How do you explain this team?

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I don't have a DVOA specific calculator to be that specific. I do have a EPA one. EPA has some very close relationships to DVOA and many even prefer it.   

 

This is EPA on defense for wild card round or later 2020 to current compared to regular season EPA 2020 to current and the associated delta. The higher the positive threshold the worse they perform in the playoffs compared to the regular season.  Sample size is an issue with this look as the Bills are really the only team with a meaty sample that is up very high outside of maybe Dallas. Hope this helped to a degree. 

 

 

I have both listed. 

I'm going to assume this is accurate...and if so I don't even see how it's arguable anymore

 

The only teams whose defenses perform worse than ours regular season-->postseason are sadsack AFC teams unlucky enough to get blasted by either us or KC (or both) and tomato can NFC wildcard fodder

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:
 

The Tyreke Hill play was just well designed and executed.  The Kelce play just makes no sense.  The Bills take a timeout on defense and then 2 defenders just let him run right between them?  Was this ever explained as to what went wrong?

I remember on NFL Mic’d Up Kelce said to Mahomes that our guys were defending the sidelines and if they show that look again he’d run down the seam. Then Mahomes said in his cadence before that play ‘Do it Kelce! Do it’ before the ball was hiked. So McD had his guys defended the sidelines even though KC had timeouts left. That was the mistake and Kelce and Mahomes took advantage. 

[NewEra]

11 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't see the significance of 18mins like you apparently do

 

Again the Chiefs went like 29mins w out scoring in the Super Bowl

 

Here's a thought experiment for you- put our offense or even heck just Allen on the Bengals or Niners or Ravens and does KC have their current dynasty? I say clearly not

 

The flip side is give those teams our defense and KC is going for the 5peat this yr

😂😂We put the Pats and Colts up there

You don’t see the significance of not scoring any points in the last 18 minutes of a game vs pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid in a playoff game?  How many teams have defeated the chiefs in the playoffs doing that?

 

You’re asking me to play make believe in instances that could never be possible-

how would josh have fared if the ravens played without roquan, queen, Humphrey and a broken Clooney?  How would he have don’t if he were on the niners without Warner, ward, greenlaw and a broken bosa?  How would Josh have done on the bengals without Pratt, Wilson and a broken Hendrickson?  
 

again- you’re putting this on one person- and it’s ridiculous.  I don’t see how anyone that understand football could really believe what you believe.  He’s been part of the problem. He isn’t the only problem.  There have been multiple issues leading to our losses.  

 

[GoBills808]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You don’t see the significance of not scoring any points in the last 18 minutes of a game vs pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid in a playoff game?  How many teams have defeated the chiefs in the playoffs doing that?

 

You’re asking me to play make believe in instances that could never be possible-

how would josh have fared if the ravens played without roquan, queen, Humphrey and a broken Clooney?  How would he have don’t if he were on the niners without Warner, ward, greenlaw and a broken bosa?  How would Josh have done on the bengals without Pratt, Wilson and a broken Hendrickson?  
 

again- you’re putting this on one person- and it’s ridiculous.  I don’t see how anyone that understand football could really believe what you believe.  He’s been part of the problem. He isn’t the only problem.  There have been multiple issues leading to our losses.  

 

I'll rephrase if it makes you feel better

Heck I'll even use a euphemism

 

'the Bills playoff defense has been the single greatest contributing factor to their lack of success'

 

argue away

[MJS]

2 hours ago, Ga boy said:

This D is now built to defeat Mahomey with more pressure and more LB and CB speed.  Now if we can get Milano healthy and keep everyone else healthy, we’ll take care of KC.

I'm not really sure that is the case without adding more edge rushers. It comes down to Rousseau taking a big step and Miller proving he has something left in the tank.

[Mikie2times]

18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm going to assume this is accurate...and if so I don't even see how it's arguable anymore

 

The only teams whose defenses perform worse than ours regular season-->postseason are sadsack AFC teams unlucky enough to get blasted by either us or KC (or both) and tomato can NFC wildcard fodder

What's even more damning is the only teams worse than Buffalo that have more than 1 playoff game in this sample is NYG and PIT.  Buffalo has 9 games in this sample. Over half a season. So fairly stable data for what it is. Also worth noting is where the Bengals fall and Ravens. Total opposite along with KC who has a perception of being much better on defense but really are about the same. 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 29 by Mikie2times

[Captain Hindsight]

3 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I think with a healthy defense, they're in the AFCCG at minimum the last two years.

Me too. Injuries have killed us in the playoffs. 
 

