The chatter around the Worthy trade isn't rational

[Billl]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

Drafting players is a crap shoot.  Something like only about half of first rounders become good/great NFLers.  

 

Trading down is not a lose-lose situation if the team gets the player they wanted plus an extra pick, even a very low one.  The more picks a team has, the more likely they find somebody to contribute to the team.

 

Trading up is much more likely to be a losing proposition.  In 2018, the Jests traded 3 second round picks to Indy to move from #6 to #3 to draft Sam Darnold.   The Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 (after trading up, too).  In 2021, the Niners traded their #12 pick plus their next 2 first rounders to the Dolphins take Trey Lance at #3.  The Fins turned around and traded with Philly to move up to #6 to take Tua.  In 2022, the Niners drafted Brock Purdy at #262.    

 

As I said, the draft is a crap shoot ... but teams usually don't really know if they've actually won or lost until two or three years down the line.

If you ever hear your GM describe the draft as a crap shoot, you should hand him a cardboard box and tell him to clean out his desk.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 9/6/2024 at 10:50 AM, Success said:

It's actually insane - here & nationally.  

 

He had 2 big plays yesterday.  The 1st TD was some of the best blocking I've seen in awhile, and reflective of how good Reid is.  Most fast receivers get that TD.  The 2nd TD was a completely blown coverage, and pretty much ANY WR would have gotten a TD on.

 

He's incredibly fast - but we knew that before the draft.  The internet went crazy last night blaming the Bills and Beane - as though we didn't expect the guy to make some plays in one of the best offenses, with one of the best QB's and best offensive minds in the game?

 

But that's beside the point.  In all likelihood, KC would have gotten Worthy by standing pat in that draft.  Instead, we traded - and not only got Coleman, but Bishop as well.  People keep saying that if Worthy outperforms Coleman, it will look terrible for the Bills....but what if Bishop turns into a top safety?

 

It's almost like it's in the national psyche that KC always bests the Bills.  That will probably turn out to be a good trade for both teams, but the hot take reaction was so over the top anti-Bills.  

Agreed. It wasn’t anything spectacular, but he followed his blocking correctly and caught a wide open pass which sometimes isn’t easy (ask Stevie Johnson.) He does look every bit as fast as he was hyped up to be and I won’t lie when I say I’m a bit jealous of Worthy and Araiza both. 

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

 

Who the hell cares what social and broadcast media mavens or fans say????   Beane's job is to build the best team he can, not pander to the media and/or to fans who think they have a better handle on team needs and draft picks' quality than the professionals who do evaluations for their livings.

 

 

Trading down in the draft is in no way comparable to trading a star veteran player to a divisional rival.   Apples to pineapples.

 

 

Why do you assume that Worthy is more likely to become a star than Coleman?   It's entirely possible that Coleman becomes a solid NFL wide receiver while Worthy never becomes more than a gadget guy simply because Worthy's really under-sized -- and that is very limiting, both in terms of how he can be used and likely in longevity.  Coleman isn't real fast but if he can develop into a sure-handed route-runner who can block pretty well, he can have a long, productive NFL career. 

 

 

This is just silly. Drafting players is a crap shoot.  Something like only about half of first rounders become good/great NFLers.  

 

Trading down is not a lose-lose situation if the team gets the player they wanted plus an extra pick, even a very low one.  The more picks a team has, the more likely they find somebody to contribute to the team.

 

Trading up is much more likely to be a losing proposition.  In 2018, the Jests traded 3 second round picks to Indy to move from #6 to #3 to draft Sam Darnold.   The Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 (after trading up, too).  In 2021, the Niners traded their #12 pick plus their next 2 first rounders to the Dolphins take Trey Lance at #3.  The Fins turned around and traded with Philly to move up to #6 to take Tua.  In 2022, the Niners drafted Brock Purdy at #262.    

 

As I said, the draft is a crap shoot ... but teams usually don't really know if they've actually won or lost until two or three years down the line.

 

 

Other then QB do the jets and dolphins have better rosters particularly at WR then the Bills you and I both know the answer 

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

I think the reasons to not do so with certain teams remain the same, personally.

 

Would you have traded Diggs to the Chiefs for a second round pick? 
 

I don’t think I would.

 

You are missing the point.  Diggs is already a proven NFL player.  Trading him to a conference rival wouldn't make sense.   Trading a draft pick to KC is something else because no draft pick comes with a guarantee that that whomever they pick will turn into a decent NFL players much less a player of Diggs' caliber. 

[SoTier]

18 minutes ago, Billl said:

If you ever hear your GM describe the draft as a crap shoot, you should hand him a cardboard box and tell him to clean out his desk.

 

In 2018, five QBs were taken in the first round, 2 before and 2 after Josh Allen at #7, one of the top 2 QBs in the NFL.  #1 Baker Mayfield has been a serviceable NFL QB, slightly better than average.   #3  Sam Darnold was a bust.  #10 Josh Rosen was also a bust.  #32 LaMar Jackson has been the second-best QB in that draft, and one of the best QBs in the league.

The 2021 draft also featured 5 first round QBs, all busts except for Trevor Lawrence, and he has yet to prove he's more than a competent NFL QB.

 

[PetermansRedemption]

9 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

In 2018, five QBs were taken in the first round, 2 before and 2 after Josh Allen at #7, one of the top 2 QBs in the NFL.  #1 Baker Mayfield has been a serviceable NFL QB, slightly better than average.   #3  Sam Darnold was a bust.  #10 Josh Rosen was also a bust.  #32 LaMar Jackson has been the second-best QB in that draft, and one of the best QBs in the league.

The 2021 draft also featured 5 first round QBs, all busts except for Trevor Lawrence, and he has yet to prove he's more than a competent NFL QB.

