AFCE predictions and thoughts '24

[TBBills Fan]

12-5. Division champs

[mannc]

4 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

McGovern moved positions. Edwards is a bit of an unknown (at least with us). Spencer Brown needs to prove last year wasn't a fluke, and that he can stay healthy...Mitch Morse was our second best OL, and with Diggs and Davis gone, teams will surely stack 8 in the box. 

 

I like our Oline but we probably need more info to say they're definitively good let alone top 3 in football.

I wasn’t just talking about the starting 5…I think we have excellent depth, too, including two very nice young tackle prospects.

[VW82]

9 minutes ago, mannc said:

I wasn’t just talking about the starting 5…I think we have excellent depth, too, including two very nice young tackle prospects.

 

I also like our depth, though to be fair they're all completely unproven.  

[billsfan89]

Bills - 11-6

Jets- 10-7

Dolphins- 8-9 

Pats- 5-12

 

I think the Bills last year were saddled with a lot of bad luck, the Bills last year were probably a 12-13 win team that got really really unlucky. I think this year the Bills will have better luck but a bit less talent at WR/S that will lead to them not receiving that positive regression. 

 

The Jets I think are going to get off to a fast start. Something like 5-2 or so. But I think that the Jets like most teams who are relying on high end injury prone veteran talent are going to play like world beaters early on but they are going to fade down the stretch as injuries and age set in. I think they do if Rodgers is reasonably healthy they will scratch out 10 wins and make the playoffs. 

 

The Dolphins missed their window last season in my opinion. They have a lot of talent at WR and I think Tua is a solid QB in that system, but both sides of the line they are worse on which is going to cause them issues. With the loss Hunt on the offensive line and the loss of Wilkerson on the defensive line it is going to make them weaker on both sides of the interior line. But they are also having their two premier defensive ends Chubb and Phillips are coming off late season ACL tears which likely means they could not be back to 100% this upcoming season or at the very least get off to a very slow start. A bad season from one or both of them along with the absence of Wilkerson is going to lead to a diminished defensive line. 

 

Pats are a year away, they are going to have a rookie QB with a lack luster offensive supporting cast. That's along with a defense that is missing Baremore to injury and trade away Judon both key pieces to a defense that had been strong in recent season. Along with a new coaching staff I think the Pats are just going to be mediocre on both sides of the ball. I do think the Pats might scratch out a few extra wins due to Maye and a new coaching staff providing some spark along with a defense with many players coached by Billy B that might turn in a few good games. 

 

I do think all 4 teams are flawed. The Bills could be lackluster at WR and possibly have some growing pains at LB (due to the Milano injury) and S but I think McD will settle down the defense. But I think the Bills are much less flawed than the rest. Jets are relying on an old QB coming off a serious injury and several other key players who are older and injury prone. Fins lost key players on the OL/DL while also having their top 2 pass rushers on the edge coming off of late season ACL tears while. Pats just lack talent on both sides and have a rookie QB.

[BigAl2526]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Rodgers and Tua don't last the season and the Bills cruise to another 11-6 campaign and win the East again.

Yeah, that's the big issue with goth the Jests and the Fish, though Tua played a whole season last year.  I understand Miami's offensive line is one of the worst in the league.  That doesn't bode well for Miami.  I think Rodgers' body is more broken down at 40 than Tom Brady's when Brady retired.  For both teams, QB health is the key and neither team has great odds.

[Rocky Landing]

Describing Miami as an "offensive juggernaut" is absurd. The Fish started off their '23 season with an impressive string of wins, with an impressive number of points. But McDermott had their number from the get-go, and it didn't take long for the rest of the league to figure them out. Their system was built on super-quick timing routes that required that Tua get the ball out incredibly fast-- which he did. And don't get me wrong-- that's an impressive skillset he has. He had the league's fastest release, and was extremely accurate. That was hard to defend. But, the league figured out that the key was to simply disrupt the timing of the routes, and force Tua to hold onto the ball longer than he wanted. And once Tua was pressured, he folded like a lawn chair. 

 

The problem they have this season is that they have done little to change their identity. One might think that the first thing they would do-- now that they've doubled down on Tua, and the speed game-- is give Tua some better protection so he can adjust to a disrupted timing route. But their O-line may have taken a step backwards with their replacement of center Connor Williams with Aaron Brewer-- the Titan's previous Guard.

 

This article also severely downplays the steps back their defense has taken. It was a lot more than just Christian Wilkins they lost. And their new DC is unproven, to say the least. 

