How do you explain this team?

[BobbyC81]

As many have mentioned, the 2020 AFCCG was the best chance and it was blown.  I don’t know how many years I have left on this earth to die of natural causes, but I don’t think I’ll ever get over ‘13 seconds’.  
 

The Tyreke Hill play was just well designed and executed.  The Kelce play just makes no sense.  The Bills take a timeout on defense and then 2 defenders just let him run right between them?  Was this ever explained as to what went wrong?

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said:

McD’s D sucks when it bumps up against excellent teams and coaches.

 

 

 

1 minute ago, Lost said:

 

It's McD

I would tend to agree but he sure seems to max out his talent in other spots. I'm starting to think it's a combination of him being able to max out talent against average squads, then sort of hitting a wall as that talent level increases. Take those concepts with some injuries and it can explains most, not all of this. Sure, some of it is likely random. 

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

It isn’t just bad breaks. We have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs over the past 5 years and there is enough of a sample size to say it isn’t just a coincidence.

 

Tre White (TWICE), Von Miller and Matt Milano say hello. That is just the beginning, but it’s a long, ugly list. Did YOU chip in as a DB last year? Stuff happens. 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Augie said:

 

Tre White (TWICE), Von Miller and Matt Milano say hello. That is just the beginning, but it’s a long, ugly list. Did YOU chip in as a DB last year? Stuff happens. 

If this is the case, ok. I'm on board with injuries playing a role. But christ, Milano is already out, we are one exceptionally undersized LB injury away from looking pretty darn close to last year. One WR injury away from total depletion. If injuries are the reason they seem like they're already creeping in that direction again and we haven't played yet. You can't have depth everywhere, but LB and WR were not that hard to see as far as potential issues if an injury or two happened and we didn't exactly load up either position with even quality depth. 

[DapperCam]

5 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Tre White (TWICE), Von Miller and Matt Milano say hello. That is just the beginning, but it’s a long, ugly list. Did YOU chip in as a DB last year? Stuff happens. 

Bottom line is that the defense has had one game where they were a big part of the reason we won over 5 postseasons worth of games. That would be the divisional matchup vs the Ravens. We almost didn’t even get to that game because they were a bad bounce away from letting the corpse of Philip Rivers beat them the prior week. I agree the injuries were ridiculous last season, but this has spanned a lot of seasons.

[Chaos]

One one of the scale a team can play all out to win, taking appropriate risks along the way. 
On the other end of the scale, a team can play not to lose, and minimize any risks. 

The Bills adjust between these two poles in inverse relationship to the opponent and the situation. The better the opponent and the more important the situation, the more the Bills play "not to lose".  This ends up in actually losing in these situations.  Against bad opponents in regular season games, we are pretty good at usually (not always) pummelling the bad teams.  This second situation contributes to the gaudy favorable stats in the first post. 

[Ga boy]

24 minutes ago, MJS said:

I explain this team this way: a really good team that keeps getting beat by the BEST team in the NFL (the KC Chiefs).

 

It's really as simple as that.

 

McDermott and Allen are good. Reid and Mahomes are perhaps the best coach/QB combo in the history of the league. The Bills need to stay relatively healthy and bring their A game against them in the playoffs.

This D is now built to defeat Mahomey with more pressure and more LB and CB speed.  Now if we can get Milano healthy and keep everyone else healthy, we’ll take care of KC.

[14774]

How do you explain this team?

 

Billsy

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

If this is the case, ok. I'm on board with injuries playing a role. But christ, Milano is already out, we are one exceptionally undersized LB injury away from looking pretty darn close to last year. One WR injury away from total depletion. If injuries are the reason they seem like they're already creeping in that direction again and we haven't played yet. You can't have depth everywhere, but LB and WR were not that hard to see as far as potential issues if an injury or two happened and we didn't exactly load up either position with even quality depth. 

 

Is every aspect of your life this dismal? 

 

Let’s play some football first. Not just go full freak out mode prior to the opener. 

[NewEra]

54 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey.

 

All of these rankings are regular season only.

 

This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020

 

2020: DVOA 3rd      

2021:  DVOA 2nd      

2022: DVOA 1st          

2023: DVOA 3rd        

 

- 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo)

- 2021  2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) 

- 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th)

- 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th)

 

No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. 

 

Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented.  

 

In this time our defense has ranked (in order)

 

2020: 11th

2021: 1st

2022: 2nd

2023: 12th

 

-Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. 

-We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later)

 

The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. 

 

Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right?

 

Ok, well then how do we explain....

 

-what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round?

-how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs?

-what happens in the regular season vs KC?

 

  Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs

 

 

Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings

 

-Winningest team in the NFL during this time

-Witch of a GM in Beane

 

The talent level has to be very high?

 

Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so.  This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020.

 

 

-So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with).

-Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) 

-We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason.

-We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card

-All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time 

 

Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. 

 

HELP ME UNDERSTAND!

 

 

 

Players not making enough plays- coaches getting out coached- injuries.  Combination of all 3 is why we are what we are.  I don’t think this is very hard to understand.  Watch the games-  it’s pretty obvious to me.  
 

those that think there is one reason we haven’t won a SB don’t understand the game properly.  Our season hasn’t ended 4 years in a row because of one thing

[Dr.Sack]

2020: Defense given 9-0 lead goes on to give up 38 points after 1st Qtr.

