THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Gotta Like the Start

[DrDawkinstein]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

The Rockpile Review – by Shaw66

 

One of the earmarks of  Sean McDermott teams is that they are extremely well prepared coming out of preseason.  His teams tend to play well early, because they are better prepared.  Of course, one of the problems with that system is that later in the season and into the playoffs, everyone else is well prepared, too.  In that environment, preparedness is necessary, but it isn’t a real difference maker.

 

 

 

Funny because from what I saw, we looked like an undisciplined, poorly-coached team that happens to have a Josh Allen.

[LittleSammy]

14 hours ago, Peace Frog said:

My biggest complaint from today's game was the missed tackles. If I had a dime for the missed tackles I counted today on D & ST, I'd have a bunch of dimes. Missed tackles and dropped passes are always the bane of this team. However, it was an entertaining game.

You are right on point. What makes it more frustrating is missed tackles have been an issue for the Bills teams for much of McDermott's time in Buffalo. It needs to improve before playing KC and the other heavy hitters on the schedule.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

18 minutes ago, LittleSammy said:

You are right on point. What makes it more frustrating is missed tackles have been an issue for the Bills teams for much of McDermott's time in Buffalo. It needs to improve before playing KC and the other heavy hitters on the schedule.

Missed tackles drive me crazy too. I have watched almost all of the week one games and there is one common issue with defenses.  They all missed a bunch of tackles.  It's probably the result of bad technique, minimal tackling to the ground in training camp, and starters not playing much in preseason games.  Even though it generally gets better as the season goes on, it remains a problem across the league. Giving away those extra yards after contact can mean the difference between forcing a punt or giving up a first down. 

[Shaw66]

Missed tackles is an interesting point.  And I agree that it probably is a league-wide early problem because of how preseason is conducted now.   These are guys who have been going through the motions for a couple of months.  Skill players too.   The difference is that offensive guys - running backs and run-after-catch guys, are letting all their physical aggressiveness take over - they are hitting as hard as they can, running as fast as they can, everything.  It's like their fight or flight decision-making parts of the brain take over.  The defenders, on the other, haven't gotten back into the habit of playing with that kind of intensity.  So, for a play or two, or even a week or two, they are sloppier, just a tad slower.  Not every player, not every play, but there are a lot of plays where a defender just doesn't get the job done the way he should.  

 

Think of Shakir's touchdown.  It was fabulous, because Shakir was running like a scared rabbit, but in part it happened because the hunters (defenders) simply didn't do their jobs well enough. 

 

Defenses will catch up, and I expect the tackling will improve.  If it doesn't, well, that will tell us something about some of these players. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

A Win is a Win is a Win.

 

Still, the Unicorn putting this team on his shoulders yet again- is virtually solely responsible for it, because of his All Time Record tieing performance. We all hope the WRs are getting sorted. 

However…

The D was slow to get going against a bottom feeder and the tackling atrocious.

9 Penalties at Home is abysmal.

A ST TD return is embarrassing.

 

Not ready for Prime Time Yet and the going gets tougher on Thursday!

[AKC]

2 hours ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

 It's probably the result of bad technique, minimal tackling to the ground in training camp, and starters not playing much in preseason games. 

 

That loss of any real "training" of fundamentals before the games go live (due to CBA restrictions on practice contact) continues to stand out as the biggest contributor.  It will be no surprise to watch Elam end up moving on to a team that relies less on their DBs in primary run stoppage than the McD system. It seems the staff felt he could become a great cover corner and at least become a reliable tackler but he shows no signs of the appetite for getting down and dirty. He is far too athletic to have been unable on the kick return yesterday to just move right and get in front of Dallas's knees to slow momentum and allow at minimum a team stop on the play. Instead he whiffs on a waist high glance that invites no real impact to him- a lot like what you can see in in youth footballers, some who haven't even hit their teens.  I don't know how his days are not now numbered based upon the Nickel/Dime D we play, the renewed interest of more teams league-wide to present a more consistent rushing threat, and his increasing body of film showing he doesn't really want to mix things up.

