Von Miller proves the doubters wrong

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, Cash said:

I like this phrasing. There is no such thing as a risk-free decision in the NFL. The risk they took signing Miller didn’t exactly pan out. But it was a calculated decision on their part, weighing the upside against the risk. And given how good Miller looked pre-injury - particularly his clutch performances in big games - I can’t kill the decision making.
 

Best case scenario would be Miller salvaging some major value with a clutch sack or two in playoff victories. Im not expecting it but I don’t think it’s crazy. I’ve been watching him a lot of defense all year. I was pretty encouraged by his play early in the year, but IMO he hasn’t looked the same the last few weeks. I don’t think he’s looked awful, just a lot less impressed than I was early on. My hope is that he’s taking it easy by his standards, either because he’s only got so much left in the tank, and he’s trying to save it for the playoffs. It's also possible that Miller’s faced some tough matchups the last few weeks and has been getting beat.

I agree - sort of.    Every pick, every signing involves risk.   But it seemed like Beane knew he needed to generate some pass rush and went big on a guy who was probably on the downside of his career.   This wasn’t a normal NFL risk - it was an expensive gamble with a questionable payoff and huge opportunity cost.   We could have and should have used those dollars for more cost effective players.

[Magox]

Von Miller

 

Top 15% pass rush grade and top 25% run grade according to PFF

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/von-miller/6154#latestNewsWidget

 

 

 

Miller averages a pressure 13.9% of his pass rush reps. That's just behind Greg Rousseau's 14.8% for the highest pressure rate on the team.

 

https://atozsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-news/buffalo-bills-von-miller-crucial-role-greg-rousseau/#:~:text=Miller averages a pressure 13.9,pressure rate on the team.
 

And there were some who didn’t think he played well against the Rams, when he was out there he was getting lots of pressure and stopping runs.

 

For that game he had by far the highest rated game on defense and it wasn’t even close.  With an 84 rating and next highest was Benford in the high 60’s

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/pff-highest-graded-bills-players-144500820.html

 

When the defense as a whole struggles and there are no sacks or splash plays from defenders it’s difficult to find any good from anyone on defense.  Doesn’t take away from the fact that when he’s been out there, he’s been doing his job well.   
 

His snap count has been in the low 20’d per game, to put that into perspective Epenesa is getting in the low 30’s, Smoot is around 30, Rousseau is in the mid to high 40’s

 

Even Toohill is getting almost as many snaps per game.  His sack per snap rate is by far the highest on the team.

 

The Bills are purposely managing his snap count and I fully expect him to be getting snaps in the mid 30’s in the playoffs.

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Magox said:

His sack per snap rate is by far the highest on the team.

 

 

Not since suspension it isn't. If he'd carried on the pace from the first 4 games I don't think anyone would be disputing. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Yeah,

why consider zapruder film level analysis when we have WEO, famed message board warrior to tell us how it is.

 

 I was referring to that guy in his basement in the OP's link.  Highlights Miller getting pancaked by a double  team and says "but look at the pressure!"

 

 

[QCity]

11 hours ago, Magox said:

His snap count has been in the low 20’d per game, to put that into perspective Epenesa is getting in the low 30’s, Smoot is around 30, Rousseau is in the mid to high 40’s

 

First of all, you shouldn't use raw snap counts because they vary game to game. He's played ~80% of snaps his entire career and even in Buffalo before his injury he was around 65-70%.  Yes, even with our rotation, starting players get more snaps and when we signed him he actually was a starter. Since his injury he's been in the 30% range - that's called being a backup. That's right, AJ and Groot out-snap him 2-1. He comes on the field for obvious passing downs i.e. snaps where he should get pressures and sacks.

 

Second, there's 3 weeks left in the season and he has 4 sacks. PFF stats and blog articles aren't enough to spin that into a positive.

 

11 hours ago, Magox said:

The Bills are purposely managing his snap count and I fully expect him to be getting snaps in the mid 30’s in the playoffs.

