BigDingus Posted August 21 Posted August 21 It's just sad that compared to the Chiefs, we are getting further from where we want to be. The Chiefs invested heavily in OL a while back, now they've got a great group locked down protecting Mahomes. And despite being known for offense, they then built up a defense that ended up 2nd in the league while also being the 2nd YOUNGEST. Yet our defensive-minded HC, who's invested many early round picks & a ton of money in defense, is looking at rebuilding a gutted, often-injured unit that achieved nothing in the post-season for years. So they already out-scored us, then they surpassed us in D, all while getting younger, protecting their QB, keeping elite players, and having a better cap situation than us? And I'm supposed to be believe we "quietly got better?" Surely these WRs - a couple mid-level guys, under-achievers & one 2nd rd rookie, our "next-man-up" D, and the same HC will do better this year, right? Sure, the cap situation will be improved NEXT year, and we will have NEXT draft to acquire more young guys, but it's not like other teams stay frozen in time. During our transitional year, the Chiefs will be contending for a SB threepeat. It bums me out, but there's still hope for the future. We just have to find a way to leap-frog the Chiefs, not just keep pace behind them. Oh, and also hold back other ascending/contending teams like the Ravens, Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, Jags, etc. 3 Quote
folz Posted August 21 Posted August 21 19 hours ago, balln said: You’re not crazy. I really don’t know why more teams try this. Sacrifice 1 year for 3-4 prime. Just make up an injury. Spare me the honor / love of the game crap I Mean. It’s not even close . Leanings - more like egregious imbalance. They spend a TON of their free agent $ on defense. And the top 1-4 rounds of picks are heavily slanted on D 2 hours ago, NewEra said: Is it really? How so? Have any numbers to prove this? I’d love to see your math on “heavily slanted” You know I like to look things up... -Since Beane has been the GM (2018-2024 drafts), the Bills have made 55 total draft picks. 28 picks were on the offensive side; 25 picks on the defensive side; and 2 Special Teamers In the first 4 rounds (as mentioned in the posts above), there were 12 offensive players selected and 12 defensive players selected. In the first 3 rounds: there were 10 offensive players selected and 11 defensive players selected. Here is a breakdown by round: Rd Offense Defense ST 1st 2 4 2nd 4 3 3rd 4 4 4th 2 1 5th 6 4 6th 5 5 2 7th 5 4 Pretty balanced throughout. The only place you could say there was an imbalance maybe is in round one, but really, it's just one pick. If one of those first round defensive players was an offensive pick instead, it would be 3 to 3. And you'll also see that that is the only round where the defense has more picks. Every other round is either even or the offense got more picks. 1 1 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 21 Posted August 21 15 minutes ago, folz said: You know I like to look things up... -Since Beane has been the GM (2018-2024 drafts), the Bills have made 55 total draft picks. 28 picks were on the offensive side; 25 picks on the defensive side; and 2 Special Teamers In the first 4 rounds (as mentioned in the posts above), there were 12 offensive players selected and 12 defensive players selected. In the first 3 rounds: there were 10 offensive players selected and 11 defensive players selected. Here is a breakdown by round: Rd Offense Defense ST 1st 2 4 2nd 4 3 3rd 4 4 4th 2 1 5th 6 4 6th 5 5 2 7th 5 4 Pretty balanced throughout. The only place you could say there was an imbalance maybe is in round one, but really, it's just one pick. If one of those first round defensive players was an offensive pick instead, it would be 3 to 3. And you'll also see that that is the only round where the defense has more picks. Every other round is either even or the offense got more picks. since drafting Allen there has been an imbalance in the weighted value of their picks. I added up all the values and it heavily favored defense but tbh you can see it just by looking at the draft history page- after taking Allen the next four years' worth of top picks in the draft went defense/defense/defense/defense. I'm not sure another team after taking their franchise QB has done anything like that 1 Quote
NewEra Posted August 21 Posted August 21 1 hour ago, GoBills808 said: since drafting Allen there has been an imbalance in the weighted value of their picks. I added up all the values and it heavily favored defense but tbh you can see it just by looking at the draft history page- after taking Allen the next four years' worth of top picks in the draft went defense/defense/defense/defense. I'm not sure another team after taking their franchise QB has done anything like that But you don’t include Diggs as a top pick? You use AJ epenesa? 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 21 Posted August 21 Just now, NewEra said: But you don’t include Diggs as a top pick? You use AJ epenesa? We didn't draft Diggs, altho if we take the value of the pick we traded to Vikes the numbers get closer. Still leans toward defense however Quote
