(Trigger Warning) Haven’t been this disinterested in an upcoming Bills season in a long time

[Billsflyer12]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah. Not so.

 

You said, "They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2," and actually nobody does that.

 

The Bills have used a first (Diggs) and traded another 1st back to a very early second (Keon) and a 2nd for Zay Jones in 2017.

 

The Chiefs used a 1st in 2019 for Mecole, a 1st for Worthy this year and a 2nd for Skyy Moore in 2022, and that also goes all the way back to 2017.

 

Pretending those are more than very slightly different is flat-out ridiculous.

 

The Bengals used a 2024 3rd for Jermaine Burton, a 2021 1st for Chase, a 2020 2nd for Higgins and a 2017 1st for John Ross. That's a difference, basically, of one 3rd rounder more, in eight years of drafting. The difference is that they sucked and so had a 5 pick to use on Chase. #5s are more likely to be dominant than the late rounders.

 

The Eagles? A 1st in 2021 (DeVonta) and 2020 (Raegor), a 3rd in 2019 (Arcega-Whiteside). That's it since 2017. Again, extremely comparable to the Bills.

 

9ers? A 2024 1st in Pearsall, a 2023 3rd (Danny Gray), a 2020 1st in Aiyuk and a 2019 2nd in Deebo and 3rd in Jalen Hurd. And a 2018 2nd in Dante Pettis. That's more than the Bills.

 

The Bills thought they had Diggs again this year. When they didn't, guess what, they targeted an early WR. This is how teams work, they look at what they need, and they hope for needs to meet what's available when they pick, and sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn't.

 

When you only look at two or three years you're deeply bending what you're looking at, because of a low sample size. 

 

 

Keon being the only day 1 or 2 WR draft pick for Brandon Beane is just a fact, not debatable.  GMBB and HCSM have drafted 6 defensive lineman vs 1 WR in the 1st 3 rounds.  They have drafted 3 RBs in the 1st 3 rounds, did they need to draft Zach Moss the year after drafting Motor?

 

Your also missing the larger point.  This GM and HC have failed at trying to surround Josh with elite weapons.  Every team I listed whether through trade or drafting have not stopped trying to acquire weapons for their top QB.  Eagles traded for former 1st rounder Dotson just this morning.

Edited August 22 by Billsflyer12

[GoBills808]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, our defense has been damn good in the playoffs when not playing the Chiefs. And who in this period has been good against the Chiefs offense?

 

 

Bengals defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 23.4 ppg against, allow 5.5 ypp

Niners defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 28 ppg against, allow 5.55 ypp

Ravens defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 17 ppg against, allow 4.4 ypp

 

...Bills defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 35.6 ppg against, allow 7.4 ypp

 

 

[Figster]

Opposite for me OP,

 

Almost feels like a fresh start. The Joe Brady O will be complimentary to what McD wants to accomplish on Defense. 

 

Buffalo is built and schemed to smash the opposition in the mouth over and over again.

 

We are the Bills!

 

Resistance is futile!!!

 

I billieve

[harmonkillebrew]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah. Not so.

 

You said, "They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2," and actually nobody does that.

 

The Bills have used a first (Diggs) and traded another 1st back to a very early second (Keon) and a 2nd for Zay Jones in 2017.

 

The Chiefs used a 1st in 2019 for Mecole, a 1st for Worthy this year and a 2nd for Skyy Moore in 2022, and that also goes all the way back to 2017.

 

Pretending those are more than very slightly different is flat-out ridiculous.

 

The Bengals used a 2024 3rd for Jermaine Burton, a 2021 1st for Chase, a 2020 2nd for Higgins and a 2017 1st for John Ross. That's a difference, basically, of one 3rd rounder more, in eight years of drafting. The difference is that they sucked and so had a 5 pick to use on Chase. #5s are more likely to be dominant than the late rounders.

