Cuts, Waiver Claims & 90 man roster depth: A study

[GunnerBill]

I've started this thread on the back of an interesting shoutbox conversation last night about whether Bills fans over estimate the quality of their cuts and worry unduly about people who are essentially camp legends in Buffalo but don't register on the NFL landscape otherwise. I think there was certainly a time when that was true when we'd be worrying about losing guys to other teams when we were arguably fielding a bottom 10/12 NFL roster. But I said last night that is no longer true and actually the Bills do a great job with roster depth right through camp. It is something I think contributed to the long pre-season unbeaten run which before the defeat to Carolina in the final pre-season game of 2022 stood at 10 games. Certainly since 2020 when they won their first division title in forever the Bills have had very deep 53 man rosters and deep groups behind that through camp. 

 

That has led to cutdown day resulting in the Bills losing guys they would have liked on their practice squads. I knew they were top 3 in that category, I'd heard that in a podcast but I thought it was with the 49ers and the Ravens... it turns out it is the 49ers and the Jets (anomaly, more to come). Since 2020 the teams who have had the most roster claims on guys waived at cutdown day are:

 

1. Buffalo Bills (10)

2. New York Jets (9)

3. San Francisco 49ers (8)

=4. Kansas City Chiefs (6)

=4. Philadelphia Eagles (6)

 

What do you notice from that? Well the Chiefs (1st), Bills (2nd), 49ers (6th) and Eagles (10th) are among the winning most franchises over that period. That, you would logically assume, means they have strong rosters which makes them harder to crack for rookies and undrafted players which means each summer they are more likely to cut guys other teams think they could use. Why then the Jets? Hard to say. Of their nine, five came in a single year - 2022 - and while it is not immediately obvious why that should be the case there was an element of year 2 of Saleh being a time they cut bait with guys drafted under Adam Gase. I think it is probably just one of those inexplicable anomalies because otherwise the pattern is pretty consistent. Good teams have more guys claimed than bad teams.

 

For those wondering the full list of the 10 Bills claimed:

2020 - Vincent Taylor, Defensive Tackle - claimed by Cleveland Browns

2021 - Jack Anderson, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Philadelphia Eagles

2021 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the Cincinnati Bengals

2022 - Tanner Owen, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the New Orleans Saints

2022 - Luke Tenuta, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the Indianapolis Colts

2022 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the New York Giants

2022 - Kingsley Jonathon, Defensive End - claimed by the Chicago Bears

2023 - Nick Broeker, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Alex Austin, Defensive Back - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Zayne Anderson, Defensive Back - claimed by the Green Back Packers

 

I think that in itself is interesting. It breaks down as four offensive line, four defensive backs (including McCloud twice) and two defensive linemen. What do those spots have in common? They are the most numerous spots on NFL rosters. Most teams keep 9 or 10 at each of those spots and that creates greater opportunity. Worth reminding ourselves that in addition to these 10 guys claimed off waivers Brandon Beane has swung late camp trades to recover day 3 picks for the likes of Darryl Johnson (6th rounder), Boogie Basham (6th rounder), Marshall Newhouse (7th rounder) and Russell Bodine (6th rounder). It's also interesting because of where Brandon Beane has deployed draft and free agency dollars. He has brought in a ton of FA vets on both lines, spent a lot of high picks on the defensive line and drafts at least one day 3 defensive back every year (with a reasonable rate of success I might add). The positions where he traditionally hasn't invested so much *cough* wide receiver, you don't see guys who fail to make the Bills roster being desired by other teams - although Isaiah Hodgins was claimed off waivers when the Bills finally released him in 2022 thought that happened later in the season. 

 

What does all of this mean for what happens this week? It will be interesting to observe. My contention all summer has been this camp squad is not as deep as previous years, despite what looks like a decent crop of day 3 picks from the most recent draft. I wonder if that will show itself in the Bills facing fewer roster claims? The majority of the guys I think might be attractive if they hit the waiver wire - Cam Lewis (who I think is still subject because I think he has 3 accrued seasons rather than 4 despite being around longer), Ja'Marcus Ingram, Kingsley Jonathan, Tylan Gable, Alec Anderson, Zach Davidson - are all likely to make the team. So I think the remaining candidates are:

Joe Andreessen who is obviously the most interesting case. Personally I have him making the 53 but if he doesn't the Pittsburgh tape was so good you might get a bottom feeding team who think he is worth taking a chance on. 

