Bills vs Jags Game Week Thread - MNF

[FLFan]

1 hour ago, PoundingDog said:

The Jags interior D-Line has people who are good at run stopping but not much pass rushing ability. Their linebackers are strong, led by 2022 1st rounder pick and Kincaid's teammate at Utah Devin Lloyd. Under Dorsey, the Bills offense is more predictable thus allowing them to match up the bills better. Last week the Browns and Watson actually passed a lot from their heavy personnel set because of matchup they saw.  I do believe Brady and Allen will surely take note of that, and frankly the Bills personnel are better suited now to do that; I can see the Bills using more 12 personnel grouping on Monday.

 

The big surprise is Jags offense. On paper, they have talent who panned out in the past. A #1 over pick QB (not a bust), Evan Engram is probably better than any Bills TE receiving wise. Christian Kirk, Davis, Thomas on paper is better than the Bills counterpart. Travis Etienne is definitely better than what the Bills have. Yet they underperformed significantly. Their O-Line tackles had issues with both Miami and Cleveland. Being 0-2, I'd imagine Doug Peterson will empty his bags on Monday night. 

 

If the Bills can run on Jags consistently, even with their heavy personnel grouping, I'd say it's a new era of the Bills offense since we drafted Josh Allen - truly "run first". But chances are we will do the smart thing of running on their pass rush grouping and passing on their heavy grouping. Josh just needs to be patient and not forcing things, even when things are not going well. Keep an eye on Josh Hines-Allen vs Dawkins and Brown. He has beaten them both 1-on-1 in the past causing issues. OBD's Chris Brown and others have repeatedly pointed out that this year Brady has not used more than 5 blockers at all so there will be plenty of 1-on-1's in the pass setting. Basically he's telling Josh, we give you max set of targets, you deal with handling pass rush and finding the open guy.  

You greatly overestimate the talent level of the Jags offense.  To this point, Lawrence has been the epitome of under performing talent in his career.  Very inconsistent.  Thomas is a rookie.  Davis is the definition of pedestrian, and Kirk barely got in the game last week.  Etienne has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in his career but less than 4 last year and so far this year.  He gets heavy usage but to little great effect.  I would not trade Cook for him at this point. I would take Kincaid and Knox over Engram and whoever as well.  About the only thing that concerns me about the jags on offense is Trevor scrambling.

 

 

[DrBob806]

13 hours ago, Einstein said:

I hate playing the Jaguars.

That whole AFC South is blah to me. A Paul Tagliabue creation, a weird combination of geography. 

[Rubes]

16 minutes ago, FLFan said:

You greatly overestimate the talent level of the Jags offense.  To this point, Lawrence has been the epitome of under performing talent in his career.  Very inconsistent.  Thomas is a rookie.  Davis is the definition of pedestrian, and Kirk barely got in the game last week.  Etienne has averaged 4.4 yards per carry in his career but less than 4 last year and so far this year.  He gets heavy usage but to little great effect.  I would not trade Cook for him at this point. I would take Kincaid and Knox over Engram and whoever as well.  About the only thing that concerns me about the jags on offense is Trevor scrambling.

 

 

 

Sure, but nevertheless the guy is 2-0 in his career against the Bills. No matter how underwhelming he is or how poor his teams are, he still somehow finds a way to win against us. That has to count for something.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Is anyone elsezsurprised they have not made a move at LB? Not even a PS guy? I don't think theychave a current LB on PS they can bring up.

Are they down to 4 healthy LBs now? 

[FLFan]

2 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Sure, but nevertheless the guy is 2-0 in his career against the Bills. No matter how underwhelming he is or how poor his teams are, he still somehow finds a way to win against us. That has to count for something.

 

In the Urban Meyer debacle, I think you would be hard pressed to give Trevor any credit for winning that game.  The Bills offense simply stunk and lost it.  Last year, his scrambling killed the Bills, so yes, he gets some credit for that win, but it does not change the basic point about him.  He is not elite, very inconsistent, and has underperformed expectations.  That said, he will now probably have the game of his life on Monday. 

[MasterStrategist]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Is anyone elsezsurprised they have not made a move at LB? Not even a PS guy? I don't think theychave a current LB on PS they can bring up.

Are they down to 4 healthy LBs now? 

They have 5 healthy.  Dorian, Spector, Morrow, Buffalo Joe, and Ulo.

 

All I'd guess, they don't expect Bernard to miss more than 4 weeks.  And, they don't see anyone worth adding/replacing a current PS player

Edited September 18 by MasterStrategist

[DrBob806]

On 9/15/2024 at 4:19 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

Jaguars lose at home to the Browns.

Browns have some serious offensive line issues, but moved the ball at will in the 1st half on Jax. 2nd half, not so much (lots of penalties on Cle).

