How much better is Joe Brady?

[TBBills Fan]

On 9/4/2024 at 12:59 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

I confess to worries.   But our TE and RB groups are good.  Our OL is okay.  Our QB is exceptional.  Shakir and Samuel are legit starters though things in the WR room get a little questionable after that.  I'm praying Keon proves worthy of his almost-first-round draft status or Barefoot Mack shocks us.    

 

Still, overall, I think Brady has enough tools (it starts with Josh) that he can design a productive offense even with some of the roster shortcomings.   There have been encouraging anecdotal reports about better communication, scheme modifications, and so on.  But will Brady in fact emerge this year as a talented OC and playcaller?  I don't know.  Hopefull signs don't make for a confirmed reality.  We'll see.  

 

I'm approaching this season with a ton of anxious curiosity.  

 

 

 

Here's a possibility and hope, this you g WR group gets better week to week, and we see it.  It could happen and if it does, we will really enjoy this season 😜 

 

Kincaid, Coleman and Shakir, all have room to grow.  

 

Look at rice last year, came on as he spent time in the job. 

 

Our young guys, if they have that "bills dna" are certainly capable of putting out considerably better tape by year end

Edited yesterday at 12:16 AM by TBBills Fan

[3rdand12]

On 9/4/2024 at 12:59 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

I confess to worries.   But our TE and RB groups are good.  Our OL is okay.  Our QB is exceptional.  Shakir and Samuel are legit starters though things in the WR room get a little questionable after that.  I'm praying Keon proves worthy of his almost-first-round draft status or Barefoot Mack shocks us.    

 

Still, overall, I think Brady has enough tools (it starts with Josh) that he can design a productive offense even with some of the roster shortcomings.   There have been encouraging anecdotal reports about better communication, scheme modifications, and so on.  But will Brady in fact emerge this year as a talented OC and playcaller?  I don't know.  Hopefull signs don't make for a confirmed reality.  We'll see.  

 

I'm approaching this season with a ton of anxious curiosity.  

 

 

 

This is a very fair take Hondo

4 minutes ago, zow2 said:

So is Brady making Josh into a game manager?  Fantasy owners will be livid.  But in all seriousness I don't think Josh can be contained too long.  He will put on the cape and do his superman thing a few times a game even if the play doesn't call for it....and definitely in the playoffs.

Brady will be calling those plays when the defenses allow , and then a few when they dont.

No superman cape needed me hopes. Just do Josh things

we aint seen nuthin yet 🤠

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

I know the point here is to show the similar ranking, but the raw numbers themselves are pretty remarkable. If I'm reading those charts correct, after averaging 0.20 EPA per play last year Allen is now averaging 0.51 EPA per play through two games. So his efficiency has gone up 2.5x. That isn't going to be sustainable over 17 games considering the leader last year didn't even eclipse 0.35 but it is notable. The eye test says Allen is playing even more efficient ball this year and the stats back it up.

[NickelCity]

Very happy with the play calling. I'm surprised at how logical our offensive calls are, honestly. 

[SCBills]

On 9/4/2024 at 12:59 PM, hondo in seattle said:

 

I confess to worries.   But our TE and RB groups are good.  Our OL is okay.  Our QB is exceptional.  Shakir and Samuel are legit starters though things in the WR room get a little questionable after that.  I'm praying Keon proves worthy of his almost-first-round draft status or Barefoot Mack shocks us.    

 

Still, overall, I think Brady has enough tools (it starts with Josh) that he can design a productive offense even with some of the roster shortcomings.   There have been encouraging anecdotal reports about better communication, scheme modifications, and so on.  But will Brady in fact emerge this year as a talented OC and playcaller?  I don't know.  Hopefull signs don't make for a confirmed reality.  We'll see.  

 

I'm approaching this season with a ton of anxious curiosity.  

 

 

 

Our OL is way better than okay. 
 

They’re one of the best OL’s in football through two weeks.  
 

If they can hold their own against a Jax front that typically gives us issues, I’m sold.   

[Punching Bag]

2 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Our OL is way better than okay. 
 

They’re one of the best OL’s in football through two weeks.  
 

If they can hold their own against a Jax front that typically gives us issues, I’m sold.   

 

Aaron Kromer has changed how offense line plays between opponents and since we played them in 2023 he will have them ready.

[JROC INTEL]

On 9/3/2024 at 2:44 PM, Bruffalo said:

I think situational play calling is lost in the numbers here and I think that's the biggest difference between Dorsey and Brady.  Brady's offensive playcalling just doesn't leave me wondering "WTF was he thinking?" nearly as often as with Dorsey. 

 

Whether or not this translates to more success moving forward remains to be seen. 

This. Agree completely. 

[GETTOTHE50]

21 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

Very happy with the play calling. I'm surprised at how logical our offensive calls are, honestly. 

