Draft grades -- days 3 and 4.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, juno999 said:

Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones are arguably the best at their respective position.  Kansas City is absolutely killing it.  Even when they traded Hill away, which was probably the right call, they got a great return.  

I agree with you.  What are your thoughts on Kincaid?  Elite potential?  I'm hoping the Bills can draft a game changing WR1 and/or DE in next year's draft.

I do believe Kincaid has elite potential. Hopefully no one confuses that with Kelce/Gronk upside. Those guys are the best ever. I think Kincaid can be like prime Gates or Jimmy Graham even. He can be as good, or even a little better, than Andrews is now.

[folz]

10 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

I wouldn't even look at 2023 or 2024 yet.  Too early to tell.  But 2018-2022...kinda meh in the way of reliable starters on O or D (sorry, 6th round kickers don't count considering most aren't even drafted).  And not guys who occasionally started or were primary depth.  

 

Leaves Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Gabriel Davis, and Christian Benford.  Add Milano from 2017 and that's 3 defensive starters, 1 miscast WR2 on offense, and a G they prematurely let go who performed with another franchise.  

 

They're not a great drafting team because more often than not they play it safe and conservative.  That's great if you want a roster with no big holes...but not if you're trying to win the SB featuring a more talented top of the 53. 

 

Well, considering that 62% of NFL starters over the last 5 years (per the link below*) came from rounds 1-3, you probably aren't going to see a lot of high-end starters drafted rounds 4 or later for most teams. You will see a lot of spot-starters, depth players, and special teamers.

 

The percentages for other rounds goes like this (as far as the number of NFL starters coming from that round):

Round 4 10.31%

Round 5  7.47%

Round 6  4.8%

Round 7  3.21%

Undrafted 12.19%

 

And that is not making a judgement call about how reliable a starter they are (like you did in your post). A lot of guys that fall into those percentages for other teams probably wouldn't make your qualifications either.

 

Plus, I think you are being a bit unfair. First, you are automatically excluding Bass and Araiza. You didn't include Shakir (he already has 12 starts and will be a starter this year). You also excluded a lot of players who have started games for the Bills. I understand that you are looking for a certain level of play. But considering the percentages above, you can't really eliminate all of those guys when trying to evaluate Brandon's drafting. You can't look at it in a vacuum. It has to be in comparison to other teams/GMs.

 

My list would look like this (not counting this year's draft yet, obviously)

4th Round: Taron Johnson, Gabe Davis

5th round: Wyatt Teller, Khalil Shakir

6th round: Tyler Bass, Matt Araiza, Christian Benford, Damar Hamlin (13 starts)

7th round: Dane Jackson (he's started 28 games for the Bills)

Undrafted: Ike Boettger (17 starts), Levi Wallace (52 starts for the Bills),Tyrell Dodson (15 starts), Cam Lewis (4 starts), Robert Foster (7 starts), Reggie Gilliam (9 starts)

 

 

*https://sports.yahoo.com/the-nfl-drafts-secret-round-170012115.html#:~:text=In 2023%2C 194 Week 1,taken in the third round.

[Low Positive]

How dare you write a post on TBD giving credit to Beane and/or McDermott! That's simply not allowed here and thankfully the TBD Sherrif's department has come to the rescue. 

[julian]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I do believe Kincaid has elite potential. Hopefully no one confuses that with Kelce/Gronk upside. Those guys are the best ever. I think Kincaid can be like prime Gates or Jimmy Graham even. He can be as good, or even a little better, than Andrews is now.

I believe Gates is on a short list of all time TEs, if Kincaid is like him then we’re gonna be “A OK” for sure.

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Forget the first 2 days for the moment. Can you recall any team having a better day 3 or 4 (UDFAs and invites) than Beane put together this year? Granted, it's too soon to know the final results, but I think several of these guys fron Davis to Andreesson have a real shot at becoming excellent starters. On top of that, we've got very good draft capital for next year and we will have plenty of FA money to spend.

To me, when you say the Bills' window is closed, what you're really saying is that you have no faith in Beane. Sure he's had some misses, but he's had far more hits.

What do you think?

That’s all fine and dandy, but we are not getting the right players at the Key positions in the first three rounds. I think Beane does fine job in the mid to lower rounds, but imo, he does not do well when it comes to the key positions, for example the WR position, iirc during the entirety of this regimes time here they have only drafted one, that’s right, one, WR in the first two rounds, in what, seven years…, is it just me? I find this to be counterintuitive, lol, it’s probably me, 😁🍸🚬

 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, folz said:

 

Of the 53 players that I listed (Beane's picks rounds 4-7, plus UDFAs and tryout guys)

 

-28 players (53%) are still on the Bills roster, practice squad, or PUP 

 

-37 of 53 players (70%) are still in the league (currently rostered by an NFL squad)

-12 of the 53 players are out of the league

-4 players were just cut on Tuesday (so currently out of the league, but could still possibly get picked up).

