The chatter around the Worthy trade isn't rational

[balln]

5 hours ago, Thrivefourfive said:

24 hours after that I’ve reached a higher level of frustration. 
 

The Chiefs turn everything to gold and the Bills are too dumb to spot top end talent AND COACHES.

 

Andy does the offense, 3x champ

Spagnuolo does the defense, 4x champ

 

Them, Mahomes, that tight end who helped ruin TV chiefs, Jones, Hill, Rice, Worthy, McDuffie… Araiza … I’m done. 
 

The Bills started this era at the same time as them, abouts. Mahomes threw 50 touchdowns when Josh was a rookie. It was over before it ever began. The frustration is because the gap is growing wider. Like Bill Elliott Daytona 500 pulling away. 

Last year was the year to beat chiefs. Had them at home. Def the weakest they’ve been on offense. Now they have holywood and worthy to stretch the field and let Kelce and rice eat underneath 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

10 hours ago, Rocky Landing said:

I watched GMF this morning, and all those guys were slobbering over Worthy as if he were Taylor Swift running around in a bikini out there. You'd think he had caught ten passes. He caught two, on three targets.

 

Everyone needs to pump the brakes on this guy. Yeah, he's crazy fast-- but if he runs that gadget play every week, he will get mashed. Tyreek Hill, he ain't.

 

Did he also have a rushing play?

[dgrochester55]

The running play was well executed by the Chiefs and any running back or receiver in the league could have scored on that. The catch was more impressive, but even that was blown coverage on the Ravens part. Still a great start by Worthy, but people need to relax. Not only is it just week 1, but Coleman hasn't even played his game yet. What if he gets 7 catch 100+ yard and two touchdowns? You never know.

 

Lets give it at least a full season before we analyze whether or not it was a good move.

 

 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

Here's where I'm at with the Worthy pick trade. Full disclosure: I wanted them to draft him. So if the Bills stay at their original pick and draft Coleman and the Chiefs still get Worthy I'm probably not happy either.

 

I'd much rather they have some conviction and pick their guy. 

     1) It removes any doubt about who they wanted. If anything, trading down signals the guy they really wanted was already gone, not that it was Coleman.

     2)The compensation was weak. Equivalent to a 6th rd pick. Cheapest 1st round trade up in years.

     3) Guarantee KC gets their guy. I don't care what you say there's no way anyone knows if Worthy would have fallen to them or they could strike a deal with another team.

     4) You're giving up the slight advantage you had over other contenders by letting them pick before you. And again, no way to know if Coleman would still be there.

 

 

[balln]

Just now, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

Here's where I'm at with the Worthy pick trade. Full disclosure: I wanted them to draft him. So if the Bills stay at their original pick and draft Coleman and the Chiefs still get Worthy I'm probably not happy either.

 

I'd much rather they have some conviction and pick their guy. 

     1) It removes any doubt about who they wanted. If anything, trading down signals the guy they really wanted was already gone, not that it was Coleman.

     2)The compensation was weak. Equivalent to a 6th rd pick. Cheapest 1st round trade up in years.

     3) Guarantee KC gets their guy. I don't care what you say there's no way anyone knows if Worthy would have fallen to them or they could strike a deal with another team.

     4) You're giving up the slight advantage you had over other contenders by letting them pick before you. And again, no way to know if Coleman would still be there.

 

 

Beane got fleeced. And just tells you. COLEMAN wasn’t their guy. They didn’t love any of the remaining WRs. It’s just that simple. Plus post pick interviews. You could tell beane was just playing the board 

[Maine-iac]

In 2019 Sammy Watkins opened up the season for the Chiefs with 200 yards and 3 TDs and proceeded to finish with under 700 yards and didn't have another regular season TD that year.  Lets not get too excited about one game.  Not saying Worthy will not be good but I'm not that impressed yet.

Edited September 7 by Maine-iac

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

7 minutes ago, dgrochester55 said:

The running play was well executed by the Chiefs and any running back or receiver in the league could have scored on that. The catch was more impressive, but even that was blown coverage on the Ravens part. Still a great start by Worthy, but people need to relax. Not only is it just week 1, but Coleman hasn't even played his game yet. What if he gets 7 catch 100+ yard and two touchdowns? You never know.

 

Lets give it at least a full season before we analyze whether or not it was a good move.

 

 

 

If Coleman gets 7 for 100 and 2TD then I'm upset we didn't just take him at our original pick. The trade down is a lose-lose. Why risk losing out on Coleman AND guarantee KC gets who they want?

 

edit: unless the compensation is significant. Which it was = 6th round pick

Edited September 7 by Rock-A-Bye Beasley

[Coach Tuesday]

This thread will hit 100 pages in 10 minutes when Keon gets listed as inactive tomorrow…😭

 

Relax I’m kidding relax.  Maybe.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Not wading through 15 pages of posts. 

 

What this comes down to is evaluation. Way too early to grade the evaluation on either side. As long as Coleman hits as a elite player then Beane can't lose. I don' care about the actual trade. But if Worthy is a plus player for the Chiefs and Coleman never becomes one for the Bills, then that is a big fail by Beane and another failed evaluation. 