Yep. I haven’t said, what the hell kind of call is that these past two weeks. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I know the point here is to show the similar ranking, but the raw numbers themselves are pretty remarkable. If I'm reading those charts correct, after averaging 0.20 EPA per play last year Allen is now averaging 0.51 EPA per play through two games. So his efficiency has gone up 2.5x. That isn't going to be sustainable over 17 games considering the leader last year didn't even eclipse 0.35 but it is notable. The eye test says Allen is playing even more efficient ball this year and the stats back it up.

i believe if people understood how EPA functions as it relates to QB play they wouldn't be using it to differentiate between OCs, in particular as it pertains to Allen

 

One of my absolute favorite parts of Allen's game is how ruthless he is in high leverage situations ie third/fourth and long, third downs in own territory, etc...these are down/distances that have huge EPA implications by virtue of converting simply because his play in these spots vs avg QB performance is so lopsided. The Miami first down for example: EP of third and 12 from your opponent's 35 is roughly 2.45...Allen breaks contain and hits the RB down on the one for first and goal. That single play was worth over 4.3 EPA and it had little to nothing to do w whoever happened to be OC

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Our OL is way better than okay. 
 

They’re one of the best OL’s in football through two weeks.  
 

If they can hold their own against a Jax front that typically gives us issues, I’m sold.   

 

I wrote that before the regular season began and have been pleasantly surprised since.

 

Last year, Josh did a lot to make the OL look good - better than it was.

This year, the OL is doing a lot to make themselves look good.   

[GASabresIUFan]

I don't know what the stats are and honestly I don't care.  The team has played better since Dorsey was fired.  The Bills are 9-2 with Brady as OC and the offense wasn't to blame in either loss.

Edited 21 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, SCBills said:

Our OL is way better than okay. 
 

They’re one of the best OL’s in football through two weeks.  
 

If they can hold their own against a Jax front that typically gives us issues, I’m sold.   

 

I agree with this actually. Not sure it will survive... they have played two questionable Dlines... but through 2 weeks I have seen a LOT of bad offensive line play in the NFL - even from teams where it has traditionally been a strength: Cleveland, Baltimore; Dallas etc. The Bills have been one of the best 4 or 5 lines I have seen. And four of the Bills starters have been very good indeed. O'Cyrus Torrence is the one slight concern.

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

i believe if people understood how EPA functions as it relates to QB play they wouldn't be using it to differentiate between OCs, in particular as it pertains to Allen

 

One of my absolute favorite parts of Allen's game is how ruthless he is in high leverage situations ie third/fourth and long, third downs in own territory, etc...these are down/distances that have huge EPA implications by virtue of converting simply because his play in these spots vs avg QB performance is so lopsided. The Miami first down for example: EP of third and 12 from your opponent's 35 is roughly 2.45...Allen breaks contain and hits the RB down on the one for first and goal. That single play was worth over 4.3 EPA and it had little to nothing to do w whoever happened to be OC

That's my favorite part of Allen's game too.  There are so many fan bases that get frustrated when their QB checks it down on 3rd and 10 plus because the defense is covering the sticks and back so there's nowhere to throw.  He'll buy time by scrambling so the coverage eventually breaks down like it did in that play you just alluded too and a WR will find a small opening on a scrambling drill.

 

Here's a good illustration of that play.

 

 

[Billzgobowlin]

On 9/3/2024 at 3:42 PM, GoBills808 said:

i would encourage you folks to go and watch some panthers 2020 offense before you get too excited

 

it wasn't just laughably bad and predictable, it was boring af

Look at the roster too.  None of that offense would be starting for any team.  

[TheWeatherMan]

This is a similar story to when McD started Peterman over Allen and quickly realized Peterman sucked major donkey 🏈 ⚽️ s and Allen was an all world QB.  

[Mat68]

On 9/3/2024 at 2:20 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I think this is an issue of small sample size and one game overly affecting the stats.  In the Dallas game Cook rushed for 179 and Johnson added another 54. Allen only passed for 94 yards.  That is not a normal game for most NFL teams.  If Josh has a normal game of 250-270 yards instead of the 94 yards then his averages per game are nearly identical with Dorsey vs Brady. 

 

 

You would not get that game with Dorsey unless a weird weather game.  Allen has now had 2 such games.  Dallas and now Miami he passed for 130 yards.  Main difference between Brady and Dorsey.  Brady is intentional with the run.  Seems to call the runs he thinks work best vs the defense.  If he is correct he will call it over and over.  Dorsey had runs he liked and would call them.   No reason behind why. Based off formation and player groupings you could guess the run.  The part that I think makes the offense more efficient is Brady marries the run plays with play action and pass plays.  Less predictable except when they don't want to be.  That long Td there was not a surprise what Buffalo was running.  Miami knew what was coming and still hit it for a Td.  That play ended the game in the second quarter.     

