Bills posting "insane" offensive efficiency metrics thru 2 weeks

[GoBills808]

Wait now we like EPA😂😂

[GASabresIUFan]

11 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Last year the Bills finished 3rd in the NFL in EPA/play on offense at 0.10.

What was the EPA last season after Brady took over? 
 

The Bills are 9-2 since Brady became the OC.  

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

VERY young. The next 4 games will most likely show all the warts. No way we can maintain with the casualty list growing weekly.

 

Casualty list though?  That has been on defense, the thread is about the offense how efficient it has been.  

 

And Cardinals just showed that they are a lot tougher than people thought.

 

Back to the casualty list - We held McBride, MHJ Jr, Hill, and Waddle to a total of 99 yards combined without Taron and Milano week 1 and without them and Bernard week 2.  

[NewEra]

29 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

More specifically we don't have a go to WR outside the numbers. Shakir has been very effective from the slot. Defenses are going to start clogging the middle and dare our WRs to win on the boundary. That is one addition that I think might be necessary to really compete for a Super Bowl this year.

 

Might be right-  I’m not too worried about it.  WR screens and swings/passes to the RB will make those teams pay.  The  Trey Johnson pass last week is an example.  The safety dropped down to cover Kincaid/the QB scramble and our slow RB beat the “all pro” corner
 

 In other instances, it’s tough to cover for more than 4 seconds.  I have confidence that when everyone is covered, Josh will extend the play and find someone or scramble.  We have the X factor 

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

We don't know that as of this time.  Coleman showed he can grab balls on the sidelines.

 

I mean we had 0 catches from our outside WRs against Miami. Only 1 target and it came in garbage time on a broken play that Allen just flung down the field to Coleman. Unless Coleman develops very quickly it's going to be a weakness on the team. The only definite solution is to add someone.

 

8 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

The thing about keying on the middle for D's is they allow the potential for big gains made on swing passes out of the backfield.

 

Sure there are always ways to hide/overcome weaknesses. That doesn't mean it isn't a weakness. The Chiefs beat the Bengals despite their LT getting his lunch money taken. That doesn't mean LT isn't a weakness for them.

 

I'm more confident than I was before the season that we can have a top 5 offense. I'm not confident at all that we have a high level outside passing attack. My belief is that adding one player to eliminate that weakness could make us arguably the best offense in the league and push us over the hump. I hope we make a move at the trade deadline.

[Buffalo4Life01]

we can do anything we put our minds to boys!!  meep meep meep me creeps, shoo shoo me jags!!!!!  Bills 42, Jags 13!!

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Might be right-  I’m not too worried about it.  WR screens and swings/passes to the RB will make those teams pay.  The  Trey Johnson pass last week is an example.  The safety dropped down to cover Kincaid/the QB scramble and our slow RB beat the “all pro” corner
 

 In other instances, it’s tough to cover for more than 4 seconds.  I have confidence that when everyone is covered, Josh will extend the play and find someone or scramble.  We have the X factor 

 

Yes Josh Allen can single handedly wipe out defensive wins on any given play. I'd rather not have to rely on that though. I'd rather have an offense that has no major weaknesses and is a total nightmare to defend, with Allen's unicorn abilities as the cherry on top instead of the engine.

 

Really nothing to complain about the offensive efficiency through two weeks. I'm thinking ahead to January though. I see a major weakness that can be exploited and I don't see any reason why the team shouldn't make a move at the deadline if one is there to be made.

[Rockinon]

20 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Maybe, maybe not.  Bills have been one of the leaders in the focus on the heavy run game against the 2 high coverages that lots of other teams seem to be following now.  We have led the NFL in points/game and been top 3 in EPA for the last 4 years. Why would you think it wouldn't be sustainable with Allen who has done it for a long time now?

Not saying they aren't efficient, but the numbers the OP posted for the 1st 2 games seems a bit crazy.

[Logic]

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yes Josh Allen can single handedly wipe out defensive wins on any given play. I'd rather not have to rely on that though. I'd rather have an offense that has no major weaknesses and is a total nightmare to defend, with Allen's unicorn abilities as the cherry on top instead of the engine.

 

Really nothing to complain about the offensive efficiency through two weeks. I'm thinking ahead to January though. I see a major weakness that can be exploited and I don't see any reason why the team shouldn't make a move at the deadline if one is there to be made.

Of course you would-  but that’s hard to attain the a salary cap era.  Which teams have no major weaknesses?  They chiefs may have the worst set of OTs in the league again.  Cincis’s OL is below average and their TEs/DBs are pedestrian.  Baltimore has no IOL, no WRs.  Jax has OL/CB (and QB issues).  Phillys defense is a sieve.  Miami has no OL/LBs, weak DL.  Jets have terrible WRs minus Wilson, questionable OL and a 40 year old QB.  Dallas has no interior defense.  Lions may have figured out their DB issues…..but maybe not. 
 

I think the Texas and niners are the most complete teams -  and they pay their QBs minimal. 
 

Teams with elite game changing QBs usually HAAVILY lean on that player.  Josh will be no different.  

[extrahammer]

44 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Maybe, maybe not.  Bills have been one of the leaders in the focus on the heavy run game against the 2 high coverages that lots of other teams seem to be following now.  We have led the NFL in points/game and been top 3 in EPA for the last 4 years. Why would you think it wouldn't be sustainable with Allen who has done it for a long time now?

 

If you could compare Allen's mental growth the last few years based on this stat, where would you say he is? 

