How do you explain this team?

[BananaB]

Bills built a good team and kept it together for a few years making very little changes to get to the ultimate goal. It’s like they went into every off-season chasing a few missed plays that cost them the year before.  Kept players too long, paid players too much and were scared to make any real change because they are to worried about taking a step back then a step forwards. It’s all McD and you can see it when he coaches. Loser mentality 

Edited August 29 by BananaB

[Matt_In_NH]

11 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

-We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason.

-We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card

 

TO these two statements....

 

first statement:  if you objectively look at the last 4 meetings, 2 regular season, 2 playoffs, they all came down the the end of the game, a play here, a play there, a bounce of the ball, etc.   Very evenly matched teams where each team has won 2 of the 4.   It is also true that the playoffs is what matters but I do believe there is some amount of "luck" in play here.  Imaging we flip coins 4 times, you have heads, I have tails and we decide to call the 2nd and 4th flip "heads".  The flips go tails heads tails heads.   You won the two "playoff" games.....was there really anything different about the 2nd and 4th flip or did it "just work out that way".  A football game is much more complex than a flip of a coin but my point is the teams are evenly matched and because they lose in the playoffs it is perceived a certain way.

 

Second Statement:  The Bills are one of 2 teams who have won a playoff game each of the last 4 years and by doing so they have advanced past the wild card in each, I assume you meant Divisional Round.

 

As far as the whole post, we have seen this before in various forms, if you look at point differential over the last 4 years the Bills are a huge outlier, if you look at offensive and defensive rankings in yards or points over that same span they are an outlier....the bottom line is they have not been able to finish.  DVOA is fancy stats but the conclusion is the same.   The NFL comes down to a single elimination tournament.   The sample size of playoffs is actually very small, none of that matters because the only thing that matters is if you win.  Von MIiller kinda summed it up, keep swinging and it should happen.  It does not have to but this organization has a good shot every year with the staff and QB they have.

Edited August 29 by Matt_In_NH

[Da webster guy]

We're still going to average 30 pts a week as we have for the last four years and be in the hunt at the end of the year.

 

Last year our best two targets were Shakir and Kincaid, who will be even better this year with some experience.  

 

We were one Chris Jones bullrush vs Dawkins away from beating KC last year (and maybe a Diggs drop).   You hafta have some luck to win it all.

 

Hey the Chiefs lost SIX games last year and still got the title.   Anything can happen.  I can't help but laugh when people are afraid our WR's aren't good enough.  Look at what Brady, Rodgers and Mahomes have done with average WR's.   Josh is no different.   

 

This is a fun team that wins a lot.   That's good enough for me.   

[Gugny]

11 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey.

 

All of these rankings are regular season only.

 

This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020

 

2020: DVOA 3rd      

2021:  DVOA 2nd      

2022: DVOA 1st          

2023: DVOA 3rd        

 

- 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo)

- 2021  2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) 

- 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th)

- 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th)

 

No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. 

 

Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented.  

 

In this time our defense has ranked (in order)

 

2020: 11th

2021: 1st

2022: 2nd

2023: 12th

 

-Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. 

-We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later)

 

The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. 

 

Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right?

 

Ok, well then how do we explain....

 

-what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round?

-how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs?

-what happens in the regular season vs KC?

 

  Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs

 

 

Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings

 

-Winningest team in the NFL during this time

-Witch of a GM in Beane

 

The talent level has to be very high?

 

Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so.  This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020.

 

 

-So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with).

-Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) 

-We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason.

-We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card

-All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time 

 

Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. 

 

HELP ME UNDERSTAND!

 

 

 

Look no further than the little bald guy on the sideline who claps a lot. 
 

The only common denominators left are him and Josh. 
 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

How do I explain this team?

 

Out with the old failed core of Morse, White, Hyde, Poyer, Diggs, and Davis and in with the new core of Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman, Benard, and Benford.  
 

Out with the feed Diggs to power the offense and in with Josh spreading the ball around to keep defenses off balance.  
 

Out with McD and Dorsey calling plays and in with Brady and Babich. 
 

Out with cap hell and in with some measure of fiscal responsibility achieved with turning over the oldest roster in the NFL. 
 

