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Joe Marino: 1/4 of Bills 2024 salary cap is dead cap!


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4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Rashee Rice had more catches, yards and TD’s as a rookie than Shakir has in his career. I don’t think it’s really comparable tbh. Shakir came on last season, but he’s gotta produce to show he’s as good or better than Rice. 

It's a small sample size for both players.  For the first time in his career, Shakir is going to be the no. 1 or 2 option in the Bills' passing game this year.  I would not give the edge to either player.

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3 minutes ago, mannc said:

It's a small sample size for both players.  For the first time in his career, Shakir is going to be the no. 1 or 2 option in the Bills' passing game this year.  I would not give the edge to either player.

Fair enough.

 

I just feel like that's a little biased.  If Coleman drops 79, 938 and 7 TD's in a larger role in 24 and Worthy has 39 catches 611 yards and 2 TD's, I don't think anyone on TBD is gonna say, "neither player has an edge" lol.

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17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Fair enough.

 

I just feel like that's a little biased.  If Coleman drops 79, 938 and 7 TD's in a larger role in 24 and Worthy has 39 catches 611 yards and 2 TD's, I don't think anyone on TBD is gonna say, "neither player has an edge" lol.

Context matters.  When he was one of the Bills' first options (after Diggs checked out) Shakir put up numbers that were at least as good as Rice's.  As I said, small sample size for both players, but I would expect them to put up comparable numbers this year.  

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14 minutes ago, mannc said:

Context matters.  When he was one of the Bills' first options (after Diggs checked out) Shakir put up numbers that were at least as good as Rice's.  As I said, small sample size for both players, but I would expect them to put up comparable numbers this year.  

When was that? I want to compare that stretch with Rice.

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4 hours ago, Mc1320 said:

Extending Diggs was a huge mistake and Beane rolled the dice that Miller would stay health and he crapped out on that one.

 

Cut Miller after this year and take the final cap hit before entering new stadium.

 

 

Better yet, watch what happens during this year, and then make those decisions when you have a ton more info than you do now.

 

I don't think extending Diggs was a big mistake. More like a reasonable risk that didn't work out. Looking back, you sure wouldn't do it again, but at the time, if Diggs had gotten motivated, which easily might have happened if Dorsey had worked out better, because he was going to continue to get Diggs open and keep him happy, it probably would have worked out very well.

 

Sometimes reasonable risks don't work out. IMO this was one of those.

 

The Miller move I might not have made, as older guys do tend to get injured at higher rates. But if he hadn't gotten injured, my guess is there's a Lombardi trophy in the case at OBD right now.

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5 minutes ago, mannc said:

Last half of the season

Okay so let's pick week 8 for both. It was Shakir's highest targeted game.

 

Week 8 - Week 18 for both

 

10 games - Shakir 3.1 catches per game, 53.6 YPG, 0.1 TDPG - prorated over 17 games 52.7 catches for 911 yards and 1.7 TD's

9 games (rested week 18) - Rice 5.8 catches per game, 70 YPG, 0.4 TDPG - prorated over 17 games 98.6 catches for 1190 yards and 6.8 TD's

 

Yeah, I don't see it, jmo.

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10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Okay so let's pick week 8 for both. It was Shakir's highest targeted game.

 

Week 8 - Week 18 for both

 

10 games - Shakir 3.1 catches per game, 53.6 YPG, 0.1 TDPG - prorated over 17 games 52.7 catches for 911 yards and 1.7 TD's

9 games (rested week 18) - Rice 5.8 catches per game, 70 YPG, 0.4 TDPG - prorated over 17 games 98.6 catches for 1190 yards and 6.8 TD's

 

Yeah, I don't see it, jmo.

 

 

 

 

Rice 68 targets from Week 8 - 18.

 

Shakir 36 targets over the same time.

 

IMO it wasn't because Shakir wasn't getting open as much, though we may see.

 

 

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10 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

The league average is $34.4 million dead cap per team.

 

With $63.6 million in dead cap, the Bills have the 3rd highest in the league, just below the Broncos ($76.4 million) and Vikings ($65.3 million).

 

Our biggest AFC rivals have the following in dead cap:

 

- Chiefs: $11.2 million

- Ravens: $17.3 million

- Bengals: $7.3 million

- Dolphins: $42.5 million

- Jets: $53 million

- Texans: $33 million

 

So yeah, we're definitely in the worst shape, while the Chiefs & Bengals are doing the best in that regard (though I know Bengals don't like doing guaranteed money & are extremely cheap, so that may have something to do with them).

 

 

You are right about the Bengals, and they will start to feel the pain very shortly.

Last year the Bills had the second least amount of dead cap in the NFL, $10.1M.

 

Next time fans want to restructure players and add things like void years people should learn some math.

The vast majority of this year's dead money is Diggs and the old vets void years.

 

Miami already has $20M in dead money for next year and is looking at 30M over the cap even with their huge rollover this year.

 

Fans should not look at a one-year snapshot as to how cap management is being handled.

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4 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I agree, have to hit in the draft. That goes without saying. However, if they are going to spend money on free agents they need to hit on that as well. Need to stop paying top dollar for mid range guys. 

We just wasted 1.5 M on Collins for coming to TC.

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1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Rashee Rice had more catches, yards and TD’s as a rookie than Shakir has in his career. I don’t think it’s really comparable tbh. Shakir came on last season, but he’s gotta produce to show he’s as good or better than Rice. 

