Our offense is better in 2024 if 2 guys take a step forward

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Allen is the only QB in the NFL comparable to Mahomes. It's not misguided 

 

Joe Marino. I know Dane Brugler said it but I couldn't pull up the Beast from that year.

 

Here's a quote from Daniel Jeremiah on him:

Enough good can equal great. While Shakir does not stand out in any one area, the Boise State receiver meets every baseline when it comes to his size, athleticism and college production.

 

That's 5. I'm sorry. With all due respect, those guys have more scouting credibility than you.

 

That quote from DJ doesn't say he can play outside. Sorry. And then you have a quote you claim exists but can't find from Brugler. I know what Joe thinks about Shakir playing outside, because I've asked him about it. He is slightly more optimistic about him outside than me but there isn't a big difference. My view is sure you can line Shakir up outside and run some horizontal routes when you are in 2 receiver sets but you can't expect him to win outside for you where a corner has outside leverage because of his extremely short arms (like 1st percentile) for the position and isn't a great precision route runner either. He is a good slot player - and I liked him quite a bit pre-draft I had a late 3rd on him - because he has really good short area quickness, he is a sharp cutter and ball in hand in space there are few guys in the league with the elusiveness he has. Joe's view isn't radically different than that. He thinks he can be a spot player outside who you design some shot plays for and could get you out of a game. But he doesn't think you could rely on him as a majority outside guy. 

 

And most importantly - let's look at what the Bills think. In his, admittedly more limited, usage as a rookie he was exactly 50/50 inside and outside. In 2023 that switched to just 22% outside usage and even in games where one or other of our outside starters missed the highest single game % for Shakir outside was 32%. They have come to the same conclusion I have. You can line him up outside the numbers in 2 receiver sets, but you can't use him outside in any real downfield capacity (and actually the number of times he was targeted as an outside receiver was less than 10% of his total snaps in 2023). His success comes inside and that is for good reason. That is where his skillset is best suited. 

[BobbyC81]

Morse may have been a good leader and good with line calls but I got sick of seeing DTs push him back into Josh’s face.

 

Let’s see how McGovern does. I don’t expect a drop off.

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I started to type something, but realized there's only one appropriate response:

 

 

If you understood irony, you would laugh at this post as I am.

 

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Allen is the only QB in the NFL comparable to Mahomes. It's not misguided 

 

Joe Marino. I know Dane Brugler said it but I couldn't pull up the Beast from that year.

 

Here's a quote from Daniel Jeremiah on him:

Enough good can equal great. While Shakir does not stand out in any one area, the Boise State receiver meets every baseline when it comes to his size, athleticism and college production.

 

That's 5. I'm sorry. With all due respect, those guys have more scouting credibility than you.

 

What is the scouting report for Ty?  Or in 5 years there still isn't enough film on him?

[26TrapDraw]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Disagree emphatically. 

 

If the offense is the issue, then you're at best the 2022 & 2023 (and hopefully the 2024) NY Jets. 

 

If the 2024 Bills' offense is "the issue," then we're cooked. A Josh Allen offense cannot be the lesser side of the ball unless somehow Bobby Babich's unrivaled genius suddenly catapults his defense to the top of DVOA and NFL rankings down the stretch and throughout the playoffs, even against elite QBs. 

 

You wish the Bills offense was worse than their defense? That's bonkers. 

Maybe I wasn’t clear. I’m nowhere near as worried about our offense as I am our Defense.

[90sBills]

5 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Allen is the only QB in the NFL comparable to Mahomes. It's not misguided 

 

Then why haven’t they gotten to the big game with better receivers and how would they now in a transition year with worse receivers?

[MDH]

14 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Then why haven’t they gotten to the big game with better receivers and how would they now in a transition year with worse receivers?

Defensive performance in the playoffs, plain and simple. The Bills’ D, either do to players, coaches or injuries has not produced like the KC D. Football is a team game…

 

There’s also the idea of trying to use such a small sample size as playoff football to justify a take, why not use the much larger sample size of “all games played.”

[DCofNC]

On 8/21/2024 at 8:44 AM, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Khalil is going over 100 catches. So is Dalton. Honestly I think people are just having a hard time adjusting to the nontraditional nature of this roster. Myself included. 
Just have to stay healthy.

I’ll preface this with saying, I hope I’m super wrong and have to go shoot an actual crow to eat. 
 

Shakir is not likely to suddenly become Andre Reed.  He will be lucky to reach Cole Beasley/John Brown levels of success.  If he manages to just eat up Davis’ catches and 20% of Diggs, that would be a HUGE success.   On the MOST optimistic thought I can come up with, if he gets 85 catches for ~1000 yards, he’s had a remarkable year. 
 

