Alpha's Week 1 recap and film review

[Einstein's Dog]

13 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

And that's my takeaway from the entire receiving corps in this game, having also watched the offense back on the all-22. It is all complementary pieces and role players. The best thing you can say about the group in this game is they made no mistakes. There were no egregious missed blocks that I saw, no dropped passes, no miscommunications. And there were a couple outstanding plays mixed in from Coleman and Shakir.

 

Happy - I think you're being a little too harsh here.  This looks to be a sure-handed pass catching unit.  No diva attitudes hindering an "everyone eats" philosophy.  I didn't see any bad drops of the kind we had from G Davis or McKenzie or even Diggs at the end.  On the other side MH Jr had a bad drop.

 

My fear of not having a top tier WR was the based on the fear of a M Hollins or MVS with a substantial role.  Hollins did well out of the gate, and MVS did as expected.  But it seems like every top tier WR these days comes with a diva attitude - like D Adams last year in a win say that he needs the ball more.  While Kincaid didn't get much, no one expects to hear much complaining from him, he'll take the W.

 

So for me, I think you can say so far this looks like an excellent catch percentage group with a great team first attitude.  

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Or maybe there were external limitations such as wind and game plan.  The wind made deep passes nearly impossible for half the game.  Also the weakness of AZ defense seems like it was covering short and intermediate passes as our players were open all game in that area.  
 

Maybe but my suspicion is we will see more of it as the year goes on. It as windy, no dispute. But I think it is mainly about who they have at receiver. 

 

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

As to grading, I didn’t start at A+ and not work out way down.  I looked at all the factors such as catch% - 87%. YAC % 39%, TDs 2, zero penalties, zero drops, zero fumbles, 7 - 1st downs.   

 

Fair enough. I tend to look and say how many plays did the receiver really make the play happen. I think Shakir, Coleman and Hollins (once each) did. The other 9 receiver catches were to me a case of just doing the basics well. And while I accept there is merit in just doing the basics well consistently. It needs more volume in order for me to get excited about it

 

12 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

This was a nearly flawless performance.  

 

 

The receivers didn't make many, if any, mistakes. I agree. But the volume was low. It's why I wouldn't obsess over letter grades. To me it was a performance with some encouragement, but some reasons the retain a healthy scepticism as they head to week 2 as well. If we start to get that sort of performance as the "floor" for this receiver group going forward then I'll be less concerned about whether the ceiling is capped by their lack of difference makers on the boundary.

[GASabresIUFan]

@GunnerBill  Volume?  That isn’t up to the receivers.  That’s up to the OC and QB.  This was a low volume game because that is the offense we are running. It will probably be a low volume season.  Brady’s goal this season is to control the game.  That means for running, more West Coast type passing, and probably less offensive plays run. 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFan said:

@GunnerBill  Volume?  That isn’t up to the receivers.  That’s up to the OC and QB.  This was a low volume game because that is the offense we are running. It will probably be a low volume season.  Brady’s goal this season is to control the game.  That means for running, more West Coast type passing, and probably less offensive plays run. 

 

The argument is that if the most we expect of the WR’s is 3-4 catches each with around 40-50 yards, that’s not gonna be A+ games.

 

From a WR perspective, Devonta Smith and AJ Brown had 12 catches for 200+ yards and a TD last week. Our entire group had 12 catches for 151 yards and 2 TD’s.

 

our group was more efficient and had more TD’s. The Eagles group was much more explosive. I think there is a difference and part of that is philosophy and the way they are used.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

@GunnerBill  Volume?  That isn’t up to the receivers.  That’s up to the OC and QB.  This was a low volume game because that is the offense we are running. It will probably be a low volume season.  Brady’s goal this season is to control the game.  That means for running, more West Coast type passing, and probably less offensive plays run. 

 

 

Of course it isn't. But that is the discussion here... some people look at letter grading (which again, I am not particularly a fan of) and say "they did everything they were asked A+" and some people say "sure they did, but you have to consider how much was asked of them in the way you grade." 

