Our offense is better in 2024 if 2 guys take a step forward

[Teddy KGB]

You thought Tyrod was good 

 

Can’t trust any cheerleader takes 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

All good stuff but not one mention of the Defense?!? It's the D that needs to help us man, not the O.

When is the defense going to deliver in the playoffs? When is the defense going to stay healthy?  Are we forced to load manage like the NBA?  

[Dillenger4]

9 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

When is the defense going to deliver in the playoffs? When is the defense going to stay healthy?  Are we forced to load manage like the NBA?  

Exactly

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Khalil Shakir & Dalton Kincaid 

 

I can't believe the attitude around here. 

 

This is unreal. OL is same minus Morse plus McGovern at Center and Edwards at Guard. Possibly a downgrade at Center but I actually think Edwards is a better Guard.

 

RB upgrade by a lot. Ty Johnson for the full year at RB3. Ray Davis upgrade over Murray. Cook... let's just hope he fixed his hands.

 

WRs... well... what do we say? Diggs was All Pro 1st half last season but Houdini in the 2nd half. Gabe was just not very good... in fact I think he was largely responsible for our passing woes and multiple turnovers. Sherfield & Harty... really???

 

It might not even be Coleman who upgrades over Davis. It might be Hollins. But then one of those 2 has to upgrade on Sherf... oh yeah... there's still Curtis Samuel. Turf toe sounds like it's just been there for him and he's already played with it.

 

Sounds like Shakir is ready to explode. Anyone like me planning on grabbing him in fantasy? 

 

Last we have Kincaid. It's weirdly the most talked about yet most underrated aspect of the 2024 Bills. Everyone believes he's about to get 100+ targets at least, right?

 

Well... if we think Chiefs formula, how do you prefer MVS, JuJu, Pacheco, CEH, & Kelce over Shakir, Samuel, Cook, Davis & Kincaid? That's without Coleman & Hollins, obviously.

 

That was the crew Mahomes won league MVP with while putting up gaudy numbers after losing Tyreek Hill.

 

I'm sorry. Lots of questions this year. But I'm more excited about this season with the "good vibes" than is apparently reasonable. Injuries suck, but they're happening early. And every team gets them

Not to mention Torrence going into his 2nd year. I think he will be a dominant guard when he puts it all together. I think the O-line could have slightly worse pass protection, but the run blocking will be much better. There’s a reason they went after Ray Davis. Give Josh a solid running game and it takes so much pressure off of him to make insane plays to get the 1st down. I don’t get the pessimistic attitudes either. People think we are fielding the same exact team as last year minus Diggs, Morse, & Davis, but fail to understand that the young players we have get better with experience. Some might even break to become elite. Look at Terrell Bernard who 75% of the board (including myself) thought was going to be a massive downgrade from Tremaine Edmunds. He actually turned to he even better. 

[Bangarang]

Mack Hollins is 30 years old and has been in the league for 7 years already. In those 7 years, his career high in receiving yards is 690. The rest of those years he's failed to have more than 251 receiving yards and now you think he could suddenly be an upgrade to Gabe? 

 

It seems like Shakir and/or Kincaid are going to need monster years for this offense to be one of the league's best. I'm skeptical right now. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

It’s on Brady.

[BullBuchanan]

You have like 20 of these copium threads every year and your "predictions" never come to fruition. Probably because they aren't based in reality. Both Kincaid and Shakir should take a step forward this year, but even with a very significant one, we'll still have far, far less talent on offense than we did last season.

[oldmanfan]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

You have like 20 of these copium threads every year and your "predictions" never come to fruition. Probably because they aren't based in reality. Both Kincaid and Shakir should take a step forward this year, but even with a very significant one, we'll still have far, far less talent on offense than we did last season.

Depends what part of last year.

[Alphadawg7]

While I agree that for the offense to be better than last year, it will take Kincaid and Shakir continuing to ascend in their bigger roles this year.  But it’s not just them IMHO, but also a large part of this falls in the shoulders of Brady.  
 

He’s rolling out his offense this year and it comes with a new philosophy of “everyone eats” this year, which means it’s going to be also integral that he gets Keon, Samuel, our RBs, etc all involved and in positions to succeed as well.  
 

