Alpha's Week 1 recap and film review

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

As usual, impressive how well op's spelling and grammar is while typing with pompoms on. 

 

If that was a straight A effort and we only beat the f'n Cardinals by a failed Hail Mary, then I'm officially worried about the rest of the season.

I didn’t give the Bills as a whole an A.  I graded only the offensive groups individually.

 

I wouldn’t give either the D or ST an A.  
 

 

[Allen2Coleman]

3 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Great Job Alphadawg but it seems a lot of grade inflation has seeped into here.  The one I won't  quibble about is Josh Allen, he was MVP  caliber after that careless fumble.  A+ for the receivers seems stupid high and I would like to see more throws high and outside to Coleman, he is exactly as advertised on contested catches.  TEs maybe a B-.

 

As far as Torrence, it seems he had in incredible rookies season and since then he has been spotty, he deserves a very low grade for Sunday.  The entire secondary and LBers seem out of sync, we got lucky at the end with a dropped pass easily could have lost the game.  Which on a very short travel week, if Miami exploits the secondary for massive gains I wont be shocked.

Not the receivers fault there were only 23 passing plays called. With no Gabe Davis there were no drops to be called. Possibly one on Knox if we were to be critical, but I would need to see it again to fully understand what happened there. The receivers had a day!!!

[Last Guy on the Bench]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I did go back through it again (not that I need to justify it to you). Kincaid saw a bunch of attention. If you’re the top receiving threat in an offense you can’t have 1 catch for 11 yards. That certainly doesn’t get an “A” grade!!  Travis Kelce has been the focal point of defenses for a long time. He rarely, if ever, posts that stat line. Kincaid took some pressure off everyone else and they blocked well. That’s why it’s a “C” performance for the TEs. That means average.

 

We are talking about “sticking to our guns.” I said that the WR group would have a few guys that outperformed their fantasy position (55-60). I said that I could see them being like Tyler Lockett who had 79/894/5. If you took each guys game and extrapolated it out (I know this isn’t realistic) you’d have: Coleman 68/867, Shakir 51/714, Samuel (not enough snaps to tell anything). That is the TOP of your depth chart. That is NOT an “A+.” They did what was asked and played well. 

You seem to be grading stats. Which anyone can do. Alpha is grading how well people did what they were asked to do (by the scheme/playcall), in his opinion. You are making no kind of counterargument to what he is actually doing. You're using an entirely different rubric and getting outraged over nothing. 

 

[Allen2Coleman]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

In high school I think it took a 93 to get an A. I figured any more than that was wasted energy but gave me a little cushion. I was an A student with a 93 average when I graduated. No wasted energy. 

 

Grades are funny. 

 

The Bills did what they had to do, and I feel good about most of what I saw. It wasn’t a game you’re going to tell the grandkids about. 

 

 

Damn we only needed a 90 , they didn’t do a lot of that + or - stuff….

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, julian said:

And outta the woodwork come the posters to tell everyone they didn’t like O’Cyrus to begin with lol.

 

 The kid is clearly struggling early this year, I’m going to guess losing the veteran Morse to his left is effecting his play to some degree and he has some work to do to get back on track.

Go look at my posts from the draft pick, while everyone was slobbering on him for what a steal he was, I didn’t like the pick. I realize your not just talking to me here but thought I’d defend my point 

[TBBills Fan]

@Alphadawg7 I agree with everything you wrote.  Including the Rapp comment.  So, I'm with you, hoping they can get him off the field sooner rather than later

[finn]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Allen deserves an A+++ in my book.

Can you imagine if Mahomes or Lamar played a game like Allen played? Heads would explode. Mahomes vaulting over a safety for TD, Lamar throwing lasers all over the field, either one of them accounting for four TDs. Both played meh games and STILL the MVP hype train is high on them. Allen? No big deal. 

[Rocky Landing]

Nice write-up from our eternal optimist, @Alphadawg7. I hope you do these every week!

