Cap Space Question

[GreggTX]

I know we are currently saddled with $64 million in deadcap money (2nd in the NFL), but how do we look for next year? I'm sure things will change over time, but how do things look at present? Will we have money to spend in 2025? While we're at it, what draft picks do we possess for next Spring?

[JJGauna]

Overthecap shows the Bills with 11.7 million in space next year.

2025 Draft picks:

 

1st Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Minnesota, via Houston)

3rd Round Pick (Buffalo)

4th Round Pick (Buffalo)

4th Round Pick (Chicago*)

6th Round Pick (Buffalo)

6th Round Pick (New York Giants)

 

[MJS]

See here for cap numbers: 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills

 

Total Cap Liabilities: $264,982,447

Top 51: $260,442,759

Team Cap Space: $11,709,202

Offense: $126,745,699

Defense: $127,242,060

Special: $6,455,000

Dead Cap: $4,539,688

 

See here for draft picks:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2025-nfl-draft-picks-by-team/

 

Buffalo Bills 2025 NFL Draft Picks

Round 1

Round 2

Round 2 (from HOU via MIN)

Round 3

Round 4

Round 4 (from CHI)

Round 6

Round 6 (from NYG)

[GunnerBill]

Not much dead cap in 2025 - about $4m from Tre White. But at the moment we are still looking like being tight against thencap depending on where it lands. I think on Spotrac's estimate about $4m over. That is probably conservative as an estimate. My guess is we will end up just under the cap number but needing to do some work if we want to sign free agents and to sign our draft pool. Von't contract is the easiest place to go for that but a renegotiation with Josh to give him a new deal but lower his $43m cap hit is also a strong possibility. 

 

At the moment I believe we have EIGHT draft picks:

1 x 1st

2 x 2nd

1 x 3rd

2 x 4th

2 x 6th

 

But we will also get two comps for Davis (either a 4th or a 5th) and Floyd (a 5th).  So we will end up with TEN picks and eight in the first five rounds.

Edited September 14 by GunnerBill

[DC Grid]

I doubt those comps will be as high as you think.  I base that solely on the BS the NFL pulled last year when the Bills only got a 4th rounder for Edmunds.  Supposedly the extra $0 years that teams are adding to contracts to provide cap flexibility has totally undermined the compensation “formula” the NFL uses.  Both Davis and Floyd have two such $0 years in their contracts.  Also doesn’t signing Samuel cancel out one of this picks? 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, DC Grid said:

I doubt those comps will be as high as you think.  I base that solely on the BS the NFL pulled last year when the Bills only got a 4th rounder for Edmunds.  Supposedly the extra $0 years that teams are adding to contracts to provide cap flexibility has totally undermined the compensation “formula” the NFL uses.  Both Davis and Floyd have two such $0 years in their contracts.  Also doesn’t signing Samuel cancel out one of this picks? 

 

Nope. Samuel cancels out Dodson. I have already factored the formula uncertainty in. The Floyd one is pretty certain to be a 5th. It is right in the meat of 5th round territory. Davis is technically a 4th based on the known elements of the formula but I think that likely ends up as a 5th for the reasons you state. My prediction at this point is it will be two 5ths. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Factoring into this whole equation is the 2025 free agent pool from the Bills whose contracts are expiring. You know Beane loves to sign our own. Rasul Douglas is the most prominent name. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025/team/buf/sort/contract_value

 

Not listed is Groot, has another year due to the 5th year option the Bills picked up although I expect an extension from him, too. 

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, JJGauna said:

Overthecap shows the Bills with 11.7 million in space next year.

2025 Draft picks:

 

1st Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Buffalo)

2nd Round Pick (Minnesota, via Houston)

3rd Round Pick (Buffalo)

4th Round Pick (Buffalo)

4th Round Pick (Chicago*)

6th Round Pick (Buffalo)

6th Round Pick (New York Giants)

 

 

 

Yup.

 

And while $11.7 M doesn't look great at all, at the end of last season, before they started re-structuring and cutting and making those moves we were around $60M BELOW the cap for this year, if I remember correctly.

[Whkfc]

I don't expect us to be "Big Game Hunting" in free agency but I don't think it's going to be as rough as the last 2 years should be able to fill a couple positions of need with solid players.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Factoring into this whole equation is the 2025 free agent pool from the Bills whose contracts are expiring. You know Beane loves to sign our own. Rasul Douglas is the most prominent name. 
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/_/year/2025/team/buf/sort/contract_value

 

Not listed is Groot, has another year due to the 5th year option the Bills picked up although I expect an extension from him, too. 

 

Yes Groot extension is the other easy cap button to press. He is due $11.5m in 2025 on the option. An extension at least halves that if not more (you probably do a smaller up front bonus to amortise to keep 2025 low then a big option bonus in 2026 that is a foregone conclusion, same as with Spencer Brown's deal). 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yup.

 

And while $11.7 M doesn't look great at all, at the end of last season, before they started re-structuring and cutting and making those moves we were around $60M BELOW the cap for this year, if I remember correctly.

How do Von’s incentives work?

 

We would have to pay those out on next years cap, right?

 

I think we save 8Mish if we move off of him next year.   Although the way he’s playing, it probably makes more sense to keep him if he continues this.. even if only as a situational pass rusher. 
 

 

 

Edited September 14 by SCBills

[y2zipper]

Buffalo doesn't have a lot of notable in house free agents this offseason outside of Douglas and Groots 5th year, especially now that they've paid Brown. I don't know that I'd extend Groot now, and Douglas isn't really a must-sign.

 

Overthecap puts us at 12 or so after the draft picks, and Von Miller is the obvious cut candidate with 8m in savings there (or 17 m post June 1).

 

Ed Oliver and Josh Allen restructures are there as well.

 

The necessary big game hunt is still a premiere pass rusher. They don't have one.

 

 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, SCBills said:

How do Von’s incentives work?

 

We would have to pay those out on next years cap, right?

 

 

Yes.

[Adam727]

Why does Overthecap say we have $11mil in free cap space but Spotrac says we're almost $5mil over?  Does anyone know which is correct?  

[Process]

We shouldn't have many needs next offseason. QB, RB, TE and entire OL are all set for multiple years. We are in good shape. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

How do Von’s incentives work?

 

We would have to pay those out on next years cap, right?

 

I think we save 8Mish if we move off of him next year.   Although the way he’s playing, it probably makes more sense to keep him if he continues this.. even if only as a situational pass rusher. 
 

 

 

Yup, if he even touches 9-10 sacks this season, I'm keeping him for 2025 as his last season.

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, Adam727 said:

Why does Overthecap say we have $11mil in free cap space but Spotrac says we're almost $5mil over?  Does anyone know which is correct?  

 

If you want OTC real number, it's the Effective Cap Space which is $5M in cap space.

 

The other thing is OTC does not show in detail where it gets its numbers compared to Spotrac which does.

I personally use Spotrac because of that.