Out with poor early drafting of guys like Ford, Basham and even Epenesa and in with good early drafting like Cook, Kincaid, Torrence and Benard (and hopefully Coleman and Bishop). 
 

Sometimes change is a good thing.  

Edited August 29 by GASabresIUFan

[teef]

sexy

[Buffalo Boy]

11 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I would tend to agree but he sure seems to max out his talent in other spots. I'm starting to think it's a combination of him being able to max out talent against average squads, then sort of hitting a wall as that talent level increases. Take those concepts with some injuries and it can explains most, not all of this. Sure, some of it is likely random. 

High floor, intermediate ceiling coach

[dave mcbride]

10 hours ago, Logic said:

Thanks for the post. It's a good one, and a great question.

I think if anyone knows the answer definitively, they ought to rush to One Bills Drive and share their wisdom with Beane and Co, because I'm sure they'd love to hear it.

To put it simply: The Bills have been the second best team in the AFC the past four years. Unfortunately, the FIRST best team in the AFC has been standing in their way that whole time. That team has a HOF QB, too, but they ALSO have a HOF head coach, and one can argue that that has made the difference.

I can't answer the question of why our defense folds in the playoffs -- though bad injury luck has surely had something to do with it. I can't answer the question of why they can't seem to kick the door down, summit the mountain, whatever you want to say...

The best I can say is that this Bills team is the modern version of Peyton Manning's Colts teams. Hall of Fame quarterback, and consistently a powerhouse in the AFC. Unfortunately, their run of greatness coincided with a SUPERIOR run of greatness by a HOF QB/coach combo. That's what I think is happening here.

Sure, there's the loss to the Bengals. I'll never know how much to take from that game, because the intangibles of our team were so funky at that time after the exhaustion of Hamlin/deadly blizzard/moved games/Kim Pegula. Mostly, though, it's been the Chiefs standing in our way.

By and large, I just think we're a great team who can't seem to get past an even greater team. And yes, the only way the Bills will likely EVER win a championship in the Josh Allen era is if the defense can figure out a way to perform in the postseason the way they perform in the regular season. Can they? That's THE question, in my mind. Josh Allen will almost always get the job done in the clutch -- or at least perform well enough for a Bills win. Can the defense hold up its end of the bargain in January and February? Where for art thou, Bobby Babich?

Not really an answer to your question, but I was actually thinking of the scenario outlined below the other day, and now The Athletic has an article about it. My take: I think it’s improbable but certainly not out of the realm of possibility. On average, BB is without question a genius as a postseason defensive coach, and if he was paired with Josh Allen in 2025, I’d quickly say that the Bills’ potential to get farther than they would have with McDermott would be higher. Also, if they go 9-8 and miss the playoffs this season … but to reiterate, I don’t think this outcome is probable.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5726222/2024/08/29/bill-belichick-coach-nfl-2024-eagles-cowboys-bills/

“Other teams that could potentially match a more suitable criteria could include the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles. While the Bills have won double-digit regular-season games in five consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history, they haven’t gotten over the hump in the playoffs. If Sean McDermott can’t buck that trend, would ownership consider a run at Belichick?
…

The Bills are in a unique spot of their own on that front. General manager Brandon Beane and McDermott have worked together since 2011 when they were with the Carolina Panthers. If owner Terry Pegula determines Belichick is the better option after the season, would Pegula view Beane and McDermott as a package deal, or force Beane and Belichick to make serious adjustments and figure it out?

…

At any rate, these questions will continue to help drive the conversation, which will only fuel the speculation in several buildings. Strong starts will be imperative to curb the discussion in places like Dallas, Philly and even Buffalo where the debate has already started, either as a whisper or otherwise. But as history has shown, a few purported Super Bowl contenders will limp or fall out of the starting blocks, leading to a new group of potential Belichick suitors.”

Edited August 29 by dave mcbride

[Billl]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

How do you quantify taking off the gas vs. not? Is there a stat for that or are we just spit balling here?

 

Josh has missed half of the 4th quarter and even entire 4th quarters in some games over the last 4 years when things are really rolling on both sides. 

In 2021, Buffalo went 12-7 overall.  They outscored opponents by nearly 23 PPG in their wins.  The Chiefs have won the Super Bowl the past two seasons while winning exactly one game by more than 23 points.  McDermott will absolutely run up the score when he can.  I’m certainly not saying there’s anything wrong with that, just that it exists.  

