Game management strategy & “The big miss”

[WIDE LEFT]

Hank Haney, Tiger’s golf coach for many years, detailed in his book “The big miss” his course management strategy- avoid the big miss. If all the trouble on a hole is on the right side, construct your shots to take that trouble completely out of play. If you have a very long putt, don’t try to make it, just focus on getting it close enough to the hole so that a three putt is out of the equation.

 

I wish the Bills would adopt some of this philosophy when it comes to their game management strategy, which currently can be characterized as poor to non existent. As an example: Jets v Fish last year. Tie game, less than 20 seconds left, game heading to OT and the Jets are punting. What’s the big miss here? The one disaster u must avoid? A long punt return obviously. Avoiding the big miss here would be to punt the ball out of bounds. Instead, punt is returned for a TD and Fish win

 

So Sunday, Bills take a two score lead, and are kicking off, with not a lot of time left in the game. What’s the big miss here? Well now we know. The wind was too strong for either kicker to reach the end zone. What do the Bills do. Line drive kick to returner with a disastrous result - the big miss. Best game management decision would have been to do what they did on their last kickoff, squib kick - even if the result is a penalty placing the ball at the 40. It’s often the case that you have to sacrifice something in an effort to avoid disaster (the big miss). In fact, Bills chose to do that (squib kick)  on their very last kickoff. But that was one kickoff TOO LATE. I remain a supporter of McD, but too often he comes up short in game management, especially towards the end of games.

[Coffeesforclosers]

So don't screw up. Got it.

[Coach Tuesday]

The one thing that gets more more than anything else under this regime is that they are NEVER ahead of the curve on special teams.  They are always chasing to keep up with the rest of the league in terms of strategy and approach.  Always.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Maybe Elam and Gilliam could just tackle the guy. How about that? Bills waste tons of cap space on players that come up small in the big moments. Matakevich last year was on the team for the sole purpose of being on punt team and yet they give up a punt return TD to lose game 1. 

I loathe this regimes over emphasis on special teams, but McDermott didn't miss those tackles. 

 

Also I dispute the thought Bass couldn't kick it into the endzone. He didn't even try. He had a 4 yard run up. He should have kicked a low line drive kick that cut through the wind. You better teach him how to do that because the weather isn't going to get any better. 

 

Oh yeah and this should piss people off. I'd rather have a second kicker that only boots it out of the endzone than Gilliam on the roster. If you think about it that would be far more valuable than the 4 snaps Gilliam was on offense. 

 

Rant over....lol...Go Bills!

[ProcessImproverMan]

Maybe the refs could actually enforce the rules and call the block in the back clearly visible on replay that sprung the return. Nah, that's too much to ask from officials who cannot even understand that we didn't touch Murray so there should have been no flag. 

[WIDE LEFT]

36 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Maybe Elam and Gilliam could just tackle the guy. How about that? Bills waste tons of cap space on players that come up small in the big moments. Matakevich last year was on the team for the sole purpose of being on punt team and yet they give up a punt return TD to lose game 1. 

I loathe this regimes over emphasis on special teams, but McDermott didn't miss those tackles. 

 

Also I dispute the thought Bass couldn't kick it into the endzone. He didn't even try. He had a 4 yard run up. He should have kicked a low line drive kick that cut through the wind. You better teach him how to do that because the weather isn't going to get any better. 

 

Oh yeah and this should piss people off. I'd rather have a second kicker that only boots it out of the endzone than Gilliam on the roster. If you think about it that would be far more valuable than the 4 snaps Gilliam was on offense. 

 

Rant over....lol...Go Bills!

