Draft grades -- days 3 and 4.

[VW82]

6 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Then you also need to acknowledge, at this point, it’s a pattern of not finding impact players early in the draft.   Something is odd, they do find a lot of guys late, yet continue to whiff early.

 

I've never agreed with this point. Yes, we didn't exactly hit with Edmunds, but he also got 50M guaranteed. Elam looks like a miss though there's still time. Ford and Bashum were misses.  Kincaid and O'Cyrus look like hits. Cook was a hit. Josh was a home run. Trading for Diggs was at least a double. Oliver and Rousseau were hits even some around these parts have expressed disappointment. AJ looked like a miss but he keeps getting better and now he's a re-signed starter on a good deal. That's a hit. 

 

By my count, that's 9/12 in the first two rounds if we write off Elam and including the Diggs trade. Or you could be overly harsh and include Edmunds and AJ as misses, in which case it's still 7/12. It's too early to say either way on Coleman or Bishop. I'm betting most teams aren't hitting those percentages.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

To be fair, he did spend a 1st on Diggs too, but we obviously need more attention there. I think it will come next season thru the draft, FA or both. As some have pointed to, I wouldn’t rule out a trade near the deadline.

 

Let’s hope some of the “younger guys” can reach elite status. Kincaid is an obvious choice, but I’d like to see Rousseau stay healthy and become a wrecking ball. 

I hear you, and I get the Diggs for multiple picks thing, but there was big talent available in that draft, it’s been seven years, and only one high draft pick (a 2nd) and trade of picks for Diggs to address needed elite WR spots, I guess it’s the not going “all in” on offensive talent that bugs me a bit, yes Kincaid, but he is a pass catching TE not a WR, you need both, to me Beane/McDermott are too piece meal in how they address the offenses needs season to season, it frustrates me that Sean’s Defense gets the #1 priority pretty much every offseason, and that defense lays an egg in every postseason, jmo, always hoping for the best! 😁🍸🚬
 

GO BILLS!!!!

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear you, and I get the Diggs for multiple picks thing, but there was big talent available in that draft, it’s been seven years, and only one high draft pick (a 2nd) and trade of picks for Diggs to address needed elite WR spots, I guess it’s the not going “all in” on offensive talent that bugs me a bit, yes Kincaid, but he is a pass catching TE not a WR, you need both, to me Beane/McDermott are too piece meal in how they address the offenses needs season to season, it frustrates me that Sean’s Defense gets the #1 priority pretty much every offseason, and that defense lays an egg in every postseason, jmo, always hoping for the best! 😁🍸🚬
 

GO BILLS!!!!

 

Honestly, I’m glad they put more effort into the OL first vs WR. I know you obviously need both, but I don’t want Josh any more damaged than necessary. I want to give him weapons, but not if he’s beaten to death as a result.  

 

And I don’t want to argue about the quality OLine! 😂 They made moves to shore it up, and they improved. Now I pray that Kromer can coach it up. 

 

Go Bills to you too!!!  🍺 

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

I've never agreed with this point. Yes, we didn't exactly hit with Edmunds, but he also got 50M guaranteed. Elam looks like a miss though there's still time. Ford and Bashum were misses.  Kincaid and O'Cyrus look like hits. Cook was a hit. Josh was a home run. Trading for Diggs was at least a double. Oliver and Rousseau were hits even some around these parts have expressed disappointment. AJ looked like a miss but he keeps getting better and now he's a re-signed starter on a good deal. That's a hit. 

 

By my count, that's 9/12 in the first two rounds if we write off Elam and including the Diggs trade. Or you could be overly harsh and include Edmunds and AJ as misses, in which case it's still 7/12. It's too early to say either way on Coleman or Bishop. I'm betting most teams aren't hitting those percentages.

 

 

We disagree on what a hit is.  In the first round, if they aren’t an impact player, I don’t consider it a hit.  Allen is the only first round player that is a true impact player.  Oliver is a good player, as is Groot, but nobody is worrying about them.  They are average starters.  That’s not a bad outcome, but with Oliver being a top 10 pick, he’s a disappointment.  Elam is a bust, Kincaid is promising, we’ll see, same for Torrence. AJE is a JAG.  Diggs trade..  I really consider it a loss because the benefit of a first round pick is 5 years of cost control and Diggs wasn’t here 5 years and was immediately paid and then paid again and now is taking 30M in cap to play for another contender in the AFC.   So objectively, the Diggs trade was a disaster. 
 

