bobobonators Posted August 30 Posted August 30 On 8/28/2024 at 7:04 PM, Mikie2times said: DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey. All of these rankings are regular season only. This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020 2020: DVOA 3rd 2021: DVOA 2nd 2022: DVOA 1st 2023: DVOA 3rd - 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo) - 2021 2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) - 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th) - 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th) No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented. In this time our defense has ranked (in order) 2020: 11th 2021: 1st 2022: 2nd 2023: 12th -Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. -We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later) The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right? Ok, well then how do we explain.... -what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round? -how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs? -what happens in the regular season vs KC? Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings -Winningest team in the NFL during this time -Witch of a GM in Beane The talent level has to be very high? Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so. This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020. -So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with). -Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) -We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason. -We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card -All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND! Couple of things about sports that I feel are appropriate in this thread: 1. Not everything can be measured and made into a stat. There’s a mental/psychological component to human performance in athletics. When this team makes the playoffs we have folded under the pressure of the moment. That’s not due to a lack of talent - it’s because of the mental/psychological component not rising to the same level as our physical talents. 2. Luck. Yes, you make your own luck the majority of time. If you do things right and perform at a high level, more often than not you will come out on the winning end regardless of bad bounces/breaks. But there are a few times where you can do a lot of things right and still catch a brutal break. We’ve had a couple of those in the playoffs during this run. Bad timing. 2 Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted August 30 Posted August 30 16 hours ago, Billl said: In 2021, Buffalo went 12-7 overall. They outscored opponents by nearly 23 PPG in their wins. The Chiefs have won the Super Bowl the past two seasons while winning exactly one game by more than 23 points. McDermott will absolutely run up the score when he can. I’m certainly not saying there’s anything wrong with that, just that it exists. Even in the postseason, you saw Buffalo score 14 points in the fourth quarter against the Patriots to win by 30. The previous season when Buffalo was down 38-15 with 5 minutes left of the AFCCG, Kansas City shut it down, and the Bills scored a garbage time TD and FG. you are just making assumptions. Are the Bills running up the score or just clicking on all cylinders? When you have a defense that is top 5 in the regular season paired with a top 5 offense the result is rather expected. A lot of blow out wins. The 2021 year you reference featured a top 5 offense in both scoring and yards and the #1 defense in both scoring and yards. The Chiefs in the Mahomes era have never paired a top 5 offense or defense. They have had plenty of top 5 offenses, up till last season. Had the Chiefs had a great regular season defense we would have seen more blow out wins by them. Again how do you quantify letting off the gas vs. just running out of juice? You really can’t quantify it. You can only guess and make poor assumptions. Did the the Chiefs let off the gas in the AFC Championship game when they couldn’t score for the entire second half? Was there game plan to really not try and score for an entire half? Or is it more likely the offense ran out of juice and the defense tightened up? Quote
ganesh Posted August 30 Posted August 30 16 hours ago, thewookie1 said: I disagree, I don't think Kelce become a complete non-factor or anything but even marginal improvement may have given us the slight boost we needed to win the game. Kelce was quite literally wide open on general plays without him even needing much effort; Bernard would of at least gave him a challenge Our pass rush has to get to Mahomes. It is our weakest link on this defense when we are in the Playoffs. 1 Quote
Buffalo Boy Posted August 30 Posted August 30 8 hours ago, JohnNord said: The Texans game is the definition of “Sugar High Josh.” That and a fluke missed sack by Milano are the reasons they lost the football game. Disagree In general, Josh playing in his first playoff game did more good than bad. There were a couple dropped passes , one at the 4 or 5 yard line that Josh placed perfectly ( can’t remember receiver) I swear there was also a dropped TD. Also, that was the Cody Ford blindside block call in OT game. The next year the NFL was using the same play as a case study for a legal block. Let’s not mention the TD taken away at the beginning of the second half. Quote
