Now that the 53 is set, predict the Bills win total

[CSBill]

I’m predicting 13, maybe 14? 

[Fan in Chicago]

6 hours ago, Mister Defense said:

Funny how so many seemed to have gone with the conventional wisdom, often based on the wisdom of national analysts who don't know what they are talking about,  who do not actually watch many of the games that we do, that we see every year, and don't understand how superb this head coach, GM, and players have been, consistently.

 

 

Yea, I will own my take and happily eat the crow. This has been a most unexpectedly great season 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

On 8/29/2024 at 3:40 PM, smuvtalker said:

I've been called an eternal optimist by most of my friends and family.  I know this is going to be an interesting year.  We've lost so many good (and bad) players, many people feel like this is sort of a rebuilding year, and there are several more questions than answers going into this season.  That said, I'm still gonna go with 13 wins,

with the 4 losses coming to:  @Ravens, @Texans, @Seahawks, and @Patriots in the last game of the season, as Buffalo has already clinched the division and the #1 seed, so they will rest the starters.  

 

Can't help it.  it's in my blood....  13-4

 

GO BILLS!

 

You could be pretty darn close 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

It would be interesting to check how many of these posts only predicted 7 to 9 wins, but now saying if Bills don't win SB, they should fire McD.

[Doc Brown]

On 8/29/2024 at 3:45 PM, Doc Brown said:

Nine.  Not having a #1 WR being the main reason.  Also, a lot of turnover on both sides of the ball.

[Kelly to Allen]

Nobody will believe me but I always had 13-14 wins. 

 

Too much continuity, solid rookie class, McDermott runs a solid defense plus Josh Allen is 11-12 wins each year 

 

Add in a healthy Von Miller, that's 13 wins

[SoonerBillsFan]

13-4 or 14-3.  Not sure yet.

50 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

It would be interesting to check how many of these posts only predicted 7 to 9 wins, but now saying if Bills don't win SB, they should fire McD.

I actually said 12, and yes fire McDermott if we don't win the superbowl, esp. With how strong the offense has performed.

[Pete]

14-3.  Gore, Davidson, and Shavers go buck wild.  Buffalo Joe has over 20 tackles.  Cine makes plays

[PrimeTime101]

On 8/29/2024 at 3:15 PM, GunnerBill said:

I am generally out by 1 as well. Been out by two a couple of times. I think 11 wins as well. 11-6 and enough to win the AFC East. 

your pick was safe.  That being said, I don't think any of us would of predicted  10 or less to win the division. Shocking part of the story. 

[Mike in Horseheads]

I had picked 11 as it was what I needed to cover the over 10.5 line on Fan Duel, Thanks Bills!

[gonzo1105]

I picked 11 but posted numerous times that I thought the Bills were Super Bowl contenders 

[Maynard]

On 8/29/2024 at 3:31 PM, Maynard said:

With the signing of Virgil and Cine, I think we now have a good 10 in us. 

You were so wrong you idiot! 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

13-4 or 14-3.  Not sure yet.

I actually said 12, and yes fire McDermott if we don't win the superbowl, esp. With how strong the offense has performed.

 

Yes the offense has been good, but not the defense and that was biggest reason many didn't think the team would do that well this year with all the changes in personal mainly on the defensive side.    Fire McD and highly likely the team will be worse off

[SoonerBillsFan]

36 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Yes the offense has been good, but not the defense and that was biggest reason many didn't think the team would do that well this year with all the changes in personal mainly on the defensive side.    Fire McD and highly likely the team will be worse off

I think an ape could get this team to 11 wins with Allen at the helm.

[BillsFooteball]

4 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

Nobody will believe me but I always had 13-14 wins. 

 

Too much continuity, solid rookie class, McDermott runs a solid defense plus Josh Allen is 11-12 wins each year 

 

Add in a healthy Von Miller, that's 13 wins

You are a very optimistic poster, I definitely believe you 

[Cash]

On 8/29/2024 at 3:08 PM, Cash said:

Now that we know the initial 53-man roster, and the practice squad is set (possibly pending Jalen Virgil), it's prediction time.  This is the time every year that I make my one (1) prediction for the Bills regular season.  My track record is pretty good - I'm generally +/- 1 win from the Bills' actual total.  I don't go game-by-game; instead I try to look holistically at the Bills as a team for the full season.  I do take overall strength of schedule into account, but upsets happen both ways, so I think it's futile to predict the results of each week well in advance.  Likewise, injuries happen, guys have big games here and there, etc.  There's some averaging out, but overall a really good team tends to win more than a fairly good team, which tends to win more than a mediocre team, and so on.

