A small part of the Chiefs secret sauce.

[Ballhawk]

1 hour ago, Allen2Moulds said:

the thing that is most disturbing is the late flags. Mahomes throws pick, count to 2, see flag gets thrown

We count to ten in my home 😀 In fact, on the last play last Thursday, you could see Josh on the sideline scanning the field for flags for like 5 seconds.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, TBBills Fan said:

That makes sense and can certainly account for a few of them. I'd venture to guess that is only a small handful. 

 

Turnovers can be up to a 14 point swing. 

 

They are indeed well coached and take advantage of all their opportunities, but the element of luck. Seems to apply to them with injuries and penalties 

I don’t think a big chunk of them are free play type penalties…I really want to look into this and review them all myself but I’m not sure how to approach it haha.  There have been quite a few where the refs throw the flag super late like that jets pick last year.
 

 They could make it a lot less suspicious-seeming if they threw the flag when the supposed contact happened, but with mahomes for whatever reason the flags seem to come out post pick far too often

 

the refs seem really impressionable to mahomes’ whining 

Edited September 16 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[TBBills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t think a big chunk of them are free play type penalties…I really want to look into this and review them all myself but I’m not sure how to approach it haha.  There have been quite a few where the refs throw the flag super late like that jets pick last year.
 

 They could make it a lot less suspicious-seeming if they threw the flag when the supposed contact happened, but with mahomes for whatever reason the flags seem to come out post pick far too often

I tend to agree with this. I don't have any data to support it other than it's just what I tend to notice when watching chiefs games

 

I suppose looking at all the defensive penalties called against them is a good way.  Whoever dug this number up may have additional data. 

 

[Success]

I'm not sure if it's so much that KC knows how to win games as it is that they have that "aura" now.  We watched this so many years w/ the Pats - other teams make the crucial mistakes at the end of games.  There is almost an intimidation factor there, where teams can almost feel the sense of deja vu and it gets in their head.

 

That's certainly true when we play KC in the playoffs now.

 

2 games in, I don't think KC is any better than the Bills are. If they are, it's marginal. It's the psychological hurdle we have to get over.

 

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, Success said:

I'm not sure if it's so much that KC knows how to win games as it is that they have that "aura" now.  We watched this so many years w/ the Pats - other teams make the crucial mistakes at the end of games.  There is almost an intimidation factor there, where teams can almost feel the sense of deja vu and it gets in their head.

 

That's certainly true when we play KC in the playoffs now.

 

2 games in, I don't think KC is any better than the Bills are. If they are, it's marginal. It's the psychological hurdle we have to get over.

 

Bills played much better the first two games than the Chiefs. 

[Herc11]

Helps when you're team doesn't get called for holds like these.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[QB Bills]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

No, they make some mistakes. Mahomes threw 2 INT's. He often turns it over. And he has a ton of INT's that are dropped. They just have the talent and ability to overcome mistakes. Brady and the Patriots were less mistake prone.

I meant more so at the ends of close games. 

[Warriorspikes51]

I was actually thinking KC wouldn't get the breaks/calls this season.

Guess that theory is already debunked haha 

 

Pats Dynasty now Chiefs Dynasty never seems to get called for Holding on either side of the ball

Allows them to be more "physical" competitive advantage 
 

Maybe I'm wrong and the data doesn't back the claim....but it really feels that way week to week 

Edited September 16 by Warriorspikes51

[Turk71]

NFL argued in court that they are an 'entertainment' business; they have argued in court that they don't have to be fair, they are just entertaining.  Taylor Swift at the game is worth $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ with 250,000,000 Swifties......do the math.

Edited September 16 by Turk71

[eball]

7 hours ago, djp14150 said:

mathematics….

 

after week 1 you have 16 1-0 teams 

if Winners played each other after week 2 you would have 8 2-0 teams

after week 3 4 left

week 4 2 left

 

 

in the nfl with most teams the margins between playoffs and not is marginal. Early inn-the seasons team have something to fight for. By game 7 or so separation  can occur with some luck in getting 5-2or better or 2-5 and worse.

 

the current 2-0 teams sre

 

Bills ( cards, fins)

Steelers ( falcons, broncos)

texans ( colts, bears)

chargers ( panthers, raiders)

chiefs ( bengals, ravens)

Vikings ( giants, 49ers)

Alvin and the  chip-monks ( panthers, cowboys)

Bucs ( commanders, lions)

Seahawks ( broncos, patriots)

eagles* (1-0 play tonight) ( packers, vs falcons)

 

 

 

 

The paper tigers are the Steelers, Texans, and Seahawks.  They've beaten bad teams.  Everyone else has at least one good win (the Bills and Chiefs have two).

 

After watching Houston last night I'm not convinced they are any better than 5th in the AFC.

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Herc11 said:

Helps when you're team doesn't get called for holds like these.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If that first play is NFL holding, every OL holds on every play. The league has let minor stuff like that go for years now. The guard let the DT go when he tried to pull away which is all that officials are looking for.

 

The 2nd play, I would bet Hendrickson used a rip move which often leads to a position like that and it is not holding by rule. It becomes holding if the offensive lineman brings the pass rusher to the ground in the process of the hold, or if he holds on too long while the pass rusher has a clear and direct line to the QB.

 

https://www.sbnation.com/23577117/2023-nfl-playoffs-chiefs-bengals

 

90% of complaints about penalties are people that clearly don't understand the penalty. Roughing the passer is the only penalty that I regularly see called incorrectly, that is the one the NFL still needs to get right.