Okay so both kickers in that game kicked it into the end zone when the wind was at their back. Neither kicker could reach the end zone when the wind was against them. The suggestion that Bass “didn’t even try” is just ridiculous. As is the idea that somehow you can “learn” to kick a low liner into a strong wind by somehow “cutting” it through the wind. Sure

 

And yes, it would be great if nobody ever missed a tackle on special teams,  but that doesn’t happen anywhere, anytime in the NFL. They are human beings who aren’t perfect. So devising your strategy based on the assumption that nobody should miss a tackle is just foolish. In golf terms, you can always avoid the big miss if you just hit the ball straight EVERY time. That’s never going to happen, so basing your strategy on the expectation of perfection just will not ever work. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

12 minutes ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Okay so both kickers in that game kicked it into the end zone when the wind was at their back. Neither kicker could reach the end zone when the wind was against them. The suggestion that Bass “didn’t even try” is just ridiculous. As is the idea that somehow you can “learn” to kick a low liner into a strong wind by somehow “cutting” it through the wind. Sure

 

And yes, it would be great if nobody ever missed a tackle on special teams,  but that doesn’t happen anywhere, anytime in the NFL. They are human beings who aren’t perfect. So devising your strategy based on the assumption that nobody should miss a tackle is just foolish. In golf terms, you can always avoid the big miss if you just hit the ball straight EVERY time. That’s never going to happen, so basing your strategy on the expectation of perfection just will not ever work. 

Ok. So are you advocating for a squib then? Correct me if I'm wrong but the squib is not the same as it has been in the past. 

The ball must land in the land zone so it's not really a squib anymore and as you saw when he tried it they got the ball at the 40. I'd argue it'ds probably much harder to try and kick it low and land in the landing zone than it is to kick it low and deep. 

 

I guess my point was this was not a strategy fail, it was an execution fail. 

 

 

1 hour ago, ProcessImproverMan said:

Maybe the refs could actually enforce the rules and call the block in the back clearly visible on replay that sprung the return. Nah, that's too much to ask from officials who cannot even understand that we didn't touch Murray so there should have been no flag. 

That too!

[CSBill]

How about everyone just does their job, and then the disaster wouldn't happen?

[WIDE LEFT]

37 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Ok. So are you advocating for a squib then? Correct me if I'm wrong but the squib is not the same as it has been in the past. 

The ball must land in the land zone so it's not really a squib anymore and as you saw when he tried it they got the ball at the 40. I'd argue it'ds probably much harder to try and kick it low and land in the landing zone than it is to kick it low and deep. 

 

I guess my point was this was not a strategy fail, it was an execution fail. 

 

 

That too!

The Bills did the new & recent version of a squib kick on their final kickoff. Why do you think they did this? Because they realized (too late) that a regular kickoff into a wind that’s too strong to reach the end zone creates the risk of a long return. Their squib kick resulted in a penalty but that would have been preferable to a TD return. But a squib kick, even one that stays in bounds, has less chance to be returned for a TD, but also is likely to result in a return longer than which results from a standard kickoff.

 

Am I advocating for squib kicks, generally no, of course. But we are talking about game management here, and yes, if I grab a two score lead late in the game and cannot reach the end zone, yes a squib kick reduces the chance of the one thing I cannot have - a return for a TD. That’s the choice the Bills made on their last kickoff, and it’s the strategic choice they SHOULD have made on the kick retuned for a TD

 

 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Hank Haney, Tiger’s golf coach for many years, detailed in his book “The big miss” his course management strategy- avoid the big miss. If all the trouble on a hole is on the right side, construct your shots to take that trouble completely out of play. If you have a very long putt, don’t try to make it, just focus on getting it close enough to the hole so that a three putt is out of the equation.

 

I wish the Bills would adopt some of this philosophy when it comes to their game management strategy, which currently can be characterized as poor to non existent. As an example: Jets v Fish last year. Tie game, less than 20 seconds left, game heading to OT and the Jets are punting. What’s the big miss here? The one disaster u must avoid? A long punt return obviously. Avoiding the big miss here would be to punt the ball out of bounds. Instead, punt is returned for a TD and Fish win

 

So Sunday, Bills take a two score lead, and are kicking off, with not a lot of time left in the game. What’s the big miss here? Well now we know. The wind was too strong for either kicker to reach the end zone. What do the Bills do. Line drive kick to returner with a disastrous result - the big miss. Best game management decision would have been to do what they did on their last kickoff, squib kick - even if the result is a penalty placing the ball at the 40. It’s often the case that you have to sacrifice something in an effort to avoid disaster (the big miss). In fact, Bills chose to do that (squib kick)  on their very last kickoff. But that was one kickoff TOO LATE. I remain a supporter of McD, but too often he comes up short in game management, especially towards the end of games.