I don’t think Beane is doing a bad job on the whole, but his inability to find anyone of real impact outside of Josh is the difference between rings and watching KC win another.  The lack of talent on the roster is what caused the Von signing, after burning 2 high picks on that very position the year before, so you wasted a draft and burned massive amounts of cap on the same position, that is the type of thing that’s sets you back big time, and it has.

Edited August 31 by DCofNC

[folz]

5 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

I asked about the 53 man roster.  
 

PS doesn’t count as so few get called up.  Picks Beane let go who ended up on other teams don’t count either because there’s no reason to believe many or all would not have been selected by other teams initially.

see above, Pavlov’s dog..

 

Keep pushing that goalpost...

 

The original posts were about Brandon doing a good job drafting late round talent. So even if a guy is on a different squad at this point, for whatever reason, it still means it was a good pick (a talented player), and if they are still in the organization (practice squad) again, they're good enough for the organization to still be grooming them (they weren't complete busts and out of the league, i.e. a bad pick). 

 

But to satisfy you, there are 17 players still on the active roster. Or 1/3 of our roster came from rounds 4 or later. Considering free agency and that the better players are drafted in rounds 1-3 (generally 62% of a team's starters), I would guess that that is probably still a pretty good percentage.

 

Plus, it ignores guys that we got a lot of production from, but for whatever reason (money, cap, wanting to improve the position) they have moved on.

Siran Neal (played 6 years for the Bills), Gabe Davis (played 4 years for the Bills), Ike Boettger (5 years, 17 starts), Levi Wallace (4 years, 52 starts), Tyrell Dodson (4 years). According to you, since they are no longer on the roster, they don't count as pluses for Beane. They automatically get logged as bad picks? Come on. 

 

Seriously, I don't know what you guys expect. How many teams/GMs do you think are finding lots of high-quality starters that last more than 4 or 5 years on a team in rounds 4 or later?

 

Mr. WEO, pick your favorite GM, the best GM in the league and I'll take a look at his rate of late round picks and we can compare.

[VW82]

16 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

We disagree on what a hit is.  In the first round, if they aren’t an impact player, I don’t consider it a hit.  Allen is the only first round player that is a true impact player.  Oliver is a good player, as is Groot, but nobody is worrying about them.  They are average starters.  That’s not a bad outcome, but with Oliver being a top 10 pick, he’s a disappointment.  Elam is a bust, Kincaid is promising, we’ll see, same for Torrence. AJE is a JAG.  Diggs trade..  I really consider it a loss because the benefit of a first round pick is 5 years of cost control and Diggs wasn’t here 5 years and was immediately paid and then paid again and now is taking 30M in cap to play for another contender in the AFC.   So objectively, the Diggs trade was a disaster. 
 

I don’t think Beane is doing a bad job on the whole, but his inability to find anyone of real impact outside of Josh is the difference between rings and watching KC win another.  The lack of talent on the roster is what caused the Von signing, after burning 2 high picks on that very position the year before, so you wasted a draft and burned massive amounts of cap on the same position, that is the type of thing that’s sets you back big time, and it has.

 

Oliver had a bit of a down year last year compared to the previous two but he's better than an average starter by almost any calculation. As for our other DL, using PFF as a neutral reference, Rousseau had an 85 grade and AJ was at 80. That's way above average. 

 

Yes, we signed Von for a talent ceiling upgrade and it blew up in our faces. We were a bit unlucky there. Diggs was also a talent ceiling upgrade, and for the first three years he was easily a top 10 WR in the league, if not top 5. You don't expect to get top 5-10 players at their position picking in the bottom half of the first round. So yes, only getting four years instead of five of team control wasn't ideal, and the dead cap is way less than ideal, but we got all pro level play for a good chunk of it, and have a top 40 pick incoming next draft because of the Houston trade. Characterizing the Diggs trade/era as a disaster is a total misreading of events imo. 