Kincaid is going to come down to how they use him.  Is he really just going to be a WR or are they going to leave him in to block half the time?  100 catches is a BIG task, averaging about 6 a game.   Can he? Absolutely.  But don’t forget they intend to pass less, run more, and have Knox to eat up 40ish TE catches.  If they cut Kincaid loose and let him serve as a giant slot, cool, he can get 100.  If he does that, it eats up the touches for Shakir. 
 

The question is going to become, how will they keep teams from jamming the box and taking away everything they want to do.  There is zero threat to take the top off.  So that task may be left to Shakir.  Samuel has speed, but he’s also not typically a deep route guy, Hamler is no lock to make the roster, nor is Isabella, MVS, or anyone else with fear inducing speed.  Coleman and Hollins basically are possession guys, all working in the same presumed zones as Kincaid/Knox.   I’m pretty confident Brady is smarter than I am and has a plan for this, but everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.  So let’s hope it is a good one.

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Then why haven’t they gotten to the big game with better receivers and how would they now in a transition year with worse receivers?

 

The Bills offense isn't what's prevented Buffalo from advancing in the playoffs. Actually, the offense had one of its best games in the divisional round against KC when Gabe was out and Diggs was MIA.

[BullBuchanan]

16 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

RBs 2023

Cook, aging Murray, Ty Johnson picked up as season starts

RBs 2024

Cook, Davis, Ty Johnson with a year in the system

 

2024>>>2023

 

OL 2023

Dion, McGovern, Morse, Cybo (rookie), Brown

OL 2024

Dion, Edwards, McGovern, Cybo, Brown

 

2024<<<<2023 I'm putting this all on the question mark that McGovern is at Center and Edwards is at Guard.  Cybo at RG should be pretty awesome this year.  Dawkins should be his usual reliable self.  Brown is playing for a contract.  There's a pretty good chance this group this year is better, but it's just unknown right now.

 

TEs 2023

Kincaid (rookie), Knox (injured), Morris

TEs 2024

Kincaid (year 2 & a focal point), Knox (healthy... hopefully), Morris &/or Davidson

 

2024>>>>>2023

 

WRs 2023

Diggs, Davis, Shakir, Sherfield, Harty

WRs 2024

Shakir, Samuel, Coleman, Holins, ?????????

 

2024=====2023 I would argue 2024 is better, but benefit of the doubt they're equal until we see it. I mean... I get that Diggs was Elite & Davis was productive, but Samuel has been a more productive player (when healthy) over the course of his career.  And if Shakir was the #3 last year and it's Coleman/Hollins we're considering as replaced production... I don't know who really things the 2 of them can't outproduce what Shakir did together.  Who knows about WR #5, but seems inconsequential.

Diggs >> Shakir

Davis <<< Samuel

Shakir << Hollins/Coleman

 

Far, far less talent? You're being hyperbolic.

 

19 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I don't see how we have "far, far less talent."

 

• The OL is mostly the same as last year.  Let's call that a wash.
• Josh is still the QB.  And Josh says his mechanics were off last year because of his elbow injury.  He just might be better this year.
• The RBs will still be led by Cook but the guys  behind him, notably Davis, may be better than last year.
• The TEs are the same.  But Kincaid was a rookie still learning the offense and NFL last year.  Knox was hurt.  The TEs should be better this year.
• Shakir is still one of the wideouts but it seems his career is on an upward trajectory.  He may be better this year.
• Samuel is better than Davis (more versatile, higher catch %, more separation).  
• Coleman is worse than Diggs.  So is Mack Hollins, or whoever you want to count as Diggs' replacement.   
• The backup wideouts seem to be an improvement over last year. 

The drop off from Diggs to Coleman/Hollins is a real concern but we don't know yet how good Coleman is.  

 

Everywhere else, we're either better or the same.  

We've downgraded at both Center and left Guard as of now, if camp reports about McGovern's struggles are to be believed. I wasn't at all opposed from moving on from Morse, but the lack of planning there was ridiculous.

As for WR, We lost our top 2 receivers from last year and replaced them with our #3 and a rookie. Those 2 WRs + Shahkir accounted for 2500 yards and 17 touchdowns. Shakir's best year so far is 600 yards and 2 TDs nad Samuel is 850 and 5 TDs. Let's say Shakir hits 1000 yards and Samuel bests his career.  You're still looking for a 10 TD improvement.

That is massive. To date JA has not only been an elite QB for us, but he's been our best skill position player with 15 rushing touchdowns last year alone. He doesn't have much room to increase that number (which is far above his average), so if that comes down at all, those scores will have to be absorbed somewhere else. Who is going to do that? The rookie? Mack Hollins? Maybe Dalton Kincaid adds 4 - you're still down 6.

This is of course forgetting that last years team wasn't anywhere near the top 4 teams. We don't just need to hit last year's level, we need to surpass it.

