Brandon Aiyuk Staying in SF - 4 Years, 120m

[Saxum]

Front loaded contract and he will probably get hurt soon after starting practicing.

[Scott7975]

Now all you "omg Beane go get him" people know why he wasn't traded.  Also why Beane wouldn't have gotten him if he was.

On 8/29/2024 at 7:29 PM, Playoffs? said:

What a world we live in. I wish I could request that my employer trade me to a competitor, and then just have my employer pay me $120M for the next 4 years. 

 

I mean you arent going to get 120m but have you never looked for another job, told your boss and then gotten a raise to stay?  Hell, I have just pretended I had other offers before and gotten a raise.

[Scott7975]

On 8/30/2024 at 10:38 AM, PonyBoy said:

Diggs feeling better about his future every WR signing. 

 

Diggs will be 31. Aiyuk just turned 26.  Big difference.

Edited September 1 by Scott7975

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Diggs will be 31. Aiyuk just turned 26.  Big difference.

 

Even if Diggs has a very good season in Houston at age 32 I don't think many teams are going to be lining up to give him a long term deal, at most maybe a team gives him a 2-3 year deal where the 3rd year is easy to get out of and that's best case. Likely he's going to sign a 1-2 year contract even if he puts up good production. WR's tend to fall off around age 33-34 historically. So paying a guy going into his age 32 season is not something most teams are lining up to do on longer term commitments. 

[Scott7975]

Just now, billsfan89 said:

 

Even if Diggs has a very good season in Houston at age 32 I don't think many teams are going to be lining up to give him a long term deal, at most maybe a team gives him a 2-3 year deal where the 3rd year is easy to get out of and that's best case. Likely he's going to sign a 1-2 year contract even if he puts up good production. WR's tend to fall off around age 33-34 historically. So paying a guy going into his age 32 season is not something most teams are lining up to do on longer term commitments. 

 

Yeah. He will likely get decent money on a short term contract, but I dont think anyone is going to give him a long term deal.

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 8/29/2024 at 7:30 PM, Roundybout said:

Imagine what happens when they pay Purdy

What? The cap goes up again?

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

On 8/29/2024 at 7:28 PM, H2o said:

They were already scheduled to be like $39M over next year BEFORE this deal. 

 

Serious question, are you new to how the salary cap works?

[Playoffs?]

11 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Now all you "omg Beane go get him" people know why he wasn't traded.  Also why Beane wouldn't have gotten him if he was.

 

I mean you arent going to get 120m but have you never looked for another job, told your boss and then gotten a raise to stay?  Hell, I have just pretended I had other offers before and gotten a raise.

Yeah man, I get how it works… and yes I’ve done the counter offer thing, as much as I don’t like it. I was mostly making an envious joke out of it. I’m happy for Aiyuk… but still can’t believe how much professional athletes get paid. Just insane money. 

[Matt_In_NH]

On 8/29/2024 at 7:03 PM, K D said:

Only $30 mil per. Gave them a discount it seems. I bet the Patriots would have paid him the $33-35 he was looking for

I think the wr market has maxed out and a team finally said enough.  

[Scott7975]

5 hours ago, Playoffs? said:

Yeah man, I get how it works… and yes I’ve done the counter offer thing, as much as I don’t like it. I was mostly making an envious joke out of it. I’m happy for Aiyuk… but still can’t believe how much professional athletes get paid. Just insane money. 

 

Yeah it is insane money, but the NFL makes insane money.  Gotta pay the people that make it happen.

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

 

Serious question, are you new to how the salary cap works?

 

They will have to make some decisions once they pay Purdy. I'm the biggest cheerleader for "the salary cap is just accounting" because it's true. But it doesn't mean you can avoid getting to some difficult decisions at some point. Especially with Purdy you have to remember what most teams do when a franchise Quarterback comes off rookie money is they find a way to make a new contract actually lower the cap hit in the first couple of years. That isn't going to be the case for the 9ers because Brock Purdy is a 7th round draft pick.... he is due to make $1.1m in 2025. Any extension after this season is adding $$s to that number. So it is $39m over BEFORE Purdy. 

