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No coach has ever made their first superbowl after being with a team for 7+ years


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Who cares? What are you going to do about it? Maybe you should write congress. They either win one or they don’t. McDermott will either eventually get fired or he won’t.

 

Just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t. most of those coaches were probably fired in that time frame. Therefor it never had a chance to happen. 
 

just like it’s tough to get rid of a QB like Tua or Jackson or Dak, it’s tough to fire a coach that has the team in contention just about every year. Especially when they have practically no elite game changing stars on the roster. 
 

imagine if Reid got fired before getting Mahomes. What if they weren’t the team that got Mahomes. Would he still have a Super Bowl? 

Edited by Scott7975
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I read the thread title, and knew it was yet another fire the head coach thread, man that dead horse is taking a beating, 

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4 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

What makes us think McDermott will be the first coach to ever break this trend ? Players get tired of the same message year in and year out if it's not producing championships.

 

So how many teams have you been fans of who won Superbowl?  As my Honors Statistics teacher told me "Using correct data set and measuring tool you can get any result you wish - remember that when writing your resume"

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you need a license for stat fishing out of season. Try doing your homework!

 

Belichick won his first Superbowl in his 7th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/BeliBi0.htm

 

Bill Cowher won his first Superbowl in his 14th year as Steelers head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CowhBi0.htm

 

Tom Coughlin won his first Superbowl in his 7th year with the Giants and 11th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CougTo0.htm

 

Tom Landry didn't win a Superbowl until his 12th year as Cowboys head Coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/LandTo0.htm

 

Tony Dungy didn't win a Superbowl until his 11th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DungTo0.htm

 

John Madden won a Superbowl in his 8th year as Raiders head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/MaddJo0.htm

 

It's called The internet!

 

Edited by stuvian
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1 hour ago, stuvian said:

you need a license for stat fishing out of season. Try doing your homework!

 

Belichick won his first Superbowl in his 7th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/BeliBi0.htm

 

Bill Cowher won his first Superbowl in his 14th year as Steelers head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CowhBi0.htm

 

Tom Coughlin won his first Superbowl in his 7th year with the Giants and 11th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CougTo0.htm

 

Tom Landry didn't win a Superbowl until his 12th year as Cowboys head Coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/LandTo0.htm

 

Tony Dungy didn't win a Superbowl until his 11th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DungTo0.htm

 

John Madden won a Superbowl in his 8th year as Raiders head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/MaddJo0.htm

 

It's called The internet!

 

Belichick, Coughlin, and Dungy don't qualify but good find.


The stat everyone always clings to is that a coach hasn't won a Super Bowl with the same QB after five years of being together.  My counter to that is Josh has only been elite for four years.  It took Dungy and Manning five seasons to win it after numerous heartbreaks.  Maybe this is our year.  Who knows.

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4 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:


The OP is wrong but you’re too risk-averse.
 

Plenty of good coaches have been hired since 13 seconds. Including Doug Peterson who was my answer to your gotcha question back then and out coached McDermott last season. 

 

Peterson is darn average. He will never win another Superbowl. That was a lightening in a bottle season. 

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3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Who cares? What are you going to do about it? Maybe you should write congress. They either win one or they don’t. McDermott will either eventually get fired or he won’t.

 

Just because it hasn’t happened doesn’t mean it won’t. most of those coaches were probably fired in that time frame. Therefor it never had a chance to happen. 
 

just like it’s tough to get rid of a QB like Tua or Jackson or Dak, it’s tough to fire a coach that has the team in contention just about every year. Especially when they have practically no elite game changing stars on the roster. 
 

imagine if Reid got fired before getting Mahomes. What if they weren’t the team that got Mahomes. Would he still have a Super Bowl? 


So you’re saying there’s a…… no chance. 
 

I knew it

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If you put enough qualifiers on something (7 years, same team, 5 years, same QB, etc.) you can create a stat that appears to prove any point.

 

Also, it is really hard to prove that something is impossible when it is statistically possible. As long as McD is a head coach, there is a statistical possibility of him winning a Super Bowl. Can I prove he will win a Super Bowl? No. But can anyone prove that he can't/won't win a Super Bowl? Also no.

 

Of the 35 Super Bowl winning head coaches, 11 of them took 7+ years to win their first Super Bowl. That is 31.4% of them, or almost 1/3 of SB winning coaches took more than 7 years to win their first one. Here are the number of years it took for those 11 coaches to win the big game: 7, 8, 8, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 12 14, and 21 years. Only 3 of the 11 had made a SB appearance (loss) prior to winning. So, there are 8 SB-winning head coaches who didn't even make a SB appearance until 7+ years into their head coaching career.

 

Whether it was with another team or another QB doesn't really add much to the discussion imo because each situation is unique. For instance, did the coach start with a vet QB in the prime of his career? Or a rookie who is pro ready? Or a rookie QB who is raw? Or did he not get his franchise QB until year 2 or 3? Did the coach take over a team that was talented and on the verge of being a consistent winner? Or did the coach take over a team that was devoid of talent or needed to be gutted...a rebuild? Without the context of each situation, those qualifiers aren't really useful for comparison.

 

The fact that 11 guys have won a SB after 7+ years of head coaching doesn't prove McD will do it, but I think it does disprove any stat that is trying to say that it is impossible for him to do it.

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7 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

The Bills have the 2nd best record in the NFL over the past 5 years.  Statistically it's much easier to get worse than better with a new coach as there's much less room for improvement.

Really? We won the second most Super Bowls? 

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10 hours ago, boater said:

McDermott haters.... in their vivid imaginations, there is a more qualified sure-fire coach out there just waiting for a job. Waiting for the Bills job to be more specific. This unicorn coach hasn't been hired by the other 31 teams because they don't see the diamond in the rough.

 

All of the following coaches were once thought to be this magical unicorn: G Williams, M Mularkey, D Jauron, P Fewell, C Gailey, D Marrone, R Ryan. Heh... why not roll the dice again?

Joel Collier, Johnny Rauch, Harvey Johnson, Jim Ringo, Kay Stephenson, Hank Bullough. Joel Collier, a defensive master mind followed by John Rauch an offensive genius, wanted to use OJ as a decoy and receiver - he lasted two years,

7 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I read the thread title, and knew it was yet another fire the head coach thread, man that dead horse is taking a beating, 

Wait until they throw the first incomplete pass, dont win by forty points or more or ....... lose a game!

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6 hours ago, stuvian said:

you need a license for stat fishing out of season. Try doing your homework!

 

Belichick won his first Superbowl in his 7th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/BeliBi0.htm

 

Bill Cowher won his first Superbowl in his 14th year as Steelers head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CowhBi0.htm

 

Tom Coughlin won his first Superbowl in his 7th year with the Giants and 11th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/CougTo0.htm

 

Tom Landry didn't win a Superbowl until his 12th year as Cowboys head Coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/LandTo0.htm

 

Tony Dungy didn't win a Superbowl until his 11th year as head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/DungTo0.htm

 

John Madden won a Superbowl in his 8th year as Raiders head coach!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/MaddJo0.htm

 

It's called The internet!

 

Good thing they didn't have to deal with the TBD Fire Everybody gang! Awesome post!!!

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