  So, at the start of training camps this year, 77.4% of Beane's late picks were still in the league.

 

Considering the average NFL football career is 3.3 years. I would think that after 7 years to still have 53% on your roster and 70-77% still in the league must be pretty darn good percentages.

I asked about the 53 man roster.  
 

PS doesn’t count as so few get called up.  Picks Beane let go who ended up on other teams don’t count either because there’s no reason to believe many or all would not have been selected by other teams initially.

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

He gave you your answer.  Use your brain.

 

What is gained in asking a question when the answer was already given? 

see above, Pavlov’s dog..

Edited August 31 by Mr. WEO

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills had to keep cheap guys this year because of the dead money. It’s the same reason that they ran that garbage roster out there in 2018.

Why do people keep bringing up 2018 as if Beane did a bad job that year, or even 2019?  
 

Beans came in and inherited a garbage roster that needed to be gutted and rebuilt.  2018 was the beginning of that process.  Within 3 years we went from a joke to a perennial SB contender where no one on the roster was here prior to McD being hired.  

Edited August 31 by Alphadawg7

[Kirby Jackson]

26 minutes ago, julian said:

I believe Gates is on a short list of all time TEs, if Kincaid is like him then we’re gonna be “A OK” for sure.

He is for sure. His average year, in his prime, is what I’m hoping for. It’s something like 75-80 catches, 900ish yards and 8 TDs (I didn’t calculate it but briefly looked at his numbers). 
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GateAn00.htm

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Why do people keep bringing up 2018 as if Beane did a bad job that year, or even 2019?  
 

Beans came in and inherited a garbage roster that needed to be gutted and rebuilt.  2018 was the beginning of that process.  Within 3 years we went from a joke to a perennial SB contender where no one on the roster was here prior to McD being hired.  

Who said he did a bad job? Go back and read what was written…

[billybrew1]

6 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Forget the first 2 days for the moment. Can you recall any team having a better day 3 or 4 (UDFAs and invites) than Beane put together this year? Granted, it's too soon to know the final results, but I think several of these guys fron Davis to Andreesson have a real shot at becoming excellent starters. On top of that, we've got very good draft capital for next year and we will have plenty of FA money to spend.

To me, when you say the Bills' window is closed, what you're really saying is that you have no faith in Beane. Sure he's had some misses, but he's had far more hits.

What do you think?

First off, as you say, way too soon is not strong enough of a statement. Ask in two years at least. I like the late picks too and I agreed all year we needed them badly (so many wanted to trade up for one WR but they were only half right, we needed both for sure.)  
Second, how do you know for sure we will have plenty of FA money? I have been wondering about that all summer… We still have Von’s contract and now TJ’s and Dawkins’. The last two have to be healthy going into next season or that will crush us perhaps. 
I don’t know about next year’s FAs either, how many new contracts are due? We will let Spencer Brown go, no biggie, but anyone else?

I’m really hoping for a return to excellence next season but things have to happen this season first. TJ is coming up on the age where small players playing big start to fall apart. He has to somehow remain healthy. Dawkins too but we are at least developing some tackle talent I think, but either way, if Dawkins is a no go his contract will be a weight around our neck. Beane has to have drafted much better between the 2022 - 2024 drafts than the Edmunds pick - 2021 (a long time for meh, about a C+ grade overall.)

Then we need that plenty of FA money you are talking about and then we have to nail another draft using those extra picks we you have been talking about: WR, DE, CB, S, DT, S, WR….

We need some very sound players and a couple great ones….

Beane’s tremendous picks so far: Allen. Great picks: TJ, Gabe….

Then it falls to good picks….Ed, Groot, etc….

then meh…with a few stinkers….

C+…… 

[Brand J]

7 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

They have been good at finding talent in the mid to later rounds for years.  I’m glad they stopped trading away so many of the mid to later picks, and I was not happy about the Jets pick swap.  Should have been leaning into the scouting and player development expertise years ago. Better late than never. 

Oh Beane still tries but sometimes teams won’t take his call. If he had got his way and traded up for Cole Bishop like he was trying to do, we likely don’t have Ray Davis. The draft is a crapshoot, no one knows how any of these players will pan out. I’m all for accumulating picks and using them, not trading them away (all-in on a QB being the exception).