 

The Eagles? A 1st in 2021 (DeVonta) and 2020 (Raegor), a 3rd in 2019 (Arcega-Whiteside). That's it since 2017. Again, extremely comparable to the Bills.

 

9ers? A 2024 1st in Pearsall, a 2023 3rd (Danny Gray), a 2020 1st in Aiyuk and a 2019 2nd in Deebo and 3rd in Jalen Hurd. And a 2018 2nd in Dante Pettis. That's more than the Bills.

 

The Bills thought they had Diggs again this year. When they didn't, guess what, they targeted an early WR. This is how teams work, they look at what they need, and they hope for needs to meet what's available when they pick, and sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn't.

 

When you only look at two or three years you're deeply bending what you're looking at, because of a low sample size. 

 

 

You missed out on the Eagles, they traded a 1st (and 4th?) for AJ Brown

You also have to compare the decisions teams made despite already having talent at WR.

Bengals had Boyd and Higgins and still drafted Chase.

Chiefs had Tyreek Hill and Kelce and still drafted Hardman.

Niners got Pearsall on top of Aiyuk and Deebo.

Meanwhile Bills didn't draft a WR until Keon, but after they already got rid of Diggs (and Davis)

[Figster]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Bengals defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 23.4 ppg against, allow 5.5 ypp

Niners defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 28 ppg against, allow 5.55 ypp

Ravens defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 17 ppg against, allow 4.4 ypp

 

...Bills defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 35.6 ppg against, allow 7.4 ypp

 

 

Ouch

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Keon being the only day 1 or 2 WR draft pick for Brandon Beane is just a fact, not debatable.  GMBB and HCSM have drafted 6 defensive lineman vs 1 WR in the 1st 3 rounds.  They have drafted 3 RBs in the 1st 3 rounds, did they need to draft Zach Moss the year after drafting Motor?

 

Your also missing the larger point.  This GM and HC have failed at trying to surround Josh with elite weapons.  Every team I listed whether through trade or drafting have not stopped trying to acquire weapons for their top QB.  Eagles traded for former 1st rounder Dotson just this morning.

 

 

It's a fact, but at the same time, it is spin, as in spinning like a dreidel.

 

You used THREE, not one but three separate weasel words there attempting to unreasonably narrow consideration so as to gerrymander out times the Bills have done exactly this:

1)  Yeah, if you say "WR draft pick" you can pretend that the Bills didn't trade for Diggs using a pick like that.

2)  Yeah, if you say, "WR" you can pretend that the Bills didn't use a 1st rounder on Kincaid, who seems like he's going to be a terrific weapon.

3)  Yeah, if you say "for Brandon Beane," you can ignore the #2 that this McDermott brain trust used to bring in Zay Jones

 

Since 2017 we've been very much in line with those other teams the guy I was replying to mentioned.

 

And it's absolute nonsense that they "have failed at trying to surround Josh with elite weapons," nonsense. Diggs was an elite weapon. Kincaid may well be one. And pretending that "Dotson" should be considered an "elite weapon," I mean, dude, please.

 

Yeah, every team has not "stopped trying to acquire weapons." Well, yeah. Neither have we. If Dotson is going to be used as your example of bringing in a weapon, then the Bills have done an absolute ton of that over the years. Samuel, Cook, Shakir, Davis and Knox are all weapons if you're using Dotson as an example.

[Thurman#1]

19 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Bengals defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 23.4 ppg against, allow 5.5 ypp

Niners defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 28 ppg against, allow 5.55 ypp

Ravens defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 17 ppg against, allow 4.4 ypp

 

...Bills defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 35.6 ppg against, allow 7.4 ypp

 

 

 

 

Except for the Bills, those are all one game samples, except for SF which was two. Not large enough to be at all significant.

 

More, all but one of those games were KC wins. If there's one thing we know about them it's that when they're behind, especially in the playoffs, they come on and tend to score a lot, and when ahead or not worried, they just aren't as sharp. 

