Kickoff Strategy

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, Gugny said:

If a team is up by three with, say, 13 seconds left in the 4th quarter … are they allowed to squib kick it?

 

squib kick it into the endzone...if the team takes a TB they only get it at the 20.

[MrEpsYtown]

51 minutes ago, unbillievable said:

No one is going to risk a possible long return for 3 yds advantage.

 

The only thing we can hope for, is that some kickers can't make it to the endzone.

 

Honestly, McDermott probably will. That is the kind of thought process he typically has when it comes to special teams. This is not a bash McD thing, I'm just saying they will probably do something really dumb with the kickoffs. 

[LabattBlue]

Just get rid of the kickoffs, unless you want to onside kick near the end of the game.  This new rule only made kickoffs more useless. 

[stevewin]

Honestly - my hot take is I wouldn't care if kickoffs were just eliminated and the team just always got the ball at the 25.

 

 

[Fleezoid]

I wouldn't kick to the endzone. I didn't watch a lot of preseason games, but most of the kick returns I saw were stopped at the 26 or 27 yard line. 

 

I also heard an interesting take on the returners suggesting using slightly bigger running backs instead of the small speedy guys. Once they hit the 20, there's more congestion where they'll need to break tackles more often rather than looking for that sweet seam. 

[Dan]

38 minutes ago, stevewin said:

Honestly - my hot take is I wouldn't care if kickoffs were just eliminated and the team just always got the ball at the 25.

 

 

You lose too many commercials without a break before the kickoff, then one after the kickoff.   

[MJS]

2 hours ago, unbillievable said:

 

Preseason has shown that they're already conceding the 25yd line.

The timing and need to maintain your coverage lanes doesn't allow much collapse or pursuit to the ball. The returner basically hits a wall of tacklers at the 25.

I'm wondering if there are teams that will allow their Returner to take it out of the endzone.

5 yards might not seem like a lot, but average drive position is the highest predictor of points scored, so it really means a lot. Plus, return teams are pretty likely to get called for holding a good chunk of the time, which pushes them back 10 yards.

 

I think good teams are going to find advantages on both sides of this new rule rather than just kicking it through the end zone every drive.

[Big Turk]

21 minutes ago, MJS said:

5 yards might not seem like a lot, but average drive position is the highest predictor of points scored, so it really means a lot. Plus, return teams are pretty likely to get called for holding a good chunk of the time, which pushes them back 10 yards.

 

I think good teams are going to find advantages on both sides of this new rule rather than just kicking it through the end zone every drive.

 

That's true but the difference between the 25 and 30 is likely very small.

[MJS]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

That's true but the difference between the 25 and 30 is likely very small.

Sure, but return teams also get called for holding a third of the time. There is also the risk of muffs and fumbles. Factoring all that in makes it seem riskier for the return team versus the kicking team.

[ALLinALLEN]

1 hour ago, Fleezoid said:

I wouldn't kick to the endzone. I didn't watch a lot of preseason games, but most of the kick returns I saw were stopped at the 26 or 27 yard line. 

 

I also heard an interesting take on the returners suggesting using slightly bigger running backs instead of the small speedy guys. Once they hit the 20, there's more congestion where they'll need to break tackles more often rather than looking for that sweet seam. 

They said on the broadcast the AVG. starting line in preseason (of all kicks being returned) was the 28 yard line. That's a 2 yard difference than just ensuring a 30 yard line start by kicking it out of bounds. I would gladly trade 2-3 yards than a potential td being ran back by kicking it short. 

[Fan in San Diego]

This new kickoff rule might work if they bring the ball out to the 40 on a touchback. As it stands, everyone is going to boot it out of the endzone. Nothing to gain, everything to lose.

 

[The Frankish Reich]

3 minutes ago, Fan in San Diego said:

This new kickoff rule might work if they bring the ball out to the 40 on a touchback. As it stands, everyone is going to boot it out of the endzone. Nothing to gain, everything to lose.

 

I think that was the fatal flaw. The 40 or even the 35 on a touchback would encourage kicking for returns.

As it stands, they may have managed to take a boring play and make it even more boring.

[Fleezoid]

25 minutes ago, ALLinALLEN said:

They said on the broadcast the AVG. starting line in preseason (of all kicks being returned) was the 28 yard line. That's a 2 yard difference than just ensuring a 30 yard line start by kicking it out of bounds. I would gladly trade 2-3 yards than a potential td being ran back by kicking it short. 

 

Fair point. But you'll also lose the potential for a muff or fumble for a turnover. Very rare, but when they happen, possible game changers. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Kick it out of the endzone. 

Who would you rather decide who wins the game? Josh Allen and the defense or guys 48-53 on the roster?

[sven233]

I had a feeling this was going to happen when the announced the rules.  The 30 yard line is not penalty enough for kicking it out of the end zone.  However, if the moved it to the 35, or even the 40, I think you would see most of the kicks in play.  I think teams would be a lot more hesitant giving up the 35-40 against an Allen or Mahomes (or any other elite QBs) given the fact they would only have to go 30-40 yards to get points.

 

Coaches are conservative by nature and anything they can do to control a potentially bad outcome, they are going to do.  But man......having to give up the 40 would make these coaches reevaluate that decision, though.  The 30?  It was never going to be enough.

[PetermansRedemption]

5 hours ago, stevewin said:

Honestly - my hot take is I wouldn't care if kickoffs were just eliminated and the team just always got the ball at the 25.

 

 

This tremendously speeds up the game as well. However, as another posted mentioned, that’s not exactly what the NFL wants since they want to squeeze every second of commercial time into the product that they can. 

[billsfan89]

7 hours ago, MJS said:

I don't think it is wise to just concede the 30, personally. But we'll see how it goes.

 

The data in the pre-season showed that the average kick was returned to the 28.5 yardline. So if you do a touchback you are only conceding 1.5 yards but completely eliminating the chance of a big kick return. I think the NFL is going to have to tweak it to touchbacks at the 35 so that now conceding 7.5 yards is a bigger deal 

[Process]

10 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The data in the pre-season showed that the average kick was returned to the 28.5 yardline. So if you do a touchback you are only conceding 1.5 yards but completely eliminating the chance of a big kick return. I think the NFL is going to have to tweak it to touchbacks at the 35 so that now conceding 7.5 yards is a bigger deal 

What about moving players closer to the landing zone so the returner will get tackled sooner, on average? I just think the 35 is too much for a touchback.

[RyanC883]

6 hours ago, Gugny said:

If a team is up by three with, say, 13 seconds left in the 4th quarter … are they allowed to squib kick it?

 

.  no team would blow that type of lead.  

6 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Honestly, McDermott probably will. That is the kind of thought process he typically has when it comes to special teams. This is not a bash McD thing, I'm just saying they will probably do something really dumb with the kickoffs. 

 

and do that dumb think at an inopportune time

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

19 hours ago, Gugny said:

If a team is up by three with, say, 13 seconds left in the 4th quarter … are they allowed to squib kick it?

 

Who cares. They can do whatever they want. Team would obviously win either way in that scenario.