[uticaclub]

If the KC calls you hang up the phone

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

But the initial view of it was that the Bills directly gave the Chiefs a weapon in the fastest WR ever ... So the first piece of real evidence supports the view that it was a bad move for the Bills to have done that.

 

No, it really doesn't support that view. Because scoring a TD on a miscommunication/blown coverage has nothing to do with being the fastest person in combine history. Now on the first TD of course his speed was a factor. But you don't draft WRs in the 1st round to score on well blocked reverses. You draft them there to consistently win against coverage and produce at a high level. Many fast WRs throughout the league would have scored there too. It is still a great play, the elite speed showed up, but it gives us no new information to evaluate whether the player is a 1st round talent or not.

 

To make this point obvious, imagine if for the rest of Worthy's career he produces almost exclusively on reverses and blown coverages. Think the Chiefs or anyone will give him a huge extension? Obviously not. In that scenario his career ceiling is Mecole Hardman.

[strive_for_five_guy]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No, it really doesn't support that view. Because scoring a TD on a miscommunication/blown coverage has nothing to do with being the fastest person in combine history. Now on the first TD of course his speed was a factor. But you don't draft WRs in the 1st round to score on well blocked reverses. You draft them there to consistently win against coverage and produce at a high level. Many fast WRs throughout the league would have scored there too. It is still a great play, the elite speed showed up, but it gives us no new information to evaluate whether the player is a 1st round talent or not.

 

To make this point obvious, imagine if for the rest of Worthy's career he produces almost exclusively on reverses and blown coverages. Think the Chiefs or anyone will give him a huge extension? Obviously not. In that scenario his career ceiling is Mecole Hardman.

If he gets two TDs a game for the rest of his career on only reverses and blown coverages, Worthy will get paid handsomely.  

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, balln said:

Beane got fleeced. And just tells you. COLEMAN wasn’t their guy. They didn’t love any of the remaining WRs. It’s just that simple. Plus post pick interviews. You could tell beane was just playing the board 

 

Well yeah it's plainly obvious that Beane had no 1st round grades left when our pick came up. Or else he would have made a pick. But I don't know why some are using this point as a gotcha? The widespread belief of draftniks was that after Brian Thomas the rest of the WRs were borderline 1st/2nd round talents at best. Beane didn't go off the reservation when he intentionally made his way into the 2nd round before making his pick. His evaluation was the consensus evaluation. The Chiefs on the other hand obviously graded Worthy as a true 1st round talent. If Beane misevaluated he'll be judged for it but we won't know that answer for a while.

 

3 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

If he gets two TDs a game for the rest of his career on only reverses and blown coverages, Worthy will get paid handsomely.  

 

Okay. I'll predict that this doesn't happen.

 

Edited September 7 by HappyDays

[strive_for_five_guy]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Okay. I'll predict that this doesn't happen.

 

Right, but it also seems like you’re trying to downplay what has happened.  There’s a reason the knee jerk reaction to the Bills trading a pick to the SB champs so that they could draft the fastest WR ever and someone they clearly had a 1st round grade on was disbelief.  And the first piece of actual game evidence is so far supporting that reaction.

[Billl]

49 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No, it really doesn't support that view. Because scoring a TD on a miscommunication/blown coverage has nothing to do with being the fastest person in combine history. Now on the first TD of course his speed was a factor. But you don't draft WRs in the 1st round to score on well blocked reverses. You draft them there to consistently win against coverage and produce at a high level. Many fast WRs throughout the league would have scored there too. It is still a great play, the elite speed showed up, but it gives us no new information to evaluate whether the player is a 1st round talent or not.

 

To make this point obvious, imagine if for the rest of Worthy's career he produces almost exclusively on reverses and blown coverages. Think the Chiefs or anyone will give him a huge extension? Obviously not. In that scenario his career ceiling is Mecole Hardman.

What it does do is bring his name to the forefront of the conversation when opposing defenses are game-planning for Kansas City.  That alone has value.  Ever since Tyreek left, the strategy had been “don’t let Kelce beat you”.  Coming into this season, it was “don’t let Kelce or Rice beat you”.  That becomes a lot more complicated now that the conversation starts with “don’t let Worthy get loose”.

 

No, that doesn’t make him Amon-Ra after one game.  He hasn’t shown anything to indicate that he’s ready to be the focal point of the offense who is going to see 10 targets a game, but we’re talking about a guy who was 20 years old when he was drafted and was playing his first career game against maybe the best defense in the NFL.  

 

As much as some want to call it inflated numbers, 2 catches on 3 targets for 47 yards and a TD and 1 rush for 21 yards and a TD is a monster debut.  It was enough for Vegas to move his ROY odds from 25:1 to 12:1 overnight.  FWIW, Coleman is 35:1. If we wake up Monday morning and he’s down to 12:1, it means Coleman had one hell of a game.

[chongli]

Counting the days until Worthy has an injury and misses time, Fact is, Coleman was the better choice for our offense.