 

The KC offense did what they had to do, in all those games except the loss to the Bengals

 

The Bills offense when hitting on all cylinders has forced the Chiefs offense to rise to the challenge in a way that those other teams just haven't, again with the exception of the game the Bengals won, and honestly it just looked to me like the Bengals D played really well, but at the same time they benefitted with Mahomes just NOT playing well. 

 

YPP is to a very large extent just a factor of how much a team runs. It's also wildly variant depending on how many or few big plays they get; now over a season that'll even out, but over just one or two or three games if one DB falls down on one play, the YPP can jump up an amount that for YPP is a LOT. YPP just doesn't say much when looking such small samples. There's a real question whether it says much of anything, really, beyond whether a team is running more or throwing more.

 

Again, the Bills D hasn't done well against the Chiefs in the playoffs, although last year they really weren't too bad. I'm not arguing they've been good against KC.

 

But the whole "Bills D sucks in the playoffs" thing just isn't true. Except against KC the Bills D has been quite good. And not a lot of defenses HAVE done well against KC in the playoffs ... that's kind of a lot of the reason they've won so many Super Bowls recently.

 

 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Except for the Bills, those are all one game samples, except for SF which was two. Not large enough to be at all significant.

 

More, all but one of those games were KC wins. If there's one thing we know about them it's that when they're behind, especially in the playoffs, they come on and tend to score a lot, and when ahead or not worried, they just aren't as sharp. 

 

The KC offense did what they had to do, in all those games except the loss to the Bengals

 

The Bills offense when hitting on all cylinders has forced the Chiefs offense to rise to the challenge in a way that those other teams just haven't, again with the exception of the game the Bengals won, and honestly it just looked to me like the Bengals D played really well, but at the same time they benefitted with Mahomes just NOT playing well. 

 

YPP is to a very large extent just a factor of how much a team runs. It's also wildly variant depending on how many or few big plays they get; now over a season that'll even out, but over just one or two or three games if one DB falls down on one play, the YPP can jump up an amount that for YPP is a LOT. YPP just doesn't say much when looking such small samples. There's a real question whether it says much of anything, really, beyond whether a team is running more or throwing more.

 

Again, the Bills D hasn't done well against the Chiefs in the playoffs, although last year they really weren't too bad. I'm not arguing they've been good against KC.

 

But the whole "Bills D sucks in the playoffs" thing just isn't true. Except against KC the Bills D has been quite good. And not a lot of defenses HAVE done well against KC in the playoffs ... that's kind of a lot of the reason they've won so many Super Bowls recently.

 

 

Wrong 

Bengals have also played them twice

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

You missed out on the Eagles, they traded a 1st (and 4th?) for AJ Brown

You also have to compare the decisions teams made despite already having talent at WR.

Bengals had Boyd and Higgins and still drafted Chase.

Chiefs had Tyreek Hill and Kelce and still drafted Hardman.

Niners got Pearsall on top of Aiyuk and Deebo.

Meanwhile Bills didn't draft a WR until Keon, but after they already got rid of Diggs (and Davis)

 

 

Fair enough about AJ Brown and the Eagles. Good catch. Thanks for pointing out my mistake, I sincerely appreciate it.

 

But even accounting for that, the Eagles are still not all that different from the Bills since 2017.

 

And no, you absolutely do NOT have to compare the decisions teams made despite already having talent at WR. That evens out over long periods of time. They draft someone high, then they're not as likely to do so for a while. After they haven't, then they will tend to do that. That all evens out over time.

 

Yeah, the Bills waited till they got rid of Diggs. But that came early and unexpected. When they still had him, they well should have felt more comfortable.  But again, last year the Bills had Diggs, and they still picked Kincaid. Might they not have picked Keon if they still had Diggs? Yeah, maybe, who knows.

 

The somewhat nutty idea I was replying to was that "They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2." And no, that's nuts, nobody does that.

