Bills posting "insane" offensive efficiency metrics thru 2 weeks

[Bockeye]

17 hours ago, BillsVet said:

Worth noting that the last 3 seasons Buffalo has started off hot...4-1 in 2021, 5-1 in 2022, and 3-1 last year highlighted by the 48-20 romp vs. Miami.  In each of those starts they were good scoring (over or near 30 points per game).  

 

Then came the mid-season 8 game swoon where suddenly what was working isn't anymore.  And each season to overcome that, they needed Josh carrying the ball even though it was a priority at the start of the season for him not to.  

 

That's the script 3 years running and there's a likelihood it repeats itself this year except this year, there's no Diggs to catch passes.    

Agreed - and that’s a good thing that Diggs wont be catching passes.  Defenses wont be able to just focus on him, besides the fact he is slowly falling off the cliff.  I think some people are going to be surprised when we open up the passing attack.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

They had Diggs in '21 and '22, yet fell into deep slumps both seasons, particularly on offense.  

 

What I love about TSW is people who go from...here is the problem...to the cause almost within a few seconds.  And then those providing some detail in perhaps historical perspective or decent statistical analysisl to illustrate it ain't that simple...get responses like yours here.  Just surface level / knee jerk / narrative / bullet point conclusions.  

 

But it's a long season...and fast starts aren't always a harbinger of things to come.   

 

 

The mid-season swoon's of McDermott's teams are the biggest "narrative" that needs to be changed.

 

They reach a point in October/November every season where they seem to hit a wall.   Even though it's sometimes only 4-6 games into the season.   2017 of course was a defensively historic collapse but even in their best season under McD, 2020, they played games against TN and KC where they looked totally overmatched.   It's one thing to lose but in these stretches they often just look like a bad team(which we know shouldn't be the case).

 

I think Tyler Dunne might have hit on the primary cause........McDermott's intensity wearing on the team.   So hopefully with McD reportedly adjusting his style some as a result they've developed the self-awareness to avoid those.   Because they've basically been the reason that they have never earned the #1 seed despite all of the points and point differential data.   

 

 

Edited yesterday at 02:33 PM by BADOLBILZ

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

I think far too often posters are talking past each other because we have different perspectives.  I've noticed a penchant for people to review what's happened and use that as evidence things will be as good or better.  That's not necessarily my approach.  Not saying you're only that either Alpha.    

 

I see others who review games with the added focus on trying to anticipate what's coming.  One way I look at a team is their talent...and that's what prompted a 100+ page thread about the WR room which discussed this ad infinitum.  

 

My anticipation is...I'm primarily concerned about the boundary WR talent because it'll likely become a focal point of the offense.  And that is because I anticipate that teams will work to take the run away.  They'd be less likely to do so if there was a dynamic passing offense that stretched the field.  Yet, their primary receivers who would be running deeper patterns, i.e. intermediate or beyond, at this moment (and the latter in their careers) (EDIT: do not) represent the type of threat to make a defense think twice.  

 

Scheme only gets you so far...and eventually you gotta win 1 v 1 battles.  That's the challenge when the scheme isn't so fresh to opponents.  

 

The offense will be tested and we're going to find out if their offensive philosophy within the complementary football approach is sustainable.  I don't believe it is. 

 

There is nothing wrong with your take here at all.  Your concerns about the boundary talent on the team are fair given we have not seen what this group can or can't do yet...and more importantly, we haven't really seen our passing offense even really unleashed just yet to understand how they are going to consistently use the group as a whole.  

 

Personally, I am less concerned about the "boundary" than you and some others are because I have watched the 2 most recent dynasties operate without such an attack in the Pats dynasty and Chiefs mini dynasty.  Those teams bread and butter is not a downfield attack, dominance on the boundary etc.  Even when Hill was there, his best season with Mahomes was more than 500 yards less than he averages in Miami...yet Miami can't beat a .500 team or win a playoff game while Chiefs have 3 SB rings.  Brady with all that air it out offense with Moss...no rings.  Brady with pedestrian outside WR's but with high end TE play and smart, sure handed, quick, short to mid area WR's has 6 rings.  And the common denominator has been a consistent ability to effectively run the ball around those GOAT QB's, short and quick timed passing offense, and YAC.  

