How much better is Joe Brady?

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I wasn't impressed with Brady at all last season except for the simple fact that we started winning more.  Josh's production went down under Brady and Brady only had one good (albeit very good) running game as I recall.  

 

But he's supposedly revamped the offense during the offseason so I cling to hope.  

 

I disagree a bit about what you said about nickel-and-diming.  Josh, Mahomes, and other big-armed QBs are seeing more and more two-high shells and other defenses designed to stop the long ball.  We need to be able to nickel-and-dime these teams.  A good offense will efficiently and brutally attack whatever weakness the defense presents.   They'll fear us as the stand by helplessly as we drive the ball down the field again and again.  

 

 

this is the theory and it is sound

 

where we diverge is whether we have the marriage of talent+coaching to manage that kind of offense

[hondo in seattle]

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

this is the theory and it is sound

 

where we diverge is whether we have the marriage of talent+coaching to manage that kind of offense

 

I confess to worries.   But our TE and RB groups are good.  Our OL is okay.  Our QB is exceptional.  Shakir and Samuel are legit starters though things in the WR room get a little questionable after that.  I'm praying Keon proves worthy of his almost-first-round draft status or Barefoot Mack shocks us.    

 

Still, overall, I think Brady has enough tools (it starts with Josh) that he can design a productive offense even with some of the roster shortcomings.   There have been encouraging anecdotal reports about better communication, scheme modifications, and so on.  But will Brady in fact emerge this year as a talented OC and playcaller?  I don't know.  Hopefull signs don't make for a confirmed reality.  We'll see.  

 

I'm approaching this season with a ton of anxious curiosity.  

 

 

 

Edited September 4 by hondo in seattle

[Lost]

21 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I disagree a bit about what you said about nickel-and-diming.  Josh, Mahomes, and other big-armed QBs are seeing more and more two-high shells and other defenses designed to stop the long ball.  We need to be able to nickel-and-dime these teams.  A good offense will efficiently and brutally attack whatever weakness the defense presents.  

 

 

 

I recall Beane saying this offseason that we needed more explosiveness.   Ball control offense is nice but 20 play 75yd drives are rare because offensive penalties will eventually rear their ugly head and kill off many of them.   The more snaps you take from center the more chances there are for refs to call false, starts, holding, etc.  

 

[ngbills]

15 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Daboll failed in his first three stints as a OC and then succeeded with us.   

 

In Sean Peyton's first gig as a NFL OC, he ended up having his playcalling duties stripped because his offense was stagnant, averaging a mere 12 points per game after the first seven games of 2002.  The offense improved massively when the HC, Jim Fassel, made himself the de facto OC and playcaller.  Yet a few years later, people started hailing Payton as an offensive mastermind.  

 

Sometimes people do better in better circumstances. 

 

And sometimes people learn and grow.  

 

 

How many OC's fail with a star QB? 

 

Have you looked at the QB's in Daboll 3 failures? Payton's failed OC stint? 

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is overstated. The first two games Brady took over - Jets and Eagles - were terrific offensive performances. After that it was pretty middling overall other than the Cowboys who we punched in the mouth. Only 20 points against the Chiefs, 24 points against the lame duck Chargers, 20 points against the Pats, 14 points against the Dolphins. In the divisional round our offense fell off a cliff in the 4th quarter (not blaming them for the loss, it's just the reality).

 

I do think Brady brought a different energy to the offense that was badly needed. But to use last year as an indication that Brady will be an "excellent OC" is a major exaggeration IMO. I'm giving Brady a clean slate to prove what he can do with a full offseason.

Bingo. Look at the last 7 games including the playoffs. The Bills only threw for over 230 yards in 1 game out of those 7. They had under 200 yards in 4. You can say it was because the run game but it was more the Josh Allen run game. The Bills were in desperation mode and ok with putting everything on Josh shoulders by the end of the season of which Brady benefitted. They cannot play that game for a 17 game plus playoffs season or Allen will be toast. Lets see how Brady does. But this miracle worker narrative is just plain false. The schemed O was not great in most games it was more the Josh playing hero ball attack. 

[DaVinci]

Good article in the Athletic concerning the Offensive creative contributions between coach and QB. in KC. Untill proven  wrong I believe our offense will be born of Mcd's 3 yards and a cloud of dust ball controll Offene. Can it Work ?. So far the recent past says no.