Orlando Buffalo Posted August 21 Posted August 21 On 8/20/2024 at 8:15 AM, JaCrispy said: I remember, for years, I couldn’t get enough camp info from wgr, or podcasts, over the summer…Every half hour update on the radio about trades or signings, or how Josh did at the latest practice… We were an ascending team, and I was so high, knowing the sky was the limit… Well, it looks like we may have reached our ceiling…And it sucks knowing that we clearly aren’t as good as we were when we were Super Bowl contenders… I know the transition to a younger, cheaper team had to be done…And, with that said, I originally predicted a record of 9-8, and missing the playoffs- especially with that schedule…woof! However, if injuries continue to mount, I could easily see us getting a top 15 pick in the draft next year- which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing… Imo, this team desperately needs an infusion of top end talent, to get back to where we were 2 years ago…Really hoping we keep both our 2nd rounders instead of trading up with them….👍 But there is hope…If all goes well, and the moves the FO has made the last few years pan out, I could see us being legit Super Bowl contenders again in a year or two… I generally agree with you but this is very short sighted. We know what we have in Josh and therefore just need to have to make matchup issues for any defense. Detroit used to need Megatron because the QB was bad but Josh will throw for 4000 yards with 4 good receivers as well as 1 stud and 4 hanger ons. On 8/20/2024 at 8:15 AM, JaCrispy said: I remember, for years, I couldn’t get enough camp info from wgr, or podcasts, over the summer…Every half hour update on the radio about trades or signings, or how Josh did at the latest practice… We were an ascending team, and I was so high, knowing the sky was the limit… Well, it looks like we may have reached our ceiling…And it sucks knowing that we clearly aren’t as good as we were when we were Super Bowl contenders… I know the transition to a younger, cheaper team had to be done…And, with that said, I originally predicted a record of 9-8, and missing the playoffs- especially with that schedule…woof! However, if injuries continue to mount, I could easily see us getting a top 15 pick in the draft next year- which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing… Imo, this team desperately needs an infusion of top end talent, to get back to where we were 2 years ago…Really hoping we keep both our 2nd rounders instead of trading up with them….👍 But there is hope…If all goes well, and the moves the FO has made the last few years pan out, I could see us being legit Super Bowl contenders again in a year or two… I generally agree with you but this is very short sighted. We know what we have in Josh and therefore just need to have to make matchup issues for any defense. Detroit used to need Megatron because the QB was bad but Josh will throw for 4000 yards with 4 good receivers as well as 1 stud and 4 hanger ons. Quote
Chicken Boo Posted August 21 Posted August 21 This team has no chance of winning the Super Bowl. Knowing that should be a bit of a relief. Just enjoy the season for what it is. There's no great expectations here. 1 1 Quote
Mikie2times Posted August 21 Posted August 21 McD has been great at fundamental football and it's led to a competitive team nearly every year he has been here. Beane makes savvy moves on the regular. Both seem to be above average in the role they play. With that said, neither has shown an ability to excel at the higher levels. McD shrivels in the playoffs and Beane shrivels when it comes to adding impact players. How you could form any other conclusion is beyond me. We knew we had a franchise changing QB in 2019 and we are going backwards. We will make the playoffs more likely than not and sure, you could argue at that point anything could happen. But it's hard to believe that is how things will play out when we can't rise to the level of competition in our leadership roles. Being good enough is more of a curse than a blessing. No change happens as a result and you also never get any further. 2 2 Quote
folz Posted August 22 Posted August 22 (edited) 2 hours ago, GoBills808 said: since drafting Allen there has been an imbalance in the weighted value of their picks. I added up all the values and it heavily favored defense but tbh you can see it just by looking at the draft history page- after taking Allen the next four years' worth of top picks in the draft went defense/defense/defense/defense. I'm not sure another team after taking their franchise QB has done anything like that Fair enough, with the picks after Josh. If you include Tremaine (in the same draft as Josh) our #1 picks after Josh have been defense/defense/defense/defense/offense. Now, if you include Josh and the 2nd rounders it is 7 defense and 6 offense, but yes, even with Josh I can see the defensive players being of a higher weighted value overall. I guess to be fair (based on where each player was drafted), we'd have to go back and look at each #1 defensive pick and see if there was a different offensive player that at the time was considered even or better (and to a