Tre' McKitty, who might also make the squad if Quintin Morris goes on IR, but if he doesn't could garner some interest. He cleared waivers when cut by the Chargers last October before the Bills scooped him up for the practice squad, but teams are generally less willing to mess with their rosters at that point of the year and he still has the pedigree of a former third round pick and is a good special teamer.

Frank Gore Jnr, who health permitting could get some looks. I don't think any other 5'8, 4.69 running back would be getting looks for a waiver claim - even with a strong pre-season behind him but I do think the lineage might tempt some teams in. His dad wasn't big or fast either and was overlooked but is going to end up in Canton at some point. 

 

And then of course there are always the surprises. I'd say of the 10 names listed above 9 were guys you always suspected could be at risk of waiver claims if cut and might not make it through to the practice squad..... the one that stands out is Luke Tenuta who the Bills wasted a 6th round pick on. He looked so stiff in camp and pre-season and it was a shock the Colts claimed him. Even more so that they cut Ryan Van Demark to make room who cleared waivers but landed on the Bills practice squad and eventually made the active roster last season and is on course to do so again this year. Tenuta was waived by the Colts two months later and claimed again by Green Bay where he remains having spent 2023 on IR. 

 

Takeaways:

1. The Bills have been one of the most picked over rosters at cut down day, which speaks to their roster depth even through the summer in recent years;

2. The guys that get claimed are generally at those high volume roster positions - OL, DL, DB;

3. There look to be fewer guys this year who might fall into that category if they are cut. 

 

Hope some of you got to the end of that and it was at least somewhat interesting.  

 

EDIT: should say analysis based on information from nfltraderumours.co who run a yearly tracker. I can't entirely validate its veracity but it seems comprehensive from a quick cross check with the NFL.com's unwieldy waiver tracker page.

Edited August 26 by GunnerBill

[Bray Wyatt]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I've started this thread on the back of an interesting shoutbox conversation last night about whether Bills fans over estimate the quality of their cuts and worry unduly about people who are essentially camp legends in Buffalo but don't register on the NFL landscape otherwise. I think there was certainly a time when that was true when we'd be worrying about losing guys to other teams when we were arguably fielding a bottom 10/12 NFL roster. But I said last night that is no longer true and actually the Bills do a great job with roster depth right through camp. It is something I think contributed to the long pre-season unbeaten run which before the defeat to Carolina in the final pre-season game of 2022 stood at 10 games. Certainly since 2020 when they won their first division title in forever the Bills have had very deep 53 man rosters and deep groups behind that through camp. 

 

That has led to cutdown day resulting in the Bills losing guys they would have liked on their practice squads. I knew they were top 3 in that category, I'd heard that in a podcast but I thought it was with the 49ers and the Ravens... it turns out it is the 49ers and the Jets (anomaly, more to come). Since 2020 the teams who have had the most roster claims on guys waived at cutdown day are:

 

1. Buffalo Bills (10)

2. New York Jets (9)

3. San Francisco 49ers (8)

=4. Kansas City Chiefs (6)

=4. Philadelphia Eagles (6)

 

What do you notice from that? Well the Chiefs (1st), Bills (2nd), 49ers (6th) and Eagles (10th) are among the winning most franchises over that period. That, you would logically assume, means they have strong rosters which makes them harder to crack for rookies and undrafted players which means each summer they are more likely to cut guys other teams think they could use. Why then the Jets? Hard to say. Of their nine, five came in a single year - 2022 - and while it is not immediately obvious why that should be the case there was an element of year 2 of Saleh being a time they cut bait with guys drafted under Adam Gase. I think it is probably just one of those inexplicable anomalies because otherwise the pattern is pretty consistent. Good teams have more guys claimed than bad teams.