 

As to the thread subject - others have said it, it comes down to teams getting intimidated in the moment and making brain fart mistakes. I believe I read that the DB who had the game losing penalty on 4th and 16 is a day three rookie. It's a mistake to have that caliber of player in that situation to begin with, and ultimately the moment was too big for him and he flinched. You can't flinch. The Chiefs already established themselves as a dynasty so the pressure is off.

 

Oh and Burrow kind of sucked yesterday. "Burrowhead." Lol. His accuracy was all over the place and he rewarded his defense getting an unreal INT by coughing up the ball and watching the defender run it back for a TD. He didn't meet the moment. He'll always have that one AFCCG when Mahomes randomly threw up all over himself though.

[Saxum]

2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I was actually thinking KC wouldn't get the breaks/calls this season.

Guess that theory is already debunked haha 

 

Pats Dynasty now Chiefs Dynasty never seems to get called for Holding on either side of the ball

Allows them to be more "physical" competitive advantage 
 

Maybe I'm wrong and the data doesn't back the claim....but it really feels that way week to week 

 

I used to work with player who used to be on New England practice squad.

A great deal of New England's success was film study on each Zebra knowing what they called and what they let go.

They were also teaching players to be aware of Zebra position and not have violations not seen by Zebras while doing it.

 

Not sure what Chiefs are doing to snew calls.

[90sBills]

50 minutes ago, Punching Bag said:

 

I used to work with player who used to be on New England practice squad.

A great deal of New England's success was film study on each Zebra knowing what they called and what they let go.

They were also teaching players to be aware of Zebra position and not have violations not seen by Zebras while doing it.

 

Not sure what Chiefs are doing to snew calls.

Taylor Swift’s selfies with refs’ grandkids. 

[ToGoGo]

There is no secret sauce. 
 

2024 begins the Chiefs gradual decline and the Bills gradual ascension. 
 

What people miss when they dismiss all these otherworldly Allen and McDermott stats is that they are DUE. 
 

Life is cycles and balance. When you’ve over performed and did not win, and somebody else has underperformed and won, the roles will soon be switched. 

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

There is no secret sauce. 
 

2024 begins the Chiefs gradual decline and the Bills gradual ascension. 
 

What people miss when they dismiss all these otherworldly Allen and McDermott stats is that they are DUE. 
 

Life is cycles and balance. When you’ve over performed and did not win, and somebody else has underperformed and won, the roles will soon be switched. 

This sounds more wishful than analytical. 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

Just like the Brady patriots, you can’t just outlast them, you have to bury them. 

 

 

Yeah, this for those old Pats and these Chiefs.

 

Having a Brady, a Mahomes, or for that matter an Allen means you're always in one-score games and even two-score games.

 

IMO one other thing those teams did is they had plenty of average role players but rarely a genuine hole. The Chiefs don't. The Pats didn't. And except last year on the defense after all those injuries, we don't either.

[Bookie Man]

HOF QB

Great defensive HC/DC

Clutch Kicker

 

Sounds like NE all those years.

[Sierra Foothills]

16 hours ago, HOUSE said:

You also need a top 5 female singing star that claps at everything.

 

Taylor Swift is the Sean McDermott of pop stars.

 

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, Chaos said:

Championship teams generally control most of the games and often beat up on the opponent.  They typically have better talent and are better prepared for games. 

 

But in the NFL, the lack of undefeated teams, highlights that this is very tough to do every week. 

 

Yesterday Joe Burrow put up a 103 passer rating. P. Mahomes was at 80.  In 95%+ of games a passer rating gap that big would result in a loss for the lower rated team. 

Yesterday the Chiefs had 3 turnovers to the Bengals one turnover.  Conventional wisdom is that it is nearly impossible to win a game with a minus 2 turnover ratio.  (Statistically teams with a +2 margin win 81% of games)

Yesterday the Chiefs over came both of these situations and still found a way to win. In my casual observation, the Chiefs seem to find ways to win, more often than anyone else in situations where they should lose.   I think it is tough to statisicially assess this, because in all but about 3-4 games a season, the Chiefs are going to statiscially out match opponents. 

 

Note- Flip side of this is the Bengals finding a way to lose a game they should have won. 

The bold part above is the main reason the Chiefs win championships.  But I think the rest of the post points out a small contributer. 

 

 

Check this out from a recent Athletic article. IMO it also gets at a really really deep and unappreciated reason for their success:

 

"We shouldn’t make blanket statements based off two outcomes that easily could have gone the other way for Kansas City, which won 26-25. But as the Chiefs outlasted another AFC challenger, I recalled a note from colleague Dianna Russini’s column Saturday pointing out how Mahomes and Kelce did not miss a practice all summer.

 

"I thought of the Bengals practicing without key players during their training camp, including Ja’Marr Chase, who was pushing for a new contract. I thought about the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson skipping four of Baltimore’s first five voluntary OTAs, forfeiting $750,000 in incentives.

 

"Are these little things indicators of anything relevant when the Chiefs’ most established stars are their most consistently reliable ones?"

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5768278/2024/09/16/vikings-sam-darnold-nfl-field-goals-pick-six/

 

I mean, dang that's a great point.

[90sBills]

On 9/16/2024 at 10:42 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t think a big chunk of them are free play type penalties…I really want to look into this and review them all myself but I’m not sure how to approach it haha.  There have been quite a few where the refs throw the flag super late like that jets pick last year.
 

 They could make it a lot less suspicious-seeming if they threw the flag when the supposed contact happened, but with mahomes for whatever reason the flags seem to come out post pick far too often

 

the refs seem really impressionable to mahomes’ whining 

Bill Barnwell read your request and did the research. He posted it on Twitter. Conclusion was Mahomes rate of overturned int is not the highest in the league. A lot of them were Offside by the defense and he took advantage. Turns out Burrow has a higher rate of int overturned.