Alpha's Week 1 recap and film review

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You can’t have 151 yards and be an A+ 😂😂😂. You can’t have 251 and be an A+. They were fine. They were a “B.” I don’t want to do this all year. They caught a few balls each. We shouldn’t throw a parade for 5 guys combining for 151. They did their job. 
 

The TEs were not particularly good. They were covered but if we are depending on these guys they can’t have 1 catch. 

 

Grades shouldnt be based on how many yards they got. It should be based on whether or not they did their job. Did they make the most of their opportunities. Did they block when they needed to block.  Did they run good routes and get open. Etc.  It isnt all about how many yards they got.  Tyreek Hill could make one catch all game for 80 yards.  By your standards that sounds like it would be a high grade when it not necessarily should be.  Did you know Kincaid was drawing upwards of triple coverage?  You give him a C for that?

 

I dunno, maybe A+ is high but I wouldnt call it high just because "yardage."  Most of the league was down on passing this week.

7 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Trust me, I am very happy with the win and had a great tailgate (I won). But the Cards were a bad team last year with one of the worst defenses in the nfl. I think they should be better but that is not great competition we faced on Sunday. 
 

love our groups of WRs as guys but I would like to see them against better defenses but I’m sold on them. 

 

Im curious... how do you win a tailgate? I havent been to a game in a long time but I used to go pretty often.  Are there some games or something or are you competing for best food/setup?

[HappyDays]

49 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Now in year 3, I think you’ll see him grow into Josh’s security blanket. Beasley had targets of 106, 107 & 112 in his 3 season averaging about 10 yards a catch.  Shakir averages over 15 yards.  I expect him to have 80 - 90 targets this season.

 

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Your opinion isn’t bad on Shakir, but I do think you’re selling Shakir’s ceiling a little short here. For example, Shakir could have easily had a 100 yard game this week, he was getting open, but Allen only completed 18 passes and did so to 9 players spreading the ball around.  It wasn’t because Shakir wasn’t effective enough or capable of higher volume.  

 

I'll need to see it to believe it. Since Brady took over Shakir has averaged 3.9 targets per game including both playoff games last season. Before checking I would have said 4 targets per game is ideal for his skill set so I'm in lock step with Brady. That would be 68 targets on the year. We know he has elite efficiency with that sort of medium volume. I don't see a skill set that asks for high volume, I see a skill set that can maximize opportunities.

 

The reason Allen had to spread the ball around, and will continue to do so, is because we don't have a focal point target. That includes Shakir. Most offenses around the league, you can point to their #1 guy. In fact most you can point to their #2 as well. Our offense does not appear to have a #1 or #2. It really is going to be about relatively equal distribution. My positive takeaway from Sunday is maybe that can work better than I thought.

[Scott7975]

7 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Hope you are right on us getting to Tua but you have to give the little guy credit, he has super fast receivers that get open quick and he has a very fast to get rid of the ball, a la tom Brady.  He doesnt need a howitzer like Allen, just deliver it quickly and on target.

 

You get to Tua the same way the Bills have always gotten to Tua... you identify his first read and take it away.  The reason he gets rid of the ball so quick is that his receivers are so fast his first read is always open. Tua is definitely great at getting the ball out quick and accurately.  Not so good at doing things when the play breaks down and he has to go beyond 1-2 reads.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I'll need to see it to believe it. Since Brady took over Shakir has averaged 3.9 targets per game including both playoff games last season. Before checking I would have said 4 targets per game is ideal for his skill set so I'm in lock step with Brady. That would be 68 targets on the year. We know he has elite efficiency with that sort of medium volume. I don't see a skill set that asks for high volume, I see a skill set that can maximize opportunities.

 

The reason Allen had to spread the ball around, and will continue to do so, is because we don't have a focal point target. That includes Shakir. Most offenses around the league, you can point to their #1 guy. In fact most you can point to their #2 as well. Our offense does not appear to have a #1 or #2. It really is going to be about relatively equal distribution. My positive takeaway from Sunday is maybe that can work better than I thought.