 

I'll give you a comparison - when you do your end of high school exams here in the UK there are certain subjects (languages and math) where you can choose the paper you do. If you want to get an A or A+ you have to do the advanced paper. You can get up to a B doing the intermediate paper, even if you get 100% on the paper it's a B because it asks less of you. I think @Kirby Jackson would say that is a metaphor for a game where the receivers did almost everything right but only had 12 receptions between them (and only 14 targets). 

[GASabresIUFan]

57 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

From a WR perspective, Devonta Smith and AJ Brown had 12 catches for 200+ yards and a TD last week. Our entire group had 12 catches for 151 yards and 2 TD’s.

Thanks for bringing up the Eagles.  

Let’s compare the stat lines of the two wideout groups.

 

Philly 12/18 203 yards 1 TD

Buff 12/14 152 yards 2 TDs

 

Those are the stats for both teams’ receiver groups.  Philly only had 2 receivers catch balls, Buffalo had 5.   Which offense is more vulnerable to have a player taken away and becoming less effective because of it?  Brown and Smith are exciting players, but which group had a bigger impact?  The Bills group was extremely more efficient, more diverse and had more TDs.  I’ll take the 2nd stat line.

Edited September 11 by GASabresIUFan

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Happy - I think you're being a little too harsh here.

 

You think that was harsh? I complimented them for making no mistakes. If you're going to have a group of role players with no dominant individual player, that's what needs to happen. Everyone needs to play their role and make very few or no mistakes. If you have AJ Brown, Davonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley, you can afford some mistakes. In our offense there is very little margin for error. The skill players to their credit walked that line and passed their first test. Shakir and Coleman even went above and beyond a couple times. If we can do that every week combined with Allen playing as well as he did, I think we can put up 30 on just about anybody.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You think that was harsh? I complimented them for making no mistakes. If you're going to have a group of role players with no dominant individual player, that's what needs to happen. Everyone needs to play their role and make very few or no mistakes. If you have AJ Brown, Davonta Smith, and Saquon Barkley, you can afford some mistakes. In our offense there is very little margin for error. The skill players to their credit walked that line and passed their first test. Shakir and Coleman even went above and beyond a couple times. If we can do that every week combined with Allen playing as well as he did, I think we can put up 30 on just about anybody.

 

I agree the ***** outta this. 

[zman44]

Just one perspective on the WR play from last week:

 

Two other things to note from this, Arizona apparently didn’t get much separation and the Dolphins D didn’t fair well against the Jags WRs

[RoscoeParrish]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Thanks for bringing up the Eagles.  

Let’s compare the stat lines of the two wideout groups.

 

Philly 12/18 203 yards 1 TD

Buff 12/14 152 yards 2 TDs

 

Those are the stats for both teams’ receiver groups.  Philly only had 2 receivers catch balls, Buffalo had 5.   Which offense is more vulnerable to have a player taken away and becoming less effective because of it?  Brown and Smith are exciting players, but which group had a bigger impact?  The Bills group was extremely more efficient, more diverse and had more TDs.  I’ll take the 2nd stat line.

I think Smith and Brown are harder to take away, personally. Both are really good WR’s.

[hondo in seattle]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

What a way to start the season...I won't have time to do one of these every week, but I was just very interested in this first week as we finally got to see the veil removed on a lot of the unknowns.  I spent most of the time reviewing the offense as that was what I was most interested in and excited to see since I have limited time.  Feel free to expand on the defensive stuff for anyone with more insight there...

 

QB - Grade A++

Its almost a waste of time to write anything here.  He was a beast Sunday and showed why he is an MVP favorite this year.  

 

OL - Grade A-

This was certainly an area I had high interest coming into this game and was excited to see.  Between life after Morse, Spencer's new deal, O'Cyrus 2nd season, etc it had a lot of interest for me.  

