are all over 6-3.  With knox and Kincaid?  Jumbo Te 6th olineman?  Buffalo’s offseason and player acquisition has been strategic.

[hondo in seattle]

On 9/17/2024 at 5:10 AM, djp14150 said:

 

covid 2020 season was an outlier due to no crowd noise in stadiums affected play and things like defense motivation with the noise and the ease to audible plays right before snapping the ball.

 

2 deep shell generally eliminates the deep ball but no teams plays it 100% of the time.

 

I don’t read as much into passing yards being down early in the season could be attributed to more inexperienced WBs of 3 yrs or less and teams being rusty if they changed receivers or offenses.  
 

I don’t know how many drops were there or just misses there were on 20+yd passing plays 

 

also what happens is the QB is changing to more mobile players who can run more and do designed runs which adds to the ground game

 

It's true that no team plays two deep all the time.  But it certainly seems teams play it more than before.

And the most common defensive alignment nowadays is the Nickel.  Teams last year lined up in the Nickel something like 2 out of every 3 plays.  Back in Kelly's day, they called the Nickel a "pass prevent" defense.   By the standards of the 1990s and before, today's teams are in a pass prevent defense most of the time.  

 

Maybe we'll see more teams line up in conventional 3-4 and 4-3 defenses now.  Which would be great for Josh.  

[skibum]

It’s a small sample size and the Fins pretty much laid an egg. There will be big passing games when the opponent starts scoring. Who cares anyway, I want wins, not passing yards!

[mrags]

On 9/16/2024 at 3:07 PM, Don Otreply said:

McDermott and Brady like to run the ball…, 

 

maybe just maybe we are on the correct side of the curve…, 

Except they are going against the curve completely on the defensive side of the ball with undersized LBers 

[Don Otreply]

21 minutes ago, mrags said:

Except they are going against the curve completely on the defensive side of the ball with undersized LBers 

I don’t think D Williams or Cole Bishop are under sized 

 

anyway, it’s more important to have the size taken care of on the offense first, 

[BigAl2526]

The game against the Jags will be interesting.  Their defensive coordinator is fond of man coverage.   That usually means loading the box to try and stop the run and bring pressure (blitzing) on passing plays.  It will be interesting to see how that affects the Bills' strategy on offense.