 

The two obvious decisions for San Fran are to make this the final year of Trent Williams's HoF career. He will be 37 by the time next season starts. They save $15m by cutting him... though it leaves $19m dead cap. Malik Collins is the other easy decision $10m for a rotational DT and 0 dead cap if cut. 

 

Every other lever you might want to pull either comes with a big dead cap number (and they already have $12m dead cap from Charvarius Ward's void year on the books) and/or significant roster losses. To me the 2025 Niners will look a lot like the 2024 Bills. A team clearly in a re-set with some talent that will keep them competitive but also some holes. I suspect in the next two years Williams, Kittle, Samuel and Hargrave are gone and that is a LOT of talent to take off that team. When Williams, Samuel and McCaffrey missed time together last season you saw their offense not look the same. 

 

None of that is to say they can't still be good. They have a good coach, a good GM, and still have in Bosa and Aiyuk two prime age stars at two of the most premium of positions. But I think this is the last year they are going to be able to have a stacked roster in comparison to the competition. It gets tougher from hereon in. 

 

 

[HappyDays]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They will have to make some decisions once they pay Purdy. I'm the biggest cheerleader for "the salary cap is just accounting" because it's true. But it doesn't mean you can avoid getting to some difficult decisions at some point. Especially with Purdy you have to remember what most teams do when a franchise Quarterback comes off rookie money is they find a way to make a new contract actually lower the cap hit in the first couple of years. That isn't going to be the case for the 9ers because Brock Purdy is a 7th round draft pick.... he is due to make $1.1m in 2025. Any extension after this season is adding $$s to that number. So it is $39m over BEFORE Purdy. 

 

The two obvious decisions for San Fran are to make this the final year of Trent Williams's HoF career. He will be 37 by the time next season starts. They save $15m by cutting him... though it leaves $19m dead cap. Malik Collins is the other easy decision $10m for a rotational DT and 0 dead cap if cut. 

 

Every other lever you might want to pull either comes with a big dead cap number (and they already have $12m dead cap from Charvarius Ward's void year on the books) and/or significant roster losses. To me the 2025 Niners will look a lot like the 2024 Bills. A team clearly in a re-set with some talent that will keep them competitive but also some holes. I suspect in the next two years Williams, Kittle, Samuel and Hargrave are gone and that is a LOT of talent to take off that team. When Williams, Samuel and McCaffrey missed time together last season you saw their offense not look the same. 

 

None of that is to say they can't still be good. They have a good coach, a good GM, and still have in Bosa and Aiyuk two prime age stars at two of the most premium of positions. But I think this is the last year they are going to be able to have a stacked roster in comparison to the competition. It gets tougher from hereon in. 

 

 

 

IMO the obvious move is letting Purdy walk. I know the argument is going to be that you have to pay him because the alternative is QB purgatory, the same argument that came up with Tua, but you have to draw the line somewhere. If Purdy wasn't good enough to win it all with last year's cast of weapons, how will he ever be good enough to win it all? Especially once his salary is taking up a large percentage of the team. Kyle Shanahan has spent his head coaching career getting elite offensive production out of limited QBs, and he should know that paying the latest incarnation of limited QB at the expense of his weapons would be a mistake. The difficult answer is the correct one - they need to keep shooting for a QB that can actually elevate the offense in critical moments, instead of going all in on a QB that appears to give their team a hard ceiling.

[TheWeatherMan]

22 hours ago, Punching Bag said:

Front loaded contract and he will probably get hurt soon after starting practicing.

This is essentially a 3yr 45Million guaranteed contract extension.  Why he would sign this contract is beyond my understanding.  Not a whole lot of injury insurance compared to the other top WR contracts.  Plus there is no way the 49ers agree to pay him $42M in 2027.  They will take dead cap hits of $9M, $4M and $14.5M (void) in 2027-2029.  Major victory for the 49ers management.  

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

IMO the obvious move is letting Purdy walk. I know the argument is going to be that you have to pay him because the alternative is QB purgatory, the same argument that came up with Tua, but you have to draw the line somewhere. If Purdy wasn't good enough to win it all with last year's cast of weapons, how will he ever be good enough to win it all? Especially once his salary is taking up a large percentage of the team. Kyle Shanahan has spent his head coaching career getting elite offensive production out of limited QBs, and he should know that paying the latest incarnation of limited QB at the expense of his weapons would be a mistake. The difficult answer is the correct one - they need to keep shooting for a QB that can actually elevate the offense in critical moments, instead of going all in on a QB that appears to give their team a hard ceiling.