I love what I've seen out of Shakir so far, but if you want to act like he's going to combine with Samuel for 2000 yards and 20TDs, you might as well just write these posts in crayon.

my prediction:

Shakir 850/6
Samuel 650/5
Kincaid 950/5
Allen returns to the mean with 9 rushing TDs

Bills win 10-11 games thanks largely to divisional dominance and my prediction for a soft NFC west outside of the 49ers.
They falter again in January and don't make it past the divisional round as they look outclassed against the Texans or Chiefs.

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, MDH said:

Defensive performance in the playoffs, plain and simple. The Bills’ D, either do to players, coaches or injuries has not produced like the KC D. Football is a team game…

 

There’s also the idea of trying to use such a small sample size as playoff football to justify a take, why not use the much larger sample size of “all games played.”

Ok all fair points. So how have those issues improved where a Super Bowl is possible this season? That is the discussion here. 

[90sBills]

47 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

The Bills offense isn't what's prevented Buffalo from advancing in the playoffs. Actually, the offense had one of its best games in the divisional round against KC when Gabe was out and Diggs was MIA.

Offense had the ball last in that game. But I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your point. So you’re saying defense has come up short. How has the defense improved going into this season that would propel this team with Allen and a lesser receiving corp into the Super Bowl?

 

As great as Allen is this will be a transition year. Bills will probably win the division to make the playoffs but bow out as usual. I’m predicting a wildcard round exit. Next season is the better shot of a championship run. Imo. 

[MDH]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Ok all fair points. So how have those issues improved where a Super Bowl is possible this season? That is the discussion here. 

I was only responding to your response about Allen and the potential for this offense to do something similar the KC the past two years, that’s all.

 

I still have plenty of concerns about this team, particularly the defense, when it comes to crunch time against good teams. I also expect the Bills O to struggle early in the season while they try to integrate a lot of new players and kinda/sorta a new offense. However I expect the O to get things together by game 5-6, though with this schedule that might be too late…

 

 

 

 

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, MDH said:

I was only responding to your response about Allen and the potential for this offense to do something similar the KC the past two years, that’s all.

 

I still have plenty of concerns about this team, particularly the defense, when it comes to crunch time against good teams. I also expect the Bills O to struggle early in the season while they try to integrate a lot of new players and kinda/sorta a new offense. However I expect the O to get things together by game 5-6, though with this schedule that might be too late…

 

 

 

 

So was I to the OP. The past two years KC ended up winning two Super Bowl trophies and Mahomes won MVP in the first year of changing receivers.

 

My point was Bills couldn’t reach the Super Bowl with more talented receivers how will they do it with lesser talent? I don’t see that happening here this season.

 

[BigAl2526]

I don't think Ty Johnson will be a lot better than he was a year ago.  Assuming he had the playbook learned last year, I think running back performance is incredibly dependent on talent.  Yes, you can teach blocking and ball security to an extent, along with route running in the passing game.  When it comes to running the ball, you either can or can't.  That's different from an offensive lineman.  Yes, a tackle or guard needs talent, but there is a far longer learning curve for technique than for a running back. 

[ProcessTruster]

On 8/21/2024 at 3:37 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Khalil Shakir & Dalton Kincaid 

 

I can't believe the attitude around here. 

 

This is unreal. OL is same minus Morse plus McGovern at Center and Edwards at Guard. Possibly a downgrade at Center but I actually think Edwards is a better Guard.

 

RB upgrade by a lot. Ty Johnson for the full year at RB3. Ray Davis upgrade over Murray. Cook... let's just hope he fixed his hands.

 

WRs... well... what do we say? Diggs was All Pro 1st half last season but Houdini in the 2nd half. Gabe was just not very good... in fact I think he was largely responsible for our passing woes and multiple turnovers. Sherfield & Harty... really???

 

It might not even be Coleman who upgrades over Davis. It might be Hollins. But then one of those 2 has to upgrade on Sherf... oh yeah... there's still Curtis Samuel. Turf toe sounds like it's just been there for him and he's already played with it.

 

Sounds like Shakir is ready to explode. Anyone like me planning on grabbing him in fantasy? 

 

Last we have Kincaid. It's weirdly the most talked about yet most underrated aspect of the 2024 Bills. Everyone believes he's about to get 100+ targets at least, right?

 

Well... if we think Chiefs formula, how do you prefer MVS, JuJu, Pacheco, CEH, & Kelce over Shakir, Samuel, Cook, Davis & Kincaid? That's without Coleman & Hollins, obviously.

 

That was the crew Mahomes won league MVP with while putting up gaudy numbers after losing Tyreek Hill.