 

All of your exceptions there, I believe, are accounted for since 2017. The need goes up and down for everybody.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

13 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Wrong 

Bengals have also played them twice

 

 

DOH!!!! You're exactly right. Wow, that's twice within a few posts I've screwed up. Thank you, seriously, for correcting me there. I really do appreciate it!!

 

Having said that, two games is not statistically significant in terms of these stats.

 

Cincy DID win one of those games, the only one of the teams he suggested that did. Again, looked to me like Mahomes just had a bad game that day. Wanna say that some of that was caused by Cincy's D? Well, it's a reasonable conjecture. Looked to me more like Mahomes just not having it, but impossible to prove either way.

 

In the other game, KC never trailed. Kept getting a lead, giving it up and going back into the lead. Cincy's offense just never made KC sweat, or that's what it looked like to me.

[harmonkillebrew]

Wider point is that Beane and McD seem to undervalue WRs compared to other top teams. The Bills draft capital investment has been skewed toward DE. 

Is that right strategy? Hasn't gotten us to the SB or even AFCC, except once. 

Despite it, they again this past year they subtracted more than they added. 

[GoBills808]

9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

DOH!!!! You're exactly right. Wow, that's twice within a few posts I've screwed up. Thank you, seriously, for correcting me there. I really do appreciate it!!

 

Having said that, two games is not statistically significant in terms of these stats.

 

Cincy DID win one of those games, the only one of the teams he suggested that did. Again, looked to me like Mahomes just had a bad game that day. Wanna say that some of that was caused by Cincy's D? Well, it's a reasonable conjecture. Looked to me more like Mahomes just not having it, but impossible to prove either way.

 

In the other game, KC never trailed. Kept getting a lead, giving it up and going back into the lead. Cincy's offense just never made KC sweat, or that's what it looked like to me.

No worries

I know that you know the Bengals have played them twice and just forgot

 

I'm using this to illustrate the point that other teams don't in fact struggle stopping the Chiefs to the extent that we do. And that if they had our playoff offense (or we their playoff defense) this current Chiefs dynasty wouldn't really exist

[QB Bills]

59 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Except for the Bills, those are all one game samples, except for SF which was two. Not large enough to be at all significant.

 

More, all but one of those games were KC wins. If there's one thing we know about them it's that when they're behind, especially in the playoffs, they come on and tend to score a lot, and when ahead or not worried, they just aren't as sharp. 

 

The KC offense did what they had to do, in all those games except the loss to the Bengals

 

The Bills offense when hitting on all cylinders has forced the Chiefs offense to rise to the challenge in a way that those other teams just haven't, again with the exception of the game the Bengals won, and honestly it just looked to me like the Bengals D played really well, but at the same time they benefitted with Mahomes just NOT playing well. 

 

YPP is to a very large extent just a factor of how much a team runs. It's also wildly variant depending on how many or few big plays they get; now over a season that'll even out, but over just one or two or three games if one DB falls down on one play, the YPP can jump up an amount that for YPP is a LOT. YPP just doesn't say much when looking such small samples. There's a real question whether it says much of anything, really, beyond whether a team is running more or throwing more.

 

Again, the Bills D hasn't done well against the Chiefs in the playoffs, although last year they really weren't too bad. I'm not arguing they've been good against KC.

 

But the whole "Bills D sucks in the playoffs" thing just isn't true. Except against KC the Bills D has been quite good. And not a lot of defenses HAVE done well against KC in the playoffs ... that's kind of a lot of the reason they've won so many Super Bowls recently.

 

 

This is the most unintentionally funny post I've read here in a while.

 

I think we've found Sean McDermott's secret TBD account.

[BigDingus]

On 8/22/2024 at 3:25 PM, harmonkillebrew said:

You missed out on the Eagles, they traded a 1st (and 4th?) for AJ Brown

You also have to compare the decisions teams made despite already having talent at WR.

Bengals had Boyd and Higgins and still drafted Chase.

Chiefs had Tyreek Hill and Kelce and still drafted Hardman.

Niners got Pearsall on top of Aiyuk and Deebo.

