How do you explain this team?

[BillsVet]

36 minutes ago, NewEra said:

We had the weapons in the past and only lived up to their potential in one season ending loss, 13 seconds.  19- they failed.  20, the O failed.  22 the O failed.  23, the O failed. 
 

yes, the D failed more so.  

 

This goes further upstream than what players or even one side of the ball does on the field.  Yes, even some of the best players make mistakes that affect outcomes.  Absolutely.

 

Still, before the first snap of the season management has already made their bed for the most part.  Coordinator choices, which schemes they're running, UFA signings/draft picks, etc.  You look at that first before isolating on field-level stuff.    

 

They've declined on the field because of what management decided off it for a few seasons now.  And I'm not enamored with the idea the same leaders are going to get the team out of it.  

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Because Allen can’t throw it AND catch it himself, or play pass rusher. Or coach. 🤔

[GerstAusGosheim]

3 hours ago, Gman10 said:

This season is rebuild

The Chiefs rebuilding year resulted in a Super Bowl victory. There are no free passes for Sean.

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

 

Simple....Rookie Offensive Coordinator only scored 10 points + Hamlin fatigue. Boys were emotionally spent.

Bengals don't even have as much as an incompletion in 3 opening drives against us. 3 TD passes, nearly 200 yards, zero incompletions. 

[Mikie2times]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

I think it really is that simple.  Nobody wants to hear it but LUCK MATTERS, especially in the playoffs.

 

Luck plays a roll, but if that's the conclusion you land on with the information we have you just don't want to know and frankly I don't blame you. It's very hard to know we are an elite regular season team because it really makes it difficult to evaluate our performance in the regular season and what that means for the postseason. 

5 minutes ago, GerstAusGosheim said:

 

Defensive DVOA 2023 under Sean

Record: 11-6

Defensive DVOA Rank: 12

Vs. Pass Rank: 12

Vs. Rush Rank: 17

Schedule Rank: 28

Points Ave Per Game: 18.7 (Rank 4)

Yards Ave Per Game: 310.9 (Rank 😎

INTs: 18

Fumble Recoveries: 11

Sacks: 54

 

Defensive DVOA 2022 under Leslie

Record: 13-3

Defensive DVOA Rank: 2

Vs. Pass Rank: 2

Vs. Rush Rank: 3

Schedule Rank: 14

Points Ave Per Game: 19.1 (Rank 4)

Yards Ave Per Game: 319.4 (Rank 7)

INTs: 17

Fumble Recoveries: 10

Sacks: 40

 

Defensive DVOA 2021 Under Leslie

Record: 11-6

Defensive DVOA Rank: 1

Vs. Pass Rank: 1

Vs. Rush Rank: 1

Schedule Rank: 31

Points Ave Per Game: 18.3 (Rank 1)

Yards Ave Per Game: 289.2  (Rank 1)

INTs: 19

Fumble Recoveries: 11

Sacks: 42

 

 

Yep, Hamlin fatigue. Barely beat the Dolphins with their 3rd string QB. The whole team was a mess. 

We didn't have Hamlin fatigue in all three match ups. 

Edited August 29 by Mikie2times

[Mikie2times]

For those that think this is just KC, 14 of 14, 3 TD's, 181 yards

 

That is Burrows stat line against us in 3 opening drives. All 3 we had extended periods to prepare for. We are 0-2 against the Bengals and it would have been 0-3 if we finished the Hamlin game. So to think this is just KC or even that the Bengals playoff match up was just us being off our game just doesn't add up. 

[Donuts and Doritos]

 

That's the thing stats, #s & analytics can't account for, the human element. Effort, errors, luck, injury, all of the intangibles. That's why past performance is no guarantee of future success and it's why the games are played to decide the outcome on the field not in an analytic formula. 

[eball]

Ok, great, we suck, and McD will never get it done.

 

Everyone happy now?

 

[Royale with Cheese]

13 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

For those that think this is just KC, 14 of 14, 3 TD's, 181 yards

 

That is Burrows stat line against us in 3 opening drives. All 3 we had extended periods to prepare for. We are 0-2 against the Bengals and it would have been 0-3 if we finished the Hamlin game. So to think this is just KC or even that the Bengals playoff match up was just us being off our game just doesn't add up. 

 

That is amazing.  