 

They're not "managing" anything, he's a backup. People said the same thing for last year's playoffs and nothing changed. In the 25 games since his injury he's hit that number once. What, besides wishful thinking, makes you expect that?

[LabattBlue]

7 minutes ago, QCity said:

They're not "managing" anything, he's a backup. People said the same thing for last year's playoffs and nothing changed. In the 25 games since his injury he's hit that number once. What, besides wishful thinking, makes you expect that?

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[Dan]

22 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

The perception vs reality video tried really hard to show Von as a pass rush force. I am not sure I agree with some of the assessments. His run support has been there, but I still expect more from a HOF level player who was paid to close. 
 

Obv the injury is a major factor in this, so I don’t hold it against anyone but the fact of the matter is that I do not expect his snap share to significantly increase. Do you foresee him getting more than 40% of snaps in the post season? I do not. 
 

Groot Ed DQ Jones will all elevate their snaps, more like we’ve seen at times this year as well as in the playoffs last season. 

Agreed.  They show him rushing.. and the QB moves up in the pocket and completes a pass.  So that’s a “win” because he affected the QB and made him move. ??  what?    If that’s considered a pressure or win rate or whatever PFF stat ..I would say it explains why a lot of very average players are ranked so high.    
 

I’m not saying Von Is washed up.  I’m just saying ..making the QB move before he throws should not be the goal of a pass rusher!      I’ll wait till after the playoffs before I form an opinion on Von.  But, at this moment, I’d say his value is minimal at best.   

[transplantbillsfan]

Anyone watching that game could tell Von was CONSTANTLY getting quick pressure. 

 

Here's the problem... the quickest pressure can be negated by a QB who can quickly diagnose the D and release the ball.

 

Drake Maye looked like a 10 year vet in that game save a few plays.

 

His average release time was 1.94 seconds. That's INSANE!!!

 

Go watch Joe Marino's All-22 breakdown for further clarification.

[Dr.Sack]

37 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone watching that game could tell Von was CONSTANTLY getting quick pressure. 

 

Here's the problem... the quickest pressure can be negated by a QB who can quickly diagnose the D and release the ball.

 

Drake Maye looked like a 10 year vet in that game save a few plays.

 

His average release time was 1.94 seconds. That's INSANE!!!

 

Go watch Joe Marino's All-22 breakdown for further clarification.

Maye processes very fast and reminding me of a young Dan Marino. He’s got a quick release and knew the ball needed to be out quick or he was going to be destroyed. 

[Real McClappy]

47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Anyone watching that game could tell Von was CONSTANTLY getting quick pressure. 

 

Here's the problem... the quickest pressure can be negated by a QB who can quickly diagnose the D and release the ball.

 

Drake Maye looked like a 10 year vet in that game save a few plays.

 

His average release time was 1.94 seconds. That's INSANE!!!

 

Go watch Joe Marino's All-22 breakdown for further clarification.

The other thread said he sucked though? I'm so confused....

[transplantbillsfan]

Fun little bingo card game... check out the poster reactions to posts... any time you see someone "disagree" with someone who says something positive about Von... try betting yourself it's @GunnerBill ... you'll win that bet majority of the time...

 

I sadly think he’s still clinging to his offseason misconception about Miller

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Fun little bingo card game... check out the poster reactions to posts... any time you see someone "disagree" with someone who says something positive about Von... try betting yourself it's @GunnerBill ... you'll win that bet majority of the time...

 

I sadly think he’s still clinging to his offseason misconception about Miller

 

We agreed on 6 sacks as the metric. He needs 2 in the final 2 games to even get to that pretty low bar. 

 

You won't be getting many victory laps.

 

EDIT: and I am completely objective on it. See the thread @Savage started questioning his game Sunday. I defended Von. He played well v New England. I'd say one of his 3 best games of the year with Miami road and Indy. I am just a truth teller on this topic rather than someone clinging to a narrative.

Edited 11 hours ago by GunnerBill

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

Maye processes very fast and reminding me of a young Dan Marino. He’s got a quick release and knew the ball needed to be out quick or he was going to be destroyed. 