 

A few thoughts:

• I can't give Allen an A++. That second rushing TD was dangerous. It came on the heels of a designed run play for a TD that was called back because a hold. Two plays later, on second down, Allen scrambles for a TD that injured him. And it just wasn't necessary, IMO. He still had good protection, and plenty of time for one of his receivers to get open, he had Cooke right there for a check-down with only one defender near him, and a good shot at a TD, and it was only second down. I really got the feeling he wanted that recalled rushing TD back. So, because of that play, his earlier fumble, and the fact that he got himself injured, I can only give Allen an A-.
• Unsurprisingly, the D-line is terribly uneven. Groot was elite, and it didn't matter which side he was on. Epenesa, unfortunately... was not. He was utterly helpless against the Cards' LT, and not much better against their RT. This game doesn't write the book on AJ, but he has to be better going forward. Oliver, and Jones were fine. Maybe not Oliver's best game-- he didn't look like the best defensive player on the field-- but the two of them were solid. But, after Groot/Oliver/Jones/Epenesa, our lack of depth was evident.
• I'm really not as high on Von Miller as some seem to be. He definitely made some nice plays, and he was definitely better than last season (when he was invisible), But I'm not in line with this "Von is back!" narrative. I don't think he's "proved people wrong," and I certainly don't think he's worth what he's getting paid.
• Ingram could have been called for DPI on that last play. But, he wasn't, and it was the right non-call, IMO. (on a day that saw a lot of really crappy officiating...)
• Whatever happened to all of that "extra attention" Shakir was supposed to be getting? He bounced off defenders, stayed on his feet, and made incredibly athletic plays just like he did at the end of last season. It's not a fluke-- that guy is incredible.
• Absolutely agree on Hollins. He is exactly what the FO wanted (and knew) him to be-- an exceptional blocker, ST player, and role WR with reliable hands, and a large catch radius. And his route on his TD catch was perfect. It's clear that he's in sync with Allen.
• I suspect there are some Bills fans who are a little upset that we ran the ball as often as we did, but dang... it worked. Cooke was 3/3 receiving-- that extended play where Allen hit Cooke in stride was art. And I really hope Ray Davis has earned his spot as the #2. He's the perfect compliment to Cooke.
• GO BILLS!

[julian]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

Go look at my posts from the draft pick, while everyone was slobbering on him for what a steal he was, I didn’t like the pick. I realize your not just talking to me here but thought I’d defend my point 

I wasn’t saying that the posters showing up to tell everyone they never liked the pick were lying, I was simply pointing out the need some people have to circle back after the kid hits some bumps in the road to remind everyone they never liked him to begin with.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Nice write-up from our eternal optimist, @Alphadawg7. I hope you do these every week!

 

A few thoughts:

• I can't give Allen an A++. That second rushing TD was dangerous. It came on the heels of a designed run play for a TD that was called back because a hold. Two plays later, on second down, Allen scrambles for a TD that injured him. And it just wasn't necessary, IMO. He still had good protection, and plenty of time for one of his receivers to get open, he had Cooke right there for a check-down with only one defender near him, and a good shot at a TD, and it was only second down. I really got the feeling he wanted that recalled rushing TD back. So, because of that play, his earlier fumble, and the fact that he got himself injured, I can only give Allen an A-.

 

Fair criticisms, and I will add Josh was carrying the ball on runs like a loaf of bread all game and he needs to fix that.  I still think it was an MVP level performance overall, but I can't disagree really with anything here.

 

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

• Unsurprisingly, the D-line is terribly uneven. Groot was elite, and it didn't matter which side he was on. Epenesa, unfortunately... was not. He was utterly helpless against the Cards' LT, and not much better against their RT. This game doesn't write the book on AJ, but he has to be better going forward. Oliver, and Jones were fine. Maybe not Oliver's best game-- he didn't look like the best defensive player on the field-- but the two of them were solid. But, after Groot/Oliver/Jones/Epenesa, our lack of depth was evident.

 

I agree on Groot, and I agree it wasn't AJE's best overall game, he still did have some good reps out there too.  