I get that, and I don’t think you’re being unfair, just capping his ceiling too much.  All I was saying is that the opportunities to get Shakir say 8 targets Sunday was there.  He was open a lot more than he got targets for.  But Allen only had 2 completed passes with just over 2 min left in the first half.  And it resulted in just 18 completions, but to 9 people.  
 

So I was just saying I didn’t come away from the game that his low targets Sunday were because of his limitations.  On many completions Allen had multiple places he could have went with the ball but only one can get the target.  And it’s why no one individual got a heavy target load on a relatively low volume passing game by Allen in general.  
 

But to your point, if this spread the ball around philosophy keeps working this well then maybe no one will get enough targets on the season to get a 1000+ yards individually.  
 

It’s gonna be fun seeing his this develops this year though 

[Scott7975]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I get that, and I don’t think you’re being unfair, just capping his ceiling too much.  All I was saying is that the opportunities to get Shakir say 8 targets Sunday was there.  He was open a lot more than he got targets for.  But Allen only had 2 completed passes with just over 2 min left in the first half.  And it resulted in just 18 completions, but to 9 people.  
 

So I was just saying I didn’t come away from the game that his low targets Sunday were because of his limitations.  On many completions Allen had multiple places he could have went with the ball but only one can get the target.  And it’s why no one individual got a heavy target load on a relatively low volume passing game by Allen in general.  
 

But to your point, if this spread the ball around philosophy keeps working this well then maybe no one will get enough targets on the season to get a 1000+ yards individually.  
 

It’s gonna be fun seeing his this develops this year though 

 

I think as the weeks go on, Shakir is going to grab a lot of attention. The guy is too explosive with the ball.  I belive that is why the Bills built the way they did and run the offense they do.  WR by committee. Dont need to force feed anyone. Take this guy away and we got that guy over there. Id still like to see a game changing star like Deebo added but we got a lot of guys that aren't stars but can still get the job done.

Edited September 11 by Scott7975

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, Scott7975 said:

 

I think as the weeks go on, Shakir is going to grab a lot of attention. The guy is too explosive with the ball.

I agree.  Did you watch his Mic’d up video?  If not, I posted it in my Calling it now thread about Shakir earlier today.  It was a good watch and you can see he is the leader in that WR room and emerging as a leader on this team.  You wouldn’t know it from his calm demeanor in his interviews, but he’s bringing the juice out there all game long.  

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree.  Did you watch his Mic’d up video?  If not, I posted it in my Calling it now thread about Shakir earlier today.  It was a good watch and you can see he is the leader in that WR room and emerging as a leader on this team.  You wouldn’t know it from his calm demeanor in his interviews, but he’s bringing the juice out there all game long.  

 

I have not but I will. Thanks.

[GASabresIUFan]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Since Brady took over Shakir has averaged 3.9 targets per game including both playoff games last season. Before checking I would have said 4 targets per game is ideal for his skill set so I'm in lock step with Brady

However, that still included feeding Diggs 75 times (398 yards) from week 11 through the playoffs (compared to Shakir only 36 times - 438 yars).  That necessity is now gone and as the weeks go by I suspect Shakir's role will continue to grow.  If it doesn't shame on Brady and the Bills.  The guy had 30 yards of YAC in his 3 catches for 42 yards on Sunday, the other 4 receivers combines had 29 yards after the catch.

[eball]

You’ve got to believe Kromer and the coaches see what’s going on with Torrence as well.  They’ll fix it or we may start to see someone else in there.

 

For all of the “it was Arizona and they stink” crowd…Buffalo scored 31 points in the final 31 minutes of the game, after a slow start by the defense that kept the offense off the field.

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

I'll need to see it to believe it. Since Brady took over Shakir has averaged 3.9 targets per game including both playoff games last season. Before checking I would have said 4 targets per game is ideal for his skill set so I'm in lock step with Brady. That would be 68 targets on the year. We know he has elite efficiency with that sort of medium volume. I don't see a skill set that asks for high volume, I see a skill set that can maximize opportunities.