[harmonkillebrew]

I don't know if McDermott teams always come prepared for game 1.  They laid an egg at the Jets last year. Stunk against the Steelers in 2021.  That's what I was kind of holding on to during that crappy 1st half.  Credits to the team and staff for turning it around in 2nd half, although that kick return felt like another classic Bills pulling defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

The Cardinals were a 4-win team last year, so I'm cautiously optimistic.

The Defense looks like a work in progress, but the spread the ball around offense and the new Oline had a good debut.

And of course, Josh is still a beast. He single handedly wins games for this team week in and out.

[billsfan89]

After 24 hours plus to "digest" the game I have to say that there's a lot to like about the game but some stuff to be concerned about. I think what impressed me was the Bills turning things up when they absolutely needed to. The offense knew that in order to really get back into the game with 3 minutes left in the first half they had to get the "double dip" and I think they knew that a field goal to get it to 17-6 was not going to be the momentum getter that they really needed. I also think the offense knew the defense needed a break. The defense had been gassed by the Cards who had 3 long scoring drives putting them on their heels and dominating time of possession. 

 

But the offense got the defense something like a 40-50 minutes real time break between running out the clock on the last 3 minutes of the first half (that drive probably took 12-15 minutes due to the many stoppages/timeouts), then half time, and then the opening drive of the second half that was over 5.5 minutes of game time (a drive that probably took 15ish minutes of real time). The defensive players got to really lick their sores physically and mentally while the defensive coaches got to adjust the gameplan. 

 

McD talks about complementary football and this game was a perfect example of that. The defense got smacked in the mouth and the offense started out OK but coughed up a turnover and settled for a field goal on their first two drives. The Bills get just their third possession on the game and knew that they had to give the defense a rest and spark the team back to the second half and get the chance to "double dip", the offense had to know the defense needed a breather. 

 

The offense gave the defense just that. And the defense then gave the offense a boost. The defense started the second half with a 3 and out and got the ball back to the offense but the offense turned it its first three and out. So the defense then forced their own turnover and got the ball back to the offense with good field position and the offense punched it in for the 7 point lead. Both sides of the ball helped shift the game more towards the Bills.

 

But you have to be concerned about the defense and more importantly the special teams. The defense I think came out flat but locked down in the second half. I think McD is a great defensive coach (esp in the regular season) so I think McD and Bobby B will get the secondary and LB core adjusted and improved as the season goes on. But special teams is a concern. Had they not had the one huge return given up I would say it was a good day. Even Bass kicking it out of bounds on the attempted squibb was forgivable (and honestly the only other mistake) but the return TD just leaves a concern about general special teams play. Bass did make his mostly short kicks which hopefully will lead to him regaining his confidence while Martin did a decent job on his lone punt. 

[Old Coot]

The OL played very well in the power run game. Cook looked so good because he was able to get through the DL essentially untouched. Not taking anything away from Cook -- just sayin'.

 

The OL had some trouble with the blitz and the Cards blitzed often. Nowadays with the ability of Ds to disguise who is blitzing, it's difficult for the OL.  We are lucky enough to have Josh whose escapability makes up for the Os failure to pick up a free blitzer.

[Figster]

14 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Funny because from what I saw, we looked like an undisciplined, poorly-coached team that happens to have a Josh Allen.

Sure you weren't watching Ken Dorsey and the Browns O?

 

Poorly coached? 

 

Awwwww come on man😜 ( I kid Doc)

 

Thanks Shaww for another great review. Love hearing your take. The Bills/Allen spread the ball around well in the pass and run game. So well, it had me asking myself, why isn't Kincaid getting more touches, or Keon Coleman. Only so many balls to go around.  Diggs would have hated it. A formula by Joe Brady that compliments the D and wins football games.

 

We discussed this in the past. Another horrible call by the officials in the 1st half really left a bad taste in my mouth, I could see it on the faces of the fans. Missed or wrong calls by the Officiating crew needs to be included in a red flag challenge IMO. Especially when the call or non call has a direct impact on game. Officials need to be officiated sometimes. Adds a little more integrity into the officiating part of the game.