1 hour ago, Billzgobowlin said:

Look at the roster too.  None of that offense would be starting for any team.  

Matt Rhule had his hand in the offense and made it more conservative. 

[T master]

On 9/3/2024 at 11:50 AM, Lost said:

After we went on our late season turnaround once Joe Brady took over as OC, the assumption was the offense was more efficient and we started leaning into the running game a lot more.   It's true we did run the ball more as Josh Allen doubled the amount of carries and we became more efficient in goal line scoring.  Perhaps just dumping the dreaded shotgun draw play from the 1yd line was enough to change that.   Overall however Josh's passing yds/game decreased under Brady as well as his QB rating.   Rushing averages for both Cook and Allen decreased under Brady as well.   I'm hoping brady shows off some new stuff this season but mostly all I've heard this offseason is that there really isn't a whole lot of new concepts except for Brady is letting the players have more choice in the plays they want to run.   Curious how it's gonna play out but I'm still not ready to anoint Joe Brady as the savior of the Bills offense.   

 

 

 

Well i'm not sure i am anointing him as a savior but his record with the Bills is pretty dang good !! Not exactly sure what his record is but i know he has at least 8 wins to this point and with all the player change this season with 2 wins I can't wait to see what they are like when every one learns the entire offense & Josh gets some chemistry with the new guys .

[hondo in seattle]

I'm still not entirely sold on Brady though I'm getting sold more  each week.  EPA looks great this year - so far - as do points on the scoreboard.  

 

But for those who say Carolina represents who Brady is...  I don't automatically agree.  First of all, coaches learn and grow.  I'd like to believe that Brady has studied his craft, learned from experience, and is a better OC now.  

 

The other point is that context matters.  Brady has a different roster now than he did in Carolina.  He also has a different group of offensive coaches supporting and advising him.  And a different Head Coach.  Sometimes people do crap in one environment and then thrive in a better one.  

I'm still unsure if Brady can scheme up a potent passing game if the need arises.  What if we're in a shootout, like GB mentioned?  Or what if a team plays single-high and/or loads the box?   Can Brady design a game plan that nets us 300-400 yards with medium and deep passes?  I'll feel better when I actually see a few games like that.  

 

For now I'm cautiously, ambivalently, hopeful.  

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm still not entirely sold on Brady though I'm getting sold more  each week.  EPA looks great this year - so far - as do points on the scoreboard.  

 

But for those who say Carolina represents who Brady is...  I don't automatically agree.  First of all, coaches learn and grow.  I'd like to believe that Brady has studied his craft, learned from experience, and is a better OC now.  

 

The other point is that context matters.  Brady has a different roster now than he did in Carolina.  He also has a different group of offensive coaches supporting and advising him.  And a different Head Coach.  Sometimes people do crap in one environment and then thrive in a better one.  

I'm still unsure if Brady can scheme up a potent passing game if the need arises.  What if we're in a shootout, like GB mentioned?  Or what if a team plays single-high and/or loads the box?   Can Brady design a game plan that nets us 300-400 yards with medium and deep passes?  I'll feel better when I actually see a few games like that.  

 

For now I'm cautiously, ambivalently, hopeful.  

I'm just as interested to see if we can stick w this run heavy approach in a close/big game tbh

 

I don't have the data to support this but I have a feeling we run the ball significantly better in low pressure situations

[mannc]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

I'm still not entirely sold on Brady though I'm getting sold more  each week.  EPA looks great this year - so far - as do points on the scoreboard.  

 

But for those who say Carolina represents who Brady is...  I don't automatically agree.  First of all, coaches learn and grow.  I'd like to believe that Brady has studied his craft, learned from experience, and is a better OC now.  

 

The other point is that context matters.  Brady has a different roster now than he did in Carolina.  He also has a different group of offensive coaches supporting and advising him.  And a different Head Coach.  Sometimes people do crap in one environment and then thrive in a better one.  

I'm still unsure if Brady can scheme up a potent passing game if the need arises.  What if we're in a shootout, like GB mentioned?  Or what if a team plays single-high and/or loads the box?   Can Brady design a game plan that nets us 300-400 yards with medium and deep passes?  I'll feel better when I actually see a few games like that.  

 

For now I'm cautiously, ambivalently, hopeful.  

I share these concerns.  I think the offense has been overly conservative the last two weeks, almost like Brady is protecting a rookie QB.  He's running into a lot of 8-man boxes (albeit with a fair level of success) and never takes advantage of favorable down and distance situations (like second and 1) to take a shot downfield.  The fact that Josh is averaging 10 yards per attempt is great, but it also suggests that Brady is not calling enough passing plays.  So far, so good, since we are 2-0, but I think this approach, if it continues, is going to cost us.  A team with Josh Allen at QB should be more aggressive in the passing game.