Bills vs Jags Game Week Thread - MNF

[mannc]

5 hours ago, PoundingDog said:

I quoted Dolphins game to show that the Bills and jags faced the same running attack from the Dolphins on the same field for a somewhat measure of run defense of the Jags.

 

Last year's game showed why it's a bad matchup. We ran a total 29 yards on 14 tries and 14 of the yards was from Alan. Assuming we can run on them without doing anything special is far fetched in my opinion. When you can't run, and then facing a top notch D-line with pass rushing abilities is bad for your passing scheme looking to big plays. That was the Bills problem last year. And that was the problem for the Dolphins week 1 until the Tyreek Hill 80 yard TD play. 

 

We all have reasons to believe Brady won't use last year's script and hope for a 80 yard TD play to beat Jags next Monday. But it will be a challenge. More than likely we have to win by passing the ball. But it might be dink and dunk quick game. Maybe they can unleash something new like screens which is effective against pass rush but notoriously bad in Josh Allen era Bills offense. They do have the personnel to do that now... unless the problem is Josh. We shall see.

 

Wow, I guess we’ll be lucky to even keep it close against this amazing Jaguars football team…maybe we’ll get lucky, though.

[mbowman14]

5 hours ago, Simon said:

I would suggest some folks are unconsciously using the term "trap" game to mean a letdown game.

While I'm not convinced a team puts out poor efforts because they are looking ahead, I have no doubt teams can put out poor efforts because they were looking behind, i.e. after a big win over a dangerous rival.

Emotional investment is the key factor to a trap or letdown game. The fact the Bills had 10 days off to re-charge should give them 0 reason to be flat. Not to mention the London game has to have left a sour taste in the mouths of the returning players and coaches. They’ll be motivated with 10 days off and a prime time game at home against an opponent that the vets owe some payback.

[boco357]

For me, I still have nightmares of Doug Pederson coaching the Eagles and  running the ball down our throat and Wentz looking like Montana a few years ago.

Edited September 18 by boco357
Spelling

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, mbowman14 said:

Emotional investment is the key factor to a trap or letdown game. The fact the Bills had 10 days off to re-charge should give them 0 reason to be flat. Not to mention the London game has to have left a sour taste in the mouths of the returning players and coaches. They’ll be motivated with 10 days off and a prime time game at home against an opponent that the vets owe some payback.

Just feels like this is one of those barometer games for McDermott 

Even his biggest proponents would have to admit there are games where he just hasn't had the team ready to play.

Even his biggest critics (me) also must admit he gets the team to rise to the challenge like last years run.

Allen gets no pass here either. He's had some dreadful games too like Jets and Denver last year.

With the upcoming stretch of road games, really need a solid win this week.

[SCBills]

This is honestly a great point. 
 

I think a lot of us will think, hmm.. maybe this could be the year.. if we come out and actually take care of business against this random team we keep struggling against. 
 

 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Just feels like this is one of those barometer games for McDermott 

Even his biggest proponents would have to admit there are games where he just hasn't had the team ready to play.

Even his biggest critics (me) also must admit he gets the team to rise to the challenge like last years run.

Allen gets no pass here either. He's had some dreadful games too like Jets and Denver last year.

With the upcoming stretch of road games, really need a solid win this week.

Ok, but even when the Bills lose, it is always a very close game. No other coach in the league keeps it close like McDermott has. I would say that is an example of his team always being ready to play and ready to compete. Even Andy Reid can't say that. His team got blown out by the Broncos last year and lost at least one other game by multiple scores.

 

So, I see what you are saying, but I think Bills fans are just incredibly spoiled by the fact that the Bills are so prepared and so competitive in every game (literally EVERY game), so when things go even a little bit poorly, they make statements like these. It has caused expectations to skyrocket compared to most teams, even the really good ones.

[Gregg]

Get to 3-0 and then get ready for a tough 3 week stretch at Bal, at Hou, at NYJ. Three tough road games so hopefully they can go into that stretch 3-0. Baltimore is desperate. Houston is a good team with a lot of weapons on offense. The Jets games especially at MetLife are usually tough games.

