How big of a concern is the Safety position?

[GASabresIUFan]

With the 1st Bills game a few days away, the safety position is still unsettled.  The 3 candidates to start along with Rapp have all been hurt.  Hamlin looked good in camp until his injury, while Bishop (R) and Edwards were hurt early in camp and are now getting healthy.  I'm sure we'll know before game time who is starting, but that uncertainty coupled with moving on from Poyer and Hyde does raise questions about the viability of the position short and long-term.

 

Personally, I'm not overly concerned.  Rapp has been a starter most of his career (52 of 73 games) and acquitted himself well he started for the Bills at the end of the season.  At worst he'll give us what Poyer did the last few years.

 

Now the candidates to replace Hyde.  Bishop is a rookie 2nd rd pick from Utah and looks like the very long-term solution at one of the safety positions, but his injury makes him a backup early in the year as he learns the defense and speed of the NFL.  The leaves Hamlin and Edwards.  The heathier of the two is probably the starter against the Cards.  Hamlin, who already knows the defense and has started at safety before is probably McD's preferred choice. Edwards does have more NFL experience (73 games 28 starts), and was solid when he filled in as an injury starter for KC last year.  

 

By the way Rapp is 26 (former 2nd rd pick), Edwards 27 (former 3rd rd pick) and Hamlin 26 (former 6th rd pick).  

 

The transition of the safeties this season is very similar to what we went through in 2017.  Hyde, then 27, a former 5th rd pick, had played 63 games for GB including 33 starts.  Poyer, then 26, a former 7th rd pick, had played 48 games (10 starts) mostly with Cleveland.  Neither was a big time acquisition.  Neither were considering full time starting material on the teams they left.  Playing in McD's defense helped turn them into All-pros.  

 

 

Edited September 3 by GASabresIUFan

[FireChans]

Hamlin was terrible when he replaced Hyde all season 2 years ago.

 

Rapp is a human missile with poor body control.

 

Spending a second rounder on Bishop and not having him take a starting job immediately is disappointing.

 

By process of elimination, I feel the best about Mike Edwards.

[boyst]

It's not the Achilles heel of the defense because we have bigger more important issues, perhaps in order:

1) LB

2) CB

3t) depth across the board

3t) safety

 

McDermott struggled to adjust the defense with injuries last year, I have to believe this is going to remain an issue in 2024. Dorian Williams really has to step up.

 

CB is hoping Douglas maintains a starting form, Bendord can play 93.7% of the season, Elam makes a jump in year 3, Jamarcus Ingram can be the #2 if needed. One injury away from being *****.

 

DT, DE, Nickel, we don't have depth. Nickel is hard to have depth, sure. But this defense relies heavily on it and a special instinctive one at that. Rousseau is a legit starter, AJE can play, Miller is toast. Jones is beat up, Oliver is damn good; beyond those two we have nothing to get to the QB.

 

This will be a great year for McDermott to prove something. His scheme will be pinned upon someone else, however. Regardless, can he and this team cover up enough blemishes on defense?

 

What's equally depressing is nothing was done on offense to raise the bar, either. 

[MJS]

To be honest, I feel a mixture of all of them. So, I didn't vote.

[Rubes]

5 minutes ago, boyst said:

It's not the Achilles heel of the defense because we have bigger more important issues, perhaps in order:

1) LB

2) CB

3t) depth across the board

3t) safety

 

McDermott struggled to adjust the defense with injuries last year, I have to believe this is going to remain an issue in 2024. Dorian Williams really has to step up.

 

CB is hoping Douglas maintains a starting form, Bendord can play 93.7% of the season, Elam makes a jump in year 3, Jamarcus Ingram can be the #2 if needed. One injury away from being *****.

 

DT, DE, Nickel, we don't have depth. Nickel is hard to have depth, sure. But this defense relies heavily on it and a special instinctive one at that. Rousseau is a legit starter, AJE can play, Miller is toast. Jones is beat up, Oliver is damn good; beyond those two we have nothing to get to the QB.

 

This will be a great year for McDermott to prove something. His scheme will be pinned upon someone else, however. Regardless, can he and this team cover up enough blemishes on defense?