• I have to say 4 out of the 5 guys on the line really had a very good to outstanding game.  The only one who didn't was O'Cyrus, and while it wasn't a disaster, it definitely was a down game for him and is what kept this groups grade from being an A+.  I am still not too concerned, but he also had some struggles in the preseason games, so def something to keep an eye on.  
• Spencer and Dion looked like one of the better tackle tandems in the league this week.  Some early rust with some penalties, 2 on Dawkins who only had 6 all year last year.  But outside of that, both had an outstanding game IMHO.  One of my favorite plays of the whole day was watching Dion road grade in front of Shakir on his TD catch.  It was a thing of beauty, and if you haven't seen it, go watch a replay from the endzone angle.  
• Edwards had a very good game as well and McGovern didn't miss a beat replacing Morse out there and had a great debut as our new center.  

 

WR's - Grade A+

This group looked good this week.  Not only were guys getting open regularly for Allen, but they were flying all over the field blocking for anyone running with the ball on catches, runs, or Allen taking off.  This was a very bad day for the "our WR's suck crowd" because they played excellent team ball and consistently were giving Allen easy looks. 

• Its one game...so despite the stellar showing, it does not yet prove anything.  But for all the disaster and doom and gloom, this group went out and said "Hold my beer" week 1.  
• Coleman could have had an even bigger game than he did.  Allen had him on an easy slant for a TD on one of Allens TD' runs.  Allen said he should have thrown it to Keon, and he isn't wrong, Keon beat his man for an easy TD on the slant.  But Allen still scored as he saw also the easy run lane to get in as well.   And Keon was getting open and position all game, but more importantly, he was flying to the ball as a blocker when the ball went elsewhere. 
  • My favorite Keon moment was when Shakir scored and he asked Shakir if he wants the ball and he said yes and Keon immediately went to the stands to try and get it for him.  Shakir had to actually call him off of trying to get it as they needed to get off the field.  
• For the "Hollins is a scrub crowd"...well go watch his film Sunday, if that is what a "scrub" looks like give me more "scrubs".  He ran crisp routes, was open on several other plays where the ball went somewhere else and he was mauling people as a blocker on other plays he was out there.  I said it in preseason...he is our WR5-WR6 essentially as a receiving option (Kincaid, Shakir, Keon, Samuel and then maybe Cook/Davis) probably be end of season.  And I think you will be hard pressed to find a better WR5/6 on most teams.  
• Shakir - This man is a beast.  He was open all game long, and not only that, despite his size was out there blocking with the best of them when he wasn't getting the ball.  And when he gets the ball, good luck tackling Deebo-Lite.  And he is emerging as a leader for this group, go listen to his Mic'd up for this game.   I can only imagine what he would do with 8-10 targets a game.  

 

TE's - Grade A

On one hand, it feels weird giving a group an A that had 2 catches, but honestly, they did what was asked of them consistently all game.  AZ focused on Kincaid and he sold his routes that opened up the field for everyone else.  

• This is EXACTLY what I said all offseason to the "but Diggs is gone to draw double teams" crowd.  It was unrealistic to think that no one else was going to attract extra attention just because Diggs is gone.  And I pointed out guys like Kincaid, spying Allen, and trying to defend Keon's size is going to take extra attention.  Literally all 3 of those things were on full display week 1. 
  • DISCLAIMER:  Its just one week, we still need to see what this all looks like as DC's get more film and try to adjust to this new look offense.   But none the less, this is exactly what I and many others expected to see.  

 

RB's - Grade A-

I wanted to give this group an A, but dinged them a little for the efficiency drop later in the game.  But Cook looked fast and more decisive than he had looked to me in pre-season, and Davis showed why there is so much hype on him.

• Interesting is Ty, he is clearly the passing down RB and Davis right now is the guy who spells Cook.  And that is because Ty is better at pass pro than Cook, and Davis (who will probably prove to be the best at pass pro by seasons end) is a rookie and they aren't ready to trust him in the 2min drill like Ty when he took every snap on the TD before the half.  

 

Because of my limited time today, I again didn't spend as much time on the defense.  So here are just some quick notes that stood out from watching the game live and skimming through it in review.