 

The Browns D shut Jax down all day, with the exception of a 66 yard bomb. The Bills D & Browns D are similar. I just don't see Jax doing much on offense unless Lawrence makes plays with his legs.

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

Browns have some serious offensive line issues, but moved the ball at will in the 1st half on Jax. 2nd half, not so much (lots of penalties on Cle).

 

The Browns D shut Jax down all day, with the exception of a 66 yard bomb. The Bills D & Browns D are similar. I just don't see Jax doing much on offense unless Lawrence makes plays with his legs.

doesn't he use his legs on every play?

[947]

45 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Is anyone elsezsurprised they have not made a move at LB? Not even a PS guy? I don't think theychave a current LB on PS they can bring up.

Are they down to 4 healthy LBs now? 

They have 5 healthy LBs going into this game: Dorian, Spector, Morrow, Andreesen, & Ulofoshio.

 

I guess they feel OK with that, but I am surprised they didn't at least add a LB to the PS.

[JP51]

1 hour ago, Rubes said:

 

Sure, but nevertheless the guy is 2-0 in his career against the Bills. No matter how underwhelming he is or how poor his teams are, he still somehow finds a way to win against us. That has to count for something.

 

SO true... we have got to find a way to beat these guys at some point. they have been a thorn in our sides... Monday night at home... tough schedule.. gotta find a way to beat them.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

They have 5 healthy.  Dorian, Spector, Morrow, Buffalo Joe, and Ulo.

 

All I'd guess, they don't expect Bernard to miss more than 4 weeks.  And, they don't see anyone worth adding/replacing a current PS player

And they only play 2 LB's at a time, and none of these guys are full-time ST's like Matakevitch was. Five seems adequate for now assuming Bernard is back in a couple of weeks. 

[Cash]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

This is a "throw out the records" game to me. 

An 0-2 team who feels like their backs are against the wall and are desperate for a win. A team who has historically given the Bills fits anyway. When was the last time the Bills comfortably beat the Jaguars and without all of us having heart palpitations? I genuinely can't remember.

Two keys to the game:

1.) Travis Etienne vs the middle of our defense. I have faith in our ability to contain the edges in the run game, but we have a propensity to get gashed up the middle. Etienne can also be a weapon in the passing game against our inexperienced linebackers. This will be a huge test for Spector, Williams, Lewis, and our safeties. 

2.) The Jaguars play man-to-man defense 68% of the time so far this season. The Bills will need to have their man-beater plays ready. It could be a big week for Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid. It could also be the biggest week yet for Josh Allen running the football.

If the Bills can limit Travis Etienne and find ways to get open against the Jags' man coverage, they win. If Etienne runs wild or the Bills pass catchers have trouble getting open, it could be closer than anyone would like, and may spell loss number one on the season.
 

 

I largely agree with this, but would add that this could be the week for a deep shot to connect.

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, DrBob806 said:

That whole AFC South is blah to me. A Paul Tagliabue creation, a weird combination of geography. 

I couldn’t agree more! With all of the changes through the years I find it hard to believe that the NFL hadn’t reset the Divisions. Somebody suggests it every year but the NFL ignores it. With 17 games and 4 team divisions, there are less and less intra-division games. Just bite the bullet and realign everything geographically. Just like cleaning out your sock drawer, it needs to be done once a decade. 👍

[The Wiz]

 

 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Interesting side note...not sure if it has been brought up yet in the thread as I haven't read thru all of it.

 

Jags have lost their last 7 regular season games going back to last year while the Bills have won their last 7.

 

Literally two teams going in opposite directions over that time.

they actually lost 7 of their last 8. They beat the panthers in week 17. Still not good for them. 

[Logic]

33 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

I largely agree with this, but would add that this could be the week for a deep shot to connect.

Totally agree. I almost added "this is the week for some deep shots to MVS". ESPECIALLY with the respect that opposing defenses should theoretically start paying to our run game.

[HappyDays]

Likely going to be a good test for our WRs this week. But Josh can also run against man coverage so maybe he'll frustrate them enough to pull them out of it.

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

Curious why we wouldn’t just move Johnson and Bernard to IR for four weeks. Obviously they aren’t playing anytime soon. I’d prefer not to rush them back and have them fully healthy! 

Agree considering that they lost last year and lost to them in Jax when they were horrible. Bills need to TCB against the Jags and get the W. Cannot afford a let down or to overlook them! Don’t give them any hope!!!!

don’t really need to unless they want a temporary roster spot. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Likely going to be a good test for our WRs this week. But Josh can also run against man coverage so maybe he'll frustrate them enough to pull them out of it.

This is a concern. Don’t think we have a true “man beater.” Seems like the one guy who was good at that was Isaiah McKenzie. 

[Scott7975]

3 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This is a concern. Don’t think we have a true “man beater.” Seems like the one guy who was good at that was Isaiah McKenzie. 

the Cook td last week was a man beater. Josh will complete passes.