 

The reason Allen had to spread the ball around, and will continue to do so, is because we don't have a focal point target. That includes Shakir. Most offenses around the league, you can point to their #1 guy. In fact most you can point to their #2 as well. Our offense does not appear to have a #1 or #2. It really is going to be about relatively equal distribution. My positive takeaway from Sunday is maybe that can work better than I thought.

 

What will be interesting to see is who the league thinks our number 1 guy is. The Cardinals clearly thought it was Kincaid and played to take him out of the game. That is always my litmus test for who is a real #1 and who isn't. It was the Diggs - Thielen point in Minnesota. A lot of the media were happy to call Thielen the #1 but when you watched the games the league was telling you who it thought the #1 was there by the way Diggs almost always attracted extra coverage attention. 

 

Will that continue on Kincaid? My guess is it will until someone else shows that they are the guy to worry about. The problem with your #1 that teams are planning to take away being a tight end rather than a receiver is that it is easier to get multiple guys around your tight end in the middle of the field without needing to disrupt the integrity of your defensive scheme too much. It's why we really have to hope Coleman as he develops or Samuel as he gets more healthy can demonstrate they are that guy. The receivers played well Sunday and the spreading seemed to work. Question is what happens when they play less well? 

Edited September 11 by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

12 hours ago, Last Guy on the Bench said:

You seem to be grading stats. Which anyone can do. Alpha is grading how well people did what they were asked to do (by the scheme/playcall), in his opinion. You are making no kind of counterargument to what he is actually doing. You're using an entirely different rubric and getting outraged over nothing. 

 

Lol, no. I’m grading the impact that people had on the game. The majority of the offense did their jobs. They were okay and Josh was exceptional. I’m not handing out an “A” to a group that caught 2 balls or a RB group that averaged 3.8 YPC. Yes, I realize those are statistics. Those are statitistics that do not represent dominance. I continue to use Gabe at KC because that represents dominance. Gabe isn’t a great football player but on that day it was an A+ performance. If we are calling this an A+ performance, what was that? A++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++?

11 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

Maybe this whole grading system thing is a little silly anyway. I mean, if there's only three questions on a test, and you answer all three of them correctly, you still get an "A," right?

 

But as far as extrapolating goes, I don't think that's really a fair assessment, either. For one thing, it seems unlikely that Allen is going to pass for under 4,000 yards this season. But also, if you're going to extrapolate yards as a grading metric, why not extrapolate other stats? I think we'd all be pretty happy if the WR corps finished the season with an 85.7% completion rate, as they did Sunday (and that includes MVS's standard 50%). And it wasn't just Hollins who had a good game blocking. Even rookie Coleman looked pretty good at those assignments.

I agree that Allen is unlikely to go under 4,000. The line in Vegas before the game was 3,750. I bet the over. 
 

85.7% completion is much less likely than a few guys between 700-900 yards but it’s a fair point. I do agree on the blocking as well. It was great on Sunday. 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Grades shouldnt be based on how many yards they got. It should be based on whether or not they did their job. Did they make the most of their opportunities. Did they block when they needed to block.  Did they run good routes and get open. Etc.  It isnt all about how many yards they got.  Tyreek Hill could make one catch all game for 80 yards.  By your standards that sounds like it would be a high grade when it not necessarily should be.  Did you know Kincaid was drawing upwards of triple coverage?  You give him a C for that?

 

I dunno, maybe A+ is high but I wouldnt call it high just because "yardage."  Most of the league was down on passing this week.

 

Im curious... how do you win a tailgate? I havent been to a game in a long time but I used to go pretty often.  Are there some games or something or are you competing for best food/setup?

Lol, I literally have the TEs a C because of the attention that Kincaid attracted. It opened things up for everyone else. Neither of us knows how many plays didn’t happen because someone wasn’t open or where they should be. They did what was asked of them. I’ve said that over and over. That doesn’t get you an A or A+ in my book. You get an A or A+ for dominating. 
 