• How does Rapp keep hurting teammates?  I can't think of another player who scared me when he was out there of hurting his teammates.  
• Rousseau was a beast Sunday.  He looked like one of the best DE's in the league for this first week.  Even on Von's sack, it was Groot who made that sack possible IMHO.   
• Von looks much better than last year, but it still isn't "vintage" Von which I think has always been an unrealistic hope.  But it was encouraging to see that he has some value to this team.  
• Babich impressed me with how they adjusted in the 2nd half.  To go from what felt like a very scary first half (in terms of the rest of the season), to holding them to just 3 offensive points in the 2nd half is the kind of stuff I want to see from a DC.  
• Bernard seemed very frustrated early on in that first half, but it was great to see him settle down and help lead the defense back. 
• Dorian had a so-so game, his second half was better than his first.
• Did not expect to see so much Ingram this game, and didn't have a lot of expectations coming in, but from what I saw he played a pretty good game.  

 

Good write up, Alpha.  Thanks for doing this.  But let me ask you about a couple of grades...

RBs: A-    To me, an example of an "A" game is when OJ and Braxton combined for 300+ yards against the Pats.  On Sunday, our RBs had 24 rushes for 91 yards (3.8 ypc)  and no TDs against the Cards.  Their production was very pedestrian.  While the run game looked good in the beginning, by the end of the game I would have graded it a "C."  

 

WR's: A+  On a different September morning, Eric Moulds, Josh Reed, and Peerless Price combined for 381 receiving yards.  That's an A+ performance.   Our wideouts combined for less than half that against Arizona: 152 yards.  The yardage total is nothing to scream about but they didn't drop anything (hoorah!) and contributed 2 scores so I'd personally give them a "B."

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I think Alpha is a bit over the top with his grades.  I give the WRs a solid B+ because they were getting open, and their blocking was very good.  I'd give the RBs and TEs each a B.  TE maybe B-, but clearly the Cards decided to take away Kincaid. 

And I think our friend Kirby Jackson is really suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias with respect to the WRs.  I fear Kirby decided going into the season that the WRs would suck, and that nothing will change his mind.  Like it or not, and clearly Kirby doesn't, the ball will get spread around a lot in Brady's offense, just as happened Sunday.  Total yardage was lower primarily because of the defense not performing well in the first half thus taking away a lot of time from the offense.

 

I have no issue with your grades as I don't expect everyone to have the same grading scale as me or anyone else for that other.  For me, I have a high value on the execution and the dirty work, and that stuff popped for me from this game, which is where my grades are gonna differ more than some others, which is fine.  And for me in reviewing the film, it was honestly one of the best group efforts I can recall seeing in that regard to go along with all of them making the plays when they got their targets as well.  

[RoscoeParrish]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Thanks for bringing up the Eagles.  

Let’s compare the stat lines of the two wideout groups.

 

Philly 12/18 203 yards 1 TD

Buff 12/14 152 yards 2 TDs

 

Those are the stats for both teams’ receiver groups.  Philly only had 2 receivers catch balls, Buffalo had 5.   Which offense is more vulnerable to have a player taken away and becoming less effective because of it?  Brown and Smith are exciting players, but which group had a bigger impact?  The Bills group was extremely more efficient, more diverse and had more TDs.  I’ll take the 2nd stat line.

Just wanted to add to this:

 

We can look at it from a defensive perspective.

 

On Monday morning, is the Cardinals defense going over film and talking about how they had no answers for the Bills WR’s? IMO, maybe a little bit, but I don’t think it’s a large point of emphasis, as the best day at WR had 4 catches total, and one of them was a chunk play contested catch where he won the route and made a GREAT play on the ball.

 

Are they talking about how they struggled to stop the run? Again, maybe a little bit, but again probably not large as we had some early game success and they adjusted well with run blitzes.

 

Are they talking about how they failed to contain Josh Allen and failed to have their defense swarm him on his scrambling and impromptu rushes? IMO, yes. Clear yes.

 

Using that logic, imo Josh deserves the solo A+. He was the one the defense had no answers for. The defense would give themselves a D in how they guarded him. I don’t think they’d give themselves a D for the running backs or WR’s and I think they’d give themselves an A for bottling up the TE’s.