[Rockinon]

The Bills are about to open a can of whoop-ass. What ever history Buffalo has with this team is completely irrelevant. What matters is who is more talented now. Who is more prepared now. Who is better coached now.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

The jaguars are a team that can get right and be an issue down the line. Pound the ***** out of these guys and put another possible playoff team down 0-3. These decent AFC teams can’t ever lose enough. Keep letting the Ravens/Jags/ can’t lose enough 

[Mat68]

I think on Monday at home Buffalo has an offensive explosion.  I 100% think the Jaguars DC is going to make an effort to stop the Bills run game.  By doing so the passing game is dynamic and lethal.  3-4 passing Tds before half.  Depending on the defense getting more turnovers the second half might be similar to Miami.  A few big plays early might be too much for Jacksonville to withstand and the game is broken open.  

[zow2]

McDermott is great in these revenge type games, in the regular season anyway.  So I think the Bills play sharp and win but of course it won't be easy. It rarely is, unless the random Miami game.

[ToGoGo]

Some positive vibes before the game:
 

 

 

 

[Gregg]

Jags posted white jerseys for Monday. Bills haven't posted anything yet. Either blue over white or all blues.

 

[Big Turk]

10 hours ago, PoundingDog said:

I quoted Dolphins game to show that the Bills and jags faced the same running attack from the Dolphins on the same field for a somewhat measure of run defense of the Jags.

 

Last year's game showed why it's a bad matchup. We ran a total 29 yards on 14 tries and 14 of the yards was from Alan. Assuming we can run on them without doing anything special is far fetched in my opinion. When you can't run, and then facing a top notch D-line with pass rushing abilities is bad for your passing scheme looking to big plays. That was the Bills problem last year. And that was the problem for the Dolphins week 1 until the Tyreek Hill 80 yard TD play. 

 

We all have reasons to believe Brady won't use last year's script and hope for a 80 yard TD play to beat Jags next Monday. But it will be a challenge. More than likely we have to win by passing the ball. But it might be dink and dunk quick game. Maybe they can unleash something new like screens which is effective against pass rush but notoriously bad in Josh Allen era Bills offense. They do have the personnel to do that now... unless the problem is Josh. We shall see.

 

 

That was still under Dorsey who had a pedestrian run game and relied on Allen a lot throwing.

 

I'm not saying they won't have similar issues, but I don't think Brady gets away from it...I think he continue to utilize the ground game and try and wear them down over the course of a game and mix in some shots and play action.  

33 minutes ago, MJS said:

Ok, but even when the Bills lose, it is always a very close game. No other coach in the league keeps it close like McDermott has. I would say that is an example of his team always being ready to play and ready to compete. Even Andy Reid can't say that. His team got blown out by the Broncos last year and lost at least one other game by multiple scores.

 

So, I see what you are saying, but I think Bills fans are just incredibly spoiled by the fact that the Bills are so prepared and so competitive in every game (literally EVERY game), so when things go even a little bit poorly, they make statements like these. It has caused expectations to skyrocket compared to most teams, even the really good ones.

 

In today's NFL it is beyond absurd the Bills have gone almost 3 full seasons between losing by more than 6 points. 

[Rockinon]

I think the Bills are going to continue to mix things up on offense and the Jags defense will be on their heels trying to figure out what comes next. I see this as a game where the Bills simply out class an inferior team. And on defense, I think it will be a similar scenario. People keep bringing up history, but none of that matters.

[eball]

10 hours ago, Special K said:

 

My definition of a trap game would be a game vs. a very bad team sandwiched in between games vs. 2 really good teams.

 

For example, if your schedule was home vs. KC, @Carolina, then home vs. SF, the Carolina game would be considered a trap game.

 

Especially if you have already beaten KC in this scenario......you would still be high off the win vs. KC, and looking forward to the big matchup vs. SF and completely overlooking Carolina.

 

Well coached, disciplined teams with good player leadership do not fall for the trap game scenario, not to mention that Jax is too good a team to be even considered a "trap game" IMO.