 

I'm sorry. Lots of questions this year. But I'm more excited about this season with the "good vibes" than is apparently reasonable. Injuries suck, but they're happening early. And every team gets them

I'll go with it.  Sure, why not.  JA may need to put the cape on more than not this year, tho.  Which will be fun.  

 

[major]

Do you think we will be a run first offense this year?? Only asking due to receiving corps

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

We've downgraded at both Center and left Guard as of now, if camp reports about McGovern's struggles are to be believed. I wasn't at all opposed from moving on from Morse, but the lack of planning there was ridiculous.

As for WR, We lost our top 2 receivers from last year and replaced them with our #3 and a rookie. Those 2 WRs + Shahkir accounted for 2500 yards and 17 touchdowns. Shakir's best year so far is 600 yards and 2 TDs nad Samuel is 850 and 5 TDs. Let's say Shakir hits 1000 yards and Samuel bests his career.  You're still looking for a 10 TD improvement.

That is massive. To date JA has not only been an elite QB for us, but he's been our best skill position player with 15 rushing touchdowns last year alone. He doesn't have much room to increase that number (which is far above his average), so if that comes down at all, those scores will have to be absorbed somewhere else. Who is going to do that? The rookie? Mack Hollins? Maybe Dalton Kincaid adds 4 - you're still down 6.

This is of course forgetting that last years team wasn't anywhere near the top 4 teams. We don't just need to hit last year's level, we need to surpass it.

I love what I've seen out of Shakir so far, but if you want to act like he's going to combine with Samuel for 2000 yards and 20TDs, you might as well just write these posts in crayon.

my prediction:

Shakir 850/6
Samuel 650/5
Kincaid 950/5
Allen returns to the mean with 9 rushing TDs

Bills win 10-11 games thanks largely to divisional dominance and my prediction for a soft NFC west outside of the 49ers.
They falter again in January and don't make it past the divisional round as they look outclassed against the Texans or Chiefs.

 

I agree with the Center downgrade, though we'll know when the season starts.  Reports are that the snapping issues have gone away so maybe they just needed to feel eachother out.  Edwards very well might actually be an upgrade over McGovern.  Remember he started the position with a Super Bowl winning team and played for Kromer.

 

Dude, if Shakir tops 1000 yards and Samuel has the best year of his career, this offense will be FIYAH!!!!

 

I really think you're overvaluing Gabe.  Even Diggs pulled a disappearing act after Brady took over.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Offense had the ball last in that game. But I’m not necessarily disagreeing with your point. So you’re saying defense has come up short. How has the defense improved going into this season that would propel this team with Allen and a lesser receiving corp into the Super Bowl?

 

As great as Allen is this will be a transition year. Bills will probably win the division to make the playoffs but bow out as usual. I’m predicting a wildcard round exit. Next season is the better shot of a championship run. Imo. 

 

First of all, Kansas City had the ball last, not Buffalo.  On Buffalo's last drive Diggs dropped a bomb from Allen that would have been a GW TD or at least the go-ahead score.  Despite that, the offense was still productive enough to move all the way into the red zone, and if not for Dawkins getting mauled by Chris Jones, Allen throws the go-ahead TD to Shakir.  But he still got us into game tying territory if not for Bass having the Yips last year.

 

As for all the other stuff you said, this was a thread about the offense, not the defense or how far the team advances in the playoffs.  That's for other threads.  I just said that our offense this year will be better if Shakir and Kincaid progress, which I think they will.

[90sBills]

14 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

First of all, Kansas City had the ball last, not Buffalo.  On Buffalo's last drive Diggs dropped a bomb from Allen that would have been a GW TD or at least the go-ahead score.  Despite that, the offense was still productive enough to move all the way into the red zone, and if not for Dawkins getting mauled by Chris Jones, Allen throws the go-ahead TD to Shakir.  But he still got us into game tying territory if not for Bass having the Yips last year.

 

As for all the other stuff you said, this was a thread about the offense, not the defense or how far the team advances in the playoffs.  That's for other threads.  I just said that our offense this year will be better if Shakir and Kincaid progress, which I think they will.

I thought you’re an avid football fan so I didn’t feel the need to be specific. Let’s try again. The offense had the ball to win the game and failed. Is that better?

 

You’re the one that said since we have Allen we’d be as successful with this receiving transition as KC was with theirs. I don’t think that will be the case. Let’s see how it goes. 

[transplantbillsfan]

52 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

I thought you’re an avid football fan so I didn’t feel the need to be specific. Let’s try again. The offense had the ball to win the game and failed. Is that better?

 

Yep. It is

 

52 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

 

You’re the one that said since we have Allen we’d be as successful with this receiving transition as KC was with theirs. I don’t think that will be the case. Let’s see how it goes. 

 

Yep.  I did.  And the WRs that most let the team down in that KC game are no longer on the team.