 

What's equally depressing is nothing was done on offense to raise the bar, either. 

 

Actually, I think McD did a respectable, if not impressive, job last year given the incredible number of injuries, many at key positions. It wasn't pretty at times, but I think a lot of other coaches would have done worse with that situation.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Hamlin was terrible when he replaced Hyde all season 2 years ago.

 

Rapp is a human missile with poor body control.

 

Spending a second rounder on Bishop and not having him take a starting job immediately is disappointing.

 

By process of elimination, I feel the best about Mike Edwards.

Hamlin was ok. Johnson was terrible and off the roster at the end of the year. When Hamlin played next to Poyer he held his won. Not great but not terrible. 

If Bishop is healthy and can't win a starting job as a second round pick, it's another huge 2nd round miss by Beane. 

Give then a few weeks to see if Bishop can play and if not call in Hyde

[That's No Moon]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Hamlin was terrible when he replaced Hyde all season 2 years ago.

Ppl tend to forget about that.

[Don Otreply]

It’s very likely not as big a deal as some believe, 

 

but what the hell do I know, I’m a 65 year old pensioner, that believes he’s right most of the time, and frankly nothing is worse than the guy with the “ Get Off My Lawn “ sign in the front yard, 🤣

[SCBills]

Some concern. 

 

I just don't value the position as much as other positions, so I can't be overly freaked out.  Also, I do trust McDermott/Babich to coach & scheme them up properly. 

 

Our Defense doesn't hinge on Safety play or Matt Milano's replacement..  It hinges on the DL.  Same as always.  If Von is back to being close to pre-injury Von on pass downs and Rousseau makes the jump we've all been hoping for.. this Defense will be a Top 10 unit. 

[FireChans]

39 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Hamlin was ok. Johnson was terrible and off the roster at the end of the year. When Hamlin played next to Poyer he held his won. Not great but not terrible. 

If Bishop is healthy and can't win a starting job as a second round pick, it's another huge 2nd round miss by Beane. 

Give then a few weeks to see if Bishop can play and if not call in Hyde

Hamlin played much more the Johnson and was a key reason the Bills run defense was terrible in 2022. He was constantly taking bad angles or whiffing. 
 

I don’t want to harp on the kid too much because of everything he has gone through but he did not put a lot of good tape out there. Splitting hairs if he was mediocre or bad also does not interest me. I don’t think he’s a starting S at the NFL level. He’s exactly what he has been, a backup late round pick. 

[GASabresIUFan]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Hamlin was terrible when he replaced Hyde all season 2 years ago.

 

Rapp is a human missile with poor body control.

 

Spending a second rounder on Bishop and not having him take a starting job immediately is disappointing.

 

By process of elimination, I feel the best about Mike Edwards.

I don't think Hamlin was "terrible" in 2022.  In fact, I think he did a decent job when be forced into the lineup.   

 

This is from Cover1.com  https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-damar-hamlin-2022-impact/#:~:text=Pro Football Focus graded Hamlin,%%2C tied with Tyrann Mathieu.

Quote

 

The Facts

Damar Hamlin finished third on the Bills in tackles last season with 91. Taking that a step further, he had the most tackles in the secondary by 28. Hamlin, a safety, was tied on the Bills for ninth in sacks and tied for second in forced fumbles. His six tackles for a loss were the most of any player for Buffalo outside of the front seven.

 

But Greg, those are just counting stats…

 

Pro Football Focus graded Hamlin inside the top 50 safeties (64 safeties are considered starters) in their overall grade and coverage grade. He was seventh in their pass rush grade with a 74.6. SIS Data Hub has him 10th among qualified safeties (played 10+ games) with a sack rate of 7.1%, tied with Tyrann Mathieu. His hit percentage when rushing the passer was 19%, dropping him all the way down to 14th, ahead of Javon Holland, Justin Reid, and other big names. The dude did all this while stepping into a void left by injuries from a pair of All-Pros. Not the easiest shoes to fill!

 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

3 hours ago, SCBills said:

Some concern. 

 

I just don't value the position as much as other positions, so I can't be overly freaked out.  Also, I do trust McDermott/Babich to coach & scheme them up properly. 