 

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

• I'm really not as high on Von Miller as some seem to be. He definitely made some nice plays, and he was definitely better than last season (when he was invisible), But I'm not in line with this "Von is back!" narrative. I don't think he's "proved people wrong," and I certainly don't think he's worth what he's getting paid.

 

Agreed.  Von was never gonna "be back", it was always an unrealistic expectation IMHO at his age.  But the positive is he showed he can maybe still have some value this year which is a big improvement over no value last year.

 

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

• Ingram could have been called for DPI on that last play. But, he wasn't, and it was the right non-call, IMO. (on a day that saw a lot of really crappy officiating...)

 

Agreed, the fact he was not looking back for the ball could have drawn the flag, but I agree, it was the proper non-call and shockingly a play the refs got right during a terrible day from these refs who blew calls against both teams.

 

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

• Whatever happened to all of that "extra attention" Shakir was supposed to be getting? He bounced off defenders, stayed on his feet, and made incredibly athletic plays just like he did at the end of last season. It's not a fluke-- that guy is incredible.

 

Preach!

 

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

• Absolutely agree on Hollins. He is exactly what the FO wanted (and knew) him to be-- an exceptional blocker, ST player, and role WR with reliable hands, and a large catch radius. And his route on his TD catch was perfect. It's clear that he's in sync with Allen.

 

Yeah, this is what they wanted from him when they signed him.  It is only one week, but it was an impressive first week.

 

3 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

• I suspect there are some Bills fans who are a little upset that we ran the ball as often as we did, but dang... it worked. Cooke was 3/3 receiving-- that extended play where Allen hit Cooke in stride was art. And I really hope Ray Davis has earned his spot as the #2. He's the perfect compliment to Cooke.
• GO BILLS!

 

If there were fans upset at the amount of times we ran the ball compared to throwing, then I think they may be upset again Thursday.  While I don't expect Allen to only throw 23 times every week, this weeks matchup is a fast fins team who is a mess in their front 7.  The run game has a real shot to be clicking this week like we did against Dallas last year, and the best way to negate speed is to keep it off the field and dominate the TOP.  So if the run game is clicking, I wouldn't be surprised to see another run heavy game.  

 

Good post and go Bills!

[Rocky Landing]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I did go back through it again (not that I need to justify it to you). Kincaid saw a bunch of attention. If you’re the top receiving threat in an offense you can’t have 1 catch for 11 yards. That certainly doesn’t get an “A” grade!!  Travis Kelce has been the focal point of defenses for a long time. He rarely, if ever, posts that stat line. Kincaid took some pressure off everyone else and they blocked well. That’s why it’s a “C” performance for the TEs. That means average.

 

We are talking about “sticking to our guns.” I said that the WR group would have a few guys that outperformed their fantasy position (55-60). I said that I could see them being like Tyler Lockett who had 79/894/5. If you took each guys game and extrapolated it out (I know this isn’t realistic) you’d have: Coleman 68/867, Shakir 51/714, Samuel (not enough snaps to tell anything). That is the TOP of your depth chart. That is NOT an “A+.” They did what was asked and played well. 

Maybe this whole grading system thing is a little silly anyway. I mean, if there's only three questions on a test, and you answer all three of them correctly, you still get an "A," right?

 

But as far as extrapolating goes, I don't think that's really a fair assessment, either. For one thing, it seems unlikely that Allen is going to pass for under 4,000 yards this season. But also, if you're going to extrapolate yards as a grading metric, why not extrapolate other stats? I think we'd all be pretty happy if the WR corps finished the season with an 85.7% completion rate, as they did Sunday (and that includes MVS's standard 50%). And it wasn't just Hollins who had a good game blocking. Even rookie Coleman looked pretty good at those assignments.

[Dan in Owego]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

One major disagreement - I think it actually was pretty close to a disaster for O'Cyrus. 3 pressures, 3 penalties, 2 bad missed assignments on run plays. He was really rough. He looks out of condition to me. Agree though it was otherwise a very strong day for the line. 