[Alphadawg7]

48 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:Who said he did a bad job? Go back and read what was written…

 

All good…Maybe I misunderstood you then, sounded like you were complaining about the 2018 roster in your criticism of Beane.  

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, H2o said:

And this is the difference between us and KC. They drafted Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Creed Humphrey, Tyreek Hill, and Trey Smith. Now granted not all of those guys are there anymore, but they have all turned out to be top tier players and contributed to their run. We drafted Josh Allen. 

This seems pretty unfair statement to me.

 

No argument about Mahomes, Jones and Kelce, but how did the other guys become part of this conversation? If you list Humphrey, Sneed, Smith or Bolton, how can you say "we drafted Josh Allen"? Are you saying than Tre White, Taron Johnson, Milano or Oliver do not belong to the same tier?

 

Jones and Kelce are difference makers we do miss. All others are same guys we draft on regular basis.

 

 

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think when you have a lot of late round picks and UDFAs making your team it speaks more to the quality of your talent than to theirs. The Bills had to keep cheap guys this year because of the dead money. It’s the same reason that they ran that garbage roster out there in 2018.
 

If you have the choice to hit early, or hit late, the answer is early 100% of the time. This team has always had good depth and a balanced roster. Finding quality players has been easy. Finding elite players has proven to be quite difficult. You win championships with elite players. The Bills have 1.

I tend to agree, but would like to some more in depth discussion about this.

 

When people ( @GunnerBill often states the same) use term "elite players" or "difference makers", I'd like to know who do they mean.

 

How many players would you consider elite in 2023? Would you be able to list them?

 

My point is that I would love to see that list and then find out how many of them Beane had actual chance to draft.

Edited August 31 by No_Matter_What

[Kirby Jackson]

26 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

This seems pretty unfair statement to me.

 

No argument about Mahomes, Jones and Kelce, but how did the other guys become part of this conversation? If you list Humphrey, Sneed, Smith or Bolton, how can you say "we drafted Josh Allen"? Are you saying than Tre White, Taron Johnson, Milano or Oliver do not belong to the same tier?

 

Jones and Kelce are difference makers we do miss. All others are same guys we draft on regular basis.

 

 

I tend to agree, but would like to some more in depth discussion about this.

 

When people ( @GunnerBill often states the same) use term "elite players" or "difference makers", I'd like to know who do they mean.

 

How many players would you consider elite in 2023? Would you be able to list them?

 

My point is that I would love to see that list and then find out how many of them Beane had actual chance to draft.

I generally use the Top 100 (regardless of who does it) as guidance for the “elite” players. In theory, each team should average about 3. What you’ve seen though, is the top teams, generally have somewhere between 5 & 7. The Bills had 1 on a few of the lists and Dawkins was like 95 on the other. 
 

In past years, Tre, Milano, Dawkins, Diggs, Poyer, Taron & Hyde could all be considered elite. Now, Dawkins and Taron are on the fringe. No one else warrants consideration for elite yet (Oliver, Rousseau, Kincaid, and Bernard can elevate to that after this year). They also may not develop to that level. This Bills roster is not talented compared to the last few years and is average (at best) compared to other NFL rosters currently. They just happen to have an elite QB. 

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

All good…Maybe I misunderstood you then, sounded like you were complaining about the 2018 roster in your criticism of Beane.  

Nope, I said “that the 2018 roster was garbage because of all of the dead cap money.” That’s the same situation as this year in terms of sacrificing talent to reset the cap. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

 

Nope, I said “that the 2018 roster was garbage because of all of the dead cap money.” That’s the same situation as this year in terms of sacrificing talent to reset the cap. 

I wasn’t saying you didn’t say that, I said I misunderstood your intent as you mentioned while complaining about Beane currently.  So it came across to me initially as if you were equally upset about 2018.  
 

And this offseason there have been plenty of other people ranting about the early Beane years mostly from the “our WRs suck crowd” this offseason because our WRs in 2018 were not good.  Not saying you, obviously I misunderstood what you wanted to convey, just saying why I thought it was more of that because others were doing it previously.  

[balln]

45 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

This seems pretty unfair statement to me.

 

No argument about Mahomes, Jones and Kelce, but how did the other guys become part of this conversation? If you list Humphrey, Sneed, Smith or Bolton, how can you say "we drafted Josh Allen"? Are you saying than Tre White, Taron Johnson, Milano or Oliver do not belong to the same tier?

 

Jones and Kelce are difference makers we do miss. All others are same guys we draft on regular basis.

 

 

I tend to agree, but would like to some more in depth discussion about this.