 

Our Defense doesn't hinge on Safety play or Matt Milano's replacement..  It hinges on the DL.  Same as always.  If Von is back to being close to pre-injury Von on pass downs and Rousseau makes the jump we've all been hoping for.. this Defense will be a Top 10 unit. 

Speed + Solid Situational Awareness + Great Tackling is a hard combination to find in todays football at that position. That being said I pretty much agree with your statement. 

[JP51]

I think it is going to be concern especially if Edwards is out for a bit... I think ultimately you may see it show up in CB play and run support so may be a difficult year for Douglas and Benford and Elam.... with Milano being out I worry about being gashed for 10-12 yards too often. 

[ALLinALLEN]

Safety is riding on a rookie 2nd rounder who hasnt practiced much at all this pre-season, Rapp (who could really save his career with a great year), and an expendable vet from the Chiefs. I've been vocal about the Safety concern since start of preseason but I'm hoping they can manage it this year. If not I could see a lot of teams exploiting us, especially with all the talented QB's we play this year. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Hamlin played much more the Johnson and was a key reason the Bills run defense was terrible in 2022. He was constantly taking bad angles or whiffing. 
 

I don’t want to harp on the kid too much because of everything he has gone through but he did not put a lot of good tape out there. Splitting hairs if he was mediocre or bad also does not interest me. I don’t think he’s a starting S at the NFL level. He’s exactly what he has been, a backup late round pick. 

Oh he was a huge downgrade from Hyde but he was vastly better than Johnson. Johnson couldn't do anything. No idea why he lasted on the roster so long. He's barely been in the league since Bills released him.

You are correct about Hamlin taking bad angles. He did it several times.

 

There were still a couple veterans not named Hyde that Beane could have signed the last month even after all the injuries. He chose not to. Probably banking on Bishop being able to play. Have to think Hyde is signed to the PS in a week or two and brought up for game day. He could be a player coach.

[TheBeaneBandit]

Mildly concerned but by mid season I think the position will settle into stability. Edwards will probably start opposite Rapp with Bishop nipping at one of their toes and maybe supplanting one by later in the year.

[oldmanfan]

Some concern but not matching your scenarios.  We give up experience but gain in athleticism.

[billsbackto81]

Very concerned it will cost us games. Hamlin is not starting caliber. Rapp is undisciplined and bad in coverage. Bishop is behind on his development in the pro game and overall team scheme. Edwards may be ok but he doesn't have studs like Snead and Mcduffie on the boundaries to make his duties easy.

 

Hope I'm wrong....

[BuffaloBillyG]

I thought Rapp showed well at the back half of the season last year. You could tell he was getting more comfortable with what he was asked to do and where he was supposed to be. 

 

Likewise, Damar started playing well before the Cincinnati "no game" IMO. I can fully understand last year having a step back. As long as he's 100% locked in. 

 

I think McDermott and Babich will help the transition for both players. In this defense, communication is important...and at the safety position it's even moreso. As long as Rapp/Damar have a good handle on that I think they will be league average at minimum.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I don't think Hamlin was "terrible" in 2022.  In fact, I think he did a decent job when be forced into the lineup.   

 

This is from Cover1.com  https://www.cover1.net/buffalo-bills-damar-hamlin-2022-impact/#:~:text=Pro Football Focus graded Hamlin,%%2C tied with Tyrann Mathieu.

 

 

Inside the top 50 is a very funny way to describe the 49th best safety in football. That’s, by definition, below average.

 

Putting aside that judging safeties on sacks is on its face pretty bizarre, tied for ninth on the Bills for sacks was 1.5. Aka a half sack less than Boogie Basham.

Let’s talk the counting stats that aren’t addressed here:

 

2022 passes defensed. Hamlin had 2. Tied with Von Miller and Boogie Basham. Less than Elam and Siran Neal.

 

Let’s talk advanced stats.

 

Hamlin was targeted in coverage 35 times on the year. Resulting in 25 completions (71%) 454 (!) yards, a 142 passer rating, and 3 TD’s.

 

It’s cool he had some success on safety blitzes. He blitzed 16 times on the year. He was terrible in coverage and terrible in run defense.