Bernard on Kelcie makes last season very different IMO

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Me too. Injuries have killed us in the playoffs. 
 

Bernard on Kelcie makes last season very different IMO

We've seen Milano on Kelce and it wasn't different 

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Me too. Injuries have killed us in the playoffs. 
 

Bernard on Kelcie makes last season very different IMO

Maybe. KC went 6 for 83 in the regular season vs 8 for 91 in the playoffs at TE. That's without the Toney play counting. Not very different with just that look but more involved than just base production. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

As many have mentioned, the 2020 AFCCG was the best chance and it was blown.  I don’t know how many years I have left on this earth to die of natural causes, but I don’t think I’ll ever get over ‘13 seconds’.  
 

 

Disagree that 2020 AFCG was our best shot. I'd say both 2021 and 2023 were our best chances. 

 

Chiefs were clearly better than the Bills in 2020. It was nice to get to the AFCCG that year but Bills had no shot to actually walk away with a W that day. 

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

What's even more damning is the only teams worse than Buffalo that have more than 1 playoff game in this sample is NYG and PIT.  Buffalo has 9 games in this sample. Over half a season. So fairly stable data for what it is. Also worth noting is where the Bengals fall and Ravens. Total opposite along with KC who has a perception of being much better on defense but really are about the same. 

 

 

 

 

Correct 

I would expect the one game sample size teams to regress toward the mean

[Andysplaylist]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

I'm not really sure that is the case without adding more edge rushers. It comes down to Rousseau taking a big step and Miller proving he has something left in the tank.

This. It has been defensive line play. Outside of the ravens and patriots games in Buffalo, they disappear. A defensive line that causes havoc much of the time in the regular season was gone against a banged up bengals o line and pretty much every time we have played the chiefs in the playoffs. Last year the d line needed a big game with the LBs and DBs banged up and they failed. If we get a decent game from the d line in just one of those big games, it is a win. 

[Captain Hindsight]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

We've seen Milano on Kelce and it wasn't different 

Well, AJ Klein was a huge liability 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Well, AJ Klein was a huge liability 

I'm saying there's plenty of evidence to suggest Bernard would have been as welll

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Unless I’m misreading it, the OP’s DVOA rankings listed are overall team rankings, not defensive-specific.  If other top teams are taking their feet off the gas while the Bills aren’t, the Bills are going to have an inflated DVOA relative to those teams.

 

How do you quantify taking off the gas vs. not? Is there a stat for that or are we just spit balling here?

 

Josh has missed half of the 4th quarter and even entire 4th quarters in some games over the last 4 years when things are really rolling on both sides. 

[Big Blitz]

When the Texans get by the Chiefs in the playoffs on their way to the SB we’re going to have to have some hard conversations.   

[DaggersEOD]

To me, Josh’s career potential was derailed when we passed on DK for Glenn. 
 

The down stream effects on the WR position and what / how we invested our draft capital makes me very sad to think about. 
 

And I think that decision is emblematic of how we have the team the we do now, and why we can’t get over the hump. 
 

You need multiple elite freaks to have a chance. Freaks that stand out come playoff time when the refs “let them play”. 
 

We have Josh, but like many have said before in this thread, we need more talent. 
 

That’s what wins in the playoffs. 

[Buffalo Ballin]

McDermott's defense usually breaks down at the biggest games.

[philholbroo]

its scared gameplanning/coaching. several of the playoff games you can see the adjustment to be aggressive early on, and then as the game progresses the scared coaching comes creeping back in and they start playing to not lose.

[machine gun kelly]

8 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

With the exception of the Cincy / Hamlin playoff blowout, this team seems to take turns letting Josh Allen down. 

 

Bad defense, bad coaching, bad drops, bad penalties. Spin the wheel and pick one at random.

 

Josh Allen is the factor that the statistics can not account for because Josh Allen is a generational unicorn and a walking, talking, throwing statistical outlier. 

 

We are entering year 7 for Josh Allen.  Year 7...   And we still haven't made a Super Bowl.   If Josh retires from his Hall of Fame career without a Super Bowl ring, it will be an indictment of the entire Buffalo Bills organization.

My six fingered friend, I know it gets frustrating for people to not get to the promised land, and yes we need to do more to surround Josh with better weapons.  Having said that, we have a lot of cap space next year, and I don’t believe for a minute Beane has devalued the WR position.  We need to survive this year with at least 11-6, amd make it if not to the AFCCG, at least a run at the Divisional round.  Next year is when we could get in the business of studs like Aiyuk or others available.