 

For those wondering the full list of the 10 Bills claimed:

2020 - Vincent Taylor, Defensive Tackle - claimed by Cleveland Browns

2021 - Jack Anderson, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Philadelphia Eagles

2021 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the Cincinnati Bengals

2022 - Tanner Owen, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the New Orleans Saints

2022 - Luke Tenuta, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the Indianapolis Colts

2022 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the New York Giants

2022 - Kingsley Jonathon, Defensive End - claimed by the Chicago Bears

2023 - Nick Broeker, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Alex Austin, Defensive Back - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Zayne Anderson, Defensive Back - claimed by the Green Back Packers

 

I think that in itself is interesting. It breaks down as four offensive line, four defensive backs (including McCloud twice) and two defensive linemen. What do those spots have in common? They are the most numerous spots on NFL rosters. Most teams keep 9 or 10 at each of those spots and that creates greater opportunity. Worth reminding ourselves that in addition to these 10 guys claimed off waivers Brandon Beane has swung late camp trades to recover day 3 picks for the likes of Darryl Johnson (6th rounder), Boogie Basham (6th rounder), Marshall Newhouse (7th rounder) and Russell Bodine (6th rounder). It's also interesting because of where Brandon Beane has deployed draft and free agency dollars. He has brought in a ton of FA vets on both lines, spent a lot of high picks on the defensive line and drafts at least one day 3 defensive back every year (with a reasonable rate of success I might add). The positions where he traditionally hasn't invested so much *cough* wide receiver, you don't see guys who fail to make the Bills roster being desired by other teams - although Isaiah Hodgins was claimed off waivers when the Bills finally released him in 2022 thought that happened later in the season. 

 

What does all of this mean for what happens this week? It will be interesting to observe. My contention all summer has been this camp squad is not as deep as previous years, despite what looks like a decent crop of day 3 picks from the most recent draft. I wonder if that will show itself in the Bills facing fewer roster claims? The majority of the guys I think might be attractive if they hit the waiver wire - Cam Lewis (who I think is still subject because I think he has 3 accrued seasons rather than 4 despite being around longer), Ja'Marcus Ingram, Kingsley Jonathan, Tylan Gable, Alec Anderson, Zach Davidson - are all likely to make the team. So I think the remaining candidates are:

Joe Andreessen who is obviously the most interesting case. Personally I have him making the 53 but if he doesn't the Pittsburgh tape was so good you might get a bottom feeding team who think he is worth taking a chance on. The other candidates are:

Tre' McKitty, who might also make the squad if Quintin Morris goes on IR, but if he doesn't could garner some interest. He cleared waivers when cut by the Chargers last October before the Bills scooped him up for the practice squad, but teams are generally less willing to mess with their rosters at that point of the year and he still has the pedigree of a former third round pick and is a good special teamer.

Frank Gore Jnr, who health permitting could get some looks. I don't think any other 5'8, 4.69 running back would be getting looks for a waiver claim - even with a strong pre-season behind him but I do think the lineage might tempt some teams in. His dad wasn't big or fast either and was overlooked but is going to end up in Canton at some point. 

 

And then of course there are always the surprises. I'd say of the 10 names listed above 9 were guys you always suspected could be at risk of waiver claims if cut and might not make it through to the practice squad..... the one that stands out is Luke Tenuta who the Bills wasted a 6th round pick on. He looked so stiff in camp and pre-season and it was a shock the Colts claimed him. Even more so that they cut Ryan Van Demark to make room who cleared waivers but landed on the Bills practice squad and eventually made the active roster last season and is on course to do so again this year. Tenuta was waived by the Colts two months later and claimed again by Green Bay where he remains having spent 2023 on IR. 

 

Takeaways:

1. The Bills have been one of the most picked over rosters at cut down day, which speaks to their roster depth even through the summer in recent years;

2. The guys that get claimed are generally at those high volume roster positions - OL, DL, DB;

3. There look to be fewer guys this year who might fall into that category if they are cut. 

 

Hope some of you got to the end of that and it was at least somewhat interesting.  

 

Just wanted to acknowledge the work you put in on this and say thanks. It has been something I have wondered about, but never took the time to really look into

[Chaos]

@GunnerBill Nice analysis. I appreciate people compling statisitical information that is not ordinarily summarized. 