 

I'll be willing to listen to that argument after the season depending on how it goes. I don't know that I have a clear sense right now of what Purdy's ceiling is. They definitely looked a devalued offense when his elite pieces around him missed games last season - a three game skid where they lost to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals scoring 17 in each game and Purdy managing 3 TDs to 5 INTs. Nor did he elevate necessarily in the post-season but I still wouldn't say he was the primary reason for their Superbowl defeat. I can't make my mind up yet what he is and I want to see more. 

 

I am normally staunchly anti the QB purgatory option. I'd pay Dak, I'd pay Tua. Yes the market dictates they get more than they are worth but the alternative is purgatory and that is not a place you want to live. However, you are right that Kyle Shanahan's history is of elevating Brian Hoyer (for a spell in Cleveland), Matt Schaub, Jimmy G and possibly Brock to the very top end of their potential and so maybe they have less to fear from the unknown than most. That said, he wasn't elevating CJ Beatherd, Nick Mullens (beyond a couple of good games at the start) or getting almost anything out of Trey Lance (though I always said that was a bizarre pick because he is almost in every way the antithesis of a Shanahan QB). 

 

The other factor for the 9ers though is that the reckoning is coming, almost irrelevant of Purdy. They are a true vet team. Williams is 36, Kittle is 31, Hargrave is 31, Juszczyk is 33..... they have a bunch of key guys at 28 or 29. Even of they let Purdy play out the two more years of his rookie deal then release him they are going to have to decide what their next step for a chunk of the roster is at that stage. 

 

I don't know. I am not totally against the idea that it might be better to let him walk. I'm happy to revisit in February. 

[JP51]

19 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Even if Diggs has a very good season in Houston at age 32 I don't think many teams are going to be lining up to give him a long term deal, at most maybe a team gives him a 2-3 year deal where the 3rd year is easy to get out of and that's best case. Likely he's going to sign a 1-2 year contract even if he puts up good production. WR's tend to fall off around age 33-34 historically. So paying a guy going into his age 32 season is not something most teams are lining up to do on longer term commitments. 

I agree 100% no 5 yr 4yr deals coming for SD but someone will over pay him for a year or two for sure 

[DCofNC]

22 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

This is essentially a 3yr 45Million guaranteed contract extension.  Why he would sign this contract is beyond my understanding.  Not a whole lot of injury insurance compared to the other top WR contracts.  Plus there is no way the 49ers agree to pay him $42M in 2027.  They will take dead cap hits of $9M, $4M and $14.5M (void) in 2027-2029.  Major victory for the 49ers management.  

They had all the leverage, his only option was to uproot his whole life and go play for a loser team, OR get paid an absurd amount of money to play for a winning team.   He wouldn’t play for half of his market value this year, but he also didn’t want to give that money up.  He’s lucky they kept that big of an offer on the table.

5 minutes ago, JP51 said:

I agree 100% no 5 yr 4yr deals coming for SD but someone will over pay him for a year or two for sure 

Hopkins is better and struggled to get paid.  I don’t think Steph is going to find a hot market for his services.

[TheWeatherMan]

41 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

They had all the leverage, his only option was to uproot his whole life and go play for a loser team, OR get paid an absurd amount of money to play for a winning team.   He wouldn’t play for half of his market value this year, but he also didn’t want to give that money up.  He’s lucky they kept that big of an offer on the table.

This is almost completely wrong, the 49ers had little leverage because teams wouldn’t agree to the trade without a pre negotiated extension.  There’s no doubt he took a hometown discount knowing he’s gone in 2027.  He’s ring chasing with his current team, which I applaud him for.  Not many players are willing to do what he did, especially on a second contract.  $45M over 3 years is not a big offer for a top 5WR…not even remotely close.  

