4th Down Decision

[MJS]

I'm curious what the analytics said there. I can definately see both sides.

[dma0034]

Based on how the game was going it was the right call. Bills Defense held the Cardinals to 3 points in the second half.

 

If the script were reversed and the Cardinals were scoring a lot on the 2nd half and that exact situation unfolded I would expect the Bills to go for it. 

[peterpan]

Allen should have used a TO on third down.  I believe this was the drive, they were late out of the huddle, rushed to the line, and had to snap it right away.  The AZ safety showed blitz and came.  With more time Allen likely audibles.  Such an import down just take the TO.  

[Mat68]

Make a TD beat you.  So I get it.  Maybe part of it was have Bass attempt a pressure kick.  Give him confidence have the defense get a stop.  They did all in all it worked out.  I didn’t trust Bass or the defense so was on team go for it.  

[amprov56]

1 hour ago, T.E. said:

I thought they should've gone for it, but it was clear that McDermott was playing for three, which I thought was the more egregious decision in that scenario. 

And if they came up short and turned the ball over to the Cards things could have ended very differently. Then you would be crucifying McDermott for not kicking the FG, oh ya, we won!

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Process said:

4th and 1 or 2 is slam dunk go for it. 4th and a long 3 I probably still would have, but I always lean aggressive and don't think it was a terrible decision to kick. 

 

The third down play call was the much bigger issue. 

Even if it was 4th and 1 or 2 going for it would have been more of an incorrect call or bigger risk. A 1st down wouldn't seal the game because Arizona still had all their time outs. That fact alone screams kick the FG. Add in the Arizona offense was doing nothing the whole second half. 

 

Now, if we want to go back in time look at the KC playoff game. That was the time for the Bills to be in 4 down territory. To plan each plAy accordingly. But let's not go there. I'd never give Mahomes an option win the game. 

[SectionC3]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

if it was 4th and 1, I would have preferred to go for it and McD likely would have.  4th and 3, make them have to score a TD to win by kicking the FG...Bass was kicking well all day and in pre-game so I didn't have an issue with it.

I hated it in the stadium because bass was brutal during the halftime break from distance in that direction.  Maybe — maybe — made half of his kicks.  Granted, he was working from distance up to 50,  but I was not confident in that decision.  
 

Upon further reflection, though, I get it.  By that point we had basically figured out how to shut Murray down - pin him on the edge, blitz up the middle and get in his face so he can’t see, and force him to get rid of it quickly.  It was working, so I get the logic in kicking (McD didn’t see the halftime mess) and trusting ST to make a tackle in a  KO that wasn’t reaching the end zone with the wind, and playing D.  Bass of course shanked it OOB which made it more interesting than it should have been, but I get the logic more today than I did yesterday. 

[Sweats]

If it were up to me, i'd go for it on every 4th down

[dave mcbride]

2 hours ago, Process said:

4th and 1 or 2 is slam dunk go for it. 4th and a long 3 I probably still would have, but I always lean aggressive and don't think it was a terrible decision to kick. 

 

The third down play call was the much bigger issue. 

I thought second down was more egregious. That was perfect for play action and the Cardinals had been shutting down the run all second half. Cook had 26 yards on his final 13 carries.

[newcam2012]

16 minutes ago, Sweats said:

If it were up to me, i'd go for it on every 4th down

Did you see the raiders coach decision to punt it? What a huge mistake. The Raiders were down with around 7 minutes to go. It was 4th and 2 and they were at around the Charger 42 yard line. Just amazingly dumb. I like him as a coach but that's a huge blunder. I'm not sure you can even defend the decision to punt. 

19 minutes ago, Sweats said:

If it were up to me, i'd go for it on every 4th down

Not me. It depends on a lot of variables. Now, if it's Mahomes I'm going for every time. 

[GunnerBill]

I didn't like the play calls on 2nd and 3rd down. I think Allen's hand might have played into it but I thought those were two poor calls. Not because they were runs. But because it was obvious what was coming. They should have tried the QB keeper 2nd down then spread it out but with an inbuilt run on 3rd. 

 

Once if got to 4th down I know the math but honestly I was fine with them kicking. The Bills had all but shut the Arizona offense down second half. I felt pretty confident they weren't scoring 7. So I don't mind anyone being mad because the math supports them. But flow of the game I understood it.

Edited September 9 by GunnerBill

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Wondering everyone's thoughts on McD going for the 39 yard FG into the wind? It was 4th and 3 with a few minutes on the clock. Bills were up 3 points. Arizona had all 3 of their time outs. 

 

As for myself, I was all for kicking the FG. I was pretty confident Bass would make it because he looked solid all game. Almost like his old reliable self. I felt going up 6 would be good enough. Force Arizona to get a TD. Sure it leaves the door open but it's was still a tough ask for Arizona. No doubt it would be nervous time. 

 

Making the 4th down conversation still didn't close the door on Arizona since they still had all their timeouts. Missing the conversion would have been terrible. Pretty much giving Arizona a chance to win the game and a great chance to tie it. Of course, there was always a chance the Bills could have came back and gotten a game winning FG. 

 

Its not just that decision.  To me it looked like they were playing for 3 points and not to go for the throat. To me that was a bad decision in itself.  As for the not going for it on 4th down, I dont agree with that decision either.

 

First off its windy af and Bass hasnt exactly been the best kicker in the league. So if he misses, its the same thing as missing a 4th down but probably gives them better field position. The next thing is that I dont view getting 3 points there is much of anything.  All they did was prevent a possible tie.  If we missed the 4th down and Arizona marched down and kicked a field goal, all that would happen is they would tie. So they would still need a TD to beat us.  Even with the field goal if they got a TD they would have beat us.  If we make the first down then we either use up all Arizonas timeouts and end up kicking a fg or we score a TD and put the game out of reach.