I continue to use Gabe at KC as the A+ scale. If this was an A+ for the WRs, what grade does Gabe at KC get? To this point, no one has answered that question. I think that I know why. No one, can say with a straight face, that those 2 performances were equivalent.

[oldmanfan]

I think Alpha is a bit over the top with his grades.  I give the WRs a solid B+ because they were getting open, and their blocking was very good.  I'd give the RBs and TEs each a B.  TE maybe B-, but clearly the Cards decided to take away Kincaid. 

And I think our friend Kirby Jackson is really suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias with respect to the WRs.  I fear Kirby decided going into the season that the WRs would suck, and that nothing will change his mind.  Like it or not, and clearly Kirby doesn't, the ball will get spread around a lot in Brady's offense, just as happened Sunday.  Total yardage was lower primarily because of the defense not performing well in the first half thus taking away a lot of time from the offense.

[Thunderstruck]

Nice analysis and I agree on many of the points. One important question for you:

 

Had the Cardinals gone down and scored a game winning TD, would your grades have been the same? After seeing so many of these post-game report cards over the years (not just by you, of course), I am curious about this.

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, I literally have the TEs a C because of the attention that Kincaid attracted. It opened things up for everyone else. Neither of us knows how many plays didn’t happen because someone wasn’t open or where they should be. They did what was asked of them. I’ve said that over and over. That doesn’t get you an A or A+ in my book. You get an A or A+ for dominating. 
 

I continue to use Gabe at KC as the A+ scale. If this was an A+ for the WRs, what grade does Gabe at KC get? To this point, no one has answered that question. I think that I know why. No one, can say with a straight face, that those 2 performances were equivalent.

 

Yea I think you are using grades the way I'd traditionally use them. You don't start with an A+ then get marked gradually down each mistake. You start with a middle C and build up (or reduce down) from there. The receivers caught 12 balls. Taking them play by play I'd give Shakir an A for his catch and run touchdown. I'd give Coleman's boundary catch and the route Hollins run for his touchdown both B+/A- every other catch by a receiver was what I'd call a standard catch that they go the standard out of. It takes a lot of those plays stacked together to get me to an A. 

 

But the reality is I'm not especially bothered about what letter grade people want to assign. I'm bothered about performance and result. It was an encouraging first day. But only 4 balls thrown to the outside beyond the line of scrimmage all day is an indication of where some of the limitations are and my worry remains that as the season goes along those things will come to the fore more. Hopefully not. Because really the only thing that stopped the Bills on offense Sunday was the Bills. 

Edited September 11 by GunnerBill

[RoscoeParrish]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think you are using grades the way I'd traditionally use them. You don't start with an A+ then get marked gradually down each mistake. You start with a middle C and build up (or reduce down) from there. The receivers caught 12 balls. Taking them play by play I'd give Shakir an A for his catch and run touchdown. I'd give Coleman's boundary catch and the route Hollins run for his touchdown both B+/A- every other catch by a receiver was what I'd call a standard catch that they go the standard out of. It takes a lot of those plays stacked together to get me to an A. 

 

But the reality is I'm not especially bothered about what letter grade people want to assign. I'm bothered about performance and result. It was an encouraging first day. But only 4 balls thrown to the outside beyond the line of scrimmage all day is an indication of where some of the limitations are and my worry remains that as the season goes along those things will come to the fore more. Hopefully not. Because really the only thing that stopped the Bills on offense Sunday was the Bills. 

At some point, teams WILL go matchup on matchup, spy Josh and dare someone else on the Bills to beat them consistently.

 

That will be the real test. If it slows us down, other teams will start to do it as well. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, RoscoeParrish said:

At some point, teams WILL go matchup on matchup, spy Josh and dare someone else on the Bills to beat them consistently.

 

That will be the real test. If it slows us down, other teams will start to do it as well. 

 

I they will do what they do to the Ravens and dare Lamar to beat them outside. They do that to him because he is a limitation to throwing the ball down the field outside (in fairness the Ravens receiver are too but that is because they built the receiving corps to suit Lamar). They will do it to Josh because they don't fear any of the Bills boundary receivers. So they will clog up the middle try and take Kincaid and Shakir away just by flooding those intermediate zones which also gives them people in position to play Josh's legs. 

