How much better is Joe Brady?

[GoBills808]

17 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good news/Bad news

 

Good News: this chart shows that Josh does better when "disrupted" than any QB in the league.

Bad News: this chart also shows that Josh gets "disrupted" more than any QB in the league.  That's a problem.  

im reading it as the disruption rate goes backwards on the x axis

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

im reading it as the disruption rate goes backwards on the x axis

 

 

 

Ah.  I think you're right.  I feel better now.

 

And that seems to pass the eye test.  I'm not sure how well our receivers are getting separation since I don't do All-22 but the OL has been playing well.  It's been good to see to see Allen stand in clean pockets with time to scan the field.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Ah.  I think you're right.  I feel better now.

 

And that seems to pass the eye test.  I'm not sure how well our receivers are getting separation since I don't do All-22 but the OL has been playing well.  It's been good to see to see Allen stand in clean pockets with time to scan the field.  

Yup I kind of figured the pass blocking had a chance to improve once they moved on from Morse tbh

 

I also think the way they measure 'disruption' might be a little less meaningful for mobile QBs wrt perfect coverage/pass rush...Allen for example will leave clean pockets to buy extra time for receivers to come uncovered

[Big Turk]

34 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Good news/Bad news

 

Good News: this chart shows that Josh does better when "disrupted" than any QB in the league.

Bad News: this chart also shows that Josh gets "disrupted" more than any QB in the league.  That's a problem.  

 

Not necessarily.

 

If a team chooses to blitz Allen, many times he makes the free man miss, escapes and makes them pay down field. That's "disrupted" but Allen intentionally has it happen to make something big out of it.

 

Most other QBs are throwing hot, getting sacked or throwing the ball away...they aren't getting disrupted but they aren't making anything happen either most times.

 

This also is not a logical conclusion based on our composite pass blocking grade(3 site average between PFF, ESPN and SIS) which is tied for #1 in the NFL with Indy.

Edited September 21 by Big Turk

[folz]

1 hour ago, Rockinon said:

It would be interesting to see time of possession here too. I would assume it's higher under Brady.

 

I edited my post to include Time of Possession, per your request. 👍

[Rockinon]

2 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I edited my post to include Time of Possession, per your request. 👍

Thanks for that. It's something that I think should be watched throughout the season. Teams are going to be running more league wide I think so it's a going to be important. Whoever is successful controlling the clock is going to win more, at least until defenses start bringing a safety up into the box again.

[Sierra Foothills]

17 hours ago, folz said:

Not sure how much we can draw from the stats this early in Brady's tenure, but here is a brief comparison for regular season games:

 

                              Dorsey (27 games)              Brady (9 games)

Record:                18-8 (1-1 in playoffs)            8-1 (1-1 in playoffs)

Points/game                26.55                                   28.22

Yards/game                372.65                                  363.77

TDs/game                    3.1                                        3.0

1st Downs/gm              21.7                                      21.8

Turnovers/gm              2.07                                      1.22

Sacks/game                 1.7                                         1.4

Passing yds/gm          246.85                                  221.0

Pass yds/att                 7.2                                        7.34

Rushing yds/gm          125.8                                    142.77

Rush yds/att                4.96                                      4.05       

Pass/Rush Ratio     57.5% / 42.5%                   46.1% / 53.9%

Avg.Time of Pos/gm   29.51 mins                            33.33 mins     [Added as an edit per request]    

 

 

Now if we look at Dorsey's last six games before getting fired:

Record: 2-4

Points/gm: 17.57

Yards/gm: 356.16

Pass yds/gm: 254

Rush yds/gm: 102

 

Was the team just in a slump, or had defenses figured out how to shut down our offense under Dorsey and he had no answers? Either way, I think Brady is more on trend with our current offense. I guess the question will be can he adapt well when he needs to. You probably need less adaptation when you are a running/short passing team, which is also good. But the NFL is always changing. Can Brady stay ahead of the curve? I think so, I hope so.

 

GREAT work.

 

Thank you!