[hondo in seattle]

25 minutes ago, ngbills said:

How many OC's fail with a star QB? 

 

Have you looked at the QB's in Daboll 3 failures? Payton's failed OC stint? 

 

Sure.  My point was that OCs have do better later in their career either because their in better circumstances (better QB) or because they learn from experience.  

 

But the interesting this about Payton's failure with the Giants is this.  With Payton calling the plays in 2022, they averaged 12.7 points per game.  It was so poor that Fassel became the play caller and de facto OC.  For the rest of the season, the Giants averaged 25.7 ppg.  Clearly, Payton was no offensive guru back then.  He developed into one later.   

 

It's only natural that people learn and grow.  After his own stint as OC, Brady got to watch how Daboll and Dorsey ran the offense.  I imagine he's studied a bunch of film since then, picked the minds of other coaches, maybe attended seminars, read relevant books and articles...  I'm not sure what he's done but I hope he's used his time wisely and is a smarter, better OC then he was in Carolina.  Smart enough to transform this imperfect roster into a Top Five offense.  

 

12 minutes ago, ngbills said:

Bingo. Look at the last 7 games including the playoffs. The Bills only threw for over 230 yards in 1 game out of those 7. They had under 200 yards in 4. You can say it was because the run game but it was more the Josh Allen run game. The Bills were in desperation mode and ok with putting everything on Josh shoulders by the end of the season of which Brady benefitted. They cannot play that game for a 17 game plus playoffs season or Allen will be toast. Lets see how Brady does. But this miracle worker narrative is just plain false. The schemed O was not great in most games it was more the Josh playing hero ball attack. 

 

I'm with you guys, but only partially.  I agree that Brady wasn't particularly good in 2023.  But everything I've read and heard leads me to expect a different Brady in 2024. 

 

He's modified the scheme, changed the playbook, altered how meetings are run, etc.  I don't know if the '24 edition will be any better than the '23 edition but I'm holding out hope.  

Edited September 4 by hondo in seattle

[BigAl2526]

3 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I wasn't impressed with Brady at all last season except for the simple fact that we started winning more.  Josh's production went down under Brady and Brady only had one good (albeit very good) running game as I recall.  

 

But he's supposedly revamped the offense during the offseason so I cling to hope.  

 

I disagree a bit about what you said about nickel-and-diming.  Josh, Mahomes, and other big-armed QBs are seeing more and more two-high shells and other defenses designed to stop the long ball.  We need to be able to nickel-and-dime these teams.  A good offense will efficiently and brutally attack whatever weakness the defense presents.   They'll fear us as the stand by helplessly as we drive the ball down the field again and again.  

 

 

Absolutely, the Bills need to be able to run a nickel and dime/ball control offense.  I'm just saying it's better for the Bills if they can run a ball control offense and, if circumstances allow it, a big play offense.  After all, it is the threat of a big play offense that forces the other team's defense into more of a two high shell defense that makes a ball control offense more effective.  Strategizing in football is a proverbial chess match, and the more things you are capable of doing on offense, the harder it is for the defense focus on taking away some aspect of the offense. We just didn't see any big plays to speak of from Joe Brady after he took over.  I want to see that the offense is capable of it, not that it needs to happen all game, or even every game.  Once in a while would be nice.

Edited September 4 by BigAl2526

[colin]

I think our TE and RB production is going to be near the tops in the NFL (combined).  Our WR production will be maybe middle of the pack.  Josh's legs will be the xfactor and provide key 3rd downs and of course touch downs on top.  I think our OL will end the season better than the OL did last year.

 

Put all of that together, and I think we have a top 5 possibly top 3 O.  doing it with different combinations of TE and RB as well as mixing and matching the WRs will be the real strength.  if we are not predictable on O then it's a horrible challenge for the opponents.  if we can manufacture some YAC, we have a real shot of being a consistent 30+ point a game O.

[MJS]

On 9/3/2024 at 1:35 PM, ngbills said:

I have conclude that people will believe what they want here. Since Brady is the current and Dorsey the fired, most want to just say Brady is obviously better. Reality is we dont really know. Brady did a few things different that helped the team win. But a lot of the better O was simply a lot of Josh Allen because the Bills needed wins. He also benefitted from D playing much better. Lastly, they both had a lot of ugly O games. But Dorsey took the lumps of some McD blunders - Jets return for TD loss after giving up 10 points in the 4th, McD not holing lead vs NE in final minute, and the DEN debacle. 