 

Beane isn't perfect. He was the one who put us in cap hell in the first place, and as you point out, none of our top picks outside of Josh have become superstars. What we've had instead is rosters stock full of quality players, including those drafted in rounds 1&2, who are mostly above average for their position with a few guys like Taron and Milano who became top guys out of nowhere. I just don't see how anyone can make the claim that Beane hasn't been way above average.     

[Augie]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

I've never agreed with this point. Yes, we didn't exactly hit with Edmunds, but he also got 50M guaranteed. Elam looks like a miss though there's still time. Ford and Bashum were misses.  Kincaid and O'Cyrus look like hits. Cook was a hit. Josh was a home run. Trading for Diggs was at least a double. Oliver and Rousseau were hits even some around these parts have expressed disappointment. AJ looked like a miss but he keeps getting better and now he's a re-signed starter on a good deal. That's a hit. 

 

By my count, that's 9/12 in the first two rounds if we write off Elam and including the Diggs trade. Or you could be overly harsh and include Edmunds and AJ as misses, in which case it's still 7/12. It's too early to say either way on Coleman or Bishop. I'm betting most teams aren't hitting those percentages.

 

 

 

If you count Edmunds and AJ as “misses”, you need some better perspective, IMO. 

 

The Bishop injury is a bummer, but he’s still learning. I won’t pretend to tell you about his college tape. I saw a few highlights, like most people. I will say that if they felt strongly enough to take him that high, I’m optimistic. Now coach him up! 

[Don Otreply]

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

Honestly, I’m glad they put more effort into the OL first vs WR. I know you obviously need both, but I don’t want Josh any more damaged than necessary. I want to give him weapons, but not if he’s beaten to death as a result.  

 

And I don’t want to argue about the quality OLine! 😂 They made moves to shore it up, and they improved. Now I pray that Kromer can coach it up. 

 

Go Bills to you too!!!  🍺 

I consider O-line to be part of going all in on offense, and am pleased that they have been addressing that group, 😁👍

[Saxum]

14 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Forget the first 2 days for the moment. Can you recall any team having a better day 3 or 4 (UDFAs and invites) than Beane put together this year? Granted, it's too soon to know the final results, but I think several of these guys fron Davis to Andreesson have a real shot at becoming excellent starters. On top of that, we've got very good draft capital for next year and we will have plenty of FA money to spend.

To me, when you say the Bills' window is closed, what you're really saying is that you have no faith in Beane. Sure he's had some misses, but he's had far more hits.

What do you think?

 

I think some fans on this board should be swapped to JESTS and have to deal with inane coaches and GMs they have been there.  

[Cray51]

I posted an analysis earlier this year, where I showed that Beane is one of the best in the league at finding NFL talent in the draft and UDFA.  He understands which traits turn players into NFL talent.

[NeverOutNick]

6 minutes ago, Cray51 said:

I posted an analysis earlier this year, where I showed that Beane is one of the best in the league at finding NFL talent in the draft and UDFA.  He understands which traits turn players into NFL talent.

He has a good eye for value but man he’s hit or miss when it comes to WR. Maybe that’s why he’s worried about taking so many chances on them in the draft. When it comes to finding mid to late round O line talent, LBers and corners him and his FO nail it 

[billsfan89]

Bills got some good day 3 and undrafted years. 2017, 2018, 2020, and 2022 all yielded starting players and role players. 

 

2017- Milano 

2018- Taron Johnson, Neal, Levi Wallace, and Boetteger (Neal a role player Boetteger a brief starter) 

2020- Gabe Davis, Bass, and Dane

2022- Shakir, Benford, while Spector and Anderson have caught on as backups. 

 

Even a weaker year like 2021 still yielded Demar and Morris who caught on as backups. Only 2019 and 2023 really look like years where they couldn't at least produce multiple viable backups if not starters in day 3 and undrafted players. 

 

I would say that the Bills day 3 and UDFA record from 2017 to now is pretty dam good. If you can produce a starter (let alone two like in some seasons) and a role player or two in that area that's a pretty good record to have in that area of player development. 

[Buffalo716]

14 hours ago, H2o said:

And this is the difference between us and KC. They drafted Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Creed Humphrey, Tyreek Hill, and Trey Smith. Now granted not all of those guys are there anymore, but they have all turned out to be top tier players and contributed to their run. We drafted Josh Allen. 

