Bills posting "insane" offensive efficiency metrics thru 2 weeks

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

It's intriguing to consider, briefly, that the Bills are possibly at the forefront of where the league is finding itself this season, offensively. Feels unlikely, and yet...

 

We don't have much of a sample size to go on, yet, but it sure does seem like NFL DCs have been stubbornly insistent on aligning in 2-deep safety looks pre-snap, even when getting hurt by the run. Tons of post-snap coverage wrinkles and rotations and disguise, but when defenses consistently keep their safeties aligned deep and keep an extra DB on the field most of the time and the LBs are a little lighter...there is room to lean on them with the run game. Brady seems devoted to McD's vision of at least being able to succeed against that style of defense (while the Bills are also dedicated to sticking with that same D design themselves). 

 

Were 2020 and 2021 the last years when defenses really relied heavily on 2-deep safety alignments? Back then it was to combat the proliferation of explosive, spread and downfield passing attacks. Now, the pendulum might be swinging back again...

What the hell? Are you alleging the Bills are actually ahead of the curve? 

 

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

What the hell? Are you alleging the Bills are actually ahead of the curve? 

 

[CSBill]

4 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I think the Bills were the first team to go to the nickel 4-2-5 as their base defense.

 

Based on the pendulum swing theory I wonder when they might default back to a 4-3-4.

 

 

It works well for the Bills because we have a fantastic slot defender: Taron Johnson. He covers with good DB skills and hits like a strong Linebacker, and amazingly, Cam Lewis has filled in admirably in his absence.

[Avisan]

It's fascinating watching folks who pretty adamantly shot down anyone who thought we could still be a top offense this season realize that we might, in fact, be a top offense this season without a hint of introspection

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

As a reminder , the Bills EPA went DOWN when Brady took over last year.

 

But yes this is a heartening start

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

there is an awful lot to be said on this but im not sure this is the time or place tbh

 

So much of it has already been said but had gone in one ear and out the other of the masses who need to believe that their coordinator is either bad or great and not just taking the least complicated approach.   The decision to move to "complementary football" was an organizational one not just a Brady concoction.  They had already begun trying out this approach for a full game versus Tampa before Dorsey was canned.  It was a tough call because it was going to expose the QB to a lot more wear and tear and not be flattering to their star players statistically.  We knew this HOF QB version of Jauron Ball wins regular season games and reduces the likelihood of getting upset.   But time will tell if it was the right call.   Week 1 and QB1 already had the under-Brady-standard 9 rushes and finished with a hand injury.  

 

As an aside.....Funny hearing Brian Daboll talking about "complementary football" in his weekly Giants postgame loss PC's now.  Laugh out loud kinda' funny.

[Big Turk]

6 hours ago, CSBill said:

 

It works well for the Bills because we have a fantastic slot defender: Taron Johnson. He covers with good DB skills and hits like a strong Linebacker, and amazingly, Cam Lewis has filled in admirably in his absence.

 

Lewis has made multiple big time run stops in key situations...it really has been impressive to see.

[DCofNC]

On 9/16/2024 at 8:19 AM, SoCal Deek said:

And yet Diggs has gone from a “go to” to a virtual afterthought in the Texans offense. 

He better get to producing or he’s going to be a sad man over giving up those guarantees 

[Robert Paulson]

On 9/16/2024 at 7:53 AM, billieve420 said:

I need to see what happens when teams are able to take the run away. Can the team make enough plays in the passing game to move the ball and can the WRs get open. Being able to get chunk plays and throwing deep will be the key.

Good point and it depends  on how many players they need to put in the box to do it.

[Big Turk]

On 9/16/2024 at 8:53 AM, billieve420 said:

I need to see what happens when teams are able to take the run away. Can the team make enough plays in the passing game to move the ball and can the WRs get open. Being able to get chunk plays and throwing deep will be the key.

 

They can choose to die slowly or quickly, it's their choice. 

