How do you explain this team?

[NewEra]

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Of course it is

🤣 

Obv mcds fault that the offense didn’t score in the last 18 minutes of the game vs machines and Reid!  OBV mcds fault 

[LABILLBACKER]

What's our 4 year playoff defense dvoa?  Just asking for perspective.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1. The defense pads the stats against awful QBs. The Bills have consistently faced some of the worst QBs in the NFL often times playing the 3rd string QB. It's really remarkable how many times McDermott's defense has faced God awful QBs.

2. The defense and offense is soft. Bills play a finesse defense and offense. It works most of the time and Josh is the great difference maker. When it matters though the Bills get bullied

3. Josh owns Miami

4. McDermott is a fraud and gets outcoached in the playoffs

 

Edited August 29 by Ethan in Cleveland

[julian]

Luck, injuries and McDermott crumbling 

Edited August 29 by julian

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

🤣

Obv mcds fault that the offense didn’t score in the last 18 minutes of the game vs machines and Reid!  OBV mcds fault 

i know you don't want to hear it but it's true

 

here are the postseason offensive and defensive averages broken down into ppg and yards/play with where they would rank respectively according to last year's regular season in parentheses:

 

Offense- 26.9 ppg (5th) and 5.82 ypp (5th)

Defense- 24.8 ppg (30th) and 5.75 ypp (30th)

 

It's not too much to ask of a defensive specialist HC to provide something other than bottom of the league type of defensive production in the playoffs. i'm not saying he can't or won't figure it out eventually. but it's glaringly obvious and has been for some time now tbh where we lack when the playoffs roll around

 

[NoSaint]

A few thoughts- 

 

outside Josh, no one that can take over a moment on the biggest stage. Generally reliable guys but not many superstars at key spots. Compared to KC who has pass catchers and pass rushers of that tier during that run. 

 

Coaching has wilted a few times in big moments. Enough said there. 
 

we see the bills are often battling really hard and overcoming late season adversity - I think sometimes our playoffs feel like they’ve been 8-10 weeks long. Come January the team has looked gassed a few times. 

 

[Billl]

Seems like a combination of a couple of things.  One is that McDermott has no reservations about running up the score against inferior teams.  This leads to an inflated DVOA during the regular season compared to other teams with coaches who let off the gas when the game is under control.

 

Another is that the Bills tend to favor older players who are at their best early in the season and wear down by the end while Kansas City tends to play youngsters more who make mistakes early in the season but improve over the course of the season and are relatively healthier than their older counterparts.

 

There’s also the fact that Mahomes is much more conservative with his running during the regular season than in the postseason.  Nobody here is going to agree, but he’s every bit as effective of a runner as Josh is when he chooses to be.  He simply doesn’t fully unleash that part of his game during the regular season.

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

i know you don't want to hear it but it's true

 

here are the postseason offensive and defensive averages broken down into ppg and yards/play with where they would rank respectively according to last year's regular season in parentheses:

 

Offense- 26.9 ppg (5th) and 5.82 ypp (5th)

Defense- 24.8 ppg (30th) and 5.75 ypp (30th)

 

It's not too much to ask of a defensive specialist HC to provide something other than bottom of the league type of defensive production in the playoffs. i'm not saying he can't or won't figure it out eventually. but it's glaringly obvious and has been for some time now tbh where we lack when the playoffs roll around

 

Correct-  I’ll say it again- McDermott is not without fault.  He’s 💯 part of the reason we haven’t won a SB.  He’s just not the only reason.  
 

so I’ll ask again-  what part did McD play in the offense not scoring any points in the final 18 minutes vs the chiefs?  Was that his fault?  Did that happen to play a part in the loss?  Is ANY team going to beat Mahomes and Reid after not scoring for the final 18 minutes in the playoffs?

 

….. meanwhile his defense got stops on the last 2 possessions….. when the team absolutely needed them to.  
 

but yeah-  the loss was on him 💯  👌 

 

 

[Maynard]

2 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Good but no longer as talented as 5 other AFC Teams and possibly 8-10 teams total.  
 

From 2020-2023 we were a top 5 talented team.  
 

We have 35 plus million tied up in dead cap and to a guy out for most of the season.  
 

 

I’m always hopeful bc of Josh.  But not helping him to the max every year is a crime against humanity.  And I’m beginning to worry we are building an offense around a run game as Josh enters his prime.   
 

We should have drafted Coleman AND Polk. 
 

Should have been drafting 2 WRs minimum every year - we’ve missed on the ones we did - but I’m hopeful on Shakir and Keon.  
 

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we missed the playoffs.  
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we got fully healthy in December and January and made the SB.  

 

If I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet I wouldn’t be more surprised than I am right now.

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Correct-  I’ll say it again- McDermott is not without fault.  He’s 💯 part of the reason we haven’t won a SB.  He’s just not the only reason.  
 

so I’ll ask again-  what part did McD play in the offense not scoring any points in the final 18 minutes vs the chiefs?  Was that his fault?  Did that happen to play a part in the loss?  Is ANY team going to beat Mahomes and Reid after not scoring for the final 18 minutes in the playoffs?