His arm wasn't as strong as Marino's and he doesn't have a quicker release.  Few have ever come close.  To me he's a less robotic Justin Herbert who also had that "it" factor is rookie year.

[Scott7975]

Von was our most consistent pass rusher before the suspension. After the suspension he's had some bad games. I think this Pats game looked worse than it was. There were a couple plays he looked like he loafed it out there. Like he was totally fooled on a fake hand off and the QB ran right by him with the ball as he jogged towards the guys that actually tackled him. I think he played better than it looked. He was getting pressure. Maye was pretty impressive though and it surprised me. He got rid of the ball fast and accurate. Not that our coverage was all that great. Still, he looked like a better version of Tua to me. Its the only game I have watched of him.

 

Vons biggest issue to me is he gets that pressure but doesn't finish it off. He lets the QB escape.

Edited 10 hours ago by Scott7975

[Spiderweb]

46 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

Von was our most consistent pass rusher before the suspension. After the suspension he's had some bad games. I think this Pats game looked worse than it was. There were a couple plays he looked like he loafed it out there. Like he was totally fooled on a fake hand off and the QB ran right by him with the ball as he jogged towards the guys that actually tackled him. I think he played better than it looked. He was getting pressure. Maye was pretty impressive though and it surprised me. He got rid of the ball fast and accurate. Not that our coverage was all that great. Still, he looked like a better version of Tua to me. Its the only game I have watched of him.

 

Vons biggest issue to me is he gets that pressure but doesn't finish it off. He lets the QB escape.

He makes an initial attempt at rushing the QB, but he no longer has the "bend" and explosion at the end. To this almost 6 decade old fan, he looks washed. Once his initial move is over, he's done and so many times I found myself upset with him loafing that I no longer want to see him out there. We could have spent the $$ so much better.... Von WAS great, but he clearly is running on fumes now 

Edited 9 hours ago by Spiderweb

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Hopefully he’s saving himself for the playoffs.

[Dablitzkrieg]

A lot of you don't know what you are talking about and it shows. Von had very consistent pressure all game long.  You just choose to not see it with the mob mentality that goes on here

 

[Doc]

As long as he shows up in the playoffs.

[Mister Defense]

Miller came close to making plays at least several  times against the patriots. I was yelling out as he got close each time...

 

Sort of how EJ Manuel started to come close to getting receivers the ball as he progressed as a Bill.  I was so happy--the balls were then often in the vicinity of the receivers! That was what I was thinking watching the likely all-but-done Von Miller on Sunday.  But unlike Manuel, Miller knows what he is doing, but simply cannot do it any longer.

 

His speed, moves, and quickness were what made Miller a great player.  Combine that with his desire and dedication to the game and he became a Hall of Famer. But in 14 games this year: 10 tackles, 4 assists, 4 sacks. Almost no impact in game after game after game. He is trying, but cannot do it anymore.

 

He is a liability now, looks all but done.  Very surprised he is still getting as many snaps as he does. Levy would not have a player like that on the field, playing mainly because of who he was rather than what he is now. 

 

Big Beane fan, as almost every conscious Bills' fan should be, but I still think Miller was his worst and most inexplicable move. It set the Bills back.  They needed a young up and coming  defensive player to put pressure on quarterbacks and disrupt offenses, someone who could grow with this team, become a cornerstone on  defense. Not a way overpriced much too told formerly great player on his last legs.

 

But still hoping Miller can summon his old ability in the very few snaps he may get in the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

[Mister Defense]

On 12/19/2024 at 1:33 PM, Simon said:

 

He's winning a lot of reps and affecting both the pass and run game.

It's infrequent because of his usage, but it is there.

I expect them to cut him loose when it counts in a few weeks; I just hope his conditioning is where it needs to be.

 

But it looks like he is incapable of "cutting it loose" physically any more.  He looks old and slow and almost all of the burst, quickness, and moves he had are gone.

 

Hope you are right and I am wrong.

 

He should take some kind of special energy supplement during the playoffs to end strong, as this is likely his last season.