 

When people ( @GunnerBill often states the same) use term "elite players" or "difference makers", I'd like to know who do they mean.

 

How many players would you consider elite in 2023? Would you be able to list them?

 

My point is that I would love to see that list and then find out how many of them Beane had actual chance to draft.

Creed Humphrey is the best center in the game. All pro almost immediately. Yet we went w boogie.

 

sneed and Bolton >> Milano and tre. Sorry they just are.

milano can get eat up in the run game a bit more. 
 

Kc better drafting. Pacheco in the 6th or 7th?!?? Better than any rb or late round pick beane ever drafted

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I generally use the Top 100 (regardless of who does it) as guidance for the “elite” players. In theory, each team should average about 3. What you’ve seen though, is the top teams, generally have somewhere between 5 & 7. The Bills had 1 on a few of the lists and Dawkins was like 95 on the other. 
 

In past years, Tre, Milano, Dawkins, Diggs, Poyer, Taron & Hyde could all be considered elite. Now, Dawkins and Taron are on the fringe. No one else warrants consideration for elite yet (Oliver, Rousseau, Kincaid, and Bernard can elevate to that after this year). They also may not develop to that level. This Bills roster is not talented compared to the last few years and is average (at best) compared to other NFL rosters currently. They just happen to have an elite QB. 

Nope, I said “that the 2018 roster was garbage because of all of the dead cap money.” That’s the same situation as this year in terms of sacrificing talent to reset the cap. 

Yea largely a good

rough gauge. We target too many culture guys and “smart” and “coach on the field” crap. 
 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Ya Digg? said:

Good luck finding one of those, pretty much ever. Great wide receivers are going to be divas, teams just need to figure out how to handle them 

You are correct.  Finding non diva elite wrs is tough but they do exist.  Rice, Harrison,  Andre Johnson,  Megatron and even Justin Jefferson are out there. Coleman seems fun & grounded and hopefully he & Josh form a great chemistry. 

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

That’s all fine and dandy, but we are not getting the right players at the Key positions in the first three rounds. I think Beane does fine job in the mid to lower rounds, but imo, he does not do well when it comes to the key positions, for example the WR position, iirc during the entirety of this regimes time here they have only drafted one, that’s right, one, WR in the first two rounds, in what, seven years…, is it just me? I find this to be counterintuitive, lol, it’s probably me, 😁🍸🚬

 

 

To be fair, he did spend a 1st on Diggs too, but we obviously need more attention there. I think it will come next season thru the draft, FA or both. As some have pointed to, I wouldn’t rule out a trade near the deadline.

 

Let’s hope some of the “younger guys” can reach elite status. Kincaid is an obvious choice, but I’d like to see Rousseau stay healthy and become a wrecking ball. 

[DCofNC]

10 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Forget the first 2 days for the moment. Can you recall any team having a better day 3 or 4 (UDFAs and invites) than Beane put together this year? Granted, it's too soon to know the final results, but I think several of these guys fron Davis to Andreesson have a real shot at becoming excellent starters. On top of that, we've got very good draft capital for next year and we will have plenty of FA money to spend.

To me, when you say the Bills' window is closed, what you're really saying is that you have no faith in Beane. Sure he's had some misses, but he's had far more hits.

What do you think?

I think there are only two reasonable explanations for this post 1) Blind Homerism or 2) you are/are related to Beane.

 

There hasn’t been a single game played and you are giving him credit for hits we haven’t seen yet and already forgiving the misses you already assume he has.  Sounds typical.

[VW82]

Every year that goes by, my respect for Beane grows. This offseason was easily his best imo. 

 

I'm still dubious of the Coleman pick, but everything else he did was aces. Moving on from aging vets, getting all those restructures done when it looked like we wouldn't even be able to field a team, and yes, nailing the draft. It's way too early to say that last point so definitively, but there's a chance we picked up 5-6 useful rotational pieces in that draft with several of those potential future starters. At this point, it's not an accident Beane keeps unearthing all these mid-late round gems.

[DCofNC]

2 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Every year that goes by, my respect for Beane grows. This offseason was easily his best imo. 

 

I'm still dubious of the Coleman pick, but everything else he did was aces. Moving on from aging vets, getting all those restructures done when it looked like we wouldn't even be able to field a team, and yes, nailing the draft. It's way too early to say that last point so definitively, but there's a chance we picked up 5-6 useful rotational pieces in that draft with several of those potential future starters. At this point, it's not an accident Beane keeps unearthing all these mid-late round gems.

Then you also need to acknowledge, at this point, it’s a pattern of not finding impact players early in the draft.   Something is odd, they do find a lot of guys late, yet continue to whiff early.