More importantly, he needs to help out Josh in position to successful and make good decisions to reduce the turnovers.

Edited August 21 by Alphadawg7

[Royale with Cheese]

We're going to need more than that.

 

We are going to need some production where it's least a legitimate threat on the outside.  We can't just have the defense take away the middle and we're cooked.

 

[gonzo1105]

I think people can’t fathom the idea of a TE being a # 1 here because the Bills and their fans haven’t exactly seen a rich history here. 
 

I agree this season will ride on how much Kincaid and Shakir jump. The RBs, both Cook and Davis I expect to catch a lot of passes as well. 
 

I do also believe that the Bills will use one of their top 3 picks next year on another pass catcher as well to go along with what they have now

[GASabresIUFan]

Who are Josh’s top 3 returning receivers?  They are Kincaid, Cook and Shakir.  Each caught 80%+ of their targets last season.  Who do you think are going to be his top targets this year?  Cook will lead in targets out of backfield and Shakir and Kincaid will be the top 2 targets overall.  
 

Shakir is basically a clone of Diggs.  He has the same height, weight, but Shakir is a little faster.  Shakir had 17 chunk plays on only 45 targets.  He average 15.7 yards a catch for 611 yards. What is going to do with 90 targets as both an inside and outside threat?  
 

Kincaid had 90 targets last season and gained 673 yards as a rookie.   Mahomes targets Kelce 120-150 times a season.  What can Kincaid do with 120 targets? 1000 yards+? 
 

Don’t forget that we have to redistribute 300+ targets from last season (Diggs-160, Davis-81, Murray, Hardy & Sherfield-65).  Adding 45 to Shakir and 30 to Kincaid, leaves plenty of opportunity for Samuel, Coleman, Knox, Davis etc….  
 

I’m not worried about the offense in the slightest.  

[GoBills808]

It's very tough having to read 'why is this board so negative' and then 'shakir is basically a clone of diggs' in back to back threads 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

So Shakir out playing Diggs for the last half of the season is a jag in your eyes, and Kincaid is a jag in your eyes, Knox with seven post season TDs compared to Diggs two post season TDs. Yeah he sucks too…, 

 

It will be a combination of Josh being his great QB self and our receivers who as well will out perform many folks here’s expectations. 

 

Get a grip people …

To be fair, Shakir did that with Diggs on the field. Do you think defenses will allow him to get open as much with no other credible WR threat? And that's not taking anything away from Shakir. He catches almost everything though people conviently forget his brutal playoff drop against the Dolphins. 

Kincaid and Knox will be sensational this year. 

Shakir if used like Edelman, Welker, Beasley can get 100 catches. Up to Brady and Allen to feed him the ball. 

 

[hondo in seattle]

53 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

It’s on Brady.

 

Agree 1000%.   If he steps up, we'll be okay.  If he doesn't, the Bills will be watching the playoffs on TV.  

[Success]

The running game stands a chance of being MUCH better, also.  Really like what I'm seeing from Davis.

 

And the D stands to be better if Groot takes a step, and Von gets back to any kind of effectiveness.

 

[PurpLegacy]

4 hours ago, Captain_Quint said:

I see alot of teams stacking the box against us and needing to be able to run against a full box to be successful. We have zero receiving threats at this point unless you want to count Shakir in the slot (which is a borderline 'threat'). I think Kincaid can do some damage, but he isn't a speed guy. The safeties and CBs will be pressing coverage and playing the run. 

 

Josh will need to check down and put together 10-15 play drives with nominal threats downfield. 

 

I think it will take Brady being able to gameplan like he's a top 5 OC in the league and keeping opponents on their heels for 18 weeks plus playoffs. 

 

If Brady and Josh can do that, they'll be in the talks for MVP and coach of the year. 

@Captain_Quint God, I hope defenses do this against us, 8 defenders in the box with Samuel (4.31 40) outside and Shakir (4.43 40) anywhere in the slot. Josh would destroy this defense. That would leave 1 safety high, 1 on 1 WR matchups and either Coleman or Kincaid leaving linebackers in the dust. It doesn't take a top 5 OC to beat this defense...all it takes is a QB with a cannon arm, two fast WRs, and a WR/TE with reliable hands. 

