Von Miller proves the doubters wrong

[hondo in seattle]

9 hours ago, Cash said:

I like this phrasing. There is no such thing as a risk-free decision in the NFL. The risk they took signing Miller didn’t exactly pan out. But it was a calculated decision on their part, weighing the upside against the risk. And given how good Miller looked pre-injury - particularly his clutch performances in big games - I can’t kill the decision making.
 

Best case scenario would be Miller salvaging some major value with a clutch sack or two in playoff victories. Im not expecting it but I don’t think it’s crazy. I’ve been watching him a lot of defense all year. I was pretty encouraged by his play early in the year, but IMO he hasn’t looked the same the last few weeks. I don’t think he’s looked awful, just a lot less impressed than I was early on. My hope is that he’s taking it easy by his standards, either because he’s only got so much left in the tank, and he’s trying to save it for the playoffs. It's also possible that Miller’s faced some tough matchups the last few weeks and has been getting beat.

I agree - sort of.    Every pick, every signing involves risk.   But it seemed like Beane knew he needed to generate some pass rush and went big on a guy who was probably on the downside of his career.   This wasn’t a normal NFL risk - it was an expensive gamble with a questionable payoff and huge opportunity cost.   We could have and should have used those dollars for more cost effective players.

[Magox]

Von Miller

 

Top 15% pass rush grade and top 25% run grade according to PFF

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/von-miller/6154#latestNewsWidget

 

 

 

Miller averages a pressure 13.9% of his pass rush reps. That's just behind Greg Rousseau's 14.8% for the highest pressure rate on the team.

 

https://atozsports.com/nfl/buffalo-bills-news/buffalo-bills-von-miller-crucial-role-greg-rousseau/#:~:text=Miller averages a pressure 13.9,pressure rate on the team.
 

And there were some who didn’t think he played well against the Rams, when he was out there he was getting lots of pressure and stopping runs.

 

For that game he had by far the highest rated game on defense and it wasn’t even close.  With an 84 rating and next highest was Benford in the high 60’s

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/pff-highest-graded-bills-players-144500820.html

 

When the defense as a whole struggles and there are no sacks or splash plays from defenders it’s difficult to find any good from anyone on defense.  Doesn’t take away from the fact that when he’s been out there, he’s been doing his job well.   
 

His snap count has been in the low 20’d per game, to put that into perspective Epenesa is getting in the low 30’s, Smoot is around 30, Rousseau is in the mid to high 40’s

 

Even Toohill is getting almost as many snaps per game.  His sack per snap rate is by far the highest on the team.

 

The Bills are purposely managing his snap count and I fully expect him to be getting snaps in the mid 30’s in the playoffs.

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Magox said:

His sack per snap rate is by far the highest on the team.

 

 

Not since suspension it isn't. If he'd carried on the pace from the first 4 games I don't think anyone would be disputing. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Yeah,

why consider zapruder film level analysis when we have WEO, famed message board warrior to tell us how it is.

 

 I was referring to that guy in his basement in the OP's link.  Highlights Miller getting pancaked by a double  team and says "but look at the pressure!"

 

 

[QCity]

11 hours ago, Magox said:

His snap count has been in the low 20’d per game, to put that into perspective Epenesa is getting in the low 30’s, Smoot is around 30, Rousseau is in the mid to high 40’s

 

First of all, you shouldn't use raw snap counts because they vary game to game. He's played ~80% of snaps his entire career and even in Buffalo before his injury he was around 65-70%.  Yes, even with our rotation, starting players get more snaps and when we signed him he actually was a starter. Since his injury he's been in the 30% range - that's called being a backup. That's right, AJ and Groot out-snap him 2-1. He comes on the field for obvious passing downs i.e. snaps where he should get pressures and sacks.

 

Second, there's 3 weeks left in the season and he has 4 sacks. PFF stats and blog articles aren't enough to spin that into a positive.

 

11 hours ago, Magox said:

The Bills are purposely managing his snap count and I fully expect him to be getting snaps in the mid 30’s in the playoffs.

 

They're not "managing" anything, he's a backup. People said the same thing for last year's playoffs and nothing changed. In the 25 games since his injury he's hit that number once. What, besides wishful thinking, makes you expect that?

[LabattBlue]

7 minutes ago, QCity said:

They're not "managing" anything, he's a backup. People said the same thing for last year's playoffs and nothing changed. In the 25 games since his injury he's hit that number once. What, besides wishful thinking, makes you expect that?

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

[Dan]

22 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

The perception vs reality video tried really hard to show Von as a pass rush force. I am not sure I agree with some of the assessments. His run support has been there, but I still expect more from a HOF level player who was paid to close. 
 

Obv the injury is a major factor in this, so I don’t hold it against anyone but the fact of the matter is that I do not expect his snap share to significantly increase. Do you foresee him getting more than 40% of snaps in the post season? I do not. 
 

Groot Ed DQ Jones will all elevate their snaps, more like we’ve seen at times this year as well as in the playoffs last season. 

Agreed.  They show him rushing.. and the QB moves up in the pocket and completes a pass.  So that’s a “win” because he affected the QB and made him move. ??  what?    If that’s considered a pressure or win rate or whatever PFF stat ..I would say it explains why a lot of very average players are ranked so high.    
 

I’m not saying Von Is washed up.  I’m just saying ..making the QB move before he throws should not be the goal of a pass rusher!      I’ll wait till after the playoffs before I form an opinion on Von.  But, at this moment, I’d say his value is minimal at best.