Bills posting "insane" offensive efficiency metrics thru 2 weeks

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean we had 0 catches from our outside WRs against Miami. Only 1 target and it came in garbage time on a broken play that Allen just flung down the field to Coleman. Unless Coleman develops very quickly it's going to be a weakness on the team. The only definite solution is to add someone.

It’s a little early for this. Coleman had a very nice first game, and the Dolphins got beaten down so soundly we hardly threw a pass in the second half. Talk to me in like 8 games.

[Big Turk]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean we had 0 catches from our outside WRs against Miami. Only 1 target and it came in garbage time on a broken play that Allen just flung down the field to Coleman. Unless Coleman develops very quickly it's going to be a weakness on the team. The only definite solution is to add someone.

 

 

Sure there are always ways to hide/overcome weaknesses. That doesn't mean it isn't a weakness. The Chiefs beat the Bengals despite their LT getting his lunch money taken. That doesn't mean LT isn't a weakness for them.

 

I'm more confident than I was before the season that we can have a top 5 offense. I'm not confident at all that we have a high level outside passing attack. My belief is that adding one player to eliminate that weakness could make us arguably the best offense in the league and push us over the hump. I hope we make a move at the trade deadline.

 

Game plan specific most likely. And in the 2nd half after the pick 6 the game was over and the Bills just wanted to run clock and get out of there without any more injuries. 

Edited Monday at 07:45 PM by Big Turk

[CSBill]

I’m still wondering what EPA is. But I’m glad we’re doing well with it. 

[ColoradoBills]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean we had 0 catches from our outside WRs against Miami. Only 1 target and it came in garbage time on a broken play that Allen just flung down the field to Coleman. Unless Coleman develops very quickly it's going to be a weakness on the team. The only definite solution is to add someone.

 

 

Sure there are always ways to hide/overcome weaknesses. That doesn't mean it isn't a weakness. The Chiefs beat the Bengals despite their LT getting his lunch money taken. That doesn't mean LT isn't a weakness for them.

 

I'm more confident than I was before the season that we can have a top 5 offense. I'm not confident at all that we have a high level outside passing attack. My belief is that adding one player to eliminate that weakness could make us arguably the best offense in the league and push us over the hump. I hope we make a move at the trade deadline.

 

I feel Brady needs some more time to show us what he has really got with his WRs.

The Miami game is not a typical game to judge the passing game.  IMO.

[JaCrispy]

14 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

What does EPA mean? Never mind. I googled it. 😵

Environmental Protection Agency 

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Wait now we like EPA😂😂

 

 

Brady is hunting EPA

 

[NewEra]

8 hours ago, DapperCam said:

It’s a little early for this. Coleman had a very nice first game, and the Dolphins got beaten down so soundly we hardly threw a pass in the second half. Talk to me in like 8 games.

He’s gone off the deep end.  I don’t know if we can get him back 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, CSBill said:

I’m still wondering what EPA is. But I’m glad we’re doing well with it. 

EPA stands for expected points added. It's a derivative of expected points, which in itself is a measure of how many points you can expect to gain relative to down/distance. For example if you have the ball on the opponents 20 and it's first down, you have an EP of say 4 (roughly)...if it was third down your expected points would be 2.5 or thereabouts. I believe expected points and EPA both draw from the same data set that win% and success rate do also.

 

EPA is just the difference between what your expected points is for a given play (or drive) and the outcome...like if it's fourth down and 10 from your own 40 (probably net zero or even negative EP in that position, so say its like -.15 expected points in that particular scenario) and you gain 11 yards that would be significantly positive outcome (like 1.25 EPA, I dont have the calculator in front of me) that play would be 1.10 EPA

43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Brady is hunting EPA

 

there is an awful lot to be said on this but im not sure this is the time or place tbh

[HappyDays]

30 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He’s gone off the deep end.  I don’t know if we can get him back 

 

I'm off the deep end because I think our outside passing game is a weakness? If it helps, the offense as a whole looks better than I thought it would. But by no means do I trust the offense to run through Coleman and Hollins if that becomes the necessary game script, and I worry that at some point we'll need it to.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm off the deep end because I think our outside passing game is a weakness? If it helps, the offense as a whole looks better than I thought it would. But by no means do I trust the offense to run through Coleman and Hollins if that becomes the necessary game script, and I worry that at some point we'll need it to.

There are some very valid sustainability concerns but folks won't want to hear them

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm off the deep end because I think our outside passing game is a weakness? If it helps, the offense as a whole looks better than I thought it would. But by no means do I trust the offense to run through Coleman and Hollins if that becomes the necessary game script, and I worry that at some point we'll need it to.

Yes- the deep end

edit:. Maybe I just click on the wrong threads and have missed a lot of your content recently…..but it seems to me like this is really all you discuss nowadays.  

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

There are some very valid sustainability concerns but folks won't want to hear them

Yes, there are concerns.  Every single team in the nfl has concerns.  That’s football.  I’m concerned that our outside pass game may not be there when/if we need it.  💯 

 

I don’t type about it in every thread, every day.  