Meanwhile Bills didn't draft a WR until Keon, but after they already got rid of Diggs (and Davis)

 

Exactly. Lets not forget that the 49ers also were smart enough to trade for CMC, even with their existing weapons. The Bills seemed fine just passing up on elite offensive talent after acquiring Diggs.

[Boatdrinks]

On 8/22/2024 at 3:17 PM, GoBills808 said:

Bengals defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 23.4 ppg against, allow 5.5 ypp

Niners defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 28 ppg against, allow 5.55 ypp

Ravens defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 17 ppg against, allow 4.4 ypp

 

...Bills defense vs Chiefs offense in playoffs- 35.6 ppg against, allow 7.4 ypp

 

 

This pretty much says it all. KC didn’t score vs Ravens in 2nd half of AFCC. Would have loved to see that in Buffalo last January. 

[Nephilim17]

Every fan has the right to feel what they will but it's a lot less stressful going into the season with no expectations. If they play well, great. If not, it's a rebuilding year and maybe it spurs some roster (or management) changes that many of us want.

 

Tying your happiness to a sports team is a losing bet. 

I say now in the off-season.

[Mikie2times]

On 8/22/2024 at 9:36 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, our defense has been damn good in the playoffs when not playing the Chiefs. And who in this period has been good against the Chiefs offense? Or the Bills offense for that matter? Unfortunately, the Chiefs comparatively healthy D last year finally did a pretty good job against our offense at the same time that our deeply and comprehensively injured D finally did a pretty good job against the Chiefs, but not good enough. 

 

Our OL was better than the Chiefs last year, and not by a little. They had tackle issues most of the year. If healthy they could take a major jump up again, but we'll have to see.

 

The whole "quietly got better" at WR thing for us this year? No, you're dead right on that. It's wishful thinking. They could well be a solid group though, particularly when you throw in Kincaid and give the young guys time to develop early in the season, but they're building. It's what happens when changing situations make jettisoning a guy like Diggs your best option.

 

Yeah, the Chiefs will be competing for a threepeat this year. So will we. They have a better shot than us, no question, but we're still in there competing with a legit chance.

 

They did it last year by working hard on their D in a year when their O had problems.

 

 

This is so off base. 

 

-Houston in 2019, we had a great first half before allowing 19 second half points. 

-Colts in 2020, did anything they wanted against us. 27 first downs and nearly 500 yards allowed

-Ravens in 2020, it was a wind storm. Josh could barely do anything in it. Count this if you want

-Patriots in 2021, Mac Jones

-Dolphins in 2022, Skyler Thompson

-Bengals in 2022, rolled over us without most the starting offensive line

-Steelers in 2023, Mason Rudolph

 

We played 3 games without facing a starting caliber NFL QB and sure, we did good in those games. Not great in most, good.

We played 4 games facing a starting caliber QB and got crushed in two, crapped our pants in the 2nd half in one, and did great in a hurricane in the other

 

We are the wild card champions of the NFL. That is all we proved. It has nothing to do with KC.  

[JohninMinn.]

I'd rather go 5-12 than lose wide right or 13 seconds or 4 Super Bowls in a row.

[y2zipper]

On 8/23/2024 at 9:17 AM, harmonkillebrew said:

Wider point is that Beane and McD seem to undervalue WRs compared to other top teams. The Bills draft capital investment has been skewed toward DE. 

Is that right strategy? Hasn't gotten us to the SB or even AFCC, except once. 

Despite it, they again this past year they subtracted more than they added. 

 

The issue is that they haven't hit, so on top of all the drafting they gave Von Miller a huge contract too.

[warrior9]

5 minutes ago, y2zipper said:

 

The issue is that they haven't hit, so on top of all the drafting they gave Von Miller a huge contract too.

I don't think it's that they undervalue WR, they just see a LOT more value in beefing up a team around Josh when you have him. Mahomes has won the SB with subpar WR twice. Josh is on the same level, the coaching is not.