 

So with that preamble aside, I'll go on record:  I'm predicting 11 wins from the Bills this year.  I also think that takes the AFC East and gives us a puncher's chance in the playoffs.

First time I can think of that I was off by more than 1, and I’m thrilled about it!

 

To be fair to me, I think I would’ve picked at least a game higher if I’d known we’d have Cooper by the trade deadline.

[Big Turk]

On 8/30/2024 at 1:27 PM, rayray808 said:

our schedule is brutal, we lost key vets and it becomes a retool year... 6 wins.

 

off season will be filled with coaching and GM replacement questions but the new stadium keeps it status quo.

 

LMAO...brutal huh? 😂 😂😂😂

On 9/2/2024 at 4:56 PM, Matt_In_NH said:

Chatgpt

 

To provide a detailed analysis of the Buffalo Bills' potential win total for the 2024 NFL season, let's break down their schedule, team strengths, and key factors that could influence their performance.

### **1. Schedule Overview:**
The Bills play in the AFC East, facing the New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets twice each. They also face teams from the AFC West and NFC East, as well as a couple of games against teams with similar records from last year.

**Key Opponents:**
- **Divisional Games:** The Dolphins and Jets are expected to be tough competition. Both teams have strong defenses and potent offenses. Splitting these games is realistic.
- **AFC West:** The Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Las Vegas Raiders. The Chiefs and Chargers present significant challenges, but the Broncos and Raiders are more manageable.
- **NFC East:** Games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Commanders will be crucial. The Eagles and Cowboys are particularly tough matchups.

### **2. Team Strengths:**
- **Quarterback:** Josh Allen is one of the top quarterbacks in the league, combining a strong arm with mobility. His play will be crucial for the Bills' success.
- **Defense:** The Bills have a solid defense, particularly in their secondary, although they need to stay healthy to maintain their effectiveness.
- **Coaching:** Sean McDermott is an experienced coach with a strong defensive background, and the continuity in the coaching staff is a positive factor.

### **3. Key Factors:**
- **Injuries:** As with any NFL season, injuries can significantly impact the outcome. The Bills need to keep key players, especially Josh Allen and their defensive stars, healthy.
- **Close Games:** The Bills' ability to win close games will be crucial. Last season, they were involved in several close contests, and their success in those games could be the difference between a 10-win season and a 13-win season.
- **Strength of Schedule:** Based on their 2024 schedule, the Bills have one of the tougher slates, but they have the talent to compete at a high level.

### **Win Prediction:**
- **Optimistic Scenario:** 12-13 wins, if they can win most of their home games and split their tougher road matchups.
- **Realistic Scenario:** 10-11 wins, considering the difficulty of their schedule and the competitiveness of their division.
- **Pessimistic Scenario:** 9-10 wins, if injuries or poor performance in close games hinder them.

Would you like to dive deeper into specific matchups or analyze potential playoff scenarios?

 

And this is EXACTLY why I constantly am telling people that trying to determine how difficult or easy a schedule is based on last year is not only meaningless and futile, it's often times simply wrong by a country mile.

 

Not only did our schedule not live up to it's advance billing, it was one of the easier ones in the entire NFL.

Edited December 31, 2024 by Big Turk

[Cash]

6 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

your pick was safe.  That being said, I don't think any of us would of predicted  10 or less to win the division. Shocking part of the story. 

Didn't surprise me FWIW - I was pretty confident that we’d still win the division even if I was off by 1 on the low end (meaning we went 10-7). My thought process:

-Patriots’ ceiling is maybe 6-8 wins. 

-Jets are being hyped up by media for $$ reasons. Rodgers is too old, coming off a major injury that usually takes 2 years to fully recover from, and is an egomaniacal nutjob. Even if nothing blows up and Rodgers hits his best case scenario, they’re probably topping out at 9-10 wins.

-Dolphins lost more talent than we did due to cap reasons, they were paper tigers even before then, and Allen/McD completely own them. A sweep is all but guaranteed, meaning we get any tiebreaker. Similar to the Jets, I saw their best case as around 9-10 wins. 
 

All of these went significantly under their best case scenario, true. But even if one or more hit, I still think a 10-7 Bills team is 4-2 or 5-1 in the division and wins outright or via tiebreaker. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Cash

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

your pick was safe.  That being said, I don't think any of us would of predicted  10 or less to win the division. Shocking part of the story. 

The thought was the Bills, Jets, and Fish would cannibalize each other.  We should've realized it was still the Jets and Tua was still made of glass.