lesser extent, filled a need for the team at the time). And is there a trend...did that happen with every one of those picks? Also, are we so sure that it is McDermott's influence alone for the defensive picks? Therefore labeling that as a reason for not hiring a defensive coach? Or did Brandon and his scouts just believe they were picking the best player on their board at the time? For instance, Rousseau seems like a very-Brandon pick (raw, high-ceiling guy). I know the reality is probably somewhere in between, sort of a consensus where McDermott did have a lot of input, I just don't know if I wouldn't hire a good defensive coach for the fear that he's only going to draft defensive players with his top picks. And though we didn't draft Diggs, that was a #1 draft pick that was used to acquire offensive talent, as NewEra pointed out. A WR for Josh Allen. So, it can't be completely discounted when saying, "no other team does that after drafting a franchise QB." if you include Josh and the pick for Diggs as an offensive acquisition, the #1 picks look like this. offense/defense/defense/offense/defense/defense/offense---3 to 4. So, I do concede your point, I think some of us just push back against the extremes of "we only pick defense" or "we pick way more defensive players," "we only use assets on the defense," etc. Edited August 22 by folz 1 Quote
Billsflyer12 Posted August 22 Posted August 22 2 hours ago, folz said: You know I like to look things up... -Since Beane has been the GM (2018-2024 drafts), the Bills have made 55 total draft picks. 28 picks were on the offensive side; 25 picks on the defensive side; and 2 Special Teamers In the first 4 rounds (as mentioned in the posts above), there were 12 offensive players selected and 12 defensive players selected. In the first 3 rounds: there were 10 offensive players selected and 11 defensive players selected. Here is a breakdown by round: Rd Offense Defense ST 1st 2 4 2nd 4 3 3rd 4 4 4th 2 1 5th 6 4 6th 5 5 2 7th 5 4 Pretty balanced throughout. The only place you could say there was an imbalance maybe is in round one, but really, it's just one pick. If one of those first round defensive players was an offensive pick instead, it would be 3 to 3. And you'll also see that that is the only round where the defense has more picks. Every other round is either even or the offense got more picks. 10 offensive picks in 1st 3 rounds and Keon is only WR drafted. They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2. The Bills under GMBB and HCSM still haven’t drafted a WR in the 1st round. Its crazy that they have drafted 3 times more RBs in rounds 1-3 then WRs. They have neglected weapons for Josh. Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles and 49ers all have attempted or have collected multiple top WRs. 1 1 1 Quote
first_and_ten Posted August 22 Posted August 22 On 8/20/2024 at 8:15 AM, JaCrispy said: I remember, for years, I couldn’t get enough camp info from wgr, or podcasts, over the summer…Every half hour update on the radio about trades or signings, or how Josh did at the latest practice… We were an ascending team, and I was so high, knowing the sky was the limit… Well, it looks like we may have reached our ceiling…And it sucks knowing that we clearly aren’t as good as we were when we were Super Bowl contenders… I know the transition to a younger, cheaper team had to be done…And, with that said, I originally predicted a record of 9-8, and missing the playoffs- especially with that schedule…woof! However, if injuries continue to mount, I could easily see us getting a top 15 pick in the draft next year- which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing… Imo, this team desperately needs an infusion of top end talent, to get back to where we were 2 years ago…Really hoping we keep both our 2nd rounders instead of trading up with them….👍 But there is hope…If all goes well, and the moves the FO has made the last few years pan out, I could see us being legit Super Bowl contenders again in a year or two… Honestly, I think the plan is to retool next year. This year they shed a lot of salary cap and will take a step back. The only way they don't step back is if Josh has an MVP type year. 1 Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 22 Posted August 22 2 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said: 10 offensive picks in 1st 3 rounds and Keon is only WR drafted. They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2. The Bills under GMBB and HCSM still haven’t drafted a WR in the 1st round. Its crazy that they have drafted 3 times more RBs in rounds 1-3 then WRs. They have neglected weapons for Josh. Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles and 49ers all have attempted or have collected multiple top WRs. Most teams w franchise type guys have...ravens, chargers, dolphins, jags just did it etc etc 41 minutes ago, folz said: Fair enough, with the picks after Josh. If you include Tremaine (in the same draft as Josh) our #1 picks after Josh have been defense/defense/defense/defense/offense. Now, if you include Josh and the 2nd rounders it is 7 defense and 6 offense, but yes, even with Josh I can see the defensive players being of a higher weighted value overall. I guess to be fair (based on where each player was drafted), we'd have to go back and look at each #1 defensive pick and see if there was a different offensive player that at the time was considered even or better (and to a lesser extent, filled a need for the team at the time). And is there a trend...did that happen with every one of those picks? Also, are we so sure that it is McDermott's influence alone for the defensive picks? Therefore labeling that as a reason for not hiring a defensive coach? Or did Brandon and his scouts just believe they were picking the best player on their board at the time? For instance, Rousseau seems like a very-Brandon pick (raw, high-ceiling guy). I know the reality is probably somewhere in between, sort of a consensus where McDermott did have a lot of input, I just don't know if I wouldn't hire a good defensive coach for the fear that he's only going to draft defensive players with his top picks. And though we didn't draft Diggs, that was a #1 draft pick that was used to acquire offensive talent, as NewEra pointed out. A WR for Josh Allen. So, it can't be completely discounted when saying, "no other team does that after drafting a franchise QB." if you include Josh and the pick for Diggs as an offensive acquisition, the #1 picks look like this. offense/defense/defense/offense/defense/defense/offense---3 to 4. So, I do concede your point, I think some of us just push back against the extremes of "we only pick defense" or "we pick way more defensive players," "we only use assets on the defense," etc. I wouldn't say we use only assets on th defense, I would say the defense typically gets priority Havent laid blame for that on anyone in particular, at least not in this thread that I can remember Quote
NewEra Posted August 22 Posted August 22 1 hour ago, GoBills808 said: We didn't draft Diggs, altho if we take the value of the pick we traded to Vikes the numbers get closer. Still leans toward defense however lol. Ok man- we used a 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th on Diggs and a 7th. The side of the fence you’re standing on is the reason you don’t consider this. To each their own. Poor way to see this Quote
GoBills808 Posted August 22 Posted August 22 16 minutes ago, NewEra said: lol. Ok man- we used a 1st, 4th, 5th and 6th on Diggs and a 7th. The side of the fence you’re standing on is the reason you don’t consider this. To each their own. Poor way to see this The guy I replied to was literally talking about draft picks 1 Quote
NewEra Posted August 22 Posted August 22 (edited) 12 hours ago, GoBills808 said: The guy I replied to was literally talking about draft picks you also replied to me- and I was quoting this “ It’s not even close . Leanings - more like egregious imbalance. They spend a TON of their free agent $ on defense. And the top 1-4 rounds of picks are heavily slanted on D” Yes…. And we literally used those draft picks to get a WR- we USED 4 picks to get 1 WR and 1 lesser pick. He didn’t say use draft picks to draft defensive players. He said the top 4 rounds of picks are heavily slanted on D. This conversation is about resource allocation and how we allocate more in defense. Heavily more. We allocated those 4 picks for 1 WR. Yet, you don’t consider them. And it’s ridiculous edit: I do agree that I wish we would have used more resources on WR- but the draft pick allocation isn’t as heavily slanted as is perceived by some. Edited August 22 by NewEra Quote
Buffalo Ballin Posted August 22 Posted August 22 2 hours ago, Chicken Boo said: This team has no chance of winning the Super Bowl. Knowing that should be a bit of a relief. Just enjoy the season for what it is. There's no great expectations here. Let all of us echo this sentiment for this upcoming season. Our defense is terrible. We should be happy JUST to make Wildcard Weekend. Quote
Thurman#1 Posted August 22 Posted August 22 On 8/20/2024 at 9:15 PM, JaCrispy said: I remember, for years, I couldn’t get enough camp info from wgr, or podcasts, over the summer…Every half hour update on the radio about trades or signings, or how Josh did at the latest practice… We were an ascending team, and I was so high, knowing the sky was the limit… Well, it looks like we may have reached our ceiling…And it sucks knowing that we clearly aren’t as good as we were when we were Super Bowl contenders… I know the transition to a younger, cheaper team had to be done…And, with that said, I originally predicted a record of 9-8, and missing the playoffs- especially with that schedule…woof! However, if injuries continue to mount, I could easily see us getting a top 15 pick in the draft next year- which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing… Imo, this team desperately needs an infusion of top end talent, to get back to where we were 2 years ago…Really hoping we keep both our 2nd rounders instead of trading up with them….👍 But there is hope…If all goes well, and the moves the FO has made the last few years pan out, I could see us being legit Super Bowl contenders again in a year or two… Top 15 pick? Jeez. Possible, but very unlikely IMO. Again, Vegas has us as 6th and 7th favorites depending on the outlets. 9-8 is a bit more likely but still significantly against the odds, says me. And, as I mentioned, Vegas. 20% chance, maybe? 30%? Could happen, especially with many more injuries and especially if Allen is one of them. But that's significantly pessimistic, I think, Ja. Quote