 

[3rdand12]

On 9/21/2024 at 11:07 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Predictability on offense didn't work at the end of the Arizona game when the Bills couldn't convert to close out the game and settled for a field goal and 6 point lead.   Fortunately, Kyler Murray missed Marvin Harrison Jr. running undefended for the possible game winner in the closing minute.    They could have scored with an arm punt he was so open.  75% runs on the easiest down to pass was unnecessarily cute.   Escaped with a win.    Shouldn't risk giving away games to set tendency in a 17 game season.   

I am not suggesting it's a recipe for success. Just based on the Miami game. Bills seems to control the trenches . Nearly no trickery needed

[Rockinon]

One thing I am seeing is a larger percentage of pre-snap motions. What this does is, it gives Allen an opportunity to watch how the defense responds to that motion and identify what type of coverage they are in. The Saints are also doing this and there have been some early returns for both teams. These teams are being very deliberate in how they are attacking a defense. I think Josh is becoming a real headache for opposing defenses and not just because of his physical gifts. He's now winning by outwitting defenses by taking advantage of their weaknesses. Every type of coverage has a weakness and Josh is capitalizing on that.

 

I'll go a step further, Josh isn't the only one identifying coverages.  RBs, WRs and TEs are too.  Players are finding soft spots in zone and identifying when they have opportunities going against man. The Bills have been extremely efficient and I think this is a big reason why.

 

The offense is a well oiled machine right now. Let's hope it continues.

[strive_for_five_guy]

ALOT

[UConn James]

Must be because he drinks Moxie (an old-timey sasparilla flavor that makes many people gag) soda in the booth.

Edited September 24 by UConn James

[GunnerBill]

Than Ken Dorsey? 

 

A lot.

[hondo in seattle]

Brady's first half today was a thing of beauty.  

 

Good game plan & play calling.  

[Scott7975]

 

[Scott7975]

On 9/23/2024 at 9:08 PM, GunnerBill said:

Than Ken Dorsey? 

 

A lot.

 

IIRC you weren't really in favor of firing Dorsey. Am I correct?  If so, are you glad now?

[Royale with Cheese]

One thing I noticed on Monday is the energy.  
 

Last year, I went to the Giants SNF game where our offense sucked.  Before the game, I was watching warm ups and looking at Dorsey.  He was just pacing back and forth on the sidelines by himself.  No head phones on, not interacting with anyone…just pacing.

 

This past Monday, I am watching Brady and he is dapping everyone up, he is dancing, rapping the lyrics and just bringing energy.

 

Im looking at Babich and its the same way.  He’s as energetic as the players.

 

Moving on from low energy Leslie Frazier and low energy Dorsey was the best decision this team made.  

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

IIRC you weren't really in favor of firing Dorsey. Am I correct?  If so, are you glad now?

 

It was not so much that I wasn't in favour. I was pretty critical of Dorsey going back to the middle of his first year for the vanilla nature of his offence that stressed high end execution when he didn't have much high end talent to work with. I'd have dispensed with him after the 2023 season but I was surprised by the timing of his firing. I wouldn't necessarily have done it when the Bills did. However, having heard some of what was going on inside, his players lobbying for a change etc, it makes more sense to me. 

 

I've been pretty optimistic on Joe Brady from the start. And so far so good.

[Billy Claude]

4 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Moving on from low energy Leslie Frazier and low energy Dorsey was the best decision this team made.  

 

How was Dorsey low energy?  He was the one that wreck the booth after the Miami game.

 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

How was Dorsey low energy?  He was the one that wreck the booth after the Miami game.

 

Wrecking booths doesn’t show high energy.  It can show that they are quick to anger, easily frustrated, or frequently irritable.  
 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Wrecking booths doesn’t show high energy.  It can show that they are quick to anger, easily frustrated, or frequently irritable.  
 

 

I mean I took a TON of heat at the time for saying I thought it was concerning. Back then the consensus here was a coach showing fire is a good thing. But it was an uncontrolled rage. And coaches who lose control lose their guys. By the middle of his second season his guys were asking the Head Coach to fire him per other posters on this forum. It doesn't surprise me one bit.