You literally list bolton but not Milano or Edmunds both pro bowlers we drafted... Ed Oliver is a stud .. taron Johnson is a top 5-7 nickel ..  Spencer Brown is about to break out ... Gregg Rousseau is young and huge 

Edited September 1 by Buffalo716

[Billzgobowlin]

On 8/31/2024 at 8:09 AM, H2o said:

And this is the difference between us and KC. They drafted Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Creed Humphrey, Tyreek Hill, and Trey Smith. Now granted not all of those guys are there anymore, but they have all turned out to be top tier players and contributed to their run. We drafted Josh Allen. 

I think top tier might be pushing it.  I think we get caught up on the grass is greener syndrome.  Do you forget Tre White, Matt Milano, Josh Allen, Taron Johnson, Kincaid, Torrence, Terrell Bernard, Christian Bernard, Wyatt Teller, and Ed Oliver.

[In Summary]

On 8/31/2024 at 12:42 PM, Brand J said:

I’m all for accumulating picks and using them, not trading them away (all-in on a QB being the exception).

Absolutely 

[ColoradoBills]

On 8/31/2024 at 4:38 PM, Don Otreply said:

I consider O-line to be part of going all in on offense, and am pleased that they have been addressing that group, 😁👍

 

Totally agree.  OL needs 5 good starters.  The OL is only as good as its weakest link.

You can hide one bad OL man with schemes but that only limits the play of a TE or RB which could be used as weapons.

 

It is obvious that many on this board disagrees with me, but the OL overall talent is just as important as the 5 WR talent.

Love to see Josh with a little more time.  I think he tears it up.

 

Diggs not realizing his role and creating the bad situation hurt this team a lot.  Beane is doing his best to adjust.

 

 

[Saxum]

6 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Diggs not realizing his role and creating the bad situation hurt this team a lot.  Beane is doing his best to adjust.

 

 

Agree completely; he acted like a diva to get more money and acted like a diva to get traded and get more money.  Perfect player for new ownership in NFL.

[FireChans]

On 8/31/2024 at 4:31 PM, folz said:

 

Keep pushing that goalpost...

 

The original posts were about Brandon doing a good job drafting late round talent. So even if a guy is on a different squad at this point, for whatever reason, it still means it was a good pick (a talented player), and if they are still in the organization (practice squad) again, they're good enough for the organization to still be grooming them (they weren't complete busts and out of the league, i.e. a bad pick). 

 

But to satisfy you, there are 17 players still on the active roster. Or 1/3 of our roster came from rounds 4 or later. Considering free agency and that the better players are drafted in rounds 1-3 (generally 62% of a team's starters), I would guess that that is probably still a pretty good percentage.

 

Plus, it ignores guys that we got a lot of production from, but for whatever reason (money, cap, wanting to improve the position) they have moved on.

Siran Neal (played 6 years for the Bills), Gabe Davis (played 4 years for the Bills), Ike Boettger (5 years, 17 starts), Levi Wallace (4 years, 52 starts), Tyrell Dodson (4 years). According to you, since they are no longer on the roster, they don't count as pluses for Beane. They automatically get logged as bad picks? Come on. 

 

Seriously, I don't know what you guys expect. How many teams/GMs do you think are finding lots of high-quality starters that last more than 4 or 5 years on a team in rounds 4 or later?

 

Mr. WEO, pick your favorite GM, the best GM in the league and I'll take a look at his rate of late round picks and we can compare.

1.  I don't think Brandon Beane is finding lots of high-quality starters in rounds 4 or later.

 

2. BB does do a good job of finding role players and guys who belong on NFL rosters in the later rounds. He is probably above league average in this regard.

 

3. The problem with finding role players and guys who belong on NFL rosters in the NFL being your greatest skill, is that you have a roster that is filled with role players and not difference makers.

 

IRT players on the active roster drafted 4th or later (not counting UDFA) the Bills have 13 and KC has 13. The Niners have 20. 

 

The Bills have Taron Johnson and Shakir (potentially) as impact players. The Chiefs have Trey Smith and Isaiah Pacheco. The Niners have Hufunga, Dre Greenlaw, George Kittle, Brock Purdy.

 

If you are gonna make a living on late round guys, some of them have to hit pretty big.