[DCofNC]

27 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

This is almost completely wrong, the 49ers had little leverage because teams wouldn’t agree to the trade without a pre negotiated extension.  There’s no doubt he took a hometown discount knowing he’s gone in 2027.  He’s ring chasing with his current team, which I applaud him for.  Not many players are willing to do what he did, especially on a second contract.  $45M over 3 years is not a big offer for a top 5WR…not even remotely close.  

Your numbers are wrong, he’s not getting 45M, he’s getting 76M for 3 years. On no planet are you getting a WR for 15M a year right now, that’s the basis of the whole problem, he didn’t want to play for the 15M he was going to make this year so he guaranteed himself a pay day.  His option bonuses take effect at the start of next year and make it 76M, they aren’t parting with him and eating the contract before then and it’s injury guaranteed.
 

The 49ers had all the leverage, teams are tapped out at this point in the season AND they had him under contract, his options were limited, he either had to play for 15M this year or sit out and lose it.  The 9ers had to agree to a trade AND he had to go to a team that had room to fit him this year.   That left very few options.   
 

Also, if things continue, his 42M cap hit in 27 isn’t necessarily out of question, but assuming it is, it’s actually better for him to hit FA again or renegotiate.   So he’s coming out with at least 76M for 3 years and got a fat check right now, vs playing for his 15 this year and risking injury/poor performance etc that could have dramatically hurt his value.   Would he get more on the open market? Yes.  Would you really gamble all that guaranteed money, trying to get another 10-15%?  Really not worth it.

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Your numbers are wrong, he’s not getting 45M, he’s getting 76M for 3 years. On no planet are you getting a WR for 15M a year right now, that’s the basis of the whole problem, he didn’t want to play for the 15M he was going to make this year so he guaranteed himself a pay day.  His option bonuses take effect at the start of next year and make it 76M, they aren’t parting with him and eating the contract before then and it’s injury guaranteed.
 

The 49ers had all the leverage, teams are tapped out at this point in the season AND they had him under contract, his options were limited, he either had to play for 15M this year or sit out and lose it.  The 9ers had to agree to a trade AND he had to go to a team that had room to fit him this year.   That left very few options.   
 

Also, if things continue, his 42M cap hit in 27 isn’t necessarily out of question, but assuming it is, it’s actually better for him to hit FA again or renegotiate.   So he’s coming out with at least 76M for 3 years and got a fat check right now, vs playing for his 15 this year and risking injury/poor performance etc that could have dramatically hurt his value.   Would he get more on the open market? Yes.  Would you really gamble all that guaranteed money, trying to get another 10-15%?  Really not worth it.

 

I think the bolded is the critical point. How often is a blockbuster player traded in training camp? I can't remember one? Maybe others can but even if it has happened it hasn't happened much. And it is because once you get beyond free agency and the draft teams have managed their roster pursuant to their cap for this year and their future cap planning for next year and the year after. That tends to leave teams who don't think they are in a contending window who have more flexibility to manoeuvre. Hence New England and Pittsburgh and Washington etc being in the conversation. Whoever you think had the leverage in February / March by the time you get to July the leverage of the team holding the rights only gets stronger. 

[Billl]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I'll be willing to listen to that argument after the season depending on how it goes. I don't know that I have a clear sense right now of what Purdy's ceiling is. They definitely looked a devalued offense when his elite pieces around him missed games last season - a three game skid where they lost to the Browns, Vikings and Bengals scoring 17 in each game and Purdy managing 3 TDs to 5 INTs. Nor did he elevate necessarily in the post-season but I still wouldn't say he was the primary reason for their Superbowl defeat. I can't make my mind up yet what he is and I want to see more.

It’s impossible to quantify everything, particularly with Quarterbacks, but sometimes you know it when you see it.  In the second half of the Super Bowl, I could tell that Purdy was getting rattled and I knew there was no way he was winning that game.  He wasn’t quite trusting his eyes, and it seemed obvious to me that he didn’t have it in him to power through it and rip the Chiefs’ heart out.  To his credit, he didn’t crap in his helmet or anything.  He did a good job of holding it together, but even with all that talent around him he wasn’t winning that game with #15 on the opposing sideline.

 

IMO, the right move would be to trade him and find his replacement on the cheap.  We’ll see if SF has the stones to do it.  If anyone does, it’s them.