2021: Defense given 36-33 lead with 13 seconds to go. Couldn’t defend 40 yards of field. 
2022: Damar Hamlin / Blizzards / emotionally drained team / Defense decimated by injuries

2023: Tyler Bass / AJ Klein / Defense decimated by injuries

[NewEra]

7 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Bottom line is that the defense has had one game where they were a big part of the reason we won over 5 postseasons worth of games. That would be the divisional matchup vs the Ravens. We almost didn’t even get to that game because they were a bad bounce away from letting the corpse of Philip Rivers beat them the prior week. I agree the injuries were ridiculous last season, but this has spanned a lot of seasons.

So mcd, who wasn’t the defensive play caller most seasons, is the only reason we haven’t won a SB

[hondo in seattle]

I think the OP brings up some excellent divergent data that's hard to explain.

 

While this isn't a complete explanation, I will say this:

 

• If the Bills didn't limp into the last two playoffs with injuries and other significant events (Tops shooting, Damar's death and resurrection...), I think the recent Bills story would be different.
• If the Chiefs didn't have a generational lead trio (HC, DC, and QB), the story would be different. 

And if both those things didn't happen (if the Bills entered the playoffs healthy and the Chiefs only had Reid but not Spags and Mahomes), we'd all be praising Beane and McD as the best GM/HC combo in Bills history.  

 

 

[NewEra]

Just now, Dr.Sack said:

2020: Defense given 9-0 lead goes on to give up 38 points after 1st Qtr.

2021: Defense given 36-33 lead with 13 seconds to go. Couldn’t defend 40 yards of field. 
2022: Damar Hamlin / Blizzards / emotionally drained team / Defense decimated by injuries

2023: Tyler Bass / AJ Klein / Defense decimated by injuries

2023-  offense doesn’t score a point in the last 18:23 of the game……. Not part of the equation?  Interesting

[Mikie2times]

Just now, Augie said:

 

Is every aspect of your life this dismal? 

 

Let’s play some football first. Not just go full freak out mode prior to the opener. 

I'm posting on a Bills forum about the Bills. You're picking on a Bills fans life on a Bills forum as being dismal because what, you don't like this topic ? I'm sure you can focus on the WR's are way better this year thread if you don't like this one. 

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

It's McD

Of course it is

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

I'm posting on a Bills forum about the Bills. You're picking on a Bills fans life on a Bills forum as being dismal because what, you don't like this topic ? I'm sure you can focus on the WR's are way better this year thread if you don't like this one. 

 

“We” are going to play the games, and we will see how it goes. I trust that WR is a high priority. How and when that happens, I don’t know. 

[Logic]

Thanks for the post. It's a good one, and a great question.

I think if anyone knows the answer definitively, they ought to rush to One Bills Drive and share their wisdom with Beane and Co, because I'm sure they'd love to hear it.

To put it simply: The Bills have been the second best team in the AFC the past four years. Unfortunately, the FIRST best team in the AFC has been standing in their way that whole time. That team has a HOF QB, too, but they ALSO have a HOF head coach, and one can argue that that has made the difference.

I can't answer the question of why our defense folds in the playoffs -- though bad injury luck has surely had something to do with it. I can't answer the question of why they can't seem to kick the door down, summit the mountain, whatever you want to say...

The best I can say is that this Bills team is the modern version of Peyton Manning's Colts teams. Hall of Fame quarterback, and consistently a powerhouse in the AFC. Unfortunately, their run of greatness coincided with a SUPERIOR run of greatness by a HOF QB/coach combo. That's what I think is happening here.

Sure, there's the loss to the Bengals. I'll never know how much to take from that game, because the intangibles of our team were so funky at that time after the exhaustion of Hamlin/deadly blizzard/moved games/Kim Pegula. Mostly, though, it's been the Chiefs standing in our way.

By and large, I just think we're a great team who can't seem to get past an even greater team. And yes, the only way the Bills will likely EVER win a championship in the Josh Allen era is if the defense can figure out a way to perform in the postseason the way they perform in the regular season. Can they? That's THE question, in my mind. Josh Allen will almost always get the job done in the clutch -- or at least perform well enough for a Bills win. Can the defense hold up its end of the bargain in January and February? Where for art thou, Bobby Babich?

Edited August 29 by Logic

[BillsFan130]

Great work with the analytics- To me it is pretty simple at least in regards to the Chiefs:

 

The chiefs best players in key positions step up. (Mahomes, Kelce. Chris Jones, Sneed etc)

 

The only player that steps up for the Bills is Josh. And on top of that, we don't really have elite talent outside of Josh .

 

Combine that with andy reid being one of the best offensive minded coaches of all time facing off against Mcdermott who tends to show that the big moments get the best of him, the end result is the 0-3 in the playoffs against KC

Edited August 29 by BillsFan130

[DapperCam]

26 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

2020: Defense given 9-0 lead goes on to give up 38 points after 1st Qtr.

2021: Defense given 36-33 lead with 13 seconds to go. Couldn’t defend 40 yards of field. 
2022: Damar Hamlin / Blizzards / emotionally drained team / Defense decimated by injuries

2023: Tyler Bass / AJ Klein / Defense decimated by injuries

2019: Defense given a 16-0 lead allows Texans scores on 3 straight drives beginning at the end of the 3rd quarter. Allowed Texans to convert a 3rd and 18 on the game winning OT drive.