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Draft grades -- days 3 and 4.


GreggTX

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Forget the first 2 days for the moment. Can you recall any team having a better day 3 or 4 (UDFAs and invites) than Beane put together this year? Granted, it's too soon to know the final results, but I think several of these guys fron Davis to Andreesson have a real shot at becoming excellent starters. On top of that, we've got very good draft capital for next year and we will have plenty of FA money to spend.

To me, when you say the Bills' window is closed, what you're really saying is that you have no faith in Beane. Sure he's had some misses, but he's had far more hits.

What do you think?

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They have been good at finding talent in the mid to later rounds for years.  I’m glad they stopped trading away so many of the mid to later picks, and I was not happy about the Jets pick swap.  Should have been leaning into the scouting and player development expertise years ago. Better late than never. 

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I think when you have a lot of late round picks and UDFAs making your team it speaks more to the quality of your talent than to theirs. The Bills had to keep cheap guys this year because of the dead money. It’s the same reason that they ran that garbage roster out there in 2018.
 

If you have the choice to hit early, or hit late, the answer is early 100% of the time. This team has always had good depth and a balanced roster. Finding quality players has been easy. Finding elite players has proven to be quite difficult. You win championships with elite players. The Bills have 1.

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43 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

They have been good at finding talent in the mid to later rounds for years.  

 

For reference, here are Beane's post-day 2 picks (rounds 4-7, UDFAs, tryouts)

(I only included UDFAs that made the team, practice squad, or had some impact---sorry if I missed someone).

 

2018                                              2019                                      2020                                          2021

4 Taron Johnson                         5 Vosean Joseph                   4 Gabe Davis                                 5 Tommy Doyle

5 Siran Neal                                 6 Jaquan Johnson                 5 Jake Fromm                               6 Marquez Stevenson

5 Wyatt Teller                              7 Darryl Johnson                    6 Tyler Bass                                  6 Damar Hamlin

6 Ray Ray McCloud                    7 Tommy Sweeney                 6 Isaiah Hodgins                         6 Rachad Wildgoose

UDFA Robert Foster                   UDFA Tyrel Dodson                7 Dane Jackson                           7 Jack Anderson

UDFA Ike Boettger                      UDFA Cam Lewis                     UDFA Antonio Williams            UDFA Quinton Morris

UDFA Levi Wallace                                                                                UDFA Reggie Gilliam

UDFA Cam Phillips

UDFA Mike Love

 

2022                                             2023                                      2024

5 Khalil Shakir                                  5 Justin Shorter                     4 Ray Davis

6 Matt Araiza                                    7 Nick Broeker                        5 Sedrick VanPran-Granger

6 Christian Benford                       7 Alex Austin                           5 Ede Ulofoshio

6 Luke Tenuta                                  UDFA Tyrell Shavers            5 Javon Soloman

7 Baylon Spector                            UDFA Richard Gouraige      6 Tylan Grable

UDFA Kingsley Jonathan                                                                  6 Daequan Hardy

UDFA Alec Anderson                                                                          7 Travis Clyton

Tryout Ja'Marcus Ingram                                                                  UDFA Frank Gore, Jr.

                                                                                                                     UDFA Branson Deen

                                                                                                                     UDFA Mike Edwards

                                                                                                                     UDFA Te'Cory Couch

                                                                                                                     Tryout Joe Andreessen

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5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think when you have a lot of late round picks and UDFAs making your team it speaks more to the quality of your talent than to theirs. The Bills had to keep cheap guys this year because of the dead money. It’s the same reason that they ran that garbage roster out there in 2018.
 

If you have the choice to hit early, or hit late, the answer is early 100% of the time. This team has always had good depth and a balanced roster. Finding quality players has been easy. Finding elite players has proven to be quite difficult. You win championships with elite players. The Bills have 1.

So true, we need a Chris Jones or elite pass rusher which Josh has never seed in his career. We need an elite wr who won't be a distracted diva. And we need a HC who doesn't make blunders. Do that in the 4th- UFA portion and we might finally win a SB.  Josh can't do it alone.

