Mcdermott going for it on 4th and 3

[dave mcbride]

30 minutes ago, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

Um, isn’t this because they led the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage in 2022 and 2023, finished 2nd in 2021, and 4th in 2020? The math seems pretty simple here. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/third-down-conversion-pct?date=2021-02-08

[phypon]

 

9 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

You need to also consider the fact that the Bills are rarely playing from behind late and aren't forced to go for it on 4th as often as other teams.

That's why their total attempts are low, not because McDermott is conservative.

He has his flaws, but being afraid on 4th down isn't one of them.

 

Excellent point!

 

I don't have any issues with McD's 4th down game.  Here is a good link if anyone wants to do some number crunching.  You can go back multiple seasons. 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/team/_/stat/downs/season/2023/seasontype/2/table/miscellaneous/sort/fourthDownAttempts/dir/desc

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

You can criticize McD fairly on a number of points, but IMO this is not one of them. He's always been aggressive here.

[Rockinon]

I think the Bills were among the best teams in the NFL on 3rd down conversion rate. There is very good reason to go for it on 4th down. Don't have a problem with this 4th and 3 what so ever.

[MJS]

Many of the instances where fans complain about McDermott NOT going for it are when the analytics say not to go for it. Fans don't have those numbers in front of them, so they don't know. There are plenty of times where the analytics say to kick the field goal or to punt it. Analytics don't say to go for it on 4th down ALL the time. Even when it is 4th and short. Fans need to remember that. Sometimes the correct thing to do, analytically, is the conservative choice.

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

 

Actually yes it is. People think he is a "conservative coach" but he isn't. Plenty of examples of him going for it in these situations.

[Toledo Bill]

2 hours ago, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

He should go for every fourth down inside the 40 with Bass on our sideline 😱

[GASabresIUFan]

Personally, I think the Bills should go for it 4-3 or less every time once the pass the opponents 45 yard line.  I mean f--- field goals, f--- punts.  With Josh and this O-line no excuse not to pick up 3 yards when needed.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

 

McD I think has actually been one of the more aggressive Coach on going for it.  Probably felt that this game could be a shootout and wanted to get a good start.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Mcd seems pretty aggressive to me in those situations while the game is still

close…I’m sure it’s based on if they have a play they like against whatever defense they’re facing.

 

once we’re up 7+ in games he plays them more conservatively as he should imo 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

 

It shows he goes for it when the analytics say to go for it.

[Logic]

Others have said it already.

Both the percentage of 4th downs on which McDermott goes for it, and the frequency with which he goes for it on 4th when he "should" (as shown in the chart above) are high. Consistently top five. So that notion of "this seems out of character for him" is simply wrong. It's not out of character.

As for the decision he made against the Dolphins: I like going for it on 4th down early in the game. I believe it sends a message to the players that says "I believe in you, and we're better than these guys". At the point at which coach decided to go for it, Bass had not yet missed a kick on the season, so I don't think lack of faith in the kicker had anything to do with it. I think the analytics said go, coach's gut probably said go, and he believed in his guys.

What followed was the perfect play call and great execution. TD Jimbo. 

[HOUSE]

When you have Josh Allen at QB you can afford to have big Kahunies 

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, 86poker said:

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

 

Where are your numbers, @86poker?

 

1 hour ago, CoudyBills said:

Why not just make a spreadsheet and calculate the percentage for every team.  That will confirm or deny your hypothesis.  Then post the results.  

 

He quoted a very specific statistic. He quoted them, he should just cite them.

 

[nedboy7]

This was a good attempt to bend reality. 

[HardyBoy]

2 hours ago, 86poker said:

 

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

 

 

 

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

 

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

you can’t look at raw numbers, you need to look at % of times they faced 4th down and went for it. 
 

What if the bills faced the fewest number of 4th downs?

 

But appreciate your confidence when saying someone is completely wrong, when you are using what is most likely a super flawed metric to prove the point

[FLFan]

2 hours ago, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

Even when it was explained you do not seem to understand.  Stop digging.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I wanted the Bills to take the points. I understand going for it. Watching live, I just felt like it was a bit too risky. Three yards on the road seemed like a bit too risky. I didn't want the Dolphins to have a just of emotional and momentum if they stopped the Bills. Plus, even if the Bills make it ; there was no guarantee of a TD. 

 

Poor was a happy to be wrong as I watched Cook gallop into the end zone. 

 

 

agreed. I prefer to take the points there too. Get a little lead and some Momentum on the road. 

[Matt_In_NH]

2 hours ago, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

You must not watch bills games. 

[HardyBoy]

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

Others have said it already.

Both the percentage of 4th downs on which McDermott goes for it, and the frequency with which he goes for it on 4th when he "should" (as shown in the chart above) are high. Consistently top five. So that notion of "this seems out of character for him" is simply wrong. It's not out of character.

As for the decision he made against the Dolphins: I like going for it on 4th down early in the game. I believe it sends a message to the players that says "I believe in you, and we're better than these guys". At the point at which coach decided to go for it, Bass had not yet missed a kick on the season, so I don't think lack of faith in the kicker had anything to do with it. I think the analytics said go, coach's gut probably said go, and he believed in his guys.

What followed was the perfect play call and great execution. TD Jimbo. 

I’m usually in the be aggressive camp myself, but where they had stolen a possession, I was kinda leaning towards stealing the points. Going for it was the right decision, I just found it interesting that my brain was having those thoughts. 

 

Granted, watching the QB School video the other day (def watch it if people haven’t watched it yet, it’s a really good one), it really looks like Brady is able to scheme guys open and get people into favorable matchups and leverages and I’m sure that play he called had answers for man, zone and blitzes.