 

Its an easy fix IMO. 

 

Go Bills!!! 

 

Edited September 10 by Figster

[transient]

Lost to the Steelers in 2021, beat Rams 2022, lost to the Jets in 2023… I don’t know that I buy into the premise that they’re any more or less prepared under McDermott than any other team to start the season. They had their moments, but ultimately they let an inferior opponent hang around until the very end Sunday… it’s only getting tougher from here. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 9/9/2024 at 12:34 AM, Sierra Foothills said:

It's tough to win in the NFL and the Bills get everyone's best shot.

 

It looked like the Cards had a nice offensive game plan and Kyler was playing lights out. I think they're a pretty good offensive football team.

 

The Bills faced a fair amount of adversity being down 17-3 but I never sensed panic and for them to turn it around with TD drives just before and just after halftime was clutch. "Mr. Overrated" was his usual brilliant self, of course. Because of him this is a golden era in Bills football and I'm forever appreciative.

 

Considering that the Bills have 4 new starters on offense and 4 new starters on defense there was a good chance that they would look disjointed today. But after they settled down they looked like a confident, veteran team, assignment sound and well-drilled in their systems. Both the offense and the defense seemed to make good adjustments. Among the many positive signs and good performances it was particularly heartening to see Von Miller being a force in the second half.

 

I give McDermott and company high marks for weathering the early storm, pulling it together and getting the win (and almost the blowout).

As a fan, I didn’t panic either when the Bills were down 2 TD’s near the end of the half almost the same way I don’t when they are facing a 3rd and long. Other teams you just know it’s over when facing that kind of deficit. I have so much confidence in Allen and the offense’s ability to pile on points in a short amount of time so a half and some change left seems like an eternity. It almost seems like they play better when faced w/ some kind of pressure. 
 

The announcers made a point about the Cardinals possibly being a playoff team. Nobody knows this early in the season, but I think it was a solid victory against a 9-10 win team. Kyler Murray will always be a handful because he’s a very athletic QB who can also throw the ball. I forgot the stat, but he’s the only QB to average other than Allen to average 250+ passing yards and 40+ rush yards a game. 

[DrDawkinstein]

58 minutes ago, transient said:

Lost to the Steelers in 2021, beat Rams 2022, lost to the Jets in 2023… I don’t know that I buy into the premise that they’re any more or less prepared under McDermott than any other team to start the season. They had their moments, but ultimately they let an inferior opponent hang around until the very end Sunday… it’s only getting tougher from here. 

 

Letting inferior opponents hang around is bullet point #4 in McD's playbook.

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, Old Coot said:

The OL had some trouble with the blitz and the Cards blitzed often. Nowadays with the ability of Ds to disguise who is blitzing, it's difficult for the OL.  We are lucky enough to have Josh whose escapability makes up for the Os failure to pick up a free blitzer.

I think Allen handled the blitz well.  When the Bills went five-wide in the red zone, the blitz almost certainly was coming, and Allen knew that he'd have Hollins coming free over the middle.  If Allen keeps executing like that, teams will stop blitzing him.  

 

Absence of blitzing is the true hallmark of great quarterbacks.  Pretty much everyone stopped blitzing Brady later in his career, because Brady always knew where to find the open guy against six or fewer guys covering the receivers.  

[Avisan]

56 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Letting inferior opponents hang around is bullet point #4 in McD's playbook.

Do you feel that this is consistent with the Bills having the best point differential in the league over the last several seasons?

 

 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, transient said:

Lost to the Steelers in 2021, beat Rams 2022, lost to the Jets in 2023… I don’t know that I buy into the premise that they’re any more or less prepared under McDermott than any other team to start the season. They had their moments, but ultimately they let an inferior opponent hang around until the very end Sunday… it’s only getting tougher from here. 