I like this point.   

 

If I had to guess, what went wrong on that kick was that Bass told Smiley he could reach the end zone on that kick.  Just a guess, but it seems to me there's no way you kick down the middle of the field unless you're trying to reach end zone.  I think Smiley's mistake was trusting Bass.  

 

And you're right about the next kick.  I didn't like that it went out of bounds, but it isn't a "big miss" and the Bills could live with it.  I think Smiley recognized that Bass couldn't get it to the end zone, so he called for a directional kick.  Bass miss-hit it, but there was no doubt that wind caused it to hook some toward the sideline.  

 

Clearly, the touchdown hurt, big-time.  It was, essentially, the only play the Cardinals made in the second half (other than one long run by Murray).  But I also think that the Bills got bit by something that everyone knew was going to bite some teams early this season:  there just isn't enough tape yet for coaches to figure out all the details of excellent kick coverage in this new format.  Everyone has done their best installing coverages they believe will work, but it is very much a work in progress.  You can be sure that every team, not just the Bills, will be studying that touchdown and adjusting their schemes. 

[JP51]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I like this point.   

 

If I had to guess, what went wrong on that kick was that Bass told Smiley he could reach the end zone on that kick.  Just a guess, but it seems to me there's no way you kick down the middle of the field unless you're trying to reach end zone.  I think Smiley's mistake was trusting Bass.  

 

And you're right about the next kick.  I didn't like that it went out of bounds, but it isn't a "big miss" and the Bills could live with it.  I think Smiley recognized that Bass couldn't get it to the end zone, so he called for a directional kick.  Bass miss-hit it, but there was no doubt that wind caused it to hook some toward the sideline.  

 

Clearly, the touchdown hurt, big-time.  It was, essentially, the only play the Cardinals made in the second half (other than one long run by Murray).  But I also think that the Bills got bit by something that everyone knew was going to bite some teams early this season:  there just isn't enough tape yet for coaches to figure out all the details of excellent kick coverage in this new format.  Everyone has done their best installing coverages they believe will work, but it is very much a work in progress.  You can be sure that every team, not just the Bills, will be studying that touchdown and adjusting their schemes. 

agreed and with the game on the line at that point... I mean even if you make them drive down the field and take 5 minutes and they score you have done something... you cant leave that one to chance...  

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, WIDE LEFT said:

Hank Haney, Tiger’s golf coach for many years, detailed in his book “The big miss” his course management strategy- avoid the big miss. If all the trouble on a hole is on the right side, construct your shots to take that trouble completely out of play. If you have a very long putt, don’t try to make it, just focus on getting it close enough to the hole so that a three putt is out of the equation.

 

I wish the Bills would adopt some of this philosophy when it comes to their game management strategy, which currently can be characterized as poor to non existent. As an example: Jets v Fish last year. Tie game, less than 20 seconds left, game heading to OT and the Jets are punting. What’s the big miss here? The one disaster u must avoid? A long punt return obviously. Avoiding the big miss here would be to punt the ball out of bounds. Instead, punt is returned for a TD and Fish win

 

So Sunday, Bills take a two score lead, and are kicking off, with not a lot of time left in the game. What’s the big miss here? Well now we know. The wind was too strong for either kicker to reach the end zone. What do the Bills do. Line drive kick to returner with a disastrous result - the big miss. Best game management decision would have been to do what they did on their last kickoff, squib kick - even if the result is a penalty placing the ball at the 40. It’s often the case that you have to sacrifice something in an effort to avoid disaster (the big miss). In fact, Bills chose to do that (squib kick)  on their very last kickoff. But that was one kickoff TOO LATE. I remain a supporter of McD, but too often he comes up short in game management, especially towards the end of games.

He's never going to win you a game because of some strategic genius.  This is the way he's been his entire career.  He should’ve poached the ball to the 5 during the 13s game but he didn't.  He's so damn conservative he'll embrace the 3 putt on a 50 footer.

