Mcdermott going for it on 4th and 3

[86poker]

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

[Billzgobowlin]

I don't have numbers to support this but seems like if they have a good vibe of what is happening with the opponents defense they will go for it on fourth and short.  Later in games it's situational.

[GunnerBill]

Your perception is wrong. McDermott has consistently been one of the most aggressive 4th down decision makers.

[Mynamemike]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

Your perception is wrong. McDermott has consistently been one of the most aggressive 4th down decision makers.

Yes he has.  Offensively he’s almost always been aggressive.  We blitz a lot more on defense than people realize too.  
 

Coach gets a bad rap imo for being a super conservative because he’s a defensive coach.  He’s always been willing to go for it and put the game in his players hands if he trust them.  
 

[newcam2012]

I wanted the Bills to take the points. I understand going for it. Watching live, I just felt like it was a bit too risky. Three yards on the road seemed like a bit too risky. I didn't want the Dolphins to have a just of emotional and momentum if they stopped the Bills. Plus, even if the Bills make it ; there was no guarantee of a TD. 

 

Poor was a happy to be wrong as I watched Cook gallop into the end zone. 

 

 

[86poker]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Your perception is wrong. McDermott has consistently been one of the most aggressive 4th down decision makers.

 

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

 

 

13 minutes ago, Mynamemike said:

Yes he has.  Offensively he’s almost always been aggressive.  We blitz a lot more on defense than people realize too.  
 

Coach gets a bad rap imo for being a super conservative because he’s a defensive coach.  He’s always been willing to go for it and put the game in his players hands if he trust them.  
 

 

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

 

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

[NI Bills Fan]

I think McDermott is more aggressive than most give him credit for.

 

The cautious nature of 4th down decision making in this game (linked below) hangs over him I think.  First game that came to kind for me when reading this thread.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/bills-sean-mcdermott-field-goal/l1j3k25bn9h1swiudy3o30yw

[JGMcD2]

Screw attempts, it’s knowing when to pull the lever. 

[MJS]

You're wrong. McDermott goes for it all the time. He is one of the most aggressive coaches. He usually follows the analytics. He is not a conservative coach at all.

 

All of these narratives are just wrong. They are made up by critics.

[Ya Digg?]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

You're wrong. McDermott goes for it all the time. He is one of the most aggressive coaches. He usually follows the analytics. He is not a conservative coach at all.

 

All of these narratives are just wrong. They are made up by critics.

And unfortunately Bills fans who see the narrative isn’t true with their own eyes but believe it anyway 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, 86poker said:

 

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

 

 

 

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

 

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

 

That is a bad way of measuring. You have to measure the % of 4th downs faced. The Panthers attempted the most 4th downs last year. You know why? They faced the most. The 49ers and Bills attempted among the fewest.... again, not hard to figure why.

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Screw attempts, it’s knowing when to pull the lever. 

 

Thanks. I was looking for this and couldn't lay my hands on it. Point proven.

[86poker]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Screw attempts, it’s knowing when to pull the lever. 

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

 

No it doesn't. It shows that he goes for it when he should. The reason we don't go for it more is we face fewer 4th downs. Same as the 9ers. 

 

Taking the bald numbers as you are on attempts is of no use for making an assessment.

[Malazan]

Ignoring the actual data shown to them and not showing where they're getting their information. This is an obvious troll job.

Edited September 15 by Malazan

[Ya Digg?]

3 minutes ago, Malazan said:

As shown by others, you're incorrect and just made this up. Why? Why make something up that is so easily disproven?

This thread is essentially just an extension of that narratives thread-this pretty much literally proves it’s really hard to get over false narratives 

[CoudyBills]

8 minutes ago, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

Why not just make a spreadsheet and calculate the percentage for every team.  That will confirm or deny your hypothesis.  Then post the results.  

[zow2]

We’ve seen that McD has a good feel for this 4th downstuff. He doesn’t act reckless like Brandon Staley did with his 4th down decisions, but if they have a good play dialed up against the defense he’s going for it.

 

There are plenty of situations where he will take the 3, because everyone knows forgoing the 3 points and getting nothing has lost plenty of games…which are usually close at the end.

[Simon]

24 minutes ago, 86poker said:

 

This shows the rate of success.  I'm not denying they are successful when going for it.  I have more trust in Josh to make these plays work.

 

But the bottom line is Mcdermott has been bottom 5 in going for it on 4th down in the league.  More often then not, he's taking the points over being aggressive.

 

Thursday he did the opposite and I hope it continues

 

You need to also consider the fact that the Bills are rarely playing from behind late and aren't forced to go for it on 4th as often as other teams.

That's why their total attempts are low, not because McDermott is conservative.

He has his flaws, but being afraid on 4th down isn't one of them.

[BuffaloBillyG]

53 minutes ago, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

It's not abnormal. McDermott has a bad rep for being too conservative and at one point it wasn't unwarranted.

 

In his first 2 or 3 seasons McDermott played the field position game. A lot. But that was with a roster that boasted a young and very rough around the edges Josh Allen at QB. Kelvin Benjamin as the WR1. Guys like Mike Tolbert and Chris Ivory at RB. Not a great OL.

 

McDermott has been good at making decisions based on the team he's coaching. As the offense got stronger/better players he's been very aggressive. 

[Rochesterfan]

1 hour ago, 86poker said:

This is not normal for him.

 

Why did he go for it in this spot.  He usually would just lay it up for 3, especially after getting stuffed on 3rd and 2

 

Hopefully we see this aggressiveness and confidence all season long

 

46 minutes ago, 86poker said:

 

Bottom 5 in 4th down attempts last 3 of the last 4 years

 

 

 

I'm sorry but you're completely wrong.

 

We have been bottom 5 in the league at going for it on 4th down, 3 of the last 4 years.  

 

 

I am sorry, but 30 posts - poor topic recognition - just plain stupid with no real stats to back things up - my god - hang it up.  🤦‍♂️

 

McD has been repeatedly praised for being one of the best at using analytics to determine go for it - versus punt/FG tries in relation to outcome impacting wins.

 

The data shows that he is among the best at being aggressive at the correct times and situations.

 

Raw numbers mean nothing - the Bills are amongst the highest scoring teams meaning they face fewer 4th down in general and are ahead many of the times and it is inappropriate to go for it.  
 

 

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

It's not abnormal. McDermott has a bad rep for being too conservative and at one point it wasn't unwarranted.

 

In his first 2 or 3 seasons McDermott played the field position game. A lot. But that was with a roster that boasted a young and very rough around the edges Josh Allen at QB. Kelvin Benjamin as the WR1. Guys like Mike Tolbert and Chris Ivory at RB. Not a great OL.

 

McDermott has been good at making decisions based on the team he's coaching. As the offense got stronger/better players he's been very aggressive. 

 

It also boasted Tyrod as the starting QB and a strong defense.  
 

McD was conservative in his first season - 100% based upon the team.  He loosened up a bit in year 2 with a rookie QB and has learned ever since.  
 

I 100% agree with this post.

Edited September 15 by Rochesterfan