 

We will see how the Bills respond. There are definitely tougher tests to come. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I think Alpha is a bit over the top with his grades.  I give the WRs a solid B+ because they were getting open, and their blocking was very good.  I'd give the RBs and TEs each a B.  TE maybe B-, but clearly the Cards decided to take away Kincaid. 

And I think our friend Kirby Jackson is really suffering from a severe case of confirmation bias with respect to the WRs.  I fear Kirby decided going into the season that the WRs would suck, and that nothing will change his mind.  Like it or not, and clearly Kirby doesn't, the ball will get spread around a lot in Brady's offense, just as happened Sunday.  Total yardage was lower primarily because of the defense not performing well in the first half thus taking away a lot of time from the offense.

Lol, I gave them a B. I said they were fine. They were. They weren’t dynamic. This isn’t confirmation bias 😂. It’s reality. Outside of the run after catch that Shakir had, what was special? Coleman made a nice back shoulder catch where he was covered. They played well. 
 

When I think of special, I think of the play Tyreek made the other day. He caught a ball and ran away from everyone for an 80 yard TD. Obviously we don’t have anyone of that caliber but that’s what elite looks like. Our group played well, as I said. They just weren’t special. I gave them a B. You gave them a B+ and then called me out 😂😂😂

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Lol, I gave them a B. I said they were fine. They were. They weren’t dynamic. This isn’t confirmation bias 😂. It’s reality. Outside of the run after catch that Shakir had, what was special? Coleman made a nice back shoulder catch where he was covered. They played well. 
 

When I think of special, I think of the play Tyreek made the other day. He caught a ball and ran away from everyone for an 80 yard TD. Obviously we don’t have anyone of that caliber but that’s what elite looks like. Our group played well, as I said. They just weren’t special. I gave them a B. You gave them a B+ and then called me out 😂😂😂

Yes.  That means I graded them higher.

[GASabresIUFan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

But only 4 balls thrown to the outside beyond the line of scrimmage all day is an indication of where some of the limitations are

Or maybe there were external limitations such as wind and game plan.  The wind made deep passes nearly impossible for half the game.  Also the weakness of AZ defense seems like it was covering short and intermediate passes as our players were open all game in that area.  
 

Bill Walsh taught everyone 40 years ago to take what the defense gives you.  While Brady isn’t running the West Coast offense exactly, many elements of that offense are clearly on display.  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Brady is using Allen like Walsh used Steve Young.

 

As to grading, I didn’t start at A+ and not work out way down.  I looked at all the factors such as catch% - 87%. YAC % 39%, TDs 2, zero penalties, zero drops, zero fumbles, 7 - 1st downs.   

All these are nearly perfect scores or in the extremely high % in their category.  The only “low” score was yards, but even that wasn’t an issue given the game plan and wind conditions.  Add the excellent blocking by the group and you get an A+.
 

Frankly to compare this WR group performance to the career day of a single player no longer here, who played in a difference offense with a different OC in different weather conditions is silly.  It’s lacks context and honestly is irrelevant.  I’d give Davis a A+ for his performance that day, but how did the other wideouts do?  How many drops, missed passes, how many penalties?  If I remember  correctly the Bills still lost that game.  

It was stated that they didn’t impact the game.  Really? They accounted for 50% of the TDs, and 43% of the team’s yards from scrimmage.  
 

This was a nearly flawless performance.  

PS If total yards is the most important factor then Allen needs to be downgraded as well, yet @Kirby Jackson gave him an A+.  After all he only threw for 232 yards.  He also had a very costly fumble, missed a wide open MVS on a deep throw, and on the fumble he got sacked because he failed to get the ball out quickly to an open receiver.  

While Josh was Josh this was far from his best game as a pro.  However it was an efficient and mostly well played effort where he made good decisions with the ball except the fumble.  Sometimes yards aren’t the biggest factor.  

 

Edited September 11 by GASabresIUFan