[Billl]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Shakir is basically a clone of Diggs.  He has the same height, weight, but Shakir is a little faster.  Shakir had 17 chunk plays on only 45 targets.  He average 15.7 yards a catch for 611 yards. What is going to do with 90 targets as both an inside and outside threat?  
 

Kincaid had 90 targets last season and gained 673 yards as a rookie.   Mahomes targets Kelce 120-150 times a season.  What can Kincaid do with 120 targets? 1000 yards+? 
 

Don’t forget that we have to redistribute 300+ targets from last season (Diggs-160, Davis-81, Murray, Hardy & Sherfield-65).  Adding 45 to Shakir and 30 to Kincaid, leaves plenty of opportunity for Samuel, Coleman, Knox, Davis etc….  

Let’s say that Shakir gets twice as many targets and manages to gain twice as many yards and quadruple his touchdowns.  That puts him at what Diggs produced last year.

 

Let’s also say that Kincaid gets 20% more targets and increases his yardage by 20% while tripling his touchdowns.  That puts him at what Davis produced last year.

 

Now let’s say that there’s still enough targets for Samuel to maintain his production from last year.  That puts him at what Shakir produced last year.  

 

That leaves Kincaid’s production from last year to be replaced by Coleman just to get back to even.

 

That’s the roadmap.  It’s possible, but it’s going to require everything to go perfectly including the backs to still contribute 650+ yards receiving.  

[The Jokeman]

5 hours ago, JohnNord said:

The only answer is Josh Allen.  I’m not saying it’s fair, but it’s true.  Take a look at the WR roster.  The Bills are clearly counting on Josh to elevate the talent rather than the other around.  

and if you've followed Josh's career he seemingly does that. Yes, he's had better talents around him but he does seemingly elevate the guys around him too. Not saying he'll turn Hollis into a Pro Bowler but I wouldn't be shocked Khalil becomes a 1000 yard receiver if he can stay healthy. 

[GASabresIUFan]

22 minutes ago, Billl said:

Let’s say that Shakir gets twice as many targets and manages to gain twice as many yards and quadruple his touchdowns.  That puts him at what Diggs produced last year.

 

Let’s also say that Kincaid gets 20% more targets and increases his yardage by 20% while tripling his touchdowns.  That puts him at what Davis produced last year.

 

Now let’s say that there’s still enough targets for Samuel to maintain his production from last year.  That puts him at what Shakir produced last year.  

 

That leaves Kincaid’s production from last year to be replaced by Coleman just to get back to even.

 

That’s the roadmap.  It’s possible, but it’s going to require everything to go perfectly including the backs to still contribute 650+ yards receiving.  

If Shakir equals Diggs’ production with 70 less targets, that a huge win for the Bills.  Comparing Kincaid to Davis is a mistake. Completely different players playing different positions.  I also project Kincaid to get at 33% more to touches than last year.  
 

The truth is we don’t need the receivers and RBs to produce more as a group than what they produced last year.  Our top 5 pass catchers last year caught passes for 3658 yards.  I don’t see why our top 5 pass catchers can’t exceed that number.  If Shakir catches 80 balls and keeps close to last year’s 15.7 yards per catch, that 1200 yards.  Kincaid should see 33 to 40% more balls which should get him to 1000 yards.   Cook is good for at least the 450 he had last year.  Samuel averaged over 625 yards the last 2 season with Sam Howell throwing him the ball.  He should see 90+ targets in the new offense.  He caught about 70% of his targets in Washington’s offense.  Last time Samuel played for Brady he caught 80% of his targets and he produced 1000 yards for offense.  If he can get to 750 yards that would be a solid result as the Bills 3rd receiving options.  Davis had 600 yards as a rookie. Coleman is a better player, and his number should be at least that good.

 

All told that’s 4000 yards from our top 5 options with better depth options than last year.  A finally healthy Knox should be better than last year and more involved in the offense.  Hollins and Davis are significant upgrades Harty and Murray. Those 3 gave us 450 yards. Knox, Hollins and Davis have the talent to give us 800 yards+.