AFCE predictions and thoughts '24

[Inigo Montoya]

I'm hijacking a thread from Brook!  on the Jets message board.

 

Below is an article from the Athletic that has the AFCE win totals a dead heat between the Bills, Jets, and Phins.

 

I have three thoughts on the division this year, I don't have a prediction.  

 

1.  It's great to see the Patriots and their obnoxious, spoiled fans in the basement.

2.  It's going to come down to injuries. The healthiest team of the 3 is going to win the AFCE.

3.  The AFC is stacked again this year. I wouldn't count on a Wild Card for the division runner up.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5732411/2024/08/30/nfl-2024-win-totals-projections-analysis/   

 

(Pay wall.  I recommend The Athletic, best NFL coverage out there)

 

Buffalo Bills
Win total: 9.7

This seems just about right. A team led by Josh Allen in his prime should always be taken seriously. I’m sure, even with several questions about the Bills in 2024, Allen is why they have the AFC’s fourth-highest win total. But the questions are legitimate. The defense could take a real step back due to cap-cleaning offseason turnover and a long-term injury to linebacker Matt Milano. Plus, it’s a new offense without wideout Stefon Diggs or center Mitch Morse. The Bills could struggle with a tough early schedule, but don’t rule out a second-half surge once all the new pieces jell just in time for the playoffs. — Joe Buscaglia

New York Jets
Win total: 9.6

It’s hard to argue with this projection — and fascinating how tightly the AFC East teams are grouped. The Jets clearly have the most talented roster of the three from top to bottom, and if Aaron Rodgers can stay healthy, there’s no reason they should fall short of 10 wins. They had a top-five defense in each of the last two seasons, and the unit is still mostly intact (and could be even better if/when Haason Reddick finally reports). The offense should be vastly improved. Rodgers is obviously a major upgrade over Zach Wilson and last year’s rotation of backups, Breece Hall is fully healthy, Garrett Wilson is ready to break out and GM Joe Douglas did a good job rebuilding the offensive line this offseason. — Zack Rosenblatt


Miami Dolphins
Win total: 9.5

This matches the over/under from BetMGM, so the experts are aligned here. However, the Dolphins are coming off of an 11-win season, and with a light schedule to start the campaign, I lean toward the over here. I expect coach Mike McDaniel to field another offensive juggernaut while unleashing some new wrinkles that most defenses won’t be able to handle. I’m concerned about Miami’s defensive line without Christian Wilkins but also love the system new DC Anthony Weaver is implementing. I think Miami gets off to another hot start but will have to fight to get to 10 wins against what looks like a very tough closing slate (at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets). — Jim Ayello

Edited August 31 by Inigo Montoya

[GASabresIUFan]

Rodgers and Tua don't last the season and the Bills cruise to another 11-6 campaign and win the East again.

[Mike in Horseheads]

Since the Vegas O/U is 10.5 for the Bills, I predict 11 wins for me to cash
😁

[Doc Brown]

I don't like questioning The Athletic which puts up some good content.  However, it's impossible to win 9.7 games.

[SoonerBillsFan]

I'm torn between 11 or 12 wins.  

[chris heff]

I think that assessment of the Bills is pretty accurate, but I don’t understand the Jets and Dolphins. The Jets season is predicted on Rogers, he is 40 years old coming off a serious injury and really hasn’t played football in a year and a half. As for the Dolphins Tua is Tua, the longer he is around, the more DCs will learn his limitations. The Dolphins defense is going to be worse. That offensive “juggernaut” they had last season, mostly against bad teams, is unlikely to be repeated. 

[BringBackFergy]

Brady and Co. showed nothing in preseason. It’s an all new offensive scheme ready to be unleashed Week 1. Allen no longer dealing with that pesky mosquito in his ear (Scientific name Diggsus Bellyacheius). Spread the ball around, hammer it home. Time off the clock. Keep our defense on the sidelines. 
 

Bills with 14 wins. AFCE Champs. Super Bowl loss. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

3 minutes ago, BringBackFergy said:

Brady and Co. showed nothing in preseason. It’s an all new offensive scheme ready to be unleashed Week 1. Allen no longer dealing with that pesky mosquito in his ear (Scientific name Diggsus Bellyacheius). Spread the ball around, hammer it home. Time off the clock. Keep our defense on the sidelines. 
 

Bills with 14 wins. AFCE Champs. Super Bowl loss. 