I'd argue the reason Rice performed better because he was a product of lack of talent around him as guys like Skyy Moore (same draft as Shakir), Kadarious Toney, Mecole Coleman and even MVS failed to step into prominent roles. Hence the Chiefs looking to add guys like Brown, Shuster and draft Worthy. 

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17 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Man, next offseason is gonna be exciting!

Maybe that was meant to be sarcastic, but I've been saying that about 2025 since March this year.  Call this a reset year or just hitting the pause button, either way, the main thing is for the Bills not to lose their winner's mentality, even if they don't win the division again or even have a losing record. The culture shift a few years ago, from perennial losers to kick-ass winners, was a small miracle, and I don't want to see the Bills slip out of that mode just because this is a somewhat down year.  

 

This year doesn't have to be a collapse, but it the injuries hit again we no longer have real NFL quality players as depth at all positions.  If no significant injuries, I think 10-7 is achievable.  A couple of injuries at DB or LB, and we'll be lucky to win 8.  

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Hindsight is always 20/20. But as far as the whole Diggs "thing" is concerned, I find it interesting that he ends up with this newly adjusted contract making him a Free Agent at the end of the season essentially. (Correct me if I am wrong on this...) So was his exit about differences between him and Josh? or the way he was/wasnt being used in the offense? Or was it more about MONEY? If so I'm fine with Beane moving on from Diggs...

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5 minutes ago, DefenseWins said:

Hindsight is always 20/20. But as far as the whole Diggs "thing" is concerned, I find it interesting that he ends up with this newly adjusted contract making him a Free Agent at the end of the season essentially. (Correct me if I am wrong on this...) So was his exit about differences between him and Josh? or the way he was/wasnt being used in the offense? Or was it more about MONEY? If so I'm fine with Beane moving on from Diggs...

My guess is that the Texans don't want to tie themselves long-term to an aging Diggs. They have a lot of young players to pay in the upcoming years on both sides of the ball. To them, Diggs is a one-year luxury signing that costs them nothing but some cash and a draft pick that wasn't theirs to begin with. From Diggs' standpoint, after this year he'll head up I45 to Dallas to play for his boyhood team with his brother. Everyone got what they wanted except for the Bills. 

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17 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I'm more than happy to have them eat that this year as long as they spend it on some serious upgrades next year to retool for the back half of Allen's career.

The only team with more dead cap is Denver and yet they just finish making Patrick Surtain the highest paid DB in the league. I'm tired of people saying we're handcuffed when other teams in the same boat continue to sign elite players. Josh needs help after the departure of Diggs and Davis and we counter with Samuel, Hollins, MVS and draft Coleman.  Yikes!... 

 

I'm keeping my expectations realistic in the hopes this group exceeds them but this is an uphill climb.

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4 hours ago, FireChans said:

I don’t know how you quantify markedly better but go position by position.

 

QB - Chiefs (this is a Brady/Manning discussion -- nearly a dead heat)

RB - Push? Maybe Bills (Bills and not really close -- Cook >> Pacheco)

WR - Chiefs (debatable since Chiefs don't really have a #1 either)

TE - Chiefs (yes but not by as much as in the past)

OL - Chiefs (classic example of Bills fans underrating their players...Bills OL is near the top also)

DL - Chiefs (Jones is a beast...but Bills are better across the board and depth)

LB - Push with Milano out at best (ok)

CB - McDuffie would be the best CB on the Bills but the Bills have better depth so push/slightly Bills

S - not sure how anyone is confident either side is good

K - Chiefs (agreed)

P - Push

 

By my eye, we have some position groups that are close, but imo, the talent gap between both teams hasn’t been wider since 2020.

 

See my comments above.  I don't consider the Chiefs to be markedly better than the Bills overall.

 

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55 minutes ago, eball said:

 

See my comments above.  I don't consider the Chiefs to be markedly better than the Bills overall.

 

Outside of injuries, I think you're way overrating depth and way underrating star power.  The playoff games have been super close so star power matters.

 

Chiefs won a game b/c their FG kicker is awesome.  Bills lost a game b/c our FG kicker sucks.  They have a huge strength, we have a huge liability.

 

Chiefs won last year b/c Christ Jones bumped Josh as he was about to throw a TD.  Bills have lost b/c we haven't had a true pass rusher in years (Von was THE missing piece until he got injured).  They have a strength, we have a liability.

 

As a receiver Kelce has remained a star and came up huge against the Bills each year (even though he was covered by guys that were retired a week earlier).  Diggs dropped has dropped multiple game changing balls right in his hands.  They have a strength, we have a liability.  Hopefully Dalton evens the equation!

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2 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

The only team with more dead cap is Denver and yet they just finish making Patrick Surtain the highest paid DB in the league. I'm tired of people saying we're handcuffed when other teams in the same boat continue to sign elite players. Josh needs help after the departure of Diggs and Davis and we counter with Samuel, Hollins, MVS and draft Coleman.  Yikes!... 

 

I'm keeping my expectations realistic in the hopes this group exceeds them but this is an uphill climb.

 

The comparison of dead money does not put these 2 teams "in the same boat".  Also, Surtain was under contract through next year.

His extension doesn't kick in until 2026.

 

If you compare the 2 teams' players contracts, I'm quite sure you'll go with the Bills roster over Denver.

How many wins do you think the Broncos will have this year?

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