Thurman#1 Posted August 22 Posted August 22 12 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said: 10 offensive picks in 1st 3 rounds and Keon is only WR drafted. They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2. The Bills under GMBB and HCSM still haven’t drafted a WR in the 1st round. Its crazy that they have drafted 3 times more RBs in rounds 1-3 then WRs. They have neglected weapons for Josh. Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles and 49ers all have attempted or have collected multiple top WRs. Nah. Not so. You said, "They should have been drafting one in almost every draft in days 1 and 2," and actually nobody does that. The Bills have used a first (Diggs) and traded another 1st back to a very early second (Keon) and a 2nd for Zay Jones in 2017. The Chiefs used a 1st in 2019 for Mecole, a 1st for Worthy this year and a 2nd for Skyy Moore in 2022, and that also goes all the way back to 2017. Pretending those are more than very slightly different is flat-out ridiculous. The Bengals used a 2024 3rd for Jermaine Burton, a 2021 1st for Chase, a 2020 2nd for Higgins and a 2017 1st for John Ross. That's a difference, basically, of one 3rd rounder more, in eight years of drafting. The difference is that they sucked and so had a 5 pick to use on Chase. #5s are more likely to be dominant than the late rounders. The Eagles? A 1st in 2021 (DeVonta) and 2020 (Raegor), a 3rd in 2019 (Arcega-Whiteside). That's it since 2017. Again, extremely comparable to the Bills. 9ers? A 2024 1st in Pearsall, a 2023 3rd (Danny Gray), a 2020 1st in Aiyuk and a 2019 2nd in Deebo and 3rd in Jalen Hurd. And a 2018 2nd in Dante Pettis. That's more than the Bills. The Bills thought they had Diggs again this year. When they didn't, guess what, they targeted an early WR. This is how teams work, they look at what they need, and they hope for needs to meet what's available when they pick, and sometimes that happens and sometimes it doesn't. When you only look at two or three years you're deeply bending what you're looking at, because of a low sample size. 3 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted August 22 Posted August 22 (edited) 17 hours ago, BigDingus said: It's just sad that compared to the Chiefs, we are getting further from where we want to be. The Chiefs invested heavily in OL a while back, now they've got a great group locked down protecting Mahomes. And despite being known for offense, they then built up a defense that ended up 2nd in the league while also being the 2nd YOUNGEST. Yet our defensive-minded HC, who's invested many early round picks & a ton of money in defense, is looking at rebuilding a gutted, often-injured unit that achieved nothing in the post-season for years. So they already out-scored us, then they surpassed us in D, all while getting younger, protecting their QB, keeping elite players, and having a better cap situation than us? And I'm supposed to be believe we "quietly got better?" Surely these WRs - a couple mid-level guys, under-achievers & one 2nd rd rookie, our "next-man-up" D, and the same HC will do better this year, right? Sure, the cap situation will be improved NEXT year, and we will have NEXT draft to acquire more young guys, but it's not like other teams stay frozen in time. During our transitional year, the Chiefs will be contending for a SB threepeat. It bums me out, but there's still hope for the future. We just have to find a way to leap-frog the Chiefs, not just keep pace behind them. Oh, and also hold back other ascending/contending teams like the Ravens, Texans, Dolphins, Bengals, Jags, etc. Again, our defense has been damn good in the playoffs when not playing the Chiefs. And who in this period has been good against the Chiefs offense? Or the Bills offense for that matter? Unfortunately, the Chiefs comparatively healthy D last year finally did a pretty good job against our offense at the same time that our deeply and comprehensively injured D finally did a pretty good job against the Chiefs, but not good enough. Our OL was better than the Chiefs last year, and not by a little. They had tackle issues most of the year. If healthy they could take a major jump up again, but we'll have to see. The whole "quietly got better" at WR thing for us this year? No, you're dead right on that. It's wishful thinking. They could well be a solid group though, particularly when you throw in Kincaid and give the young guys time to develop early in the season, but they're building. It's what happens when changing situations make jettisoning a guy like Diggs your best option. Yeah, the Chiefs will be competing for a threepeat this year. So will we. They have a better shot than us, no question, but we're still in there competing with a legit chance. They did it last year by working hard on their D in a year when their O had problems. Edited August 22 by Thurman#1 4 1 Quote
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