 

In a different thready you posted this reply to the question.  What has to happen for this team to become a Super Bowl contender (again)?



My follow up questions are

1) is there a tradeoff in for  depth vs getting more differences makers? Or are they independent variables. 
2)  if you were weighting importance on a percentage scale, where do you rate the importance of "difference makers" over "Depth" 

Edited August 26 by Chaos

[GASabresIUFan]

How many come back the other way?  Since 2020, how many trades or waiver claims has Beane made to enhance his depth? 

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

@GunnerBill Nice analysis. I appreciate people compling statisitical information that is not ordinarily summarized. 

 

In a different thready you posted this reply to the question.  What has to happen for this team to become a Super Bowl contender (again)?



My follow up questions are

1) is there a tradeoff in for  depth vs getting more differences makers? Or are they independent variables. 
2)  if you were weighting importance on a percentage scale, where do you rate the importance of "difference makers" over "Depth" 

 

Not as relevant to this conversation which is mainly looking at the back end of the 53 and camp depth (although that has been impacted this year by tightness to the cap and all the dead money on it) but yes... I think there is a trade off between depth particularly when you are talking how strong are your #2s vs how many difference makers are there that you have regularly on the field? And I do think the Bills have veered slightly too far towards the vet depth end as against the prioritise the elite end. But it is a bit chicken and egg, right? Have they had more $$s to build depth because they haven't found enough elite guys that they need to pay top of market or have they not paid enough elite top of market guys because they have spent too much on depth? I think year by year a bit of both is true of the Bills roster building. In fairness to Beane you also have to say they have had some just plain bad luck. When three years in a row you lose one of your top 6 paid guys to a season ending injury by the midway mark that is going to hurt.... so they haven't always been able to get maximum efficiency from their spend on their top guys because of the ACLs to Von and Tre, the leg break for Matt and Tre's achillies and that is without throwing in Milano's bicep tear which I think we all hope isn't season ending and he could come back for the stretch run if the Bills are in the hunt. 

 

So in conclusion: yes, I think there's a trade off; yes, I think the Bills have probably been slightly further towards the depth end than I'd like; but equally the reasons for that are, as ever, complicated to easily unpick and a range of factors at play. 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

How many come back the other way?  Since 2020, how many trades or waiver claims has Beane made to enhance his depth? 

 

Roster cutdown waiver acquisitions it is zero. That doesn't mean he hasn't made claims though. We have been near the back of the waiver queue for all of that period. I'm sure there is one or two in season waiver claims I might be missing - Jordan Phillips the first time back in 2018 was definitely an in-season waiver claim. There probably have been some others since but in terms of cutdown waiver pick ups since 2020 it's zero.

[JP51]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I've started this thread on the back of an interesting shoutbox conversation last night about whether Bills fans over estimate the quality of their cuts and worry unduly about people who are essentially camp legends in Buffalo but don't register on the NFL landscape otherwise. I think there was certainly a time when that was true when we'd be worrying about losing guys to other teams when we were arguably fielding a bottom 10/12 NFL roster. But I said last night that is no longer true and actually the Bills do a great job with roster depth right through camp. It is something I think contributed to the long pre-season unbeaten run which before the defeat to Carolina in the final pre-season game of 2022 stood at 10 games. Certainly since 2020 when they won their first division title in forever the Bills have had very deep 53 man rosters and deep groups behind that through camp. 

 

That has led to cutdown day resulting in the Bills losing guys they would have liked on their practice squads. I knew they were top 3 in that category, I'd heard that in a podcast but I thought it was with the 49ers and the Ravens... it turns out it is the 49ers and the Jets (anomaly, more to come). Since 2020 the teams who have had the most roster claims on guys waived at cutdown day are:

 

1. Buffalo Bills (10)

2. New York Jets (9)

3. San Francisco 49ers (8)

=4. Kansas City Chiefs (6)

=4. Philadelphia Eagles (6)

 

What do you notice from that? Well the Chiefs (1st), Bills (2nd), 49ers (6th) and Eagles (10th) are among the winning most franchises over that period. That, you would logically assume, means they have strong rosters which makes them harder to crack for rookies and undrafted players which means each summer they are more likely to cut guys other teams think they could use. Why then the Jets? Hard to say. Of their nine, five came in a single year - 2022 - and while it is not immediately obvious why that should be the case there was an element of year 2 of Saleh being a time they cut bait with guys drafted under Adam Gase. I think it is probably just one of those inexplicable anomalies because otherwise the pattern is pretty consistent. Good teams have more guys claimed than bad teams.