 

Even in the postseason, you saw Buffalo score 14 points in the fourth quarter against the Patriots to win by 30.  The previous season when Buffalo was down 38-15 with 5 minutes left of the AFCCG, Kansas City shut it down, and the Bills scored a garbage time TD and FG. 

[SoCal Deek]

People have put it many different ways but it ultimately comes down to playing and coaching ‘in the moment’. Many look back fondly on the success of the ‘90s teams but those teams were really not all that different from the current rendition. But, Kelly and the gang didn’t get punched in the face until the Super Bowl each year. This group is facing that same punch but now in the AFC  playoff rounds trying to get past KC. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

People have put it many different ways but it ultimately comes down to playing and coaching ‘in the moment’. Many look back fondly on the success of the ‘90s teams but those teams were really not all that different from the current rendition. But, Kelly and the gang didn’t get punched in the face until the Super Bowl each year. This group is facing that same punch but now in the AFC  playoff rounds trying to get past KC. 

Same issue then as now.  

 

Levy was outcoached by Parcells.  Washington and Dallas were just physically better and beat down our soft defense. Sound familiar?

 

Reid owns McD in the playoffs.  The defense collapses every year going all the way back to the second half of the Texans game. 

 

McD is on his 4th OC and 3rd DC.   We missed out on Harbaugh.  I've said anything less than a SuperBowl appearance this year and we should move on from McD.  The problem is Beane has screwed up the WR group so bad, that McD almost gets a pass.  That said I'm convinced McD forced Beane to trade Diggs.  

 

Some teams are in QB purgatory. I'm fearful we are in HC purgatory and only an epic collapse will force Pegula to move on.

 

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

We were one Chris Jones bullrush vs Dawkins away from beating KC last year (and maybe a Diggs drop).   You hafta have some luck to win it all.

I think we all know that Mahomes marches down the field and scores the game winning TD even if Shakir catches that TD on the Jones bull rush. Defense was softer than wet tissue paper that day.

[Gregg]

9 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Same issue then as now.  

 

Levy was outcoached by Parcells.  Washington and Dallas were just physically better and beat down our soft defense. Sound familiar?

 

Reid owns McD in the playoffs.  The defense collapses every year going all the way back to the second half of the Texans game. 

 

McD is on his 4th OC and 3rd DC.   We missed out on Harbaugh.  I've said anything less than a SuperBowl appearance this year and we should move on from McD.  The problem is Beane has screwed up the WR group so bad, that McD almost gets a pass.  That said I'm convinced McD forced Beane to trade Diggs.  

 

Some teams are in QB purgatory. I'm fearful we are in HC purgatory and only an epic collapse will force Pegula to move on.

 

 

I think Beane and McDermott are safe even if 2024 is a bad year. They have done a lot of winning since they have been here so they probably would survive a bad year. But Terry is not afraid to make changes firing HC's and GM's. The Sabres are proof of that. Granted the Sabres have been a ****show for a long time but still Terry will make changes if he feels it's necessary.

[ganesh]

Success in the regular season gets us to the playoff...and thats it. 

 

Success in the playoffs gets us to the Lombardi.  Our stats and success in the playoffs has been AVERAGE and hence we have been booted out during the Divisional round mostly.   The only bright spot in the playoffs is Josh Allen...but the NFL is a team game and requires production from 25 other players on Offense/Defense/Special Teams. 

14 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I think we all know that Mahomes marches down the field and scores the game winning TD even if Shakir catches that TD on the Jones bull rush. Defense was softer than wet tissue paper that day.

I am not sure...that would be 50-50

[Buffalo Boy]

10 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I remember on NFL Mic’d Up Kelce said to Mahomes that our guys were defending the sidelines and if they show that look again he’d run down the seam. Then Mahomes said in his cadence before that play ‘Do it Kelce! Do it’ before the ball was hiked. So McD had his guys defended the sidelines even though KC had timeouts left. That was the mistake and Kelce and Mahomes took advantage. 

So, a Defensive coach who played the percentages ( kinda, they had timeouts) instead of understanding the nuances in the most important play of the season? He went with what he was comfortable with and let Kelce run free.