 

Going for it on 4th down is the correct move IMO.  

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

I don’t get why everyone is worked up over the FG to go up by six. I question the 2nd and 3rd down play calling. IMO that’s where the scrutiny should be at. 
 

Don’t convert the 4th and 3 and IMO AZ easily ties the game. 

 

I think it’s fair to question both decisions.

 

To be honest, I don’t mind the 3rd down play call. What I do mind is rushing to snap the ball just as the play clock is about to expire. Call timeout and get everyone settled.

 

Kicking the field goal (into the wind), is a recipe for disaster. It worked out, but we could have easily been called for PI at the 3 yard line and then we may all be thinking differently about kicking that field goal.

 

I think prime Brady & Belichick go for 4th down there.

[T.E.]

2 hours ago, amprov56 said:

And if they came up short and turned the ball over to the Cards things could have ended very differently. Then you would be crucifying McDermott for not kicking the FG, oh ya, we won!

We won because Murray inexplicably missed a wide-open Harrison for a sure TD and because Ingraham thankfully wasn't called for PI on the last Arizona play. It's not like McDermott's strategy over the last three minutes was integral to success.

[QLBillsFan]

3 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

I don’t get why everyone is worked up over the FG to go up by six. I question the 2nd and 3rd down play calling. IMO that’s where the scrutiny should be at. 
 

Don’t convert the 4th and 3 and IMO AZ easily ties the game. 

You are spot on!! 2nd 3 how about a play action safe roll out quick toss to te/ Josh  run? The two calls to run with 10 in box was as if the FG puts the Bills up two scores. A first down  essentially seals the game. Meanwhile both the ST and D were not playing exactly lights out. Immediately followed by a kick out of bounds and a short field. And possibly a break or two for the Bills. Certainly can’t say we coached that well. It just reinforces the question about our HC in tight game situations 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Simon]

36 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I didn't like the play calls on 2nd and 3rd down. I think Allen's hand might have played into it

 

It was out of character enough that I'm almost positive that is exactly what it was about.

Did they run to the right either time (i.e. did Allen hand off with his left hand)?

[amprov56]

11 minutes ago, T.E. said:

We won because Murray inexplicably missed a wide-open Harrison for a sure TD and because Ingraham thankfully wasn't called for PI on the last Arizona play. It's not like McDermott's strategy over the last three minutes was integral to success.

Woookay, dream on, stay mad, why are guys like you so angry and negative!!!! Go Bills!!!! I am intrigued by you people, Oh ya, the Bills won and that drives you crazy!

Edited September 9 by amprov56

[QLBillsFan]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

There's a metric and a chart that regularly tracks how often NFL head coaches go for it on 4th down when they "should" (i.e. when the analytics say that it's statistically logical to do so), and McDermott consistently ranks at or near the very top.

For any of the game day decision making things that people can knock McDermott for, this -- in my opinion -- is not one of them. He's become a very good (and usually aggressive) 4th down decision maker, and I expect that to continue this year. In fact, I expect him to be even MORE aggressive on 4th down due to Bass's struggles from 50+ yards out.

Another poster suggested a time out when Josh seems hurried to beat the clock ⏰.. Josh owns that a bit but so does SM. Heck Andy Reid is so amazing he has his DC call TO’s 😆!!!

[newcam2012]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Its not just that decision.  To me it looked like they were playing for 3 points and not to go for the throat. To me that was a bad decision in itself.  As for the not going for it on 4th down, I dont agree with that decision either.

 

First off its windy af and Bass hasnt exactly been the best kicker in the league. So if he misses, its the same thing as missing a 4th down but probably gives them better field position. The next thing is that I dont view getting 3 points there is much of anything.  All they did was prevent a possible tie.  If we missed the 4th down and Arizona marched down and kicked a field goal, all that would happen is they would tie. So they would still need a TD to beat us.  Even with the field goal if they got a TD they would have beat us.  If we make the first down then we either use up all Arizonas timeouts and end up kicking a fg or we score a TD and put the game out of reach.

 

Going for it on 4th down is the correct move IMO.  

I hear you. I disagree with you with the exception of the first part of your 1st paragraph. I think this type of thinking should have been in play vs KC. You make your offensive calls knowing you are in 4 down territory. They didn't do that yesterday or vs the Chiefs. Yesterday, I don't think it was a mistake. However, vs KC is was a huge error in philosophy, judgement, and mentality. Why? Because a FG only tied the game and gave the ball back to KC. 

 

I was confident Bass was going to make the FG. I was pretty confident a 6 point lead would hold up due to the way the defense was playing. Due to the lack of offensive weapons Arizona has. Due to the home crowd advantage. Under those circumstances I think kicking the FG was prudent and less risky. There is a huge difference between a team needing a FG to tie vs a TD to win it. Not sure of the odds but has to be a huge difference. 

 

I think it's pretty safe to say that a missed 4th down attempt would have led to a Arizona FG. Likely OT or a very long Bass attempt against the wind. No way did I want to go to OT. 

 

Just my two cents. 

35 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I think it’s fair to question both decisions.

 

To be honest, I don’t mind the 3rd down play call. What I do mind is rushing to snap the ball just as the play clock is about to expire. Call timeout and get everyone settled.

 

Kicking the field goal (into the wind), is a recipe for disaster. It worked out, but we could have easily been called for PI at the 3 yard line and then we may all be thinking differently about kicking that field goal.

 

I think prime Brady & Belichick go for 4th down there.

But it's Allen and McD. You are comparing apples to oranges here. Brady was damn near automatic under those conditions. 

[GottaRun]

I'm okay with it, we need Bass to get his mojo back, gotta give him chances to make kicks with pressure