Edited September 11 by RoscoeParrish

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Thunderstruck said:

Nice analysis and I agree on many of the points. One important question for you:

 

Had the Cardinals gone down and scored a game winning TD, would your grades have been the same? After seeing so many of these post-game report cards over the years (not just by you, of course), I am curious about this.

 

 

Fair question...and I will give you my honest answer...Yes.  

 

Keep in mind, I did not give a team grade here or defensive grades.  I do not consider the Bills grade overall an A for this game, and you can see some previous posts of mine in this thread stating that as well.  My grades were only on the offensive groups and how well they executed their individual jobs.  I would not change my grades on the offensive groups because the ST gave up a TD KO return and then the defense would have gave up a game ending drive in your question above.  

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, RoscoeParrish said:

The argument is that if the most we expect of the WR’s is 3-4 catches each with around 40-50 yards, that’s not gonna be A+ games.

 

From a WR perspective, Devonta Smith and AJ Brown had 12 catches for 200+ yards and a TD last week. Our entire group had 12 catches for 151 yards and 2 TD’s.

 

our group was more efficient and had more TD’s. The Eagles group was much more explosive. I think there is a difference and part of that is philosophy and the way they are used.

 

Our WR's were not given an A+ because of production alone.  It is totally ok if you or others want to grade on a different scale where the primary emphasis is on individual statistical production.  I don't expect everyone to have the same grading scale, but it seems pretty pointless to keep disputing the grades over stats with people who factored more into the grade than just the stats.

 

I am gonna post this play now a third time.  Not to be argumentative, but to illustrate the difference in how some of us graded their performances.  If you can't understand how this is A+ execution from Hollins off the snap, Shakir with the ball, and Coleman wiping out his defender (and Dawkins destroying the safety) then you are not going to understand why my grade was an A+ and why some others agreed with that.  Which is again fine, everyone is free to grade using their own scale and factors, but just illustrating the difference in grading with an emphasis on production vs grading where execution, blocking, etc is as highly valued as production.  There is no TD on this play if any one of those players did not do what they did on this play, and the only one of the 4 that will see this play on a stat sheet is Shakir.  

 

 

Edited September 11 by Alphadawg7

[RoscoeParrish]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Our WR's were not given an A+ because of production alone.  And no disrespect, but I am not sure how many times this needs to be said.  It is totally ok if you or others want to grade on a different scale where the primary emphasis is on individual statistical production.  I don't expect everyone to have the same grading scale, but it seems pretty pointless to keep disputing the grades over stats with people who factored more into the grade than just the stats.

 

I am gonna post this play now a third time.  Not to be argumentative, but to illustrate the difference in how some of us graded their performances.  If you can't understand how this is A+ execution from Hollins off the snap, Shakir with the ball, and Coleman wiping out his defender (and Dawkins destroying the safety) then you are not going to understand why my grade was an A+ and why some others agreed with that.  Which is fine, everyone is free to grade using their own scale, but just illustrating the difference in grading with an emphasis on production vs grading where execution, blocking, etc is as highly values as production.  There is no TD on this play if any one of those players did not do what they did on this play, and the only one of the 4 that will see this play on a stat sheet is Shakir.  

 

 

I hear you! 
 

You are certainly entitled to your own grade, wasn’t trying to dispute what you said.
 

Was just giving my thoughts on the grades in general based on the NFL at large.

 

I think we can all agree that week 1 was a promising day for the group. Coleman in particular has a great start to build on and we haven’t even seen Samuel fully healthy/involved yet.

[Last Guy on the Bench]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, no. I’m grading the impact that people had on the game. The majority of the offense did their jobs. They were okay and Josh was exceptional. I’m not handing out an “A” to a group that caught 2 balls or a RB group that averaged 3.8 YPC. Yes, I realize those are statistics. Those are statitistics that do not represent dominance. I continue to use Gabe at KC because that represents dominance. Gabe isn’t a great football player but on that day it was an A+ performance. If we are calling this an A+ performance, what was that? A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++?