JohnNord Posted August 30 Posted August 30 1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said: Disagree In general, Josh playing in his first playoff game did more good than bad. There were a couple dropped passes , one at the 4 or 5 yard line that Josh placed perfectly ( can’t remember receiver) I swear there was also a dropped TD. Also, that was the Cody Ford blindside block call in OT game. The next year the NFL was using the same play as a case study for a legal block. Let’s not mention the TD taken away at the beginning of the second half. Some of this is true. I remember John Brown and Duke Williams not coming up with receptions. But not sure how you can watch that game and not come away with the realization that Josh was pressing. This is “Sugar High Josh”. He was completely reckless. His legs is what help take the game to OT. Had he just relaxed and taken what was given to him, rather than forcing the ball to Pat DiMarco or trying an horrible lateral to Dawson Knox late in the game. His fumbles and failure to generate points allowed Houston to climb back in. To your point - I do believe that Josh and the entire team learned from this failure 2 1 Quote
Buffalo Boy Posted August 30 Posted August 30 20 minutes ago, JohnNord said: Some of this is true. I remember John Brown and Duke Williams not coming up with receptions. But not sure how you can watch that game and not come away with the realization that Josh was pressing. This is “Sugar High Josh”. He was completely reckless. His legs is what help take the game to OT. Had he just relaxed and taken what was given to him, rather than forcing the ball to Pat DiMarco or trying an horrible lateral to Dawson Knox late in the game. His fumbles and failure to generate points allowed Houston to climb back in. To your point - I do believe that Josh and the entire team learned from this failure In terms of Josh, I don’t disagree he was on 11😜 . It was to be expected in his first playoff game and I gave him grace at the time. I still felt like he did enough and when stuff started going sideways he felt it was his duty to make something happen. Everyone was baggging on him for the lateral the next day, including the national narrative. Mahomes does that and he’s being magical?!?!. It was a good experience for the whole team and a young team going to the playoffs usually goes through growing pains. It’s the seven years later with nothing to show for it that s concerning. Quote
Billl Posted August 30 Posted August 30 17 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: you are just making assumptions. Are the Bills running up the score or just clicking on all cylinders? When you have a defense that is top 5 in the regular season paired with a top 5 offense the result is rather expected. A lot of blow out wins. The 2021 year you reference featured a top 5 offense in both scoring and yards and the #1 defense in both scoring and yards. The Chiefs in the Mahomes era have never paired a top 5 offense or defense. They have had plenty of top 5 offenses, up till last season. Had the Chiefs had a great regular season defense we would have seen more blow out wins by them. Again how do you quantify letting off the gas vs. just running out of juice? You really can’t quantify it. You can only guess and make poor assumptions. Did the the Chiefs let off the gas in the AFC Championship game when they couldn’t score for the entire second half? Was there game plan to really not try and score for an entire half? Or is it more likely the offense ran out of juice and the defense tightened up? You’re right. It’s the Chiefs that keep “running out of juice”. Funny how they managed to find an extra drop with 0:13 left and then again in overtime. And then they found some more against the Bengals in the 2022 AFCCG…and then again on the last drive of the Super Bowl against the Eagles. They were clearly out of said juice against the Ravens when they won the 2023 AFCCG before running out again in the Super Bowl…right before they scored at the end of regulation to tie…and then scored a juiceless TD in OT to win yet another Lombardi. So now that we know that my theory was wrong, what’s your answer? How do the Buffalo Bills consistently manage to be the only team to have good players? How do they just keep “clicking on all cylinders” while other teams are “just running out of juice”? What is the secret to pairing this unstoppable force of an offense with an immovable object on defense, and why do they keep losing in the playoffs to inferior teams who clearly are incapable of running up the score during garbage time of regular season games? Quote
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted August 30 Posted August 30 6 minutes ago, Billl said: You’re right. It’s the Chiefs that keep “running out of juice”. Funny how they managed to find an extra drop with 0:13 left and then again in overtime. And then they found some more against the Bengals in the 2022 AFCCG…and then again on the last drive of the Super Bowl against the Eagles. They were clearly out of said juice against the Ravens when they won the 2023 AFCCG before running out again in the Super Bowl…right before they scored at the end of regulation to tie…and then scored a juiceless TD in OT to win yet another Lombardi. So now that we know that my theory was wrong, what’s your answer? How do the Buffalo Bills consistently manage to be the only team to have good players? How do they just keep “clicking on all cylinders” while other teams are “just running out of juice”? What is the secret to pairing this unstoppable force of an offense with an immovable object on defense, and why do they keep losing in the playoffs to inferior teams who clearly are incapable of running up the score during garbage time of regular season games? nobody knows the answer. That’s what I’m trying to tell you. You seem convinced that it’s because Sean McDermott is running up the score while he could be letting off the gas pedal. I’ve already pointed out the stats that show that when you have a top five offense and a top five defense, gee whiz, you’re gonna win more games in a route. That should not be hard to figure. The Chiefs have never had that benefit in the Mahomes era largely because their defense has never been top five until this last year. So no surprise that even with the current chief dynasty, they’ve never had a point differential greater than 150 while the Bills have exceeded 160 twice. and I was being sarcastic about the Chiefs, letting up on the gas pedal of course. Just like I’m sure they didn’t let up on the gas pedal when they lost the AFC championship to the Bengals because they could only score like 3 points in the second half. Mahomes just crapped the bed. It happens. what I was really asking for is some sort of concrete evidence to support your theory. I just don’t think that actual data is out there. It would be impossible to have really. 1 Quote