[GoBills808]

6 hours ago, Avisan said:

It's fascinating watching folks who pretty adamantly shot down anyone who thought we could still be a top offense this season realize that we might, in fact, be a top offense this season without a hint of introspection

it's equally fascinating to see folks try to proclaim this might be a top offense after week2 where the offense is ranked 21st averaging under 300ypg

[HappyDays]

Rookie WR separation win rates through two weeks:

 

 

[Sweats]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Rookie WR separation win rates through two weeks:

 

 

 

 

 

No Worthy?!?.......incredible

[Bruffalo]

7 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

No Worthy?!?.......incredible

Worthy is #11 at 12.2%, with Legette hanging out in the dumpster at 5%.

 

If you're looking at separation score Coleman drops a bit, and Mitchell shoots up huge, but I'm not convinced about that stat being a very useful indicator, honestly. 

Edited September 17 by Bruffalo

[Big Turk]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

it's equally fascinating to see folks try to proclaim this might be a top offense after week2 where the offense is ranked 21st averaging under 300ypg

 

Context matters. I know to most people that's a lot to ask, but it still matters.

Edited September 17 by Big Turk

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Context matters. I know to most people that's a lot to ask, but it still matters.

I wasn't talking about your OP. I've been talking up our metrics for the past 2+years now

 

 

[Mat68]

On 9/16/2024 at 12:21 PM, Rockinon said:

The trend could continue but it sure doesn't seem sustainable. OTOH, Brady was a big part of coaching one of the most prolific attacks in collage football. The thing that is encouraging, is how much the Bills have been mixing things up, spreading the ball around. Defenses have not been able to key in and take away the best offensive weapon because everyone is getting touches and still producing.

I disagree.  They are not doing anything special.  Running with big bodies vs small ones.  Spread out advantageous match ups.  Once they get to the defense tendencies they can dictate matchups based off player packages. 

[Big Turk]

17 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I wasn't talking about your OP. I've been talking up our metrics for the past 2+years now

 

 

 

I wasn't specifically referring to your post, just in a general sense, many people don't look at context when they talk about stats or even why things happen during games.

On 9/16/2024 at 12:21 PM, Rockinon said:

The trend could continue but it sure doesn't seem sustainable. OTOH, Brady was a big part of coaching one of the most prolific attacks in collage football. The thing that is encouraging, is how much the Bills have been mixing things up, spreading the ball around. Defenses have not been able to key in and take away the best offensive weapon because everyone is getting touches and still producing.

 

It will likely depend on if the D re-adjusts...so many have gone smaller and faster on defense that you can just bring in an extra O-lineman and maul them on run plays and many times get big chunk plays(see Cook's 49 yard house call)

[Avisan]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

it's equally fascinating to see folks try to proclaim this might be a top offense after week2 where the offense is ranked 21st averaging under 300ypg

In column A we have:

-A history of offensive competence under this regime

-A top 3 QB

-High EPA/play

-A balanced offensive philosophy that is sustaining drives

 

In column B we have:

-lol WRs bad

 

IDK, definitely a toss-up in terms of which way our (limited) evidence so far points

[BADOLBILZ]

20 minutes ago, Avisan said:

In column A we have:

-A history of offensive competence under this regime

-A top 3 QB

-High EPA/play

-A balanced offensive philosophy that is sustaining drives

 

In column B we have:

-lol WRs bad

 

IDK, definitely a toss-up in terms of which way our (limited) evidence so far points

 

This is actually the crux of the offseason debate.

 

Column A

WR's aren't good enough to win a SB

 

Column B

They are fine, it worked last year

 

Two different goal posts.   Some of those in column B ventured into "well the Chiefs won the SB" with a bad WR corps and the debate about whether they were bad or not come January......... but most of the vocal defender's of the Bills moves(or lack thereof) at WR were just aiming at a lower bar than winning the SB.   It was already clear that Brady ball can win a lot of regular season games.   But it was also clear that it comes at the expense of hard mileage on the QB and lesser passing game numbers.   Those things have held true.   The QB got injured running the ball and the bulk passing numbers are predictably poor.   Perhaps I missed it but I never saw @HappyDays or @Kirby Jackson claim that this team wouldn't be a top 10 scoring offense the way they were constituted.   That seemed a given with Josh Allen.   It's not any surprise to anyone that they've won 2 of the seemingly most winnable games on their schedule Arizona in Buffalo and @ Miami(who they had beaten 11 of the last 12 meetings).  

 

We will see how it all worked out in February.