 

For those wondering the full list of the 10 Bills claimed:

2020 - Vincent Taylor, Defensive Tackle - claimed by Cleveland Browns

2021 - Jack Anderson, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Philadelphia Eagles

2021 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the Cincinnati Bengals

2022 - Tanner Owen, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the New Orleans Saints

2022 - Luke Tenuta, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the Indianapolis Colts

2022 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the New York Giants

2022 - Kingsley Jonathon, Defensive End - claimed by the Chicago Bears

2023 - Nick Broeker, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Alex Austin, Defensive Back - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Zayne Anderson, Defensive Back - claimed by the Green Back Packers

 

I think that in itself is interesting. It breaks down as four offensive line, four defensive backs (including McCloud twice) and two defensive linemen. What do those spots have in common? They are the most numerous spots on NFL rosters. Most teams keep 9 or 10 at each of those spots and that creates greater opportunity. Worth reminding ourselves that in addition to these 10 guys claimed off waivers Brandon Beane has swung late camp trades to recover day 3 picks for the likes of Darryl Johnson (6th rounder), Boogie Basham (6th rounder), Marshall Newhouse (7th rounder) and Russell Bodine (6th rounder). It's also interesting because of where Brandon Beane has deployed draft and free agency dollars. He has brought in a ton of FA vets on both lines, spent a lot of high picks on the defensive line and drafts at least one day 3 defensive back every year (with a reasonable rate of success I might add). The positions where he traditionally hasn't invested so much *cough* wide receiver, you don't see guys who fail to make the Bills roster being desired by other teams - although Isaiah Hodgins was claimed off waivers when the Bills finally released him in 2022 thought that happened later in the season. 

 

What does all of this mean for what happens this week? It will be interesting to observe. My contention all summer has been this camp squad is not as deep as previous years, despite what looks like a decent crop of day 3 picks from the most recent draft. I wonder if that will show itself in the Bills facing fewer roster claims? The majority of the guys I think might be attractive if they hit the waiver wire - Cam Lewis (who I think is still subject because I think he has 3 accrued seasons rather than 4 despite being around longer), Ja'Marcus Ingram, Kingsley Jonathan, Tylan Gable, Alec Anderson, Zach Davidson - are all likely to make the team. So I think the remaining candidates are:

Joe Andreessen who is obviously the most interesting case. Personally I have him making the 53 but if he doesn't the Pittsburgh tape was so good you might get a bottom feeding team who think he is worth taking a chance on. 

Tre' McKitty, who might also make the squad if Quintin Morris goes on IR, but if he doesn't could garner some interest. He cleared waivers when cut by the Chargers last October before the Bills scooped him up for the practice squad, but teams are generally less willing to mess with their rosters at that point of the year and he still has the pedigree of a former third round pick and is a good special teamer.

Frank Gore Jnr, who health permitting could get some looks. I don't think any other 5'8, 4.69 running back would be getting looks for a waiver claim - even with a strong pre-season behind him but I do think the lineage might tempt some teams in. His dad wasn't big or fast either and was overlooked but is going to end up in Canton at some point. 

 

And then of course there are always the surprises. I'd say of the 10 names listed above 9 were guys you always suspected could be at risk of waiver claims if cut and might not make it through to the practice squad..... the one that stands out is Luke Tenuta who the Bills wasted a 6th round pick on. He looked so stiff in camp and pre-season and it was a shock the Colts claimed him. Even more so that they cut Ryan Van Demark to make room who cleared waivers but landed on the Bills practice squad and eventually made the active roster last season and is on course to do so again this year. Tenuta was waived by the Colts two months later and claimed again by Green Bay where he remains having spent 2023 on IR. 