Edited Monday at 05:26 PM by extrahammer

[SCBills]

7 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

VERY young. The next 4 games will most likely show all the warts. No way we can maintain with the casualty list growing weekly.

 

What casualties are you referring to when this is about offensive metrics..

[Chandler#81]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

What casualties are you referring to when this is about offensive metrics..

Our Defense woes will take us out of ground & pound, which is what our opponents want cuz they expect it. See, it’s a 2 way game.

Edited Monday at 05:22 PM by Chandler#81

[SCBills]

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean we had 0 catches from our outside WRs against Miami. Only 1 target and it came in garbage time on a broken play that Allen just flung down the field to Coleman. Unless Coleman develops very quickly it's going to be a weakness on the team. The only definite solution is to add someone.

 

 

Sure there are always ways to hide/overcome weaknesses. That doesn't mean it isn't a weakness. The Chiefs beat the Bengals despite their LT getting his lunch money taken. That doesn't mean LT isn't a weakness for them.

 

I'm more confident than I was before the season that we can have a top 5 offense. I'm not confident at all that we have a high level outside passing attack. My belief is that adding one player to eliminate that weakness could make us arguably the best offense in the league and push us over the hump. I hope we make a move at the trade deadline.

 

I think it's unfair to make any judgments about the WR's after two games, but I also think it's still a TBD situation. 

 

Arizona took Kincaid away and really started to jump our predictable early down runs, so we threw to the receivers.  But Josh Allen also had to go off in that game.. much to do with his early fumble, first half defensive struggles and kickoff return.. otherwise we would've blown them out.  

 

Miami was a slaughter.   We ran all over them and the defense was lights out.  No need to throw the ball around the field.  

 

I would love a game where Samuel and Coleman really show that they can be trusted.  We know Shakir is a beast in the slot and that Kincaid is an elite talent (still want to see us figure out how to feature him more), but our Offense taking another step likely depends on Coleman/Samuel being guys that we can rely on outside/down the field. 

13 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Our Defense woes will take us out of ground & pound, which is what our opponents want cuz they expect it. See, it’s a 2 way game.

 

They didn't against Arizona.  We threw the ball to get back to 17-10, from down 17-3, but ran the ball in an annoyingly predictable fashion, most of the second half. 

 

Our Defense found it's footing, but it was shaky for a half.. and judging by Arizona's Week 2 Game.. that might just be a good team with an explosive offense.  

 

I generally agree that we will need more out of Samuel & Coleman specifically, but to this point, we haven't and really don't know what they will look like when we do need them. 

 

Heading into the season, so many doomers just assumed that all our question marks would automatically be where we struggle.  Seems some are doing that again given we're two weeks in and haven't needed to rely on our outside WR's, therefore they are still unknowns, and therefore "warts may show"....why?  We don't know what we have.  Maybe they step up.  Maybe not.   We'll find out. 

[Dillenger4]

We are definitely looking good. Our O line is playing hard and that is the reason. Run or pass - they are solid!

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

More specifically we don't have a go to WR outside the numbers. Shakir has been very effective from the slot. Defenses are going to start clogging the middle and dare our WRs to win on the boundary. That is one addition that I think might be necessary to really compete for a Super Bowl this year.

 

 

Keep in mind, Shakir was making people pay on the boundary last year too though.  I still think you sell Shakir's capabilities a bit too low IMHO.

 

But more importantly, I think too many people over value this "boundary" attack.  We have seen MVS get open deep multiple times and Allen just missed on his passes to him.  We saw one deep shot to Coleman on the boundary and it was a beauty.  And we have seen very little of Samuel so far whose snap counts have been low both probably to help manage the turf toe early and also because of game flow.  

 

More importantly, we are winning all over the field.  We are getting chunk plays that move the chains and not just from the slot.  Coleman has shown both in the preseason, week 1 and even week 2 (even though he didn't get the target) he has a nasty comeback route outside that he is getting big separation on to the point he was able to turn up and get an easy first down and double-digit yards.  Knox and Kincaid have been making plays for chunks too, as our RB's.  

 

And factor this in:  Week 1, Allen had 2 pass attempts until the final 2 min drive to end the half.  We would go on to put up 31 points in 31 minutes from that point on.  Then week 2, Bills had to take the foot off the gas and chew clock for almost an entire half in a blowout win and we still put up 34 points as a team.  This offense has only been humming for about a total time of 5 quarters of play due to game flow and the Bills have outscored their opponents 75-13 in that span.  

 

Its early...teams will get film and try and be better prepared to defend this team no doubt.  So it will be up to Brady to figure out how to adjust and attack those teams too.  But right now, this approach has been highly efficient and effective.

[BuffaloMatt]

8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

VERY young. The next 4 games will most likely show all the warts. No way we can maintain with the casualty list growing weekly.

All winnable . . . but next up is all we care about. 

[Big Turk]

29 minutes ago, Chandler#81 said:

Our Defense woes will take us out of ground & pound, which is what our opponents want cuz they expect it. See, it’s a 2 way game.

 

Actually it was the exact opposite of what happened when it struck last year...in the Chiefs playoff game, they dominated the time of possession by running the ball effectively and often which kept the other team's offense off the field much of the game.

Edited Monday at 05:52 PM by Big Turk

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, Pokebball said:

How much longer can this go on before "drama" begins

I think he isn’t crazy enough to go nuts on a one year contract. 

[balln]

14 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

We are definitely looking good. Our O line is playing hard and that is the reason. Run or pass - they are solid!

Apparently we had awful pff grades for pass blocking vs Miami. All 5 of them