 

Does that mean we are the next Chiefs or Pats...no of course not.  But if there are teams I want to see us draw more inspiration from, its not teams airing it out with no rings to show for it, its teams with 10 rings in the last 25 years or so that also had elite QB's and realized they were better teams by taking higher percentage and lower risk opportunities and exploiting the defenses weak spots than trying to force the ball downfield as much as guys like Daboll and Dorsey have done.  

 

Scheme does only get you so far...but its not so much the 1 on 1 battles that concern me, its the OC"s ability to adjust the scheme, gameplan, etc against each opponent and his ability to make live in game adjustments as things work or don't work to said scheme/plan.  Keon can win 1 on 1 with size and body control...Shakir can win 1 on 1 with his route running and high IQ...Hollins showed he can win 1 on 1 already in week 1 on his TD running a text book route...MVS has shown he can win his 1 on 1 deep but Allen just has missed on the throw.  So we are seeing early signs of 1 on 1 success, and its something we don't even need a lot of.  

 

What we have not seen yet is Brady face adversity where the offense is stalling (outside self inflicted things like Allens poor decision on the fumble or the rust with the false start penalties we saw early in week 1).  So that is when we will really start to know if what Brady is building here is going to be sustainable, at least with this current group, as the season goes on.  And as I mentioned in another post here, I think his first real sniff test with be Houston as they will then have 4 weeks of film on this offense to game plan for with a defensive front 7 that can disrupt the QB and a defensive HC.  

 

It is still just one early season game, so how we fare that week won't make or break anything, but I do think that is about the time where we put enough on tape that DC's can better understand how to prepare for us and they have a roster to execute what they want to do.  So will Brady catch them off guard with more things that have not seen a lot of, will Brady run into some challenges and need to make in game adjustments, etc is the question.  

 

GO Bills!

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

57 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The mid-season swoon's of McDermott's teams are the biggest "narrative" that needs to be changed.

 

They reach a point in October/November every season where they seem to hit a wall.   Even though it's sometimes only 4-6 games into the season.   2017 of course was a defensively historic collapse but even in their best season under McD, 2020, they played games against TN and KC where they looked totally overmatched.   It's one thing to lose but in these stretches they often just look like a bad team(which we know shouldn't be the case).

 

I think Tyler Dunne might have hit on the primary cause........McDermott's intensity wearing on the team.   So hopefully with McD reportedly adjusting his style some as a result they've developed the self-awareness to avoid those.   Because they've basically been the reason that they have never earned the #1 seed despite all of the points and point differential data.   

 

 

 

I agree with this...although I think I differ some on the reason why.  Not saying McD didn't have a role in it...but I think it was more about the fact both Daboll and Dorsey were stubborn to a fault and both struggled to support Allen with an effective run game.  Chiefs would have no SB's for Mahomes if not for their ability to effectively run the ball.  I would also add in that the Bills notoriously were a small and less physical team that also relied too much on the big play.  

 

For me, the win column looks so different with Brady vs Dorsey because that stubbornness left with Dorsey's firing.  It was like he set a script and would stubbornly stick to that script even when it wasn't working and DC's had caught up with what was working earlier in the season.  Then both Daboll and Dorsey would stubbornly still stick with that for the weeks to follow until they had no choice but to try something different to get out of the skid, except Dorsey lacked the creativity Daboll did and  never could snap out of it in 2023 despite low level competition we were facing.  

 

Perfect example with Daboll was 2021 when his slump lasted into the Bucs game where we were getting beat bad at half time and Daboll finally decided to get the run game going in the 2nd half and we nearly came back and won the game.  From that point on, Devin's involvement and run game increased significantly rest of the season and the offense bounced back that carried us into the post season which included record breaking performances by the offense.  

 

To be clear, this is not to say it needed to be run heavy or run first...but if you can't effectively run the ball you put your self behind the chains a lot and that has been an absolute staple of our offensive slumps where we are consistently behind the chains and asking Allen to make hero plays on 3rd and long way too often.  

[Dukestreetking]

Warning: random, non-sequitur stat incoming.

 

Since Philly, Bills 8-1. Meanwhile, w no correlation specifically implied, Shakir is 32/35 on targets, 91.4%.

 

I get it: there's YPC, Success rate, small sample, arbitrary, etc, etc.

 

Just thought this was, ya know, interesting...

[JP51]

On 9/16/2024 at 8:19 AM, SoCal Deek said:

And yet Diggs has gone from a “go to” to a virtual afterthought in the Texans offense. 

He gonna get mad  and go to Dallas... and then who knows... but I think we havent seen the end of this act.