 

Takeaways:

1. The Bills have been one of the most picked over rosters at cut down day, which speaks to their roster depth even through the summer in recent years;

2. The guys that get claimed are generally at those high volume roster positions - OL, DL, DB;

3. There look to be fewer guys this year who might fall into that category if they are cut. 

 

Hope some of you got to the end of that and it was at least somewhat interesting.  

 

EDIT: should say analysis based on information from nfltraderumours.co who run a yearly tracker. I can't entirely validate its veracity but it seems comprehensive from a quick cross check with the NFL.com's unwieldy waiver tracker page.

Not a lot to add here other than I appreciate the work going into this post. I definitely learned a bunch.

[GASabresIUFan]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Roster cutdown waiver acquisitions it is zero. That doesn't mean he hasn't made claims though. We have been near the back of the waiver queue for all of that period. I'm sure there is one or two in season waiver claims I might be missing - Jordan Phillips the first time back in 2018 was definitely an in-season waiver claim. There probably have been some others since but in terms of cutdown waiver pick ups since 2020 it's zero.

Sam Martin?

[gonzo1105]

49 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Roster cutdown waiver acquisitions it is zero. That doesn't mean he hasn't made claims though. We have been near the back of the waiver queue for all of that period. I'm sure there is one or two in season waiver claims I might be missing - Jordan Phillips the first time back in 2018 was definitely an in-season waiver claim. There probably have been some others since but in terms of cutdown waiver pick ups since 2020 it's zero.

 

Yea that only move I can even recall off the top of my head was the trade for Ryan Bates. I'm sure there is another trade he made where he acquired a guy at cutdown but its very rare someone is coming in.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Sam Martin?

 

Wasn't subject to waivers as a vested vet.

5 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

Yea that only move I can even recall off the top of my head was the trade for Ryan Bates. I'm sure there is another trade he made where he acquired a guy at cutdown but its very rare someone is coming in.

 

Was Bates player for player? Forget who went the other way but think it was.

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wasn't subject to waivers as a vested vet.

 

Was Bates player for player? Forget who went the other way but think it was.

 

Eli Harold, what a win for Beane there.

[HappyDays]

I don't think Andreessen has shown enough in pass coverage to get claimed elsewhere. If anything I am hoping we find the last LB on our roster from another team's cuts. All along I have wanted us to keep 6 LBs to protect against injury and I don't see 6 roster-worthy players in our current room. Honestly I struggle to even see 5.

 

Almost zero chance Gore gets claimed IMO. Last year there were zero RBs claimed after cutdowns. He plays no special teams and has no high end physical traits.

[hondo in seattle]

Nice Job, GB!  Well done!

 

And I think this passes the fan eye test - at least for this mafioso.  It used to feel like if you got cut by the Bills it was a really bad sign for the player.  If even the Bills didn't want you, with our atrocious roster, maybe you just weren't meant for the NFL. 

 

I remember when we fans used to look forward to cut-down day because it we'd pick up players who could help our roster.  Now we dread cut-down day because of the good players we'll bid sayonara to.  

 

I think Beane hasn't built a SB roster - yet.  We don't have enough stars on our offense (currently just one) and our OL has been bad to middling during his tenure.  But he has built a good roster with more depth than what we had during our long & painful drought.  

 

 

Edited August 26 by hondo in seattle

[gonzo1105]

Just now, HappyDays said:

I don't think Andreessen has shown enough in pass coverage to get claimed elsewhere. If anything I am hoping we find the last LB on our roster from another team's cuts. All along I have wanted us to keep 6 LBs to protect against injury and I don't see 6 roster-worthy players in our current room. Honestly I struggle to even see 5.

 

Almost zero chance Gore gets claimed IMO. Last year there were zero RBs claimed after cutdowns. He plays no special teams and has no high end physical traits.

 

I agree on all of these points. Could someone scoop up Andreessen on a bad team and develop him at the back end of the roster while playing ST's sure I guess. I guess Buffalo can do that as well but Gore isn't getting claimed. Every year there is either a RB or WR that Bills fans love in the preseason and think is going to get claimed and doesn't.