Edited Tuesday at 03:34 AM by NewEra

[GoBills808]

Just now, NewEra said:

Yes- the deep end

Yes, there are concerns.  Every single team in the nfl has concerns.  That’s football.  I’m concerned that our outside pass game may not be there when/if we need it.  💯 

 

I don’t type about it in every thread, every day.  

I'm not in every thread talking about it

 

In fact iirc that was last season when the metrics were great and everyone wanted Dorsey fired 😂😂

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

Yes- the deep end

Yes, there are concerns.  Every single team in the nfl has concerns.  That’s football.  I’m concerned that our outside pass game may not be there when/if we need it.  💯 

 

I don’t type about it in every thread, every day.  

 

I don't know, usually I make my points and then others make theirs and I let the conversation end. I only feel the need to respond again when someone says something like I've gone off the deep end.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm not in every thread talking about it

 

In fact iirc that was last season when the metrics were great and everyone wanted Dorsey fired 😂😂

I wasn’t talking about you

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know, usually I make my points and then others make theirs and I let the conversation end. I only feel the need to respond again when someone says something like I've gone off the deep end.

I edited my post to be more specific 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I edited my post to be more specific 

 

For some reason the Bills passing offense dominates the conversation around here. I can't imagine why.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

I don't know, usually I make my points and then others make theirs and I let the conversation end. I only feel the need to respond again when someone says something like I've gone off the deep end.

I feel like I’ve read a 100 posts talking about how poor our WRs/outside pass game is/will be from you since this offseason.

 

if I’m wrong, I apologize.  I respect you a bunch and sorry if I offended you.  
 

again- I agree that it’s a concern. 

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

For some reason the Bills passing offense dominates the conversation around here. I can't imagine why.

Do you man-  but when I see the same posts over and over - I can’t help but think someone went off the deep end.  I have the same concerns as you.  But I’m not off the deep end. 
 

but because I choose not to discuss it ad nauseam I don’t want to hear it…..

 

I hear it everyday….all day….from the same people.  

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Do you man-  but when I see the same posts over and over - I can’t help but think someone went off the deep end.  I have the same concerns as you.  But I’m not off the deep end. 
 

but because I choose not to discuss it ad nauseam I don’t want to hear it…..

 

I hear it everyday….all day….from the same people

 

For me the conversation has actually changed though. A month ago I was worried about us being even a top 10 offense. Now having seen the running game and seen the OL and seen Allen elevate his game even further I think we are one legit outside weapon away from being a top 5 offense. I no longer see this as a throwaway rebuild season. I see it as a legit championship contention year and I'm all in on trying to capitalize on it. That's what the trade deadline is for. Go rescue DeAndre Hopkins from his dead end team, or something like that.

[Richard Noggin]

It's intriguing to consider, briefly, that the Bills are possibly at the forefront of where the league is finding itself this season, offensively. Feels unlikely, and yet...

 

We don't have much of a sample size to go on, yet, but it sure does seem like NFL DCs have been stubbornly insistent on aligning in 2-deep safety looks pre-snap, even when getting hurt by the run. Tons of post-snap coverage wrinkles and rotations and disguise, but when defenses consistently keep their safeties aligned deep and keep an extra DB on the field most of the time and the LBs are a little lighter...there is room to lean on them with the run game. Brady seems devoted to McD's vision of at least being able to succeed against that style of defense (while the Bills are also dedicated to sticking with that same D design themselves). 

 

Were 2020 and 2021 the last years when defenses really relied heavily on 2-deep safety alignments? Back then it was to combat the proliferation of explosive, spread and downfield passing attacks. Now, the pendulum might be swinging back again...

[Sierra Foothills]

1 hour ago, Richard Noggin said:

It's intriguing to consider, briefly, that the Bills are possibly at the forefront of where the league is finding itself this season, offensively. Feels unlikely, and yet...

 

We don't have much of a sample size to go on, yet, but it sure does seem like NFL DCs have been stubbornly insistent on aligning in 2-deep safety looks pre-snap, even when getting hurt by the run. Tons of post-snap coverage wrinkles and rotations and disguise, but when defenses consistently keep their safeties aligned deep and keep an extra DB on the field most of the time and the LBs are a little lighter...there is room to lean on them with the run game. Brady seems devoted to McD's vision of at least being able to succeed against that style of defense (while the Bills are also dedicated to sticking with that same D design themselves). 

 

Were 2020 and 2021 the last years when defenses really relied heavily on 2-deep safety alignments? Back then it was to combat the proliferation of explosive, spread and downfield passing attacks. Now, the pendulum might be swinging back again...

 

I think the Bills were the first team to go to the nickel 4-2-5 as their base defense.

 

Based on the pendulum swing theory I wonder when they might default back to a 4-3-4.

 

[Richard Noggin]

8 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I think the Bills were the first team to go to the nickel 4-2-5 as their base defense.

 

Based on the pendulum swing theory I wonder when they might default back to a 4-3-4.

 

 

They seem damned determined to be a nickel defense. Not that injuries are allowing any flexibility, given the current decimation of our 2nd level starters.