 

[thewookie1]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm saying there's plenty of evidence to suggest Bernard would have been as welll

 

I disagree, I don't think Kelce become a complete non-factor or anything but even marginal improvement may have given us the slight boost we needed to win the game. Kelce was quite literally wide open on general plays without him even needing much effort; Bernard would of at least gave him a challenge 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

Correct-  I’ll say it again- McDermott is not without fault.  He’s 💯 part of the reason we haven’t won a SB.  He’s just not the only reason.  
 

so I’ll ask again-  what part did McD play in the offense not scoring any points in the final 18 minutes vs the chiefs?  Was that his fault?  Did that happen to play a part in the loss?  Is ANY team going to beat Mahomes and Reid after not scoring for the final 18 minutes in the playoffs?

 

….. meanwhile his defense got stops on the last 2 possessions….. when the team absolutely needed them to.  
 

but yeah-  the loss was on him 💯  👌 

 

 

 

McD is the one that took the offense off the field for the 4th down to go for the most telegraphed fake punt in history with Damar 'make a wish' Hamlin. Going for it was the right decision, but going for it with a fake punt was lunacy. McD doesn't get nearly enough criticism for that choice on here. 

 

The DEF got stops on the 3rd and 2nd to last possessions. We could have forced a 3 and out on the Chiefs last possession to get the offense the ball back, but they did not. 

[Buffalo Boy]

2 hours ago, Da webster guy said:

Last year our best two targets were Shakir and Kincaid, who will be even better this year with some experience.

   This presupposes that both of them will have success if/when they are double covered consistently as opposed to last year.

   I do have some hope that Brady will be better passing game scheme-wise with a full offseason. However, it remains to be seen.

[BillsVet]

11 hours ago, NewEra said:

Correct-  I’ll say it again- McDermott is not without fault.  He’s 💯 part of the reason we haven’t won a SB.  He’s just not the only reason.  
 

so I’ll ask again-  what part did McD play in the offense not scoring any points in the final 18 minutes vs the chiefs?  Was that his fault?  Did that happen to play a part in the loss?  Is ANY team going to beat Mahomes and Reid after not scoring for the final 18 minutes in the playoffs?

 

….. meanwhile his defense got stops on the last 2 possessions….. when the team absolutely needed them to.  
 

but yeah-  the loss was on him 💯  👌 

 

Of course the HC is a part of the reason...how much so is the question. 

 

Versus KC in the Divisional Round they were minus defensive starters that impacted their game plan.  Everyone by now understands that.  Yet, this is more than 1 playoff game...the previous 4 seasons (2019-2022) they fell apart in the playoffs.  

 

I see people pointing to it being bad luck that players, especially defensive, are getting injured and stop their analysis right there.  Someone upthread, I think it was @Billl mentioned their reliance on veteran players who likely have a lot of wear and tear on their bodies.  The LB's can cover, but in the run game can be susceptible to injury because they're smaller framed.  The scheme in general during the regular season is good against mediocre to average QBs, but in the playoffs against better ones tends to break down.      

 

All of this begs the question: if your defense is key, but doesn't hold up against better teams and the players are getting hurt after a 17 game season...how do you address that in the off-season?  With new defensive additions?  A new DC? Putting the breaks on your offense to maintain TOP and help the defense?  Running it back personnel-wise for a few seasons with the same result?    

 

Because they've tried all that (or are going to in 2024).  There isn't a lot of confidence that this time it'll work.    

[dpberr]

Excellent post - I appreciate how you lay out the data.  Makes you wonder. 

 

Team is full of talent both in player and coach.  Record, and consistency of winning shows that.  However:

 

1. The McDermott teams have never had that Talley-like leader in the clubhouse where the leadership, heart and confidence - consistently shines in the biggest games.   Nobody on the Bills sideline showed up for that Cincy divisional game. IMO, that debacle of a game in front of the home fans was the worst loss of the Sean McDermott era.  
2. You don't beat coaches like Andy Reid, Steve Spagnuolo and Lou Anarumo with "process" using all the plays and cadence of plays those guys have seen.  Andy Reid shreds the Bills defense because the Bills are always in the position he thinks they will be in.