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1 hour ago, folz said:

 

For reference, here are Beane's post-day 2 picks (rounds 4-7, UDFAs, tryouts)

(I only included UDFAs that made the team, practice squad, or had some impact---sorry if I missed someone).

 

2018                                              2019                                      2020                                          2021

4 Taron Johnson                         5 Vosean Joseph                   4 Gabe Davis                                 5 Tommy Doyle

5 Siran Neal                                 6 Jaquan Johnson                 5 Jake Fromm                               6 Marquez Stevenson

5 Wyatt Teller                              7 Darryl Johnson                    6 Tyler Bass                                  6 Damar Hamlin

6 Ray Ray McCloud                    7 Tommy Sweeney                 6 Isaiah Hodgins                         6 Rachad Wildgoose

UDFA Robert Foster                   UDFA Tyrel Dodson                7 Dane Jackson                           7 Jack Anderson

UDFA Ike Boettger                      UDFA Cam Lewis                     UDFA Antonio Williams            UDFA Quinton Morris

UDFA Levi Wallace                                                                                UDFA Reggie Gilliam

UDFA Cam Phillips

UDFA Mike Love

 

2022                                             2023                                      2024

5 Khalil Shakir                                  5 Justin Shorter                     4 Ray Davis

6 Matt Araiza                                    7 Nick Broeker                        5 Sedrick VanPran-Granger

6 Christian Benford                       7 Alex Austin                           5 Ede Ulofoshio

6 Luke Tenuta                                  UDFA Tyrell Shavers            5 Javon Soloman

7 Baylon Spector                            UDFA Richard Gouraige      6 Tylan Grable

UDFA Kingsley Jonathan                                                                  6 Daequan Hardy

UDFA Alec Anderson                                                                          7 Travis Clyton

Tryout Ja'Marcus Ingram                                                                  UDFA Frank Gore, Jr.

                                                                                                                     UDFA Branson Deen

                                                                                                                     UDFA Mike Edwards

                                                                                                                     UDFA Te'Cory Couch

                                                                                                                     Tryout Joe Andreessen

It looks every other Beane & co have hit on some good later round picks. 2018, 2020, 2022 and hopefully 2024 were very good. The odd years were flops.

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1 hour ago, folz said:

 

For reference, here are Beane's post-day 2 picks (rounds 4-7, UDFAs, tryouts)

(I only included UDFAs that made the team, practice squad, or had some impact---sorry if I missed someone).

 

2018                                              2019                                      2020                                          2021

4 Taron Johnson                         5 Vosean Joseph                   4 Gabe Davis                                 5 Tommy Doyle

5 Siran Neal                                 6 Jaquan Johnson                 5 Jake Fromm                               6 Marquez Stevenson

5 Wyatt Teller                              7 Darryl Johnson                    6 Tyler Bass                                  6 Damar Hamlin

6 Ray Ray McCloud                    7 Tommy Sweeney                 6 Isaiah Hodgins                         6 Rachad Wildgoose

UDFA Robert Foster                   UDFA Tyrel Dodson                7 Dane Jackson                           7 Jack Anderson

UDFA Ike Boettger                      UDFA Cam Lewis                     UDFA Antonio Williams            UDFA Quinton Morris

UDFA Levi Wallace                                                                                UDFA Reggie Gilliam

UDFA Cam Phillips

UDFA Mike Love

 

2022                                             2023                                      2024

5 Khalil Shakir                                  5 Justin Shorter                     4 Ray Davis

6 Matt Araiza                                    7 Nick Broeker                        5 Sedrick VanPran-Granger

6 Christian Benford                       7 Alex Austin                           5 Ede Ulofoshio

6 Luke Tenuta                                  UDFA Tyrell Shavers            5 Javon Soloman

7 Baylon Spector                            UDFA Richard Gouraige      6 Tylan Grable

UDFA Kingsley Jonathan                                                                  6 Daequan Hardy

UDFA Alec Anderson                                                                          7 Travis Clyton

Tryout Ja'Marcus Ingram                                                                  UDFA Frank Gore, Jr.

