The changing game? Passing yards at 193/game so far....

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

[MJS]

Oh, it is for sure a trend. Teams have begun to change their rosters because of it already, investing more in heavier personnel.

 

 

 

[LabattBlue]

3 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

Except 2020 was the exception.  If you look at the last 10-15 years, the norm is somewhere between 22-23.5.  
 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-league-average-points-per-game-by-year-2001-to-2023

[C.Biscuit97]

2 high safety look. Best way to beat that is run the ball and pick them apart underneath forcing the Ss to come up. 
 

But no one likes running the ball anymore. 

[Logic]

The NFL is a league where a trend dominates, then teams figure out how to counter it, then teams figure out how to counter THAT, and it goes back and forth, on and on.

Most recently, rule changes and the migration of the spread and Air Raid offenses to the NFL (as well as the proliferation of 7-on-7 camps and private QB tutors) had passing production way up, so teams got lighter and faster on defense and started employing two-deep shell coverages to take away the passing game. 

Offenses, in turn, beefed up and focused on their run game and short passing game and finding tight ends that are difference makers.

As defenses get bigger to combat THIS evolution and have to begin squatting on the short stuff and stopping the run again, more new offensive innovations and evolutions will push the needle back in the other direction. And on and on, ad infinitum.

[Big Turk]

Bills have been leaders in that under Brady...lead the NFL in rushing percentage at 53.2% since he has been here...basically turning into the early Steelers under Roethlisberger or the 2003 Ravens.

Edited September 16 by Big Turk

[Don Otreply]

19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

2 high safety look. Best way to beat that is run the ball and pick them apart underneath forcing the Ss to come up. 
 

But no one likes running the ball anymore. 

McDermott and Brady like to run the ball…, 

 

maybe just maybe we are on the correct side of the curve…, 

[Avisan]

14 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

McDermott and Brady like to run the ball…, 

 

maybe just maybe we are on the correct side of the curve…, 

No no no, forcing big play ball against Cover 2 shells is clearly the innovative offense we need!  We have Josh Allen!

 

Why comfortably win games when you can throw 40 times per game and force your franchise QB to be superman instead?

 

 

[Mikey152]

Bill Belichick predicted this was gonna happen years ago. Unfortunately for him, his qb and wr were trash that couldn’t convert third downs.

[Blackbeard]

These sorts of changes and trends are all cyclical. 

 

It's like football economics.

[Big Turk]

The Bills have been at the forefront of this trend, in some ways the leaders of it. Since Brady took over they have been running at a league high 53.2%, much of it due to the fact teams are giving them 2 high looks to try and keep explosive plays in check from Allen and light boxes that favor them running the ball.

 

Basically they try and run teams out of that coverage so they can then attack them down field once they bring a safety down in the box to stop the run.

[Richard Noggin]

19 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

The Bills have been at the forefront of this trend, in some ways the leaders of it. Since Brady took over they have been running at a league high 53.2%, much of it due to the fact teams are giving them 2 high looks to try and keep explosive plays in check from Allen and light boxes that favor them running the ball.

 

Basically they try and run teams out of that coverage so they can then attack them down field once they bring a safety down in the box to stop the run.

 

The early season trend seems to be that defenses are generally being more stubborn in sticking with the split safety/nickel coverages and alignments, preferring death by a thousand cuts, rather than going out in a blaze of glory. Keeps the game within striking distance, goes the thinking?

[Sierra Foothills]

9 hours ago, Avisan said:

No no no, forcing big play ball against Cover 2 shells is clearly the innovative offense we need!  We have Josh Allen!

 

Why comfortably win games when you can throw 40 times per game and force your franchise QB to be superman instead?

 

 

 

I know you're being sarcastic but I've literally read dozens of posters here state that any offense that isn't built on Josh's arm is a misguided waste of his talents.

 

Personally I believe in an offense that doesn't overburden him... one that uses his superpowers only in good measure.

 

IMO, over-reliance on Josh is not a good thing.

 

[GASabresIUFan]

The Bills have averaged 28 points per game since Brady became OC.  Just saying!

[hondo in seattle]

10 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

 

I think this is interesting.

I've been saying for a few years now that if I was a HC and didn't have a franchise QB, I'd build an offense around a RB.  The defense McD runs, with five DBs and only 2 LBs, would have been called a "pass prevent" defense in the old days.  And what do you do against a pass prevent defense?  You run.  

 

To make the run game even more attractive, today's LBs are not nail-eating brutal killers like Dick Butkus, Concrete Charlie Bednarik, or the other big thumpers from days gone by when the NFL was a running game.  They're more like safeties these days with better coverage skills than tackling, faster than they are strong.  Give me Cookie Gilchrist and I'll give you 6 yards, a cloud of dust, and some broken bones in the defensive second layer.  

 

The changes are frustrating to me because we have an amazing QB with a howitzer for an arm.  I want to see him sling the ball downfield but that's not what defenses are allowing these days.  Defenses are built to prevent the pass and so it seems the offensive pendulum is starting to swing in the other direction.  

 

Last night I watched the Chiefs Bengals play.  Reid is one of the best pass game coordinators of all time.  Mahomes is one of the best QBs.  Yet KC ran more than they passed.  Mahomes only had 151 yards.  And the Chiefs won.  

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I keep hearing that teams are deploying more 2 deep coverages like the Bills. Offensively, teams seem to combat it by running more. These changes don't happen over night, but over the last few years we've gone down in scoring from almost 25ppg in 2020 trending straight to just over 21ppg. So far this season teams are only averaging 193 yards passing/game (lowest since 1992). And, combined with that, teams are averaging about 125 yards per game rushing, this would be the highest since 1987!

 

I know it's only 2 weeks in and defenses may be ahead somewhat. Also, people have been talking about how little QBs have played in the preseason being a factor. However, as I mentioned things have been trending this way for awhile. What say you all? could the Bills be ahead of the curve in promoting this style of ball? Do you agree that the eyeball test seems to matchup with the niumbers?

 

 

Wouldn't say the Bills are ahead, but we were a bit ahead the last year or two. At this point, the trend has caught up to the few who got out ahead.

 

This is the swing of the pendulum. Many started to go on about how offenses have taken over the game, and that nobody should hire a defensive coach. But the pendulum was still swinging and Ds figured out how to attack the high-flying stuff with two-deep variations.

 

Offenses got ahead a few years ago, defenses figured out it out.

 

Your numbers are very interesting. Hadn't realized it had gone so far as your stats show it has. Good find. Thanks! We're all at the lowest since '92 and highest since '87!! Hunh!!!

Edited September 17 by Thurman#1

[machine gun kelly]

15 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

2 high safety look. Best way to beat that is run the ball and pick them apart underneath forcing the Ss to come up. 
 

But no one likes running the ball anymore. 

This has been going on evolving as defenses get smaller and faster the pass diminishes and rising goes up.  Who teams choose for players and what attributes they possess will evolve one way or another.  I’ve been wondering how many years before the next change.  It’s a good take Biscuit.

[finn]

16 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Bills have been leaders in that under Brady...lead the NFL in rushing percentage at 53.2% since he has been here...basically turning into the early Steelers under Roethlisberger or the 2003 Ravens.

A running team equipped also with a superstar at quarterback. Watch out. 

[nucci]

too many young QBs not ready. They look at their 1st read then scramble and run.

[djp14150]

17 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Except 2020 was the exception.  If you look at the last 10-15 years, the norm is somewhere between 22-23.5.  
 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-league-average-points-per-game-by-year-2001-to-2023

Covid season with no crowds and noise made it easier to do audibles at the snap