Bills vs Jags Game Week Thread - MNF

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Process said:

Yea it's a bummer. I think it's rained once this month so far. And then three straight away games, we're probably done with good weather home games this year. 

 

From what I understand, 60% chance or rain means that 60% of the area will receive rain at one point and not that there is a 60% chance of rain.

So hopefully it rains for like 10 minutes by the stadium and then it goes.

[SirAndrew]

10 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

Looks like rain for the game monday night? Been sunny and 85 for 10 straight days, gotta be kidding me...

This is how it’s been with every September game I’ve ever attended. Nice warm days for the entire month, but game day would be 50 degrees with rain. On the positive side, there’s always that chance for a 60 degree November game. WNY has always been crazy unpredictable in the fall. 

Edited 7 hours ago by SirAndrew

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

From what I understand, 60% chance or rain means that 60% of the area will receive rain at one point and not that there is a 60% chance of rain.

So hopefully it rains for like 10 minutes by the stadium and then it goes.

 

I've heard that before, but I'm not sure that it is true. I've always understood it as that is the percentage chance of rain at any point in the given area, say a city. Weather.gov seems to support that:

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf

 

Quote

To summarize, the probability of precipitation is simply a statistical probability of 0.01" inch of more of precipitation at a given area in the given forecast area in the time period specified. Using a 40% probability of rain as an example, it does not mean (1) that 40% of the area will be covered by precipitation at given time in the given forecast area or (2) that you will be seeing precipitation 40% of the time in the given forecast area for the given forecast time period. Let's look at an example of what the probability does mean. If a forecast for a given county says that there is a 40% chance of rain this afternoon, then there is a 40% chance of rain at any point in the county from noon to 6 p.m. local time.

 

I think the confusion comes from how they arrive at the percentage, which is close to what you were saying but the conclusion people make from it is wrong:

 

Quote

Using this, here are two examples giving the same statistical result: (1) If the forecaster was 80% certain that rain would develop but only expected to cover 50% of the forecast area, then the forecast would read "a 40% chance of rain" for any given location. (2) If the forecaster expected a widespread area of precipitation with 100% coverage to approach, but he/she was only 40% certain that it would reach the forecast area, this would, as well, result in a "40% chance of rain" at any given location in the forecast area.

 

So as they state in the paragraph in the 1st quote, if you see 40% for a city or area then it boils down to a 40% chance of rain at any given point in the total area.

Edited 6 hours ago by Slippery Rubber Mats

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Slippery Rubber Mats said:

 

I've heard that before, but I'm not sure that it is true. I've always understood it as that is the percentage chance of rain at any point in the given area, say a city. Weather.gov seems to support that:

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/WeatherEducation/pop.pdf

 

 

I think the confusion comes from how they arrive at the percentage, which is close to what you were saying but the conclusion people make from it is wrong:

 

 

So as they state in the paragraph in the 1st quote, if you see 40% for a city or area then it boils down to a 40% chance of rain at any given point in the total area.

 

Here's one thing I don't understand.

 

Weather.com says 60% chance of rain Monday Night.  The Weather.com app says 40% chance.

The app also shows on the line graph of precipitation, only 20% chance of rain at the highest.  You can scroll the point from any hour and 20% is the highest and then 10:00 pm, shows 0%.  I'm really confused.

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

Just now, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Here's one thing I don't understand.

 

Weather.com says 60% chance of rain Monday Night.  The Weather.com app says 40% chance.

The app also shows on the line graph of precipitation, only 20% chance of rain at the highest.  You can scroll the point from any hour and 20% is the highest and then 10:00 pm, shows 0%.  I'm really confused.

 

Yeah the apps are inconsistent as hell. It's really frustrating. I'll go out to the beach because the apple weather app doesn't have any rain at all, but I get there and everyone else's apps have like a 70% chance of rain LOL

[PoundingDog]

Man, football fans are scheme masters, accounting experts, psychologists, medical experts, and meteorologists,. ...

 

Anyway, when I look for weather, Radar is the best which gives areas coverage of precipitation. I don't know how fine you can zoom in but in general it is good enough for me

[Big Turk]

37 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Here's one thing I don't understand.

 

Weather.com says 60% chance of rain Monday Night.  The Weather.com app says 40% chance.

The app also shows on the line graph of precipitation, only 20% chance of rain at the highest.  You can scroll the point from any hour and 20% is the highest and then 10:00 pm, shows 0%.  I'm really confused.

 

Meaningless this far out. Wait til Monday afternoon to really have an idea what will be happening at 8pm at night with any real certainty, and then if it is still saying spotty showers, there still won't be any certainty since it could rain 20 miles away but not at all at the stadium.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 9/19/2024 at 10:11 AM, Rockinon said:

They are desperate for a win, but that just means the pressure is on them. Clearly they are the inferior team too. It's more likely they get embarrassed.