[juno999]

Nice work Gunner.  That's a lot of transactional history you spewed out over the past several years.  So, you think the Bills keep 6 DEs with Jonathan being one of them?  He's the one guy I thought might lose out in the numbers game.  Perhaps you're right though.  I don't see many difficult cuts this year.

[Coach Tuesday]

17 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I don't think Andreessen has shown enough in pass coverage to get claimed elsewhere. If anything I am hoping we find the last LB on our roster from another team's cuts. All along I have wanted us to keep 6 LBs to protect against injury and I don't see 6 roster-worthy players in our current room. Honestly I struggle to even see 5.

 

Almost zero chance Gore gets claimed IMO. Last year there were zero RBs claimed after cutdowns. He plays no special teams and has no high end physical traits.

 

The only way Gore gets claimed is if his dad convinces one of his buddies on another team's coaching staff to give him a roster spot.  Highly unlikely but that would be the way.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I've started this thread on the back of an interesting shoutbox conversation last night about whether Bills fans over estimate the quality of their cuts and worry unduly about people who are essentially camp legends in Buffalo but don't register on the NFL landscape otherwise. I think there was certainly a time when that was true when we'd be worrying about losing guys to other teams when we were arguably fielding a bottom 10/12 NFL roster. But I said last night that is no longer true and actually the Bills do a great job with roster depth right through camp. It is something I think contributed to the long pre-season unbeaten run which before the defeat to Carolina in the final pre-season game of 2022 stood at 10 games. Certainly since 2020 when they won their first division title in forever the Bills have had very deep 53 man rosters and deep groups behind that through camp. 

 

That has led to cutdown day resulting in the Bills losing guys they would have liked on their practice squads. I knew they were top 3 in that category, I'd heard that in a podcast but I thought it was with the 49ers and the Ravens... it turns out it is the 49ers and the Jets (anomaly, more to come). Since 2020 the teams who have had the most roster claims on guys waived at cutdown day are:

 

1. Buffalo Bills (10)

2. New York Jets (9)

3. San Francisco 49ers (8)

=4. Kansas City Chiefs (6)

=4. Philadelphia Eagles (6)

 

What do you notice from that? Well the Chiefs (1st), Bills (2nd), 49ers (6th) and Eagles (10th) are among the winning most franchises over that period. That, you would logically assume, means they have strong rosters which makes them harder to crack for rookies and undrafted players which means each summer they are more likely to cut guys other teams think they could use. Why then the Jets? Hard to say. Of their nine, five came in a single year - 2022 - and while it is not immediately obvious why that should be the case there was an element of year 2 of Saleh being a time they cut bait with guys drafted under Adam Gase. I think it is probably just one of those inexplicable anomalies because otherwise the pattern is pretty consistent. Good teams have more guys claimed than bad teams.

 

For those wondering the full list of the 10 Bills claimed:

2020 - Vincent Taylor, Defensive Tackle - claimed by Cleveland Browns

2021 - Jack Anderson, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Philadelphia Eagles

2021 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the Cincinnati Bengals

2022 - Tanner Owen, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the New Orleans Saints

2022 - Luke Tenuta, Offensive Tackle - claimed by the Indianapolis Colts

2022 - Nick McCloud, Defensive Back - claimed by the New York Giants

2022 - Kingsley Jonathon, Defensive End - claimed by the Chicago Bears

2023 - Nick Broeker, Interior Offensive Line - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Alex Austin, Defensive Back - claimed by the Houston Texans

2023 - Zayne Anderson, Defensive Back - claimed by the Green Back Packers

 

I think that in itself is interesting. It breaks down as four offensive line, four defensive backs (including McCloud twice) and two defensive linemen. What do those spots have in common? They are the most numerous spots on NFL rosters. Most teams keep 9 or 10 at each of those spots and that creates greater opportunity. Worth reminding ourselves that in addition to these 10 guys claimed off waivers Brandon Beane has swung late camp trades to recover day 3 picks for the likes of Darryl Johnson (6th rounder), Boogie Basham (6th rounder), Marshall Newhouse (7th rounder) and Russell Bodine (6th rounder). It's also interesting because of where Brandon Beane has deployed draft and free agency dollars. He has brought in a ton of FA vets on both lines, spent a lot of high picks on the defensive line and drafts at least one day 3 defensive back every year (with a reasonable rate of success I might add). The positions where he traditionally hasn't invested so much *cough* wide receiver, you don't see guys who fail to make the Bills roster being desired by other teams - although Isaiah Hodgins was claimed off waivers when the Bills finally released him in 2022 thought that happened later in the season. 