I didn't say they win every game at the beginning of the season.  Lost to the Steelers in 2021, and won the next three games 35-0, 43-21, and 40-0.  Won the first two games of 2022 31-10 and 41-7.  In 2023, after losing to the Jets, they won 38-10, 37-3, 48-20.   Those scores indicate a team that is ahead of the curve on teams early in the season.  

[DrDawkinstein]

31 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Do you feel that this is consistent with the Bills having the best point differential in the league over the last several seasons?

 

 

 

Two different things. Being able to win big a few times a season because Josh is rolling, or ultimately winning by 10+ because of a late TD, are not indicators of situations where we have chances to put teams away early and instead play conservatively and keep it close until the end.

[Avisan]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Two different things. Being able to win big a few times a season because Josh is rolling, or ultimately winning by 10+ because of a late TD, are not indicators of situations where we have chances to put teams away early and instead play conservatively and keep it close until the end.

Is there any evidence, statistically, that supports the idea that McDermott has a notably conservative approach, or that the Bills let teams hang around more than other teams with comparable records each season?

[DrDawkinstein]

4 minutes ago, Avisan said:

Is there any evidence, statistically, that supports the idea that McDermott has a notably conservative approach, or that the Bills let teams hang around more than other teams with comparable records each season?

 

No, they dont track "weak situational decisions" as stats. You have to go back and watch as we neglect to even try to take advantages of situations where we could put teams away. There's never a killer instinct when we have teams on the verge of breaking. We'll play conservative and run the ball, or drop into a prevent defense way too early in a game. Happens all the time, watch for it the rest of this season.

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

No, they dont track "weak situational decisions" as stats. You have to go back and watch as we neglect to even try to take advantages of situations where we could put teams away. There's never a killer instinct when we have teams on the verge of breaking. We'll play conservative and run the ball, or drop into a prevent defense way too early in a game. Happens all the time, watch for it the rest of this season.

I generally agree with you that McDermott is conservative.  I think he's conservative in a lot of ways.  

 

He comes by it honestly - he studies the game, all the time, and his conclusions from all of his study are that the way to succeed in football most often is to be good consistently rather than to be great occasionally.  Listening to you, I think you disagree with that philosophy.  There's an endless argument to be had about which is the better philosophy.  

 

The problem with trying to be great occasionally is that it requires the coach to be smart about when to try.  Once as head coach of the Jets, less than a minute to go with a lead and the opponent inside their own ten, Rex Ryan rushed six and gave up a 90+-yard touchdown to lose the game.  Rex was really dumb about trying to be great, and it was one of the reasons he was lousy coach.  

 

On the other hand, the best practitioners of being aggressive are good at it.  

 

I don't think McDermott is a guy who can be good at the aggressive approach.  I think it goes against his nature.  He may know he should be more aggressive, but he doesn't give me the feeling that he has the sense of the moment that a good gambler does.   That isn't who he is.  Yes, he gambles occasionally, especially blitzing late in games, but in general he tends to fall back on the philosophy that it's a long game, we'll have other opportunities, best to preserve field position.   And it's hard to argue with that view - he has won a lot games doing it.  

 

One other thought that I think people miss:  I think this notion of "putting teams away" is mistaken.  Look at the scores from yesterday - most of the games were decided by less than a touchdown.  It happens every week - that's one consequence of parity in the league.  We, the fans, have this mental image of a dominant team rolling over opponent after opponent.   Once in a while there's a team like that early in the season, but not late in the season.   Games in the NFL are close; they're close more often than they are blow outs, and the same teams isn't recording blowouts over and over.   You don't see many games with the backup QB mopping up on the field with eight minutes left.  Most games remain undecided at the two minute warning.  

 

McDermott's philosophy is that it's easier to teach a team to be good play after play than to teach them to succeed at high-risk, high-reward plays when called on to do it a few times a game.  His philosophy clearly is (he's said it often) teach everyone his job on every play in every situation, and if every guy does his job, over the long run he'll have more successful plays than the opponent.  

 

I'm not trying to convince you he's right.  I'm just trying to explain the reality of how the Bills seem to be organized.