 

And one major agreement - for all the crap I have given him pre-season I thought Mack Hollins had a really good game. In all facets. He ran the route on the touchdown perfectly - he made it look simple but you gotta get the depth of your break just right there to make sure both that a) you are making it to the endzone and b) that you have the right leverage on the DB to box him out. But not only that he found soft spots in zones well even when not targetted and played an important role as a blocker. 

Agree on point 1, if the trend continues i expect Alec Anderson sooner rather than later.

 

Point 2 i'm kinda excited as well well what we saw from Mack, could be a 750 7TD kinda year from him which could be huge!!!

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I will say that Rice, despite recent legal issues, is beginning to look like Mahomes' go to receiver.  IMHO, Shakir is headed to that designation for the Bills.

 

That's a couple steps too far for me. Rice proved you can make him a staple of your offense and he will go off to the tune of 100+ yards. Shakir picked up where he left off last year, as a low volume but extremely high efficiency target. He's a very valuable role player, nothing more nothing less. And that's not a criticism of him at all. Great offenses need great complementary pieces.

 

And that's my takeaway from the entire receiving corps in this game, having also watched the offense back on the all-22. It is all complementary pieces and role players. The best thing you can say about the group in this game is they made no mistakes. There were no egregious missed blocks that I saw, no dropped passes, no miscommunications. And there were a couple outstanding plays mixed in from Coleman and Shakir.

 

I've softened just a bit on my stance from the offseason. If every single role player actually plays their role effectively with no mistakes, maybe that is enough with a unicorn QB distributing the ball. Make no mistake - the 34 points is still a product of Allen more than everything else combined. But I am satisfied that none of his weapons actively inhibited the offense like we've seen way too many times from certain players over the years.

 

I will also give some credit to Brady here. I said after the game that his offensive coaching is serviceable but unspectacular, and I stand by that description, but the one thing he has done since taking over is he has raised the floor of the offense by eliminating the serious mistakes. There were zero plays on Sunday where the ball was put in harm's way, not counting Allen's fumble which was entirely his own fault and had nothing to do with play design. Allen had a big turnover problem under Dorsey. At the time I said that Dorsey in many cases fed Allen's worst instincts and was at least somewhat responsible for the turnover frequency, and I feel vindicated in that belief after seeing Brady take over and immediately remove that boom or bust nature of our offense.

 

I'm very intrigued to see where it goes from here. It feels unfair and wet blanket-y to say "well let's see what happens against better defenses" so for now I'll just enjoy the slight boost in optimism that maybe we really can make this band of 3rd/4th tier players function at an elite level.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, julian said:

And outta the woodwork come the posters to tell everyone they didn’t like O’Cyrus to begin with lol.

 

 The kid is clearly struggling early this year, I’m going to guess losing the veteran Morse to his left is effecting his play to some degree and he has some work to do to get back on track.

 

Unfortunately though it is not just this year. He struggled quite a bit down the stretch last year too. In fact I made a thread right at the end of the regular season wondering if the Bills should consider benching him for David Edwards. To Torrence's credit he was mostly invisible in the playoffs, in a good way, but now those issues have creeped back up in preseason and against Arizona. It has nothing to do with the players next to him, he just has one fatal flaw that every single DL out there is going to be aware of and they are going to exploit it until he personally makes them stop.

 

That being said I don't support benching him unless it starts to get so bad that it actively puts Josh's health in danger. I still consider this a rebuild season and I would rather give snaps to the young player that we drafted because of his physical gifts, versus playing it safe with a replacement level player. I reserve the right to change this opinion if we get into November and we clearly are a championship contender and Torrence clearly is a weak link. Until then, let him develop and see what happens.

[billsfan89]

One thing I think McD and the entire coaching staff deserves credit for is that the Bills played complementary football after getting punched in the mouth to start the game. The offense lifted the defense when it needed a physical and mental break (last drive of the half got the defense into half time with a break while a long sustained opening drive gave the defense an extended breather) and then when the offense turned it in its first three and out of the game the defense forced a turnover (After forcing a three and out on the previous drive). 