[Augie]

19 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

For those that think this is just KC, 14 of 14, 3 TD's, 181 yards

 

That is Burrows stat line against us in 3 opening drives. All 3 we had extended periods to prepare for. We are 0-2 against the Bengals and it would have been 0-3 if we finished the Hamlin game. So to think this is just KC or even that the Bengals playoff match up was just us being off our game just doesn't add up. 

 

That playoff game was a head scratcher. We just didn’t show up, for whatever reason. We were flat, and they were physical. (I’m not getting into the drama rumors.) 

 

Having said that, I take some comfort in knowing that Mike Brown is cheap. Cincinnati was my college town and I still have buddies there with season tickets. He is despised. Ralph didn’t know what cheap looks like. Apparently, aside from the way they run the team, they complain that nobody will fix the escalators and stuff like that. I could go on and on, but I don’t see him coughing up $400 MIL in guarantees to put in escrow like the Dolphins did to sign Tua, Hill and Waddle. Maybe they can, but I don’t see them spending where they will need to long term. 

 

This link has some crazy stuff in it about just how bad things were in Cincinnati. 

 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/7/10/17553122/tj-houshmandzadeh-bengals-cincinnati-mike-brown-water-gatorade-jock-straps

[gjv]

From my perspective,this season is the start of Beane's 2nd shot to build a championship team. He got 13 seconds away from having that team with his first group. Realistically, and based on a normal injury year, I see this team having a 9 win season. Whether or not that makes the playoffs remains to be seen.

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That playoff game was a head scratcher. We just didn’t show up, for whatever reason. We were flat, and they were physical. (I’m not getting into the drama rumors.) 

 

Having said that, I take some comfort in knowing that Mike Brown is cheap. Cincinnati was my college town and I still have buddies there with season tickets. He is despised. Ralph didn’t know what cheap looks like. Apparently, aside from the way they run the team, they complain that nobody will fix the escalators and stuff like that. I could go on and on, but I don’t see him coughing up $400 MIL in guarantees to put in escrow like the Dolphins did to sign Tua, Hill and Waddle. Maybe they can, but I don’t see them spending where they will need to long term. 

 

This link has some crazy stuff in it about just how bad things were in Cincinnati. 

 

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2018/7/10/17553122/tj-houshmandzadeh-bengals-cincinnati-mike-brown-water-gatorade-jock-straps

I agree about the energy of the Bengals playoff game. I still look at the current version of the Bengals similar to the Colts as far as just seeming to have our number. Burrow/Taylor seem to be able to do whatever they want against us at a level that even rivals the Chiefs. I spent most my life in Michigan and Ohio. As you point out, Brown is notoriously cheap. You have to think that team will fail to sign its studs in the coming year. We need them to fall apart similar to how the Colts did. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

Bengals don't even have as much as an incompletion in 3 opening drives against us. 3 TD passes, nearly 200 yards, zero incompletions. 

They were just as banged up as we were too, I think they had 3rd stringers starting on the online...still rushed for 172 at 5.1 a clip

[Augie]

13 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I agree about the energy of the Bengals playoff game. I still look at the current version of the Bengals similar to the Colts as far as just seeming to have our number. Burrow/Taylor seem to be able to do whatever they want against us at a level that even rivals the Chiefs. I spent most my life in Michigan and Ohio. As you point out, Brown is notoriously cheap. You have to think that team will fail to sign its studs in the coming year. We need them to fall apart similar to how the Colts did. 

 

The Bengals just might have a strong season this year due to a last place schedule and with Higgins and Chase remaining as (temporary) weapons for Burrow. Higgins was tagged, and Chase is in the 4th year of his rookie deal and making loud rumblings. This year might be their shot, and frankly if it’s not the Bills, I’d rather have the Bengals over the Chiefs. I also kinda wonder the mood of the Ravens community with a two-time MVP QB and their early playoff exits. 

 

The Bengals playoff game is in my rear view mirror now. I prefer looking forward. Learn from it, then move on. 

 

 

.

Edited August 29 by Augie

[Turk71]

10 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

So, a Defensive coach who played the percentages ( kinda, they had timeouts) instead of understanding the nuances in the most important play of the season? He went with what he was comfortable with and let Kelce run free.

 

Except he wasn't playing any percentages. He was clueless and completely misunderstood the situation. There was absolutely no reason to guard the sidelines...period. The Chiefs had 2 timeouts and just 13 secs, they didn't need to run out of bounds at all. I was screaming at the TV when I saw what he was doing...I couldn't believe it. It was probably the dumbest ending to a game I've ever witnessed.  He looked so lost and confused. I've seen that same look too many times since. The panicked brain freeze

Edited August 29 by Turk71

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, eball said:

Ok, great, we suck, and McD will never get it done.