Diggsus Bellyacheius : Josh Allen

as is

Gabby Greta : BringBackFergy and staff? 🤔

😁

[JP51]

12 minutes ago, chris heff said:

I think that assessment of the Bills is pretty accurate, but I don’t understand the Jets and Dolphins. The Jets season is predicted on Rogers, he is 40 years old coming off a serious injury and really hasn’t played football in a year and a half. As for the Dolphins Tua is Tua, the longer he is around, the more DCs will learn his limitations. The Dolphins defense is going to be worse. That offensive “juggernaut” they had last season, mostly against bad teams, is unlikely to be repeated. 

I agree with this... I think people are underestimating the effect of losses and injuries on the Dolphins D. I think this comes down to is Rodgers Rodgers or is he like Favre was at the very end and does he stay healthy. If he is Rodgers and stays healthy I say Jets have a 50/50 shot of winning the Division if not then they are gonna be toast and not only that but on the hook for a ton of money and looking for a QB. It will be another 5 years before they sniff playoffs and contention 

[JerseyBills]

If Von is back,  and it seems like he is and Coleman has an immediate impact,  which is possible,  his hands are nice, we'll have legit chance at a SB

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

23 minutes ago, chris heff said:

That offensive “juggernaut” they had last season, mostly against bad teams, is unlikely to be repeated. 

 

100% agree. They were only a juggernaut on offense against the teams below .500 last year and I also think this year those bad teams catch up to the game film and play much better defense against them.

 

 

[Billsflyer12]

4-2 in division, likely same as Jets and Dolphins.  Yet, 8-9 wins total with all the changes and a brutal schedule.

 

Put my $ on it and hammered the under 10.5 wins.

[Desert Bills Fan]

I am guessing 9 wins, no playoffs 😢
offense starts slow this year with need to get identity and receivers & line need to gel.

D is weaker and needs the safeties to get healthy and gel.

Last 1/3 rd of the season the Bills find new rhythm and look strong, but man they have a tough schedule.

 

[dma0034]

Think the Bills win 11

Jets win 9

Dolphins win 8

Patriots win 6

 

 

Jets start off 4-1 and then implode. Dolphins are proclaimed pretenders by the media. Pats defense is still decent and they get 6 wins, which is more than predicted.

 

Bills are the 3 seed! They end the Chiefs Three-peat in Round 2 but fall in the Superbowl to the Lions

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Bills will be balanced, technically sound, and go 11-6.

[BarleyNY]

I’m confident that the Bills will be a 10 win team or very close to that. The Jest could light it up or implode. My money would be on the latter, but they’ve got talent and if Rodgers stays healthy they could win the AFCE. The Phins are a good team with talent too. A lot rides on their new defense and play of their OL. Less variance than the Jest, but more than the Bills. Beating them twice would be huge with respect to winning the division. The Pats may have found their QB, but even if that’s true they don’t have much in the way of talent anywhere else. I hate that we play them twice two weeks apart at the end of the season. I’d rather get them early while teams are healthy. Attrition over the year could bring talent levels close enough that they could steal a game if they get some bounces. Hopefully they’ll have thrown in the towel by then and be coasting to the end of the season so we get two easy wins. I can see them with a top 5 pick next year. 

[gjv]

From my perspective, this is the 1st year of Beane's second team to win a championship. He came within 13 seconds with his 1st team to get to the Big Show. With the 1st place scheduel, I see this team winning 9 games at best. Whether or not that makes the playoffs remains to be seen.

[VW82]

At this point, it feels dumb to bet against the Josh/McBeane infrastructure.  

 

That said, we have 60M in dead cap and one of the hardest schedules in the L. Jests and Phins have injury concerns due to age/fragility, but their overall roster talent is at least on par if not better than ours. Plus, it took an herioc five game win streak to finish last season just to make the playoffs. 

 

10 wins seems appropriate and that's probably not enough to win the division, though perhaps enough to make the playoffs. 

[mannc]

We have Josh Allen and one of the three best offensive lines in football.  The receiving talent is more than adequate, despite the lack of a clear no 1.  Defense looks at least as good as last year. Schedule looks hard, but one never knows how that will work out.  No reason to expect less than 11 wins.

[VW82]

7 minutes ago, mannc said:

We have...one of the three best offensive lines in football. 

 

McGovern moved positions. Edwards is a bit of an unknown (at least with us). Spencer Brown needs to prove last year wasn't a fluke, and that he can stay healthy...Mitch Morse was our second best OL, and with Diggs and Davis gone, teams will surely stack 8 in the box. 

 

I like our Oline but we probably need more info to say they're definitively good let alone top 3 in football.