Mikie2times Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey. All of these rankings are regular season only. This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020 2020: DVOA 3rd 2021: DVOA 2nd 2022: DVOA 1st 2023: DVOA 3rd - 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo) - 2021 2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) - 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th) - 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th) No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented. In this time our defense has ranked (in order) 2020: 11th 2021: 1st 2022: 2nd 2023: 12th -Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. -We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later) The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right? Ok, well then how do we explain.... -what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round? -how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs? -what happens in the regular season vs KC? Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings -Winningest team in the NFL during this time -Witch of a GM in Beane The talent level has to be very high? Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so. This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020. -So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with). -Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) -We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason. -We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card -All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND! 1 2 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
first_and_ten Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 My head hurts😒 2 1 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 (edited) We got stuck behind the Chiefs and had a few very bad breaks. Like the rest of the NFL. That’s sports. . Edited August 29 by Augie 10 4 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruffalo Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 (edited) In all seriousness, we're just a statistical outlier. It doesn't have to make sense. Edited August 29 by Bruffalo 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 (edited) Good but no longer as talented as 5 other AFC Teams and possibly 8-10 teams total. From 2020-2023 we were a top 5 talented team. We have 35 plus million tied up in dead cap and to a guy out for most of the season. I’m always hopeful bc of Josh. But not helping him to the max every year is a crime against humanity. And I’m beginning to worry we are building an offense around a run game as Josh enters his prime. We should have drafted Coleman AND Polk. Should have been drafting 2 WRs minimum every year - we’ve missed on the ones we did - but I’m hopeful on Shakir and Keon. I wouldn’t be surprised if we missed the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if we got fully healthy in December and January and made the SB. Edited August 29 by Big Blitz 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted August 29 Author Share Posted August 29 3 minutes ago, Bruffalo said: In all seriousness, we're just a statistical outlier. It doesn't have to make sense. I need Tony D'Amato to read me lifes a game of inches before bed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Pretty easy actually.. Allen is the only player we have who steps up in the brightest moments. Everyone else, so far, plays at the same level or chokes. Compared to a team that collectively steps up in the Playoffs around Mahomes. Injuries play a part too, but that just can’t be the excuse when it’s every year thus far. 5 3 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 A defense that seems to have half its starters either out or playing with three limbs every postseason. 8 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridgewaycynic2013 Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 'How Can We Lose When We're So Sincere?' 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted August 29 Author Share Posted August 29 Just now, Simon said: A defense that seems to have half its starters either out or playing with three limbs every postseason. 11 minutes ago, Bruffalo said: In all seriousness, we're just a statistical outlier. It doesn't have to make sense. If that is the reason is it something you just chalk up to bad luck? Sort of like the statistical outlier concept. The longer an outlier is present the more likely it is no longer an outlier. The 2020 playoff run with a reasonably healthy defense makes me question if it's as simple as that. Colts and Chiefs did what they wanted on us. I don't question if that has been a contributing factor especially of late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DabillsDaBillsDaBills Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 Playoffs are a small sample size and unfortunately our excellent regular season DEF gets TORCHED by KC in the playoffs. Is it simply bad luck? Does McD get too tight and that trickles down to the players? Is our team at a disadvantage in the 'let them play' style in playoff games where refs are too scared to call penalties? In our last 4 playoff losses our opponents have been called for 8 total penalties. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 1 minute ago, Mikie2times said: If that is the reason is it something you just chalk up to bad luck? Sort of like the statistical outlier concept. The longer an outlier is present the more likely it is no longer an outlier. The 2020 playoff run with a reasonably healthy defense makes me question if it's as simple as that. Colts and Chiefs did what they wanted on us. I don't question if that has been a contributing factor especially of late. I think with a healthy defense, they're in the AFCCG at minimum the last two years. 1 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inigo Montoya Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, SCBills said: Pretty easy actually.. Allen is the only player we have who steps up in the brightest moments. Everyone else, so far, plays at the same level or chokes. Compared to a team that collectively steps up in the Playoffs around Mahomes. Injuries play a part too, but that just can’t be the excuse when it’s every year thus far. With the exception of the Cincy / Hamlin playoff blowout, this team seems to take turns letting Josh Allen down. Bad defense, bad coaching, bad drops, bad penalties. Spin the wheel and pick one at random. Josh Allen is the factor that the statistics can not account for because Josh Allen is a generational unicorn and a walking, talking, throwing statistical outlier. We are entering year 7 for Josh Allen. Year 7... And we still haven't made a Super Bowl. If Josh retires from his Hall of Fame career without a Super Bowl ring, it will be an indictment of the entire Buffalo Bills organization. 2 11 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 I explain this team this way: a really good team that keeps getting beat by the BEST team in the NFL (the KC Chiefs). It's really as simple as that. McDermott and Allen are good. Reid and Mahomes are perhaps the best coach/QB combo in the history of the league. The Bills need to stay relatively healthy and bring their A game against them in the playoffs. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DapperCam Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 23 minutes ago, Augie said: We got stuck behind the Chiefs and had a few very bad breaks. Like the rest of the NFL. That’s sports. . It isn’t just bad breaks. We have one of the worst defenses in the playoffs over the past 5 years and there is enough of a sample size to say it isn’t just a coincidence. 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simon Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 3 minutes ago, MJS said: I explain this team this way: a really good team that keeps getting beat by the BEST team in the NFL (the KC Chiefs). It's really as simple as that. If I wasn't chalking it up to injuries, this would be my answer. 👆 The 2nd best team in the league getting beat by the best team in the league. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruffalo Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: If that is the reason is it something you just chalk up to bad luck? Besides 13 seconds which was a complete breakdown, yeah, I'd say it's mostly bad luck. Bad injuries and a handful of plays pretty much sealed our fate. It's unlikely but when has anything ever been easy for Buffalo? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 29 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: DVOA is the most accurate ranking system I'm aware of which is a good place to start this journey. All of these rankings are regular season only. This is Buffalo's DVOA ranking since 2020 2020: DVOA 3rd 2021: DVOA 2nd 2022: DVOA 1st 2023: DVOA 3rd - 2020 4 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (including Buffalo) - 2021 2 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (KC was 6th) - 2022 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (CIN was 6th) - 2023 3 of the top 5 made it to the conference championship game (DET was 7th) No team in the NFL has 4 years in the Top 5 let alone the top 3. Our level of success has been a bit unprecedented. In this time our defense has ranked (in order) 2020: 11th 2021: 1st 2022: 2nd 2023: 12th -Based on EPA in the playoffs we rank 18th out of 28 teams with at least one playoff game since 2020. -We rank 16th out of 17 teams in the divisional round or later during that time (offense is 4th out of 17 Divisional round or later and 6th out of 28 wild card or later) The lack of success we have had in the playoffs compared to DVOA is striking but the 16th out of 17th defensive rankings in EPA is even more stunning. We somehow go from an elite defense to a pillow once we cross the divisional round. This topic has been discussed at length on this board so I'm just noting it from an analytics stand point. Now the reason for this playoff demise has to be KC right? Ok, well then how do we explain.... -what the Bengals did to us in the divisional round? -how other teams can slow Mahomes down with lower defensive rankings in the playoffs? -what happens in the regular season vs KC? Top line is Mahomes vs us in the regular season and the lower graph is Mahomes vs those teams in the playoffs Lets shift back to those DVOA rankings -Winningest team in the NFL during this time -Witch of a GM in Beane The talent level has to be very high? Those who vote for all pro's don't seem to think so. This is 1st or 2nd team all pros as voted on by multiple publications since 2020. -So we are among the best teams in football with one of the best GM's in football but our players aren't considered that great (which I somewhat agree with). -Then our coach, who typically leads one of the best defenses in the NFL, with what appears to be players that are not the best, sucks in the postseason and has also earned a Marty like reputation (which I sort of agree with but more recently wonder more about our talent level) -We can handle KC in the regular season just fine but not the postseason. -We are the most successful team in the NFL, but can't advance past the Wild Card -All this is occurring with a hall of fame level QB who is among the more successful in the playoffs of all time Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND! McD’s D sucks when it bumps up against excellent teams and coaches. 17 minutes ago, SCBills said: Allen is the only player we have who steps up in the brightest moments. Absolutely!!!! “ Big time players make big time plays.” I said this last year before the KC game. It is never too big for him. McD however, is another story. The bigger the game, the tighter the sphincter. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lost Posted August 29 Share Posted August 29 36 minutes ago, Mikie2times said: Why do people think this is the profile of our team? To me, it has almost reached an obsessive level of analyzation because deep down I just don't trust this iteration of the Bills and I can't stand that I don't trust them. Something is not right and I don't think it is as simple as saying McD, defense, KC. It could be multiple things but I don't think it is possible that one thing can explain what is in this thread. HELP ME UNDERSTAND! It's McD 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikie2times Posted August 29 Author Share Posted August 29 (edited) 19 minutes ago, MJS said: I explain this team this way: a really good team that keeps getting beat by the BEST team in the NFL (the KC Chiefs). It's really as simple as that. McDermott and Allen are good. Reid and Mahomes are perhaps the best coach/QB combo in the history of the league. The Bills need to stay relatively healthy and bring their A game against them in the playoffs. 22 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said: Playoffs are a small sample size and unfortunately our excellent regular season DEF gets TORCHED by KC in the playoffs. Is it simply bad luck? Does McD get too tight and that trickles down to the players? Is our team at a disadvantage in the 'let them play' style in playoff games where refs are too scared to call penalties? In our last 4 playoff losses our opponents have been called for 8 total penalties. 16 minutes ago, Simon said: If I wasn't chalking it up to injuries, this would be my answer. 👆 The 2nd best team in the league getting beat by the best team in the league. I have seen zero evidence to suggest this team can hang with a healthy Joe Burrow. It's not just KC. I can see a combination of injuries and great teams. Perhaps coaching against those great teams. I mean keep in mind the Bengals had nearly the entire starting offensive line out against us. So it's not like they were healthy and across 3 opening drives Joe B has nearly 200 yards, 3TD's and zero incompletions on us. It's very hard for me to say it's one thing with this type of information available to consider. The bold is an interesting thought. I have wondered is scheme contributes and perhaps it does with us not playing any man vs those that do. Further, sort of an undersized speed oriented defense. Which can run a little more soft. Edited August 29 by Mikie2times 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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