 

When the offense had the ball up 3 with 8.5 minutes left after the special teams let down the Bills offense grinded down the clock to slightly less than two minutes left in the game and extended the lead to 6. The defense then shut the door when the Cards still had plenty of time on the clock and 3 timeouts. While the players deserve the credit for executing the coaches definitely didn't let things spiral out of control when down 14.

Edited September 11 by billsfan89

[CNYfan]

5 hours ago, BuffaloBill said:

Each is entitled to their opinion but the Bills did not turn in an “A” performance. Keep in mind they only won by 6 and there was a chance for th Cards to win on some last minute heroics. I am happy for the win and the chance to move on.  

 

Overall, the Bills at best played a B- game.  Let’s be real, they really did not look that good.

The Special Teams D is what hurts.   Could have been an F, except for a few made Field Goals.

[Tanoros]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You can’t have 151 yards and be an A+ 😂😂😂. You can’t have 251 and be an A+. They were fine. They were a “B.” I don’t want to do this all year. They caught a few balls each. We shouldn’t throw a parade for 5 guys combining for 151. They did their job. 
 

The TEs were not particularly good. They were covered but if we are depending on these guys they can’t have 1 catch. 

I didn’t study the film so I don’t have a rating. But speaking from a purely logical standpoint, an A+ should be on the table for every position group every game and context must be an important part of the grading. 
 

You state the WR position group couldn’t be an A+ because they only had 151 yards. Yet they had a high catch rate and they can’t force the QB to throw to them or dictate the game plan. Additionally, catching isn’t the only thing the WR do. They block, they run routes when not targeted. Those are also important aspects of the job and should be included in the grade. 
 

To base the grade on yardage only would be a very poor way to grade and not looking at the whole picture, which is the point of the grade. 

[GASabresIUFan]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Shakir picked up where he left off last year, as a low volume but extremely high efficiency target. He's a very valuable role player, nothing more nothing less.

I think you are underestimating Shakir’s future with the Bills.  He went from bit player in year 1 to starting slot receiver in year 2.  Targets went from 20 to 45.  The governor on his upside was feeding the Diggs monster.   
 

Now in year 3, I think you’ll see him grow into Josh’s security blanket. Beasley had targets of 106, 107 & 112 in his 3 season averaging about 10 yards a catch.  Shakir averages over 15 yards.  I expect him to have 80 - 90 targets this season.  

 

 

[RoscoeParrish]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I did go back through it again (not that I need to justify it to you). Kincaid saw a bunch of attention. If you’re the top receiving threat in an offense you can’t have 1 catch for 11 yards. That certainly doesn’t get an “A” grade!!  Travis Kelce has been the focal point of defenses for a long time. He rarely, if ever, posts that stat line. Kincaid took some pressure off everyone else and they blocked well. That’s why it’s a “C” performance for the TEs. That means average.

 

We are talking about “sticking to our guns.” I said that the WR group would have a few guys that outperformed their fantasy position (55-60). I said that I could see them being like Tyler Lockett who had 79/894/5. If you took each guys game and extrapolated it out (I know this isn’t realistic) you’d have: Coleman 68/867, Shakir 51/714, Samuel (not enough snaps to tell anything). That is the TOP of your depth chart. That is NOT an “A+.” They did what was asked and played well. 

While this point is understood, I take more issue that Josh was only one + higher than the WR’s.

 

If the WR’s were A+, Josh needs to be like A+ x 10. Imo.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's a couple steps too far for me. Rice proved you can make him a staple of your offense and he will go off to the tune of 100+ yards. Shakir picked up where he left off last year, as a low volume but extremely high efficiency target. He's a very valuable role player, nothing more nothing less. And that's not a criticism of him at all. Great offenses need great complementary pieces.

Your opinion isn’t bad on Shakir, but I do think you’re selling Shakir’s ceiling a little short here.  For example, Shakir could have easily had a 100 yard game this week, he was getting open, but Allen only completed 18 passes and did so to 9 players spreading the ball around.  It wasn’t because Shakir wasn’t effective enough or capable of higher volume.