 

Was about to post exactly this. Even with all the big money scouting departments, you are just as well off if you were to throw darts at a dartboard. 

Edited September 7 by PetermansRedemption

[RoscoeParrish]

23 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

You are missing the point.  Diggs is already a proven NFL player.  Trading him to a conference rival wouldn't make sense.   Trading a draft pick to KC is something else because no draft pick comes with a guarantee that that whomever they pick will turn into a decent NFL players much less a player of Diggs' caliber. 

The reason to not trade Diggs to a rival team like the Chiefs is because you don’t want the Chiefs to get a player they want to possibly win more football games, potentially at your expense.

 

The same reason to not trade a draft pick to let the Chiefs pick a player they want is because you don’t want the Chiefs to get a player they want to possibly win more football games, potentially at your expense.

 

Both scenarios end up with a conference rival ending up with a player they want and can potentially beat you with. 
 

I agree that a proven player is a different caliber of discussion entirely compared to a draft pick. And so I think a decision to trade back with them is much more defensible position than to trade them a disgruntled star. But I think the argument to NOT trade with them, specifically because of what they are and what they have represented in the AFC for the last 5 years, is also valid. I don’t think it means Beane is “playing scared.” 
 

Jmo

Edited September 7 by RoscoeParrish

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

 

 

Who the hell cares what social and broadcast media mavens or fans say????

 

 

OP does...you know, the one I and everyone else is responding to

[Rocky Landing]

10 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

 

Did he also have a rushing play?

That was the gadget play I was referring to. 

[SoTier]

16 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Other then QB do the jets and dolphins have better rosters particularly at WR then the Bills you and I both know the answer 

 

You know what you think, but you don't know what I think.   I think that the Bills not only have a better QB, they also have a better OL than either rival.    Jets are banking on old, oft-injured OLers to protect an old QB.  Miami invested in WR Beckham rather than in better OLers.  Poor OL play gives the Bills a small edge at RB. Miami has great WRs but a crappy OL.  Aside from Wilson, the Jets have the oft-injured Mike Evans who played 3 games last season, a past-his-prime Lazzard, and a bunch of rookies and never-weres.  The Bills also have better TEs.  

 

The Bills have a better DL than Miami, and they're even with the Jets.  The Jets probably have a better secondary but we don't know how good the Bills secondary will be because they've been nagged by injuries during the preseason.  The LBs are pretty even.

 

 

[Billsfanatic8989]

Fair or not, two franchise altering decisions were made:

 

1. Not drafting Mahomes. It was idiotic at the time. Not hindsight. We had no QB at the time. 

 

2. Getting a worthless late first rounder while simultaneously turning the Chiefs into a dynasty. 

 

We unintentionally cost ourselves a few SB trips because of one move.

 

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Fair or not, two franchise altering decisions were made:

 

1. Not drafting Mahomes. It was idiotic at the time. Not hindsight. We had no QB at the time. 

 

2. Getting a worthless late first rounder while simultaneously turning the Chiefs into a dynasty. 

 

We unintentionally cost ourselves a few SB trips because of one move.

 

 

 

He wasn’t even close to a sure thing. Many preferred Watson. No Andy Reid here either, so who knows how things would have gone ? 

[Success]

19 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

Fair or not, two franchise altering decisions were made:

 

1. Not drafting Mahomes. It was idiotic at the time. Not hindsight. We had no QB at the time. 

 

2. Getting a worthless late first rounder while simultaneously turning the Chiefs into a dynasty. 

 

We unintentionally cost ourselves a few SB trips because of one move.

 

 

 

 

History always gets rewritten.

 

Had we picked Mahomes, this board would have gone crazy. And not in a good way.

 

[Billsfanatic8989]

1 minute ago, Success said:

 

History always gets rewritten.

 

Had we picked Mahomes, this board would have gone crazy. And not in a good way.

 

And we have a few SB wins right about now. So...

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Success said:

 

History always gets rewritten.

 

Had we picked Mahomes, this board would have gone crazy. And not in a good way.

 

I agree. I still wouldn’t have traded with KC or anyone in conference , but that’s just my preference. Pure superstition. 

[Billsfanatic8989]

3 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

He wasn’t even close to a sure thing. Many preferred Watson. No Andy Reid here either, so who knows how things would have gone ? 

I think he's still an elite QB who makes players better around him. 

 

But the point is, I could live with not getting him. But it stings we handed him over to KC.

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

I agree. I still wouldn’t have traded with KC or anyone in conference , but that’s just my preference. Pure superstition. 

Exactly. 

 

You never trade like that in conference. If it was an NFC team...go for it.

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

And we have a few SB wins right about now. So...

 

 

That’s far from guaranteed. It just doesn’t work that way. 

[Billl]

56 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

In 2018, five QBs were taken in the first round, 2 before and 2 after Josh Allen at #7, one of the top 2 QBs in the NFL.  #1 Baker Mayfield has been a serviceable NFL QB, slightly better than average.   #3  Sam Darnold was a bust.  #10 Josh Rosen was also a bust.  #32 LaMar Jackson has been the second-best QB in that draft, and one of the best QBs in the league.

The 2021 draft also featured 5 first round QBs, all busts except for Trevor Lawrence, and he has yet to prove he's more than a competent NFL QB.

 

What happened to the GMs who drafted Baker, Rosen, and Darnold?

[Success]

5 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

And we have a few SB wins right about now. So...

 

 

 

No we wouldn't. Mahomes isn't better than Allen.

 

[Nelius]

Not sure if this was mentioned, but outside of the Worthy worship...Kelce went 3-34

 

I'm actually fine with an undersized and potentially fragile Worthy becoming a new gadget extraordinaire if it helps usher Kelce into the abyss. All of the backwards hats in the world can't change that he's 34, the inevitable downfall must start sometime soon