 

….. meanwhile his defense got stops on the last 2 possessions….. when the team absolutely needed them to.  
 

but yeah-  the loss was on him 💯  👌 

 

 

You realize the Chiefs didn't score the entire second half of the AFCCG vs Ravens? It happens ffs

[DapperCam]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

Seems like a combination of a couple of things.  One is that McDermott has no reservations about running up the score against inferior teams.  This leads to an inflated DVOA during the regular season compared to other teams with coaches who let off the gas when the game is under control.

 

Another is that the Bills tend to favor older players who are at their best early in the season and wear down by the end while Kansas City tends to play youngsters more who make mistakes early in the season but improve over the course of the season and are relatively healthier than their older counterparts.

 

There’s also the fact that Mahomes is much more conservative with his running during the regular season than in the postseason.  Nobody here is going to agree, but he’s every bit as effective of a runner as Josh is when he chooses to be.  He simply doesn’t fully unleash that part of his game during the regular season.

How does running up the score impact defensive DVOA, which is what we’re talking about here? The performance of the offense has been on par with the regular season, or even better.

[TheBrownBear]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

A defense that seems to have half its starters either out or playing with three limbs every postseason.

I think this is at least half the story - certainly since 2021.

[Billl]

8 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

How does running up the score impact defensive DVOA, which is what we’re talking about here? The performance of the offense has been on par with the regular season, or even better.

Unless I’m misreading it, the OP’s DVOA rankings listed are overall team rankings, not defensive-specific.  If other top teams are taking their feet off the gas while the Bills aren’t, the Bills are going to have an inflated DVOA relative to those teams.

Edited August 29 by Billl

[nedboy7]

Seems like the usual over simplifications to a complicated situation. No one is willing to budge from their perspective. So another useless attempt even though the OP made a great post.  It’s a combo of injuries and lack of elite talent and coaching in playoffs. And the offense has some blame as well.  

[Goin Breakdown]

Ok this is a strange analogy. I think of it like a band. Seems like the Bands that really make an impact have some crazies in the band. Gn'R for example, just like the Bills, yeah they are great, but Gn'R weren't a bunch of process guys. Lots of ego, lots of attitude, lots of fight against everything set in front of them. 
I know this sounds silly. But I think perhaps we just don't have that touch of crazy  that may be needed. 
None of this can be proven with stats or any facts. Just an opinion given, although not very well

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You realize the Chiefs didn't score the entire second half of the AFCCG vs Ravens? It happens ffs

Yeah, the stacked ravens defense that wasn’t missing all of their Lbers, 2 starting corners, had their best pass rusher relegated to a hobbit and who’s great safety tandem got torched all game?  Definitely all mcds.   I’d have loved to see that ravens d play with Aj Klein, a hobbled Tyrell Dodson and Dane Jackson playing the lions share of snaps.  

 

If thats the only way to defeat the chiefs in the playoffs, they’re going to win several more SBs

 

so again…..was it mcds fault that the offense didn’t score any points in the last 18 minutes?  
 

because every loss is his fault.  

[Mikie2times]

59 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

What's our 4 year playoff defense dvoa?  Just asking for perspective.

I don't have a DVOA specific calculator to be that specific. I do have a EPA one. EPA has some very close relationships to DVOA and many even prefer it.   

 

This is EPA on defense for wild card round or later 2020 to current compared to regular season EPA 2020 to current and the associated delta. The higher the positive threshold the worse they perform in the playoffs compared to the regular season.  Sample size is an issue with this look as the Bills are really the only team with a meaty sample that is up very high outside of maybe Dallas. Hope this helped to a degree. 

 

 

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

Unless I’m misreading it, the OP’s DVOA rankings listed are overall team rankings, not defensive-specific.  If other top teams are taking their feet off the gas while the Bills aren’t, the Bills are going to have an inflated DVOA relative to those teams.

I have both listed. 

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, the stacked ravens defense that wasn’t missing all of their Lbers, 2 starting corners, had their best pass rusher relegated to a hobbit and who’s great safety tandem got torched all game?  Definitely all mcds.   I’d have loved to see that ravens d play with Aj Klein, a hobbled Tyrell Dodson and Dane Jackson playing the lions share of snaps.  

 

If thats the only way to defeat the chiefs in the playoffs, they’re going to win several more SBs

 

so again…..was it mcds fault that the offense didn’t score any points in the last 18 minutes?  
 

because every loss is his fault.  

I don't see the significance of 18mins like you apparently do

 

Again the Chiefs went like 29mins w out scoring in the Super Bowl

 

Here's a thought experiment for you- put our offense or even heck just Allen on the Bengals or Niners or Ravens and does KC have their current dynasty? I say clearly not

 

The flip side is give those teams our defense and KC is going for the 5peat this yr

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I don't have a DVOA specific calculator to be that specific. I do have a EPA one. EPA has some very close relationships to DVOA and many even prefer it.   

 

This is EPA on defense for wild card round or later 2020 to current compared to regular season EPA 2020 to current and the associated delta. The higher the positive threshold the worse they perform in the playoffs compared to the regular season.  Sample size is an issue with this look as the Bills are really the only team with a meaty sample that is up very high outside of maybe Dallas. Hope this helped to a degree. 

 

 

I have both listed. 

😂😂We put the Pats and Colts up there

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Because Buffalo