Edited September 8 by chongli

[SoTier]

On 9/6/2024 at 1:13 PM, GoBills808 said:

im not making sweeping judgements

 

im saying (and said at the time) that trading that pick to the Chiefs, who used and obviously did have a first round grade on another wideout, was going to be looked at very unfavorably considering we drafted and very obviously needed the same position

 

21 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Not just here the entire national media today is trashing Beane for the trade the Bills don’t really get a lot of positive press nationally anymore. 

 

Who the hell cares what social and broadcast media mavens or fans say????   Beane's job is to build the best team he can, not pander to the media and/or to fans who think they have a better handle on team needs and draft picks' quality than the professionals who do evaluations for their livings.

 

On 9/6/2024 at 1:19 PM, RoscoeParrish said:

To draw a comparison, here’s a hypothetical.

 

Let’s say the Bengals tag Higgins again and try to trade him next offseason. The Ravens make an offer of a second round pick and give Tee all of his contract demands.

 

There’s a school of thought that the Bengals should take that deal as a no-brainer, they are gonna lose Higgins regardless and the second round pick is higher than any comp pick they could get with him signing with the Falcons or whoever.
 

The other school of thought is that through the action of trading a player to a division rival, he can actively participate in your season’s demise, whether it’s missing the playoffs or losing in the playoffs. 
 

Is it a no-brainer to trade Higgins to the Ravens? I think the asset difference makes it very tempting.

 

Is it playing scared to be worried about outcome number 2? I do not think so.

 

Trading down in the draft is in no way comparable to trading a star veteran player to a divisional rival.   Apples to pineapples.

 

21 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

You’re rationalizing the story badly. If Worthy turns into a star and Coleman does not, Beane is an idiot. No ifs, no buts, no coconuts….

And Beane is the most overated GM the Bills have ever had.bHis drafts from Edmunds - 2022 get about a C grade…. That’s it.

His FA moves are in the realm of crazy. The Diggs trade, The Diggs contract and especially the Diggs second contract….Ooof!

Paying Von like he is at the peak of his career and for so long, just nuts. Why did he give Star and Knox so much money?! WTF is he doing? He is doing it again with Dawkins and TJ….Negotiate Beane! It is like he thinks making players the highest paid is a good thing. I’m afraid to see what we paid Brown, he is not a top notch RT….

we don’t beat KC in the playoffs because their team is better than ours with the exception of the boneheaded :13 sec move and the injury to Tre White….

If the 2023 and 2024 don’t really impress this year, I’m gonna puke, because that means it’s all over….. 

Were never gonna beat them because they have much better decision makers….

 

Why do you assume that Worthy is more likely to become a star than Coleman?   It's entirely possible that Coleman becomes a solid NFL wide receiver while Worthy never becomes more than a gadget guy simply because Worthy's really under-sized -- and that is very limiting, both in terms of how he can be used and likely in longevity.  Coleman isn't real fast but if he can develop into a sure-handed route-runner who can block pretty well, he can have a long, productive NFL career. 

 

8 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

 

If Coleman gets 7 for 100 and 2TD then I'm upset we didn't just take him at our original pick. The trade down is a lose-lose. Why risk losing out on Coleman AND guarantee KC gets who they want?

 

edit: unless the compensation is significant. Which it was = 6th round pick

 

This is just silly. Drafting players is a crap shoot.  Something like only about half of first rounders become good/great NFLers.  

 

Trading down is not a lose-lose situation if the team gets the player they wanted plus an extra pick, even a very low one.  The more picks a team has, the more likely they find somebody to contribute to the team.

 

Trading up is much more likely to be a losing proposition.  In 2018, the Jests traded 3 second round picks to Indy to move from #6 to #3 to draft Sam Darnold.   The Bills drafted Josh Allen at #7 (after trading up, too).  In 2021, the Niners traded their #12 pick plus their next 2 first rounders to the Dolphins take Trey Lance at #3.  The Fins turned around and traded with Philly to move up to #6 to take Tua.  In 2022, the Niners drafted Brock Purdy at #262.    

 

As I said, the draft is a crap shoot ... but teams usually don't really know if they've actually won or lost until two or three years down the line.

 

 

Edited September 7 by SoTier

[RoscoeParrish]

23 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Trading down in the draft is in no way comparable to trading a star veteran player to a divisional rival.   Apples to pineapples.

I think the reasons to not do so with certain teams remain the same, personally.

 

Would you have traded Diggs to the Chiefs for a second round pick? 
 

I don’t think I would.

[Mikie2times]

21 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I thought Mahomes threw a bad pass tbh. Should’ve led him towards the pylon. 

In that spot, QB scrambling, it's not expected to hit the mark. It's a jump ball and Worthy would have no shot. 

[90sBills]

43 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

In that spot, QB scrambling, it's not expected to hit the mark. It's a jump ball and Worthy would have no shot. 

A big of makes Mahomes great is his accuracy while scrambling. I’m sure he’d love another shot with that pass. He was off by his standards.