finn Posted August 30 Posted August 30 Run the past five years three more times (like in poker) and the Bills get to the Super Bowl at least twice run. It's just fluky probability at work, not something rotten about the Bills or something magical about KC, which could have lost any of three SBs it won. In that same series of re-runs, they wouldn't win another three, I don't think; maybe they don't get to the SB at all. They haven't had ridiculous injuries like the Bills, or weird stuff happen, like the Hamlin thing, or meet the wrong team at the wrong time. Patience. With a DVOA track record like that, regression to the mean = the Bills get to the Super Bowl multiple times in the next five years. Quote
Billsatlastin2018 Posted August 31 Posted August 31 On 8/28/2024 at 8:04 PM, Mikie2times said: -Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) -We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason. -We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card -All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND! What is clearly not right is the total inability to defend in the most critical of playoff moments. When you’re not playing the stiffs, bums and also rans of the NFL- rather the best, the D folds like a cheap suit. 2020- Outclassed at Arrowhead 38-24, giving up 439 yards! After a brief 9-0 Q1 lead, the next 2 Quarters were KC 31-6! Game over. On McD as the D ‘genius’. 2021- 13 Seconds. The D gave up 552 yards!!! The worst Playoff Coaching job in NFL history! The worst choke job by a HC in 13 seconds of NFL History. ALL ON McD! 2022- Embarassed & Unprepared by Cinci…at Home… in the Snow! NEVER in it. D gives up 412 yards! 2023- KNOWING THAT YOUR D FUBARS EVERY CRITICAL GAME, you are 100% exercising the correct formula to have one last long drive v.s. KC. Your D can’t stop almost any KC drive (361 yards), so you must use the game plan v.s. the Oct 2, 2022 Season Winning Ravens game at Baltimore. That is, bleed every KC TO and use almost all the time- which they were doing. Needing one more First Down to accomplish that, they go rogue script followed by the idiot kicker shanking. To me, that was on McD to remind Allan to do that. Because,you can’t EVER trust the Defense. I need to see Defensive competence against the host of good teams on the regular schedule this year, to give me any confidence, this terrible losing factor has been changed, should they make the Playoffs. Quote
Don Otreply Posted August 31 Posted August 31 On 8/28/2024 at 8:17 PM, SCBills said: Pretty easy actually.. Allen is the only player we have who steps up in the brightest moments. Everyone else, so far, plays at the same level or chokes. Compared to a team that collectively steps up in the Playoffs around Mahomes. Injuries play a part too, but that just can’t be the excuse when it’s every year thus far. Agree, it comes down to our HC & GMs vision of team building, they do a good job, but outside of Josh Allen they have yet to do a great job of acquiring the right players at the key positions, on offense we are always one or two quality WRs short, and miss on “D” line guys, ours guys are good, but not consistent enough to be game changers with regularity, this is what we are missing, jmo. That and some basic scheme flexibility, Quote
Augie Posted August 31 Posted August 31 On 8/30/2024 at 1:48 AM, ganesh said: Our pass rush has to get to Mahomes. It is our weakest link on this defense when we are in the Playoffs. Hard to argue with that (unless another group is devastated by injury). I’m hoping for Von to give us something meaningful, Ed to give us some pressure from the inside, Solomon to be a surprisingly useful part time player, and most importantly I’m hoping Rousseau puts it all together and becomes a BEAST this year. He looked more powerful and impactful in his few preseason snaps. I know, you can’t tell anything from that, but a guy can hope. Quote
90sBills Posted August 31 Posted August 31 On 8/30/2024 at 6:11 AM, Buffalo Boy said: Everyone was baggging on him for the lateral the next day, including the national narrative. Mahomes does that and he’s being magical?!?!. If it works it’s magical. If it doesn’t it’s idiotic. There’s a fine, but well defined, line between the two scenarios. 16 hours ago, finn said: Patience. With a DVOA track record like that, regression to the mean = the Bills get to the Super Bowl multiple times in the next five years. Yeah NFL football works exactly like poker. I’m looking forward to those multiple Super Bowl appearances in the next 5 years. Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted August 31 Posted August 31 On 8/28/2024 at 5:04 PM, Mikie2times said: DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey. All of these rankings are regular season only. This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020 2020: DVOA 3rd 2021: DVOA 2nd 2022: DVOA 1st 2023: DVOA 3rd - 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo) - 2021 2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) - 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th) - 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th) No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented. In this time our defense has ranked (in order) 2020: 11th 2021: 1st 2022: 2nd 2023: 12th -Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. -We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later) The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right? Ok, well then how do we explain.... -what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round? -how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs? -what happens in the regular season vs KC? Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings -Winningest team in the NFL during this time -Witch of a GM in Beane The talent level has to be very high? Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so. This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020. -So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with). -Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) -We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason. -We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card -All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND! Injuries have not helped. Frazier garbage soft as Charmin playoff D did not help. Not being able to run the ball most seasons has not helped. Tragic and Traumatic events in 2022 didn’t help. The coin toss didn’t help. But if you really want to narrow it down to the biggest issue IMHO as why we have exited too early the last 4 seasons…it was because we were not winning the physicality battle and we weren’t winning enough in the trenches. 2 Quote
Repulsif Posted August 31 Posted August 31 to this question, my quick answer is playoffs gameplanning and coaching (didn't read the 5 pages sorry) 1 Quote
K-9 Posted August 31 Posted August 31 One word at a time. Sometimes slowly, so Jets fans can understand. Quote
JohnNord Posted August 31 Posted August 31 1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said: Injuries have not helped. Frazier garbage soft as Charmin playoff D did not help. Not being able to run the ball most seasons has not helped. Tragic and Traumatic events in 2022 didn’t help. The coin toss didn’t help. But if you really want to narrow it down to the biggest issue IMHO as why we have exited too early the last 4 seasons…it was because we were not winning the physicality battle and we weren’t winning enough in the trenches. I’d completely agree with your point on physicality on both sides of the ball in 2021 and 2023. But this past January the OL was decent with running the ball and protected Josh fairly well sans the missed throw to Shakir. But the common denominator has been a failure to pressure the QB in the post season. The numbers that Mahomes and Burrow put up on the defense in the postseason is disgusting and I think it starts with a lack of pass rush. Whether it’s Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Greg Rosseau, Ed Oliver, or AJ Epinesa the Defensive Line has been invisible in the biggest moments. The guy who was signed to be their “closer” has been hampered by injuries. Again…crappy luck 2 Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted August 31 Posted August 31 5 minutes ago, JohnNord said: I’d completely agree with your point on physicality on both sides of the ball in 2021 and 2023. But this past January the OL was decent with running the ball and protected Josh fairly well sans the missed throw to Shakir. But the common denominator has been a failure to pressure the QB in the post season. The numbers that Mahomes and Burrow put up on the defense in the postseason is disgusting and I think it starts with a lack of pass rush. Whether it’s Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Greg Rosseau, Ed Oliver, or AJ Epinesa the Defensive Line has been invisible in the biggest moments. The guy who was signed to be their “closer” has been hampered by injuries. Again…crappy luck I agree and it’s what I meant by not winning in the trenches. When teams have beaten Mahomes in the postseason it’s because they have gotten to him, and that just isn’t something we have been able to do much of at all in the playoffs against Mahomes. I will say I strongly believe had Bernard and/or Milano been able to play this year we probably win that game. KC feasted attacking our depleted LB group and still was a close game. 1 Quote
TBBills Fan Posted August 31 Posted August 31 On 8/28/2024 at 8:20 PM, Simon said: A defense that seems to have half its starters either out or playing with three limbs every postseason. This right here. Our defense was a mash unit come playoff time. Quote
NewEra Posted August 31 Posted August 31 7 minutes ago, JohnNord said: I’d completely agree with your point on physicality on both sides of the ball in 2021 and 2023. But this past January the OL was decent with running the ball and protected Josh fairly well sans the missed throw to Shakir. But the common denominator has been a failure to pressure the QB in the post season. The numbers that Mahomes and Burrow put up on the defense in the postseason is disgusting and I think it starts with a lack of pass rush. Whether it’s Mario Addison, Jerry Hughes, Greg Rosseau, Ed Oliver, or AJ Epinesa the Defensive Line has been invisible in the biggest moments. The guy who was signed to be their “closer” has been hampered by injuries. Again…crappy luck Agreed- pass rush hasn’t shown up. Rousseau and Oliver are very good players that could become great….but they need to make plays when we need them to. Before his injury, Von did that for us. He was a closer and won games for us in the 4th qtr. That fateful thanksgiving day game had such a monumental negative impact on our 22 and 23 seasons. Rousseau has improved every season and this season looks no different. He looked like a monster vs Pittsburgh and has all the physical ability to become elite. The guy will make 28m+ aav if he can show out in this upcoming playoff. If our pash rush doesn’t show up in the playoffs this year, our season will undoubtedly end in the same fashion. An L. 1 Quote
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