If I could translate: "I'm not grading statistics. I'm grading statistics."

 

BTW, I'm not saying your grades are wrong are Alpha's are right. You are just using a different lens than he is, but arguing as if it's the same lens. And your lens doesn't seem to have much of your own analysis to it - it's just the numbers that everyone can see. Whatever Alpha's grades are or aren't, I like it when people take the time to watch and evaluate play beyond what I can see on first glance watching the game or read about it on the stats sheets. Doesn't mean they are always right of course. But they add a lot more value than whatever it is you are doing here. (To be fair, I like a lot of your posts. Just can't understand why you are so cranked about someone else's grading scheme. And why you won't at least critique it on its own terms, if you disagree with it.)

Edited September 11 by Last Guy on the Bench

[Rockinon]

I agree on everything except one. Allen loses the + in A+ due to holding the ball too long and turning the ball over. Otherwise, nice job.

Edited September 11 by Rockinon

[Alphadawg7]

45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good write up, Alpha.  Thanks for doing this.  But let me ask you about a couple of grades...

 

Thanks and no problem

 

45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

RBs: A-    To me, an example of an "A" game is when OJ and Braxton combined for 300+ yards against the Pats.  On Sunday, our RBs had 24 rushes for 91 yards (3.8 ypc)  and no TDs against the Cards.  Their production was very pedestrian.  While the run game looked good in the beginning, by the end of the game I would have graded it a "C."  

 

The RB's also caught passes, including a couple of big ones.  I have yet to see anyone discussing the RB grade to even mention the passes they caught.  Otherwise I would have given them a lower grade.

 

45 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

WR's: A+  On a different September morning, Eric Moulds, Josh Reed, and Peerless Price combined for 381 receiving yards.  That's an A+ performance.   Our wideouts combined for less than half that against Arizona: 152 yards.  The yardage total is nothing to scream about but they didn't drop anything (hoorah!) and contributed 2 scores so I'd personally give them a "B."

 

To avoid repeating the same answer, I will just direct you to my post just above this I just responded to another poster that contains the Shakir TD highlight.  I use that clip because that play has multiple replay angles where you can clearly see the impact our other receivers as well as Dawkins made to make that play happen.  

 

If we reserve A grades for just the highest statistical games, a lot of great individual efforts are going to get missed.  Perfect example:  Kirby keeps citing the Gabe Davis vs KC game as an A+.  Yet Gabe Davis got the game ball vs Dallas last year when he had 0 targets and no stats because of how much impacted the game to spring open our running game as a blocker.  I would be everything I own in this world that everyone of his teammates, coaches, and the FO would give Gabe Davis an A+ for both games...one was an NFL record playoff game, the other was a game with 0 stats in a game.

 

When I am reviewing this, I am doing so more from a coaches eye on what I want to see these players do with their assignment each given play.  And for week 1, the receivers execution in all phases of the game were at a high level for me personally.  And when there are only 23 pass attempts, and 9 people caught 18 of the completions, no one person nor the group as a whole are going to have gaudy stats...but that does not also mean they didn't play at a high level either though.  

 

But, this is also how I am grading them, I fully realize not everyone is going to have the same grading scale, and there is nothing wrong with that or how you want to grade them.  Just answering your question about why I did. 

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, I literally have the TEs a C because of the attention that Kincaid attracted. It opened things up for everyone else. Neither of us knows how many plays didn’t happen because someone wasn’t open or where they should be. They did what was asked of them. I’ve said that over and over. That doesn’t get you an A or A+ in my book. You get an A or A+ for dominating. 
 

I continue to use Gabe at KC as the A+ scale. If this was an A+ for the WRs, what grade does Gabe at KC get? To this point, no one has answered that question. I think that I know why. No one, can say with a straight face, that those 2 performances were equivalent.

OK thats fair on the TEs. Depending on what their assignments were of course. Maybe thats a B.  I dunno. I didn't watch film nor do I know what the gameplan was.

 

Obviously Gabe would get an S, since S is higher than A+.