I don't think that is reality, I think those are just your opinions. Yes, there is a lot we don't know, but we have a sample of games with Dorsey and a sample with Brady. That's enough to draw some conclusions. But yeah, we need to see more.

[Ayjent]

The word from opposing DCs on Dorsey was that he was easy to game plan against, didn’t have a counterpunch, and too much was predicated on execution that was easy to disrupt.   From watching the Bills I think we can all agree that those things make sense.  For example, you can know that several playcalls may have option routes and fool either the WR or QB into picking the wrong option, and if you are predictable with them, then you are just prone to a bad down unless you are bailed out by a remarkable individual effort.  There was also no shortage of miscommunication between Allen and Davis, and to a much lesser extent there were miscommunications with other WRs.  Still Dorsey’s offense moved the ball, they just stalled at some point because there wasn’t the right sequence of calls to keep the drive going. 

[DJB]

 

[LABILLBACKER]

I think Brady's offense allows Josh to be far less reckless.  Running Cook/Davis should bring 2 high safeties up as the season progresses.  I think you'll see 17 embrace the shorter/ safer TB12 type passes.  And I could realistically see Josh have a career low in interceptions.  Brady may not be Reid but he's worlds better than Dorsey.

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, DJB said:

 

[RichRiderBills]

I've had (almost) no issues w play calling. Some good stuff and some of the most balanced offense I've ever seen here. 

 

My one beef is empty on 1st down. I've never liked it. Like it less w this current team. Hate it even more in red zone.  It was empty when Allen fumbled v Cards in game 1. That play is my single issue. 

 

Overall, the team looks like they rep and practice. They seem like they know these plays better than years passed. 

[JohnNord]

On 9/3/2024 at 12:50 PM, Lost said:

After we went on our late season turnaround once Joe Brady took over as OC, the assumption was the offense was more efficient and we started leaning into the running game a lot more.   It's true we did run the ball more as Josh Allen doubled the amount of carries and we became more efficient in goal line scoring.  Perhaps just dumping the dreaded shotgun draw play from the 1yd line was enough to change that.   Overall however Josh's passing yds/game decreased under Brady as well as his QB rating.   Rushing averages for both Cook and Allen decreased under Brady as well.   I'm hoping brady shows off some new stuff this season but mostly all I've heard this offseason is that there really isn't a whole lot of new concepts except for Brady is letting the players have more choice in the plays they want to run.   Curious how it's gonna play out but I'm still not ready to anoint Joe Brady as the savior of the Bills offense.   

 

 

So your only metric for OC success is passing yardage?  
 

Brady ran the ball more because the defensive looks were dictating it

[Don Otreply]

On 9/3/2024 at 4:56 PM, Chaos said:

It’s a reasonable discussion to wonder why the Bills are so reluctant to hire from without.  Most teams do. 

Most teams aren’t very good, lol, just sayin. 😁👍

[Allen2Coleman]

He’s managed to turn Josh Allen into Trent Dilfer, I’ll give him that🤦‍♂️🤣🤣🤣

[3rdand12]

On 9/3/2024 at 2:44 PM, Bruffalo said:

I think situational play calling is lost in the numbers here and I think that's the biggest difference between Dorsey and Brady.  Brady's offensive playcalling just doesn't leave me wondering "WTF was he thinking?" nearly as often as with Dorsey. 

 

Whether or not this translates to more success moving forward remains to be seen. 

so far.

 I really did have a too many wtf s with Dorsey and was furious to be honest. And was vocal here.

 

remain hopeful here with Joe

We have not even seen his potential with the current offense , as he has been calling situational football to success .

excited for the 8 in the box cuz . And what he , Josh and The Boys do with that scenario !

 

On 9/3/2024 at 3:44 PM, Trev said:

Not better at all. He is a dink dunk coordinator. 

6-1

 now 2-0

 dink away Joe  lol

[zow2]

So is Brady making Josh into a game manager?  Fantasy owners will be livid.  But in all seriousness I don't think Josh can be contained too long.  He will put on the cape and do his superman thing a few times a game even if the play doesn't call for it....and definitely in the playoffs.