 

Very well explained, however studies show that in the NFL, bad teams don't beat good teams any more frequently in the "trap" scenario than under other circumstances.  The bottom line is that in the NFL the margin between victory and defeat is razor thin and taking any game for granted is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Cash]

9 hours ago, Simon said:

I would suggest some folks are unconsciously using the term "trap" game to mean a letdown game.

While I'm not convinced a team puts out poor efforts because they are looking ahead, I have no doubt teams can put out poor efforts because they were looking behind, i.e. after a big win over a dangerous rival.

 

I agree with this.  The "any given Sunday" part is very real, as said adamantly by a couple posters upthread.  NFL teams are all super good, and even a bad team (on their best day) is good enough to beat just about anyone, unless that someone is a better team also on their best day.  And the players, while absolutely the best of the best of the best, are still human beings and fundamentally imperfect.  Is it possible for some (probably not all) players to be less than their best on a given week, because they're either overconfident after a big win, or because they're mentally unfocused due to already starting to think about the following week's matchup?  Yeah, that's possible.  I would imagine it happens some of the time, to some of the players.  (Not necessarily the same guys every time.)  Is that enough to produce a quantifiable statistical effect for either "trap games" or "letdown games"?  Clearly not, because we can't find either!  But there's a lot of noise in there - these guys are professionals, most are capable of fully focusing on the upcoming opponent with no letdown or distractions, AND crappy teams don't always play well enough to take advantage of a mental lapse by a favorite.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

Ok, but even when the Bills lose, it is always a very close game. No other coach in the league keeps it close like McDermott has. I would say that is an example of his team always being ready to play and ready to compete. Even Andy Reid can't say that. His team got blown out by the Broncos last year and lost at least one other game by multiple scores.

 

So, I see what you are saying, but I think Bills fans are just incredibly spoiled by the fact that the Bills are so prepared and so competitive in every game (literally EVERY game), so when things go even a little bit poorly, they make statements like these. It has caused expectations to skyrocket compared to most teams, even the really good ones.

I don't disagree with what you are saying. 

I would just comment that losing a close game to an inferior opponent (Jets, Jags, Broncos, Pats) last year doesn't mean they were prepared for those games just because it was a close loss. I'd argue even a close win against a bad Giants team was bad coaching. 

But as you said, this happens to all teams and all coaches. 

They just can't afford to come out flat on national TV against an 0-2 opponent that is desperate for a win. 

[PoundingDog]

The Jags interior D-Line has people who are good at run stopping but not much pass rushing ability. Their linebackers are strong, led by 2022 1st rounder pick and Kincaid's teammate at Utah Devin Lloyd. Under Dorsey, the Bills offense is more predictable thus allowing them to match up the bills better. Last week the Browns and Watson actually passed a lot from their heavy personnel set because of matchup they saw.  I do believe Brady and Allen will surely take note of that, and frankly the Bills personnel are better suited now to do that; I can see the Bills using more 12 personnel grouping on Monday.

 

The big surprise is Jags offense. On paper, they have talent who panned out in the past. A #1 over pick QB (not a bust), Evan Engram is probably better than any Bills TE receiving wise. Christian Kirk, Davis, Thomas on paper is better than the Bills counterpart. Travis Etienne is definitely better than what the Bills have. Yet they underperformed significantly. Their O-Line tackles had issues with both Miami and Cleveland. Being 0-2, I'd imagine Doug Peterson will empty his bags on Monday night. 

 

If the Bills can run on Jags consistently, even with their heavy personnel grouping, I'd say it's a new era of the Bills offense since we drafted Josh Allen - truly "run first". But chances are we will do the smart thing of running on their pass rush grouping and passing on their heavy grouping. Josh just needs to be patient and not forcing things, even when things are not going well. Keep an eye on Josh Hines-Allen vs Dawkins and Brown. He has beaten them both 1-on-1 in the past causing issues. OBD's Chris Brown and others have repeatedly pointed out that this year Brady has not used more than 5 blockers at all so there will be plenty of 1-on-1's in the pass setting. Basically he's telling Josh, we give you max set of targets, you deal with handling pass rush and finding the open guy.  

[MikePJ76]