[harmonkillebrew]

I'm not sure how Miami got better. They're basically the same Offense, which McDermott owns, and a worse defense.

The Jets are praying that 40 yr old Rodgers can save them, but will he make that much of a difference for a team that missed the playoffs entirely?

I think its still the Bills division to lose and everyone is just hoping we regress.

[Chaos]

Bills win AFCE with ease. 

[4merper4mer]

I think all three of the perceived division leaders have high potential but all three of them need a lot of health and luck to really be contenders.  The Bills to me are the best positioned to move forward in 2025 when they are likely to have a real OC, but this year’s AFCE winner is not likely to be a true contender.  I agree that NE is 4th.

[billsfan89]

2 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I think all three of the perceived division leaders have high potential but all three of them need a lot of health and luck to really be contenders.  The Bills to me are the best positioned to move forward in 2025 when they are likely to have a real OC, but this year’s AFCE winner is not likely to be a true contender.  I agree that NE is 4th.

 

It is interesting to feel like if this season doesn't work out that the Bills are going to be "fine" as they have a good amount of premium draft capital and a decent amount of cap space to make any additions to a roster that is at worst in need of some pieces but not likely a complete overhaul. 

 

Bills likely are going to have anywhere between 40-60 million in space (with only a few key free agents) entering the off-season and 6 picks in rounds 1-4 along with 2-4 later round picks depending on how comp picks go. So there's room to reload the roster if the Bills aren't able to get it done this year.

[<bills4life>]

5 hours ago, mannc said:

We have Josh Allen and one of the three best offensive lines in football.  The receiving talent is more than adequate, despite the lack of a clear no 1.  Defense looks at least as good as last year. Schedule looks hard, but one never knows how that will work out.  No reason to expect less than 11 wins.

Gotta disagree with you on that one.

[Robert Paulson]

13-4. 

 

The guys we lost were old.

 

Babich brings sone aggressive play calling.

 

Brady and Josh spread it around - the focus changes week to week.

 

Bass goes to IR and we sign a new kicker.

[4merper4mer]

21 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

It is interesting to feel like if this season doesn't work out that the Bills are going to be "fine" as they have a good amount of premium draft capital and a decent amount of cap space to make any additions to a roster that is at worst in need of some pieces but not likely a complete overhaul. 

 

Bills likely are going to have anywhere between 40-60 million in space (with only a few key free agents) entering the off-season and 6 picks in rounds 1-4 along with 2-4 later round picks depending on how comp picks go. So there's room to reload the roster if the Bills aren't able to get it done this year.

I agree with all of the above plus:

 

McD will realize his overall philosophy is flawed and hire a real OC.  Allen’s talent level will attract quality candidates

Allen will realize he needs a true commitment to his craft and his leadership and will take that step.  No more fun only mentality.

 

That should set us up well because at some point soon the Dolphins will be in cap trouble and the Jets won’t have a QB.  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Even if the Jets somehow get one good year from Rodgers, they are still back to square one. Tua is going to show how average he is since he is no longer on his rookie contract and they can’t afford to retain talent. Both teams might be okay for a year or so, but it’s all going to come crashing down. I’d actually be more excited as a Pats fan considering they have 2 QBs w/ great upside. Tua is Tua and Rodgers is old and injury prone. 

[Boatdrinks]

A great season from Josh Allen - one where he is called upon to do a LOT- combined with some good fortune can yield 10 wins. Not sure what that will mean in terms of the division or playoffs, but that seems like the peak of this squad’s capability. Just too many departures and unknown quantities to predict much more. 

[Zerovoltz]

I have it like this:

 

Bill 12-5

Dolphins 12-5

Jets 9-8

Patriots 2-15

 

Bills have tiebreakers over Dolphins.  

 

[mannc]

10 hours ago, &lt;bills4life&gt; said:

Gotta disagree with you on that one.

Well argued.

[CincyBillsFan]

18 hours ago, TBBills Fan said:

12-5. Division champs

This.

[MikePJ76]

I don't know but it seems like the Bills getting to 10 wins would have them in the conversation in the east or in the wild card hunt.  I feel like 10 wins would be a good season this year.

 

I say that thinking Miller is done and the defense is going to struggle unlike any other season in the mcdermott era.  I hope I am wrong.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

I say that thinking Miller is done and the defense is going to struggle unlike any other season in the mcdermott era.  I hope I am wrong.

 

Rodgers and the Jets alone could dip our defensive rankings out of the top 5 or top 10 if they are rolling on offense. That is without even taking into consideration the new pieces we have. Those two games with the Jets will make up over 10% of the defensive stats.