Edited September 10 by LABILLBACKER

[Rochesterfan]

3 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Ok. So are you advocating for a squib then? Correct me if I'm wrong but the squib is not the same as it has been in the past. 

The ball must land in the land zone so it's not really a squib anymore and as you saw when he tried it they got the ball at the 40. I'd argue it'ds probably much harder to try and kick it low and land in the landing zone than it is to kick it low and deep. 

 

I guess my point was this was not a strategy fail, it was an execution fail. 

 

 

That too!

 

It is harder - just look at the 6 kick-offs that went in that direction and the impact of the wind.  
 

Arizona #1 - Prater kicked deep - could only get the ball to the 2 and we had a 53 yard return.

Arizona #2 - Prater tried a squib and it hit short of the zone and the Bills got it at the 20.

 

Bills #1 - Deep kick to the 4 - return to the 29.

Bills #2 - Deep Kick to the 4 - muff

Bills #3 - Deep Kick to the 4 - TD return with a huge block in the back right at the point of contact and 2 Bills sliding off the runner and a third guy going O’le.

Bills #4 - Tried to squib, but kick goes OB.

 

The wind made it impossible going in that direction to get any kick to the end zone.  The Ball was getting held up and pushed short and if you tried to keep it short - the wind was pushing it hard toward the sideline where Bass’s kick went.

 

Squibs and low line drives are even harder now because it must go to the landing zone and if it is low enough an up man can knock it down short of the landing zone - so you have many fewer paths to try and squib the ball through.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I like this point.   

 

If I had to guess, what went wrong on that kick was that Bass told Smiley he could reach the end zone on that kick.  Just a guess, but it seems to me there's no way you kick down the middle of the field unless you're trying to reach end zone.  I think Smiley's mistake was trusting Bass.  

 

And you're right about the next kick.  I didn't like that it went out of bounds, but it isn't a "big miss" and the Bills could live with it.  I think Smiley recognized that Bass couldn't get it to the end zone, so he called for a directional kick.  Bass miss-hit it, but there was no doubt that wind caused it to hook some toward the sideline.  

 

Clearly, the touchdown hurt, big-time.  It was, essentially, the only play the Cardinals made in the second half (other than one long run by Murray).  But I also think that the Bills got bit by something that everyone knew was going to bite some teams early this season:  there just isn't enough tape yet for coaches to figure out all the details of excellent kick coverage in this new format.  Everyone has done their best installing coverages they believe will work, but it is very much a work in progress.  You can be sure that every team, not just the Bills, will be studying that touchdown and adjusting their schemes. 

 

Shaw - I don’t think this is correct - they pretty much knew exactly where he could reach going that direction into the wind.  The previous 2 kicks were identical and both landed at exactly the 4 - exactly the same as the returned kick.  They had covered well on the first and the second was muffed.  Even the TD return was well covered.  They had a guy right at the point get blocked right in the back and pushed past the returner and then the 2nd wave had 2 guys wrap up and slide off and a 3rd guy sort of O’le out of the way. 
 

I think the pregame plan was to kick all to the endzone, but neither kicker could get the ball there with the wind.  The Bills felt good about their coverage and some bad play by a few guys and an uncalled penalty created the TD.

 

 

[ILBillsfan]

The cards had been blocking across in the middle on the returns and it was opening a hole right up the middle.  Head scrtching that there was not an adjustment.  Somethign to watch for moving forward that teams will really need to be paying attention more to what the other team is trying to do on the returns.  To me this needs to become more of an emphasis for places where wind will be an issues.  If there is not a wind issue imo they should be just kicking it thru the endzone.  Pre season the avg start position was the 28.5 and kicking it thru the endzone is ball at the 30 so it does not make sence unless they hoping to potentially get the holding or block in the back(not called on the TD return).  Still just makes too much sense to just boot it thru the endzone to me.  Cards made that decision after the first long return.

[That's No Moon]

Is it possible to to have players peel backwards after the ball is fielded to function as safeties or does everyone have to go forward?