                                                                                                                     UDFA Branson Deen

                                                                                                                     UDFA Mike Edwards

                                                                                                                     UDFA Te'Cory Couch

                                                                                                                     Tryout Joe Andreessen

 

how many are still on the roster

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1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If you have the choice to hit early, or hit late, the answer is early 100% of the time. This team has always had good depth and a balanced roster. Finding quality players has been easy. Finding elite players has proven to be quite difficult. You win championships with elite players. The Bills have 1.

And this is the difference between us and KC. They drafted Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Creed Humphrey, Tyreek Hill, and Trey Smith. Now granted not all of those guys are there anymore, but they have all turned out to be top tier players and contributed to their run. We drafted Josh Allen. 

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22 minutes ago, H2o said:

And this is the difference between us and KC. They drafted Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, Nick Bolton, Trent McDuffie, L'Jarius Sneed, Creed Humphrey, Tyreek Hill, and Trey Smith. Now granted not all of those guys are there anymore, but they have all turned out to be top tier players and contributed to their run. We drafted Josh Allen. 

Mahomes, Kelce, and Jones are arguably the best at their respective position.  Kansas City is absolutely killing it.  Even when they traded Hill away, which was probably the right call, they got a great return.  

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think when you have a lot of late round picks and UDFAs making your team it speaks more to the quality of your talent than to theirs. The Bills had to keep cheap guys this year because of the dead money. It’s the same reason that they ran that garbage roster out there in 2018.
 

If you have the choice to hit early, or hit late, the answer is early 100% of the time. This team has always had good depth and a balanced roster. Finding quality players has been easy. Finding elite players has proven to be quite difficult. You win championships with elite players. The Bills have 1.

I agree with you.  What are your thoughts on Kincaid?  Elite potential?  I'm hoping the Bills can draft a game changing WR1 and/or DE in next year's draft.

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Agree with OP Beane has found good talent late in draft and even accumulated several future late round picks for next year.  I’m rooting for Joe D great story that could reap benefits Ashe gets playing time. May need a Milano replacement sooner than later as his contract only runs another year after this one.

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Yes, we have plenty of good players. We lack elite playmakers, which is why the Bills are good, but yet to find greatness. 

2 minutes ago, Dave in Avon Lake now said:

Agree with OP Beane has found good talent late in draft and even accumulated several future late round picks for next year.  I’m rooting for Joe D great story that could reap benefits Ashe gets playing time. May need a Milano replacement sooner than later as his contract only runs another year after this one.

Joe D was elite. He was also an OG and retired decades ago 😂

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2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So true, we need a Chris Jones or elite pass rusher which Josh has never seed in his career. We need an elite wr who won't be a distracted diva. And we need a HC who doesn't make blunders. Do that in the 4th- UFA portion and we might finally win a SB.  Josh can't do it alone.

Good luck finding one of those, pretty much ever. Great wide receivers are going to be divas, teams just need to figure out how to handle them 

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

how many are still on the roster

He gave you your answer.  Use your brain.

 

What is gained in asking a question when the answer was already given? 

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3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think when you have a lot of late round picks and UDFAs making your team it speaks more to the quality of your talent than to theirs. The Bills had to keep cheap guys this year because of the dead money. It’s the same reason that they ran that garbage roster out there in 2018.
 

If you have the choice to hit early, or hit late, the answer is early 100% of the time. This team has always had good depth and a balanced roster. Finding quality players has been easy. Finding elite players has proven to be quite difficult. You win championships with elite players. The Bills have 1.

We have 3 for sure- Allen,Taron, Milano..

 

But we have a bunch of fringe elites - Dawkins,Oliver, Von, Bernard, Cook, Kincaid,  Rasul and Groot I believe can become 1..

 

Then guys like Shakir, Ocyrus who have the potential.  But have had limited opportunities 

 

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

how many are still on the roster

 

Of the 53 players that I listed (Beane's picks rounds 4-7, plus UDFAs and tryout guys)

 

-28 players (53%) are still on the Bills roster, practice squad, or PUP 

 

-37 of 53 players (70%) are still in the league (currently rostered by an NFL squad)

-12 of the 53 players are out of the league

-4 players were just cut on Tuesday (so currently out of the league, but could still possibly get picked up).

  So, at the start of training camps this year, 77.4% of Beane's late picks were still in the league.