I hope so, but Jax still has some talent scattered around both sides of the ball. I think it’s a 1 score game in the Bills favor, but I hope you’re right. 

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Meaningless this far out. Wait til Monday afternoon to really have an idea what will be happening at 8pm at night with any real certainty, and then if it is still saying spotty showers, there still won't be any certainty since it could rain 20 miles away but not at all at the stadium.

 

I'm listening to Patrick Hammer on WGR now.

 

He said that it will rain on Monday and hoping for a dry window during the game.  He doesn't think the rain is going to be very impactful during the game if it does.

He doesn't think it will be steady.

 

 

[Augie]

59 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I'm listening to Patrick Hammer on WGR now.

 

He said that it will rain on Monday and hoping for a dry window during the game.  He doesn't think the rain is going to be very impactful during the game if it does.

He doesn't think it will be steady.

 

 

 

Nobody knows this far out unless a hurricane is coming your way. You can get a cheap Bills colored poncho at Target in the camping section that is folded up smaller than a deck of cards. It’s a couple bucks well spent as a precaution. 

[Royale with Cheese]

25 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Nobody knows this far out unless a hurricane is coming your way. You can get a cheap Bills colored poncho at Target in the camping section that is folded up smaller than a deck of cards. It’s a couple bucks well spent as a precaution. 

 

What's cool is he said that this storm is currently in San Diego and it's path is right towards Buffalo.  He said what would be great is if this rain can pick up speed and get through in the early afternoon.  Interesting, I looked at weather.com precipitation outlook and they are showing now the rain to leave around 7:00 pm.  But like you said, it's early and its still low confidence.

 

But at worst, it sounds like the same type of rain that we had against the Texans a few years ago when they won 40-0.  Josh Allen has big hands and can still have a good grip.  That's why women like men with big hands...they can still grip a football.  If you don't know, now you know.  

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Meaningless this far out. Wait til Monday afternoon to really have an idea what will be happening at 8pm at night with any real certainty, and then if it is still saying spotty showers, there still won't be any certainty since it could rain 20 miles away but not at all at the stadium.

You know what they say about the weather in Buffalo....If you don't like it just wait 5 minutes and shut up about the weather.  It sucks most of the year and everybody knows it so just shut up about the damn weather!

 

Its not very helpful in this conversation but thats what people are saying.

[Joe Ferguson]

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

18 hours ago, bills742 said:

 

 

Re Solomon, I had never seen an oblique sideline someone this long! 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Road closures, traffic info for Bills-Jaguars game-WIVB

 

Beginning at 2:30 p.m., the section of Abbott Road in front of the stadium will be closed to north and southbound traffic. This section will remain closed until after the game.

 

Around 10 p.m., Route 20A, also known as Big Tree Road, will convert to two-lane, one-way traffic eastbound away from the stadium from Fieldhouse Drive to Route 219.

 

It will also convert to two-lane one-way traffic westbound away from the stadium from Abbott Road to Southwestern Boulevard at the same time.

 

Stadium parking lots, aside from Lot 2-ADA and Lot 6-ADA, require an advanced-purchase parking pass.

 

Lot 3 is closed and drivers are asked not to park on the shoulder of the roadways for pedestrian safety.

 

All stadium lots open at 3:30 p.m. for the 7:30 p.m. game. Stadium gates open at 5:30 p.m.

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Here's one thing I don't understand.

 

Weather.com says 60% chance of rain Monday Night.  The Weather.com app says 40% chance.

The app also shows on the line graph of precipitation, only 20% chance of rain at the highest.  You can scroll the point from any hour and 20% is the highest and then 10:00 pm, shows 0%.  I'm really confused.

This is why we say things like "...as predictable as the weather." Nobody really knows how the weather will behave, no matter how many instruments we invent or how much school you go to.

25 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

Classy and mature guy. He gave great answers. A lot of guys get offended and talk bad about their previous teams.

[f0neguy]

I don’t think anyone disliked Gabe personally, he seems to be a good guy.  Folks had issues with his drops and consistency.  Hopefully Monday night he’s a good guy that drops a few.

[Johnnycage46]

45 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Re Solomon, I had never seen an oblique sideline someone this long! 

 

I see what you did there

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

This is why we say things like "...as predictable as the weather." Nobody really knows how the weather will behave, no matter how many instruments we invent or how much school you go to.

Classy and mature guy. He gave great answers. A lot of guys get offended and talk bad about their previous teams.

He knows getting drafted by the Bills and catching passes from 17 is the only reasons he’s making 13m a year. 

1 hour ago, f0neguy said:

I don’t think anyone disliked Gabe personally, he seems to be a good guy.  Folks had issues with his drops and consistency.  Hopefully Monday night he’s a good guy that drops a few.

He’s a great guy.  His momma was a little too defensive/aggressive on social media for my liking.