[Rochesterfan]

14 minutes ago, ILBillsfan said:

The cards had been blocking across in the middle on the returns and it was opening a hole right up the middle.  Head scrtching that there was not an adjustment.  Somethign to watch for moving forward that teams will really need to be paying attention more to what the other team is trying to do on the returns.  To me this needs to become more of an emphasis for places where wind will be an issues.  If there is not a wind issue imo they should be just kicking it thru the endzone.  Pre season the avg start position was the 28.5 and kicking it thru the endzone is ball at the 30 so it does not make sence unless they hoping to potentially get the holding or block in the back(not called on the TD return).  Still just makes too much sense to just boot it thru the endzone to me.  Cards made that decision after the first long return.

 

Both the Bills and Cards kicked to the Endzone with the wind - that seemed to be the plan of just about every team.

 

Neither the Bills or Cards kicked to the endzone against the wind - neither kicker could get the ball there with the wind.
 

The Cards did not make the decision to kick to the endzone into the wind.  They had 1 kickoff in the first Quarter that was a long return and then tried squibing to start the 3rd quarter and left it short of the landing zone and the Bills got the ball at the 40 - they knew they could not get the ball to the endzone in that direction.

 

If the wind had allowed - both teams would have put every kick into the endzone, but the wind did not allow.

 

It is also difficult to know exactly what Arizona was blocking - up to the return for TD - they only had 1 return for 25 yards with the kick in the first quarter - where the player was tackled short of the 30.  The rest there was no return and therefore the up guys really never got to move.

 

The 2nd kick was muffed and never returned - downed inside the 5.

 

The TD return had a major block in the back right where the returner was going and 3 Bills with a chance to tackle him - it seems like they were pretty prepared for what the cards were doing - the players on the field failed the coach.
 

 

[Doc]

I think the line drive KO after going up 2 scores was to try and kick it through the end zone and get a touchback. 

[PromoTheRobot]

6 hours ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

So don't screw up. Got it.

And don't try.

[LDD]

The bigger issue is that when the Cards won the coin toss they elected to receive.  We elected to be with the wind in the 1st and 3rd.  This was nonsensical to me.  It's Marv Levy 101 to take the wind in the 2nd and 4th quarters.  In the fourth quarter at home with the momentum and the crowd there is no way we should have been battling the wind.  There would have been no chance for a Hail Murray into that roar either.  I didn't understand the choice to take the wind in the opening quarter and fight it in the last.  

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

It is harder - just look at the 6 kick-offs that went in that direction and the impact of the wind.  
 

Arizona #1 - Prater kicked deep - could only get the ball to the 2 and we had a 53 yard return.

Arizona #2 - Prater tried a squib and it hit short of the zone and the Bills got it at the 20.

 

Bills #1 - Deep kick to the 4 - return to the 29.

Bills #2 - Deep Kick to the 4 - muff

Bills #3 - Deep Kick to the 4 - TD return with a huge block in the back right at the point of contact and 2 Bills sliding off the runner and a third guy going O’le.

Bills #4 - Tried to squib, but kick goes OB.

 

The wind made it impossible going in that direction to get any kick to the end zone.  The Ball was getting held up and pushed short and if you tried to keep it short - the wind was pushing it hard toward the sideline where Bass’s kick went.

 

Squibs and low line drives are even harder now because it must go to the landing zone and if it is low enough an up man can knock it down short of the landing zone - so you have many fewer paths to try and squib the ball through.

 

 

 

 

Shaw - I don’t think this is correct - they pretty much knew exactly where he could reach going that direction into the wind.  The previous 2 kicks were identical and both landed at exactly the 4 - exactly the same as the returned kick.  They had covered well on the first and the second was muffed.  Even the TD return was well covered.  They had a guy right at the point get blocked right in the back and pushed past the returner and then the 2nd wave had 2 guys wrap up and slide off and a 3rd guy sort of O’le out of the way. 
 

I think the pregame plan was to kick all to the endzone, but neither kicker could get the ball there with the wind.  The Bills felt good about their coverage and some bad play by a few guys and an uncalled penalty created the TD.

 

 

Thanks very much for this. I haven't studied the return at all, and I didn't recall the previous kickoffs, either.