 

Considering the average NFL football career is 3.3 years. I would think that after 7 years to still have 53% on your roster and 70-77% still in the league must be pretty darn good percentages.

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4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

Forget the first 2 days for the moment. Can you recall any team having a better day 3 or 4 (UDFAs and invites) than Beane put together this year? Granted, it's too soon to know the final results, but I think several of these guys fron Davis to Andreesson have a real shot at becoming excellent starters. On top of that, we've got very good draft capital for next year and we will have plenty of FA money to spend.

To me, when you say the Bills' window is closed, what you're really saying is that you have no faith in Beane. Sure he's had some misses, but he's had far more hits.

What do you think?

Bills window is wide open and ya, next year isn't getting talked about enough, we can bring in 2 elite FAs and have a ton of draft capital,  future looks bright 

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The rookies they kept all seem to have promise (they shouldn't have bothered drafting the English kid but it was just a 7th round pick).  I haven't felt like that about the players they've kept in the past. 

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1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

how many are still on the roster

 

I wouldn't even look at 2023 or 2024 yet.  Too early to tell.  But 2018-2022...kinda meh in the way of reliable starters on O or D (sorry, 6th round kickers don't count considering most aren't even drafted).  And not guys who occasionally started or were primary depth.  

 

Leaves Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Gabriel Davis, and Christian Benford.  Add Milano from 2017 and that's 3 defensive starters, 1 miscast WR2 on offense, and a G they prematurely let go who performed with another franchise.  

 

They're not a great drafting team because more often than not they play it safe and conservative.  That's great if you want a roster with no big holes...but not if you're trying to win the SB featuring a more talented top of the 53. 

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I'm just glad Beane finally learned to grab guys like Ray Davis on Day 3 when his M.O. was to take RB's in rounds 2 and 3. Drafting a RB should always give you an immediate impact player from day 1. But they are a dime a dozen still so please, no more day 1 and 2 RB's. That said, I really love Davis' skill set to potentially be the best back we have had in Buffalo since Freddy. 

3 hours ago, folz said:

 

For reference, here are Beane's post-day 2 picks (rounds 4-7, UDFAs, tryouts)

(I only included UDFAs that made the team, practice squad, or had some impact---sorry if I missed someone).

 

2018                                              2019                                      2020                                          2021

4 Taron Johnson                         5 Vosean Joseph                   4 Gabe Davis                                 5 Tommy Doyle

5 Siran Neal                                 6 Jaquan Johnson                 5 Jake Fromm                               6 Marquez Stevenson

5 Wyatt Teller                              7 Darryl Johnson                    6 Tyler Bass                                  6 Damar Hamlin

6 Ray Ray McCloud                    7 Tommy Sweeney                 6 Isaiah Hodgins                         6 Rachad Wildgoose

UDFA Robert Foster                   UDFA Tyrel Dodson                7 Dane Jackson                           7 Jack Anderson

UDFA Ike Boettger                      UDFA Cam Lewis                     UDFA Antonio Williams            UDFA Quinton Morris

UDFA Levi Wallace                                                                                UDFA Reggie Gilliam

UDFA Cam Phillips

UDFA Mike Love

 

2022                                             2023                                      2024

5 Khalil Shakir                                  5 Justin Shorter                     4 Ray Davis

6 Matt Araiza                                    7 Nick Broeker                        5 Sedrick VanPran-Granger

6 Christian Benford                       7 Alex Austin                           5 Ede Ulofoshio

6 Luke Tenuta                                  UDFA Tyrell Shavers            5 Javon Soloman

7 Baylon Spector                            UDFA Richard Gouraige      6 Tylan Grable

UDFA Kingsley Jonathan                                                                  6 Daequan Hardy

UDFA Alec Anderson                                                                          7 Travis Clyton

Tryout Ja'Marcus Ingram                                                                  UDFA Frank Gore, Jr.

                                                                                                                     UDFA Branson Deen

                                                                                                                     UDFA Mike Edwards

                                                                                                                     UDFA Te'Cory Couch

                                                                                                                     Tryout Joe Andreessen

 

Thank you for this effort!

 

Wow, 2023 is slim pickens. 

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