 

Everyone happy now?

 

 

This place is a radioactive dump. 

[philholbroo]

12 minutes ago, Turk71 said:

Except he wasn't playing any percentages. He was clueless and completely misunderstood the situation. There was absolutely no reason to guard the sidelines...period. The Chiefs had 2 timeouts and just 13 secs, they didn't need to run out of bounds at all. I was screaming at the TV and calling him an idiot when I saw what he was doing...I couldn't believe it. It was probably the dumbest ending to a game I've ever witnessed.  He looked so confused and stupid. I've seen that same look too many times since. The panicked brain freeze

They were scared of the speed and just played/coached not to lose (not give up touchdown).

[Buffalo Boy]

2 hours ago, Turk71 said:

Except he wasn't playing any percentages. He was clueless and completely misunderstood the situation. There was absolutely no reason to guard the sidelines...period. The Chiefs had 2 timeouts and just 13 secs, they didn't need to run out of bounds at all. I was screaming at the TV when I saw what he was doing...I couldn't believe it. It was probably the dumbest ending to a game I've ever witnessed.  He looked so lost and confused. I've seen that same look too many times since. The panicked brain freeze

No argument here!!!!

It was Unforgivable.

[JohnNord]

On 8/28/2024 at 8:04 PM, Mikie2times said:

DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey.

 

All of these rankings are regular season only.

 

This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020

 

2020: DVOA 3rd      

2021:  DVOA 2nd      

2022: DVOA 1st          

2023: DVOA 3rd        

 

- 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo)

- 2021  2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) 

- 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th)

- 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th)

 

No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. 

 

Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented.  

 

In this time our defense has ranked (in order)

 

2020: 11th

2021: 1st

2022: 2nd

2023: 12th

 

-Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. 

-We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later)

 

The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. 

 

Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right?

 

Ok, well then how do we explain....

 

-what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round?

-how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs?

-what happens in the regular season vs KC?

 

  Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs

 

 

Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings

 

-Winningest team in the NFL during this time

-Witch of a GM in Beane

 

The talent level has to be very high?

 

Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so.  This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020.

 

 

-So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with).

-Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) 

-We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason.

-We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card

-All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time 

 

Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. 

 

HELP ME UNDERSTAND!

 

 

 

Combination of a few things:

 

#1 Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs

 

They have been to the Super Bowl 4 out of the 5 seasons.  The Bengals got past them in 2021.  The Bills SHOULD have beaten them that season as well.  
 

Whether it’s Tennessee, Buffalo, Cincy or Baltimore KC continues to be a really tough opponent in the post season.  
 

#2 Very very bad injury luck

 

2021 was All Pro Tre White 

2022 saw “difference maker” Von Miller go down and other injuries late in the year

2023 saw Milano, Jones, and Tre out of most of the season.  Then you had multiple injuries to positions of weak depth at WR and LB.  Both which bit them in the ass.  
 

Yes, all teams face injuries.  It’s part of the game.  But having their best players face long term injuries is just horrible luck.  
 

#3 Anyone not named Josh Allen hasn’t stepped up.

 

This includes Sean McDermott though it’s not all on him.   Too many of the teams superstars are invisible at times when they are needed the most.  This had nothing to do with coaching and more about stepping up.  
 

Players like Ed Oliver, Tremaine Edmunds, Stefon Diggs, etc.. where are these guys in big football games?

 

So between KC being a dynasty, bad luck, and just failure the team is where it is 

[JohnNord]

11 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

People focus on the playoff losses to the Chiefs, but in reality you can toss in the "at least we got there" loss to the Jaguars, and another classic meltdown to the Texans. Altogether it's a pretty pathetic playoff record....but it's more fun that watching other teams in January.

This lacks a lot of context.  The 9-7 Bills team that took on Jacksonville didn’t really have great talent.  Yet they held Jacksonville, who came close to beating NE in the AFCCG, to their lowest post season output at 10 points.  It was an excellent defensive performance.  The team lost because Tyrod and his lack of playmakers.  
 

The Texans game is the definition of “Sugar High Josh.”  That and a fluke missed sack by Milano are the reasons they lost the football game.

 

Few want to admit it, but Josh didn’t really play that well in the second half of that football game