 

What does all of this mean for what happens this week? It will be interesting to observe. My contention all summer has been this camp squad is not as deep as previous years, despite what looks like a decent crop of day 3 picks from the most recent draft. I wonder if that will show itself in the Bills facing fewer roster claims? The majority of the guys I think might be attractive if they hit the waiver wire - Cam Lewis (who I think is still subject because I think he has 3 accrued seasons rather than 4 despite being around longer), Ja'Marcus Ingram, Kingsley Jonathan, Tylan Gable, Alec Anderson, Zach Davidson - are all likely to make the team. So I think the remaining candidates are:

Joe Andreessen who is obviously the most interesting case. Personally I have him making the 53 but if he doesn't the Pittsburgh tape was so good you might get a bottom feeding team who think he is worth taking a chance on. 

Tre' McKitty, who might also make the squad if Quintin Morris goes on IR, but if he doesn't could garner some interest. He cleared waivers when cut by the Chargers last October before the Bills scooped him up for the practice squad, but teams are generally less willing to mess with their rosters at that point of the year and he still has the pedigree of a former third round pick and is a good special teamer.

Frank Gore Jnr, who health permitting could get some looks. I don't think any other 5'8, 4.69 running back would be getting looks for a waiver claim - even with a strong pre-season behind him but I do think the lineage might tempt some teams in. His dad wasn't big or fast either and was overlooked but is going to end up in Canton at some point. 

 

And then of course there are always the surprises. I'd say of the 10 names listed above 9 were guys you always suspected could be at risk of waiver claims if cut and might not make it through to the practice squad..... the one that stands out is Luke Tenuta who the Bills wasted a 6th round pick on. He looked so stiff in camp and pre-season and it was a shock the Colts claimed him. Even more so that they cut Ryan Van Demark to make room who cleared waivers but landed on the Bills practice squad and eventually made the active roster last season and is on course to do so again this year. Tenuta was waived by the Colts two months later and claimed again by Green Bay where he remains having spent 2023 on IR. 

 

Takeaways:

1. The Bills have been one of the most picked over rosters at cut down day, which speaks to their roster depth even through the summer in recent years;

2. The guys that get claimed are generally at those high volume roster positions - OL, DL, DB;

3. There look to be fewer guys this year who might fall into that category if they are cut. 

 

Hope some of you got to the end of that and it was at least somewhat interesting.  

 

EDIT: should say analysis based on information from nfltraderumours.co who run a yearly tracker. I can't entirely validate its veracity but it seems comprehensive from a quick cross check with the NFL.com's unwieldy waiver tracker page.

1) Wow!  That was outstanding.
2) Get outside more lol

[GunnerBill]

36 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I don't think Andreessen has shown enough in pass coverage to get claimed elsewhere. If anything I am hoping we find the last LB on our roster from another team's cuts. All along I have wanted us to keep 6 LBs to protect against injury and I don't see 6 roster-worthy players in our current room. Honestly I struggle to even see 5.

 

Almost zero chance Gore gets claimed IMO. Last year there were zero RBs claimed after cutdowns. He plays no special teams and has no high end physical traits.

 

I would agree on Gore if his name were anything other than Frank Gore junior. I am not saying he will but I think is better than almost zero. Would have to be a team keeping 4 though cos I agree his lack of teams play stops him being your 3rd gameday active.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Wasn't subject to waivers as a vested vet.

 

Was Bates player for player? Forget who went the other way but think it was.

Waiver or vested vet doesn’t matter, 10 players of our were claimed and as far as I can tell, Martin is the only waived/released player that Beane has signed or claimed.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Waiver or vested vet doesn’t matter, 10 players of our were claimed and as far as I can tell, Martin is the only waived/released player